DHT - Q2 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q2 2024 DHT Holdings, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Laila Halvorsen, CFO. Please go ahead.

Laila Halvorsen (CFO)

Thank you. Good morning, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome, and thank you for joining DHT Holdings Q2 2024 Earnings Call. I am joined by DHT's President and CEO, Svein Moxnes Harfjeld. As usual, we will go through financials and some highlights before we open up for your questions. The link to the slide deck can be found on our website, dhttankers.com. Before we get started with today's call, I would like to make the following remarks. A replay of this conference call will be available on our website, dhttankers.com, until August 20. In addition, our earnings press release will be available on our website and on the SEC EDGAR System as an exhibit to our Form 6-K. As a reminder, on this conference call, we will discuss matters that are forward-looking in nature.

These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations about future events, as detailed in our financial report. Actual results may differ materially from the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements. We urge you to read our periodic reports available on our website and on the SEC Edgar System, including the risk factors in these reports, for more information regarding risks that we face. As usual, we will start the presentation with some financial highlights. We maintain a very strong balance sheet, represented by low leverage and significant liquidity. At quarter end, financial leverage was 18.6%, based on market values for the ships, and net debt was $14.2 million per vessel. The Q2 ended with total liquidity of $263 million, consisting of $73 million in cash and $191 million available under our revolving credit facilities.

Now over to the P&L. We are pleased with the results for the quarter. We achieved revenues on TCE basis of $133.7 million and EBITDA of $80 million. Net income came in at $44.5 million, equal to $0.27 per share. Vessel operating expenses for the quarter were $20.4 million, which included some one-offs, in addition to timing of purchases of spares and consumables. G&A for the quarter was $4.5 million. The vessels in the spot market achieved robust earnings with $52,700 per day, and the vessels on time charters made $36,400 per day. The average TCE achieved for the quarter was $49,100 per day.

For H1 of 2024, our spot vessels achieved $53,400 per day, while the average combined time charter equivalent earnings came in at $50,000 per day. Net income for the first half of 2024 came in at $91.6 million, equal to 0.57 per share. Then over to the cash flow highlights. The cash flow for the Q2 of 2024 was stable, and we started the quarter with $73 million in cash. We generated $80 million in EBITDA. Ordinary debt repayment and cash interest amounted to $16 million, and 46.8 million was allocated to shareholders through a cash dividend, while $0.8 million was used for maintenance CapEx.

We paid first installments for all four newbuildings, amounting to $51.5 million, and we drew $25 million on the ING revolving credit facility to partly fund the installments together with our discretionary cash flow. Further, $8.8 million was related to changes in working capital, and the quarter ended with $73 million in cash. Switching to capital allocation. DHT has a defined and predictable capital allocation policy, and in line with our policy, we will pay $0.27 per share as a quarterly cash dividend, which is equal to 100% of ordinary net income. The dividend will be payable on August 30 to shareholders of record as of August 23. This marks the 58 consecutive quarterly cash dividend, and the shares will trade ex-dividend from August 23.

On the left side of this slide, we present an update on estimated P&L and cash breakeven rates for 2024. P&L breakeven for the full year is estimated to $27,700 per day for the fleet, while cash breakeven is estimated to $18,500 per day, resulting in 9,200 per day per ship in discretionary cash flow after dividends. So assuming the vessels earn P&L breakeven, this means about $79 million in discretionary cash flow for the year. On the right side of the slide, we illustrate the quarterly cash dividend we have returned to shareholders since we updated the dividend policy in the second half of 2022. This amounts to a total of $1.97 per share. And with that, I will turn the call over to Svein.

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld (President and CEO)

Thank you, Laila. Here with the updated outlook for the Q3 for the company. We have 552 time charter days covered for the Q3 at $37,700. This rate assumes only the base rate for the two time charter contracts that have profit-sharing features. The forecast includes the time charter for DHT Europe, built 2007, at $49,500 per day that commenced at the end of June. We expect to have 1,630 spot days in this quarter, of which 75% have been booked an average rate of $42,100. The current spot market is below this level; hence, there is a risk that the average for the quarter will come down from this number.

The spot P&L, P&L breakeven for the quarter is estimated to be $23,600, a number that should assist you in estimating the net income contribution from our spot fleet. Here, we present you with an update for our newbuilding program. We have achieved meaningful improvements in the delivery schedules for all four ships. The delivery schedule is now February, April, May, and July in 2026. This results in a significant increase in revenue days for the year. When compared to the schedules at the time of entry, in entering into the contract, we now expect the increase in revenue days to be in the range of 550-600 days for the year. As you will note, the ships under construction have been all allocated names.

As indicated during our previous earnings call, the options for additional ships were not declared and have as such expired. The advanced schedule was made possible as certain projects for other ship types have been revised at the shipyards. We are very pleased with this outcome and that our relationship with the yard results in us being afforded this priority. The spot market is currently in a seasonal weak period. As many analysts and research reports are suggesting, we are now in a waiting game for refinery maintenance to complete and for runs to increase. On the graph to the left, you will see that seaborne transportation of crude oil hit about 41.7 million barrels per day in February and March this year.

