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    Dell Technologies (DELL)

    DELL Q2 2026: Raises AI server guidance to $20B with $11.7B backlog

    Reported on Aug 29, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$134.05Last close (Aug 28, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$134.05Last close (Aug 28, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.00(0.00%)
    • Robust AI Growth and Order Backlog: Dell raised its full‐year AI server shipment guidance from $15B to $20B, delivered record AI server shipments in Q2, and built an impressive backlog of $11.7B, demonstrating strong demand and capacity to scale in the high-growth AI market.
    • Margin Improvement Through Mix Shifts and Cost Efficiency: With the transition to higher-margin Dell IP storage and traditional server products—and with one‑time supply chain costs in Q2 not recurring—Dell is well positioned for improved gross margins and profitability in the second half, especially in Q4.
    • Expanding Enterprise Adoption and Customer Base: Dell is experiencing significant enterprise momentum, posting its eighth consecutive quarter of buyer base growth with rising POC conversions and strong deployments across various industries, which sets the stage for continued market share gains.
    • Weak demand in core segments: North American traditional server demand remained weak, partly due to reduced federal spending, which could pressure overall revenue growth and margins.
    • Margin dilution from AI mix: The increased reliance on lower-margin AI server business—coupled with one-time supply chain expense impacts—raises concerns about sustained profitability if the mix does not improve as anticipated.
    • Supply chain risks: Ongoing supply chain complexities and expedited material costs, even if partially one-time, signal potential vulnerabilities that may negatively affect future cost control and margins.
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    AI Server Growth

    In Q1, strong demand was reported with $12.1 billion in orders and notable product innovations. In Q3, robust shipments and product innovation (e.g., new AI server models) were highlighted. Q4 discussions also noted steady growth in orders and shipments.

    Q2 reported record shipments of $8.2 billion and raised full‑year guidance from $15 billion to $20 billion, with strong enterprise demand driven by solutions like NVIDIA RTX Pro 6000.

    Consistent robust growth with sustained, bullish demand across periods.

    Order Backlog

    Q1 noted a $14.4 billion backlog while Q3 and Q4 highlighted backlogs in the $4.1–$4.5 billion range, reflecting strong customer interest.

    Q2 reported an $11.7 billion backlog enriched with Blackwell products, indicating continued healthy demand.

    A healthy backlog maintained across periods, showing steady demand.

    Pipeline Expansion

    Q1 discussions mentioned a pipeline that was multiples of the backlog, and Q3 and Q4 also emphasized sequential pipeline growth with expanding enterprise opportunities.

    Q2 noted double‑digit pipeline expansion with continued enterprise and sovereign opportunities, reinforcing expectations of converting the pipeline into incremental orders.

    Consistent and growing pipeline, reinforcing a bullish outlook.

    Margin Dynamics with Mix Shifts

    Q1 indicated margin pressure from a higher AI server mix and competitive pricing. Q3 noted that AI servers, while gross dollar accretive, were margin dilutive. In Q4, margin pressures were discussed alongside efforts to improve profitability through supply chain efficiencies and Dell IP storage.

    Q2 highlighted that the significant shift toward AI servers diluted overall margin rates due to aggressive pricing and supply chain costs, though management expects margin improvement in the second half.

    Recurring challenges of margin dilution from AI mix, with management optimism about improvement; overall mixed sentiment.

    Persistent Supply Chain Risks

    Q1 did not mention supply chain risks [N/A]. In Q3, there were references to component availability challenges for new platforms and a reaffirmation of global resilience. Q4 emphasized Dell’s industry-leading, agile supply chain that mitigates trade issues.

    Q2 focused on deflationary input costs and one‑time supply chain reconfiguration costs for NVIDIA GB 200 deployments while underscoring effective management and resilience in navigating tariffs and regulations.

    Consistent focus on supply chain resilience with effective management strategies; sentiment remains stable and confident.

    Dell IP Storage Solutions

    Q1 discussions emphasized efforts to boost the mix of Dell IP storage and capture more value, with double‑digit growth in PowerStore and related products. Q3 mentioned competitive positioning of PowerScale and innovation initiatives, while Q4 highlighted strong demand growth and market share gains.

    Q2 emphasized an aggressive expansion of Dell IP storage, noting double‑digit growth in PowerStore, ongoing portfolio performance improvements, and a new automation platform aimed at capturing market share.

    A consistent and positive trend in expanding Dell IP storage solutions with a bullish, market share–gaining outlook.

    Competitive Pricing Pressures

    Q1 noted that aggressive pricing, especially in the CSG segment, impacted margins. Q3 reiterated competitive pressures in consumer segments, and Q4 mentioned continued competitive pricing impacting operating income.

    Q2 did not specifically discuss competitive pricing pressures [N/A].

    Recurring concern in earlier periods; though not mentioned in Q2, it remains a factor managed alongside other elements.

    Weakness in Traditional Server and Storage Demand

    In Q1, there was mention of a slowdown in North American traditional server demand with cautious commentary. Q3 noted lagging overall storage demand along with some server challenges , while Q4 reported strong traditional server growth with some headwinds in storage.

    Q2 reported continued weakness in North America's traditional server demand and a 3% decline in storage revenue, though opportunities in server consolidation and upgrades were noted.

    Persistent challenges in traditional server and storage demand in key regions with cautious optimism for consolidation and upgrade opportunities; mixed sentiment.

    PC Refresh Cycle Impact on CSG Revenue

    Q1 discussed a delayed PC refresh cycle with strong commercial performance but weak consumer results. Q3 and Q4 highlighted a significant delay in the refresh cycle negatively impacting CSG revenue, while also pointing to eventual opportunities driven by Windows 10 EOL.