In the past two months, this has come down to about 40.3 million barrels per day, i.e., down some 1.5 million barrels per day. As you will see in the graph to the right, this development resulted in inventory builds largely in April, and we understand in China, particularly. This reversed in June and July, as refiners started to draw on inventories, being the key culprit behind the reduced demand for transportation. We believe the prior slide to jibe well with this illustration. On the left, you can note that refining margins softened during Q2. In the graph on the right, you can see that refiners have built inventories of diesel and gasoline during the same period. The forward curve suggests that refining margins could improve and would offer an opportunity to reduce decent inventories.

We think it logical to assume that this will play out and that it will generate increased demand for crude oil feedstock and our services to rebuild crude oil inventories. In general, our markets offer attractive fundamentals and prospects with continued oil demand growth, longer transportation distances, and a limited supply of new ships in combination with rapidly aging fleets. Our strategic pillars remain with disciplined execution. We believe we are well-structured for the markets we operate in, focusing on solid customer relations, offering safe and reliable services, supported by a solid balance sheet, strong liquidity, robust breakeven levels, all matched up to the defined and shareholder-friendly dividend policy. With that, operator, over to you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A queue. Our first question comes from the line of Jonathan Chappell from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director of Transportation Team)

Thank you. Good afternoon. Bit of a housekeeping one first, with the new accelerated schedule on the new buildings, what's the payment schedule look like between now and delivery? Any more payments this year and the, you know, the cadence for next year? And then also, is this all gonna be cash funded, or do you plan on drawing down debt at delivery for the four?

Laila Halvorsen (CFO)

Yeah. So, in our press release, I think under note five, we've included a table with future expected payments. So you see there that within the next 12 months, we expect payments of $89.9 million. And then the rest after that. We've looked into different financing projects, and we are very pleased with the suggestions that we have, but nothing is decided yet. So we will get back to you with that once we've finalized.

Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director of Transportation Team)

Okay. And then,

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld (President and CEO)

If I, if I just may add to that, Jon, is that there is, of course, some timing differences is when we generate the cash flow that will, you know, use for the equity component of these ships. And so hence, we sort of go on time, from time to time, draw on RCFs and then generate cash flow and, and back and forth on that. So that's why this happened during this past quarter.

Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director of Transportation Team)

Have you had any interest at this point, with delivery now within the next 24 months on time charters? Or do you just assume that those would be implemented in the spot market upon delivery?

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld (President and CEO)

There is some initial interest, but I would say it's not at the level that sort of provides for negotiations. So, we have intention and interest in seeing if we can develop this. I think it will take a bit of time, and it's probably a next year event, if we decide to pursue that. You know, it is our ambition to build more long-term and fixed income for the company in general. And, these ships will offer some very interesting opportunities for a couple of three clients in particular that have showed interest.

Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director of Transportation Team)

Okay. And then finally, Svein, you know, the seasonality makes sense. I've seen it several years, Q3's weakest. Maybe this time, though, you know, there's some concerns about China as being the biggest end market, for crude long-haul deliveries and some potential weakness there. Have you seen any signs that maybe China is weakening, and it's a bit more beyond seasonality, there's some cyclical component to it? Or do you or you truly just think it's a function of, you know, refinery shutdowns at this time of year?

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld (President and CEO)

I think there's a bit of both. We've seen some development in that heavy trucking is starting to implement LNG as fuel. And LNG or, you know, heavy transportation in general in Asia, has been a meaningful contributor to demand growth in general. So this is something to watch. You know, on the positive side, there is meaningful growth in the petchem industry, which is, I guess, a reflection of policy in China, that they want to focus more on a consuming industry. And the new refining capacity coming on in China has around upwards to 80% of petchem output, of which the predominant part is crude oil based. But this is not happening right now. This is something we will see developing now over the next, I would say, 12-24 months.

So there is some, you know, change in, you know, where the oil is going or what good the oil is being used for, if you like. And I guess the negative components has come earlier than when the positive components will come into the market. So that's probably amplified a bit, the seasonality this summer.

Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director of Transportation Team)

Okay. Thanks for the time.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll now move on to our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Frode Mørkedal from Clarksons Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Frode Mørkedal (Analyst)

Thank you. Hi, Svein.

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld (President and CEO)

Hello, Frode.

Frode Mørkedal (Analyst)

Regarding the newbuild options, is the decision to not exercise them due to the fact that it could impact the ability to pay 100% of earnings and dividends? Or is it a view on the newbuild prices themselves?

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld (President and CEO)

Well, you know, if we had to clear those options, it would, you know, be a meaningful increase in CapEx, of course, and that would also change the structure of our balance sheet considerably. We had no desire to do that, so the core plan was all along to do the four ships, with the caveat that if we had some early interest to develop two long-term charters, say seven, eight years or longer, if that had happened earlier, and we could, you know, develop some particular financing for that, that's something we might have considered, for one, two or all four ships. But that did not materialize, so we felt it, you know, prudent to do the four ships, and we're very happy with that.

Yeah, that's the short story, I guess, so.

Frode Mørkedal (Analyst)

Yeah, makes sense. My next question is about the market. I guess there's been some talk about the VLCC cleaning up to do CPP cargos. What's the magnitude of that activity, and is that something you've also considered?

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld (President and CEO)

It's mostly Suezmaxes. We think maybe around 20 that have done that. There's been some VLCC cargoes, we think about a handful. You know, ideally, it should coincide with that you have a relatively modern ship that is then going through dry dock. In, you know, in sort of when that happens, that you also clean up the ship, in a sort of beyond the conventional dry dock work. It will take quite a few extra days, probably 20, I would say, and it will have some cost, a few hundred thousand dollars, depending on the ship and that ship's prior cargo history and things like that.

There was no, you know, opportunity now, with the sort of arbitrage pricing on products, as well as the lower cost of ships. So we have done this in the past. We did not have any ships that were sort of suited at this point, for this business opportunity, but it's not an unknown territory for DHT. We guess probably five ships, maybe six, and that's about it.

Frode Mørkedal (Analyst)

Okay, that's interesting. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll now move on to our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Omar Nokta from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Omar Nokta (Managing Director)

Thank you. Hey, Svein. Just wanted to follow up really quickly on the last question from Frode about the VLCCs and the potential, you know, carrying the clean cargoes. You mentioned that it's typically done before the vessel is going into dry dock. Is that basically, would this be just one cargo that they're able to do and then go to dry dock, or can it do a series of cargoes?

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld (President and CEO)

Well, it's done in connection with the dry dock, so that you clean up, and then when you load the refined products, these cargoes are typically going to the Atlantic Basin, and quite a lot of them have gone to Africa. You tend to be, you know, lying or, you know, storing the cargo for a while before you are able to unload. So that's sort of a, you could say, not a positive because you are a freshly painted vessel, and you tend to get some hull growth after this. But of course, the charter rates are at a premium to the general market, so that, I guess, you know, compensates for some of that.

Then there's some detailed nuances on risk with contamination and decolorization and things like that, to what extent you can transfer some of that risk to the counterparty and whatnot. But it is really for one cargo, unless you, after discharge, say, in Atlantic Basin, you decide to ballast back to try to do a second cargo. But that is normally not done, and ships view this as a sort of repositioning of the dry dock into the Atlantic Basin, and to then trade the cargoes loaded in U.S. Gulf or Brazil, West Africa.

Omar Nokta (Managing Director)

Okay, got it. Thanks for that. And then just wanted to ask, maybe you—we were discussing earlier the seasonality aspect, and it, you know, it comes every year, and you have the chart that shows the pickup. I guess I wanted to ask, maybe bigger picture, you know, it feels like we're in this pattern of OPEC constantly needing to revisit its production levels. And maybe we're looking at a situation where, you know, flat production from OPEC is best case, and they're constantly, you know, perhaps having to cut. And, you know, that's not necessarily because of demand, but it's the, you know, the fact that you have so much non-OPEC production growth. I guess how do you think, you know, the VLCCs will continue to fare in this type of market?

If we were to think about the dynamic here over the next, say, six to 18 months, where OPEC is, you know, flat to down, but then you've got the Atlantic that's growing, how do you think VLCCs fare in this type of market?

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld (President and CEO)

I think that would be a positive. So, the Atlantic barrels out to Asia is, you know, truly a VLCC business. And it's, you know, it's impossible really for Suezmax to compete in freight terms on that. So, so I would say that's a positive. I think if OPEC at some point now decides to release barrels to the market, it's because there is clear evidence of demand growth also, so that those barrels can come to the market without necessarily rocking the oil price, the sort of status quo. So, I think I always thought that OPEC or Saudi in particular clear, you know, objective of managing price more than anything, and that is precious to them.

Omar Nokta (Managing Director)

Okay. Yeah, and then just a final one, Svein. The, you know, TMX has been ramping up, and it looks like we're almost at a not necessarily a run rate, but it looks like a good number of Aframaxes are loading perhaps somewhat consistently out of the Vancouver region. Has there been any settling of how these cargoes are being directed? We know obviously it's the Afras that are loading at the port, but, you know, is reverse lightering onto VLCCs becoming a standard thing? And is that also something that maybe will move the needle on VLCCs, just perhaps not visible now because of, you know, summer?

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld (President and CEO)

Yes, there's already a number of cargoes where the Aframaxes have been heading south, California or even further south to PAL. And there's been then reverse lightering onto these, for those ships then go predominantly to China. There's also been, I think, one cargo to India. And the sort of freight cost of that is meaningfully cheaper than sending an Aframax directly from the Vancouver area over to China, because also those Aframaxes will not be fully loaded due to draft restrictions. So, so we think that this, you know, is a new trade that will evolve for these on top of what's what else is going on.

Omar Nokta (Managing Director)

Okay. All right. Thank you. That's it for me.

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. There are no further audio questions at this time, so I'll hand the call back to Svein Moxnes Harfjeld for any closing remarks.

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld (President and CEO)

Thank you to all for staying interested and tuned in to DHT, and we wish you all a good day ahead. Have a good one.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.