    Q2 detailed that the impending Windows 10 end‑of‑life (48 days away) is expected to drive a major PC refresh, with the opportunity likely extending into calendar year 2026.

    Ongoing delay in the refresh cycle remains a challenge, but emerging catalysts (Windows 10 EOL) provide a cautiously optimistic future outlook.

    Operational Excellence and Rapid Deployment

    Q1 emphasized strong capabilities in rapid deployment and installation services, while Q3 highlighted operational excellence with fast, rack‑scale integrations; Q4 lacked specific mentions on this theme.

    Q2 underscored emerging operational excellence and rapid deployment capabilities, particularly in AI clusters and large‑scale infrastructure deployments.

    Increasing focus and positive developments in operational excellence and rapid deployment across periods, further cementing competitive differentiation.

    Tariff and Trade Regulation Uncertainties

    In Q1, it was noted that list prices remained unchanged despite tariff challenges. Q3 focused on global supply chain resiliency amid trade uncertainties, and Q4 provided detailed commentary on using digital tools and pricing adjustments to manage a dynamic environment.

    Q2 stressed that Dell successfully managed tariff and trade uncertainties through an agile, globally compliant supply chain, without passing costs to customers.

    Consistent acknowledgment and effective management of tariff and trade uncertainties, with a proactive and positive management approach.

    Free Cash Flow and Inventory Investments

    Q1 highlighted strong operating cash flow with temporary working capital effects. Q3 mentioned elevated inventory levels due to AI investments , while Q4 revisited past concerns of lower free cash flow in FY '25 driven by increased inventory investments but expressed optimism for FY '26.

    Q2 did not specifically address free cash flow pressures or inventory investments [N/A].

    Occasional concerns noted in previous periods with improvement plans in place; not a focus in Q2, suggesting stabilization or deprioritization of the issue.

    Enterprise Adoption and Customer Base

    Q1 reported sequential growth in enterprise adoption across diverse verticals. Q3 described an expanding base with over 2,000 unique enterprise customers and robust pipeline growth. Q4 reinforced enterprise-focused pipeline and storage attach rates.

    Q2 reported record enterprise adoption, with the largest number of enterprise customers and highest revenue generated from enterprise segments, covering broad industries from healthcare to manufacturing.

    Consistently strong and bullish growth in enterprise adoption and customer base; a key positive driver across all periods.

    1. AI Revenue
      Q: Can capacity flex beyond $20B in AI?
      A: Management noted that with $8.2B in AI shipments and $17.7B in orders in the first half, they have ample capacity to support the raised target of $20B, expecting non-linear growth as deployments convert into orders.

    2. Margin Outlook
      Q: What drives margin gains through Q4?
      A: They explained that seasonal shifts—especially improvements in storage mix and traditional servers—along with value engineering and resolution of one-time supply chain costs, are expected to boost margins into the fourth quarter.

    3. Supply Chain
      Q: How will supply chain pressures evolve?
      A: Management stressed that the Q2 expedite costs were one-time, and input costs should flatten in Q3 and Q4, with their agile supply chain continuing to support steady deliveries.

    4. AI Margin
      Q: Why are incremental AI margins low initially?
      A: They attributed the lower margins to one-time supply chain expenses and a diluted mix from aggressive early deals, expecting these effects to diminish as efficiencies and scale improve.

    5. Server Demand
      Q: How did federal demand impact servers?
      A: Management observed that weak federal spending in North America weighed on traditional server demand, though ongoing consolidation and refresh initiatives are anticipated to drive future gains.

    6. Enterprise Growth
      Q: How strong is enterprise AI traction?
      A: They highlighted record enterprise customer activity with eight straight quarters of buyer base growth—roughly 50% new customers—which underscores robust momentum in this segment.

    7. PC Refresh
      Q: Will PC momentum sustain post-refresh?
      A: Management is confident that the Windows 10 end-of-life presents a huge upgrade opportunity, since about half of the installed base remains unupgraded, promising steady PC growth.

    8. AI Product Mix
      Q: How is GB300 adoption affecting mix?
      A: They noted that the backlog is mainly comprised of Blackwell products—both GB200 and GB300—with a smooth transition to GB300 that avoids pricing pressures and supports continued growth.

    9. Pipeline Mix
      Q: What’s the order mix in the pipeline?
      A: Management described a robust pipeline with a growing mix of both sovereign and enterprise orders, largely centered on Blackwell products, which reflects a positive and balanced future demand profile.

    10. Storage Outlook
      Q: How do you view the storage market after a 3% drop?
      A: They explained that while large North American accounts saw softer demand, strong performance in Dell IP storage and seasonal acceleration in Q4 should position the segment for recovery.

    11. Storage Mix
      Q: Will proprietary Dell storage boost profitability?
      A: The leadership indicated a strategic shift towards higher-margin Dell IP storage despite overall volume softness, aiming for better profitability through an improved product mix.

    12. AI Cooling Mix
      Q: What’s the mix of liquid versus air-cooled AI servers?
      A: They mentioned that the current backlog leans toward liquid-cooled systems, which are favored in large-scale Blackwell deployments and support overall EPS growth.

    13. EPS Impact
      Q: Why is full-year EPS raise outpacing revenue growth?
      A: Management attributed the disproportionate EPS uplift to enhanced contributions from AI servers and improved operating efficiencies in traditional segments, which help drive overall profitability beyond the modest revenue increase.

    Research analysts covering Dell Technologies.