Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- The dual-brand concept combining Applebee's and IHOP is demonstrating exceptional success, with the first U.S. dual-brand location in Seguin, Texas generating three times the revenue of its previous stand-alone IHOP format and showing stronger sales in the second week than the first, indicating significant potential for revenue growth.
- Strong franchisee alignment and willingness to invest in the brands, as evidenced by oversubscription in the Applebee's "Looking Good" reimage program, with six of the top ten franchisees electing to accelerate remodels, and a growing pipeline of 50 to 60 dual-brand locations planned for next year, demonstrating confidence in the company's growth strategies.
- The company's focus on innovation in menu offerings and marketing strategies is beginning to yield results, with IHOP seeing stronger performance in the latter part of Q4 due to the launch of the House Faves value menu, and expectations for modest improvement in Q1 driven by initiatives like Applebee's Really Big Meal Deal; coupled with efforts in dynamic marketing, these initiatives are expected to improve performance and achieve guidance for 2025.
- The company expects the consumer environment to remain challenging for the rest of the year, anticipating only modest improvement in Q1 compared to Q4, which may impact sales and profitability.
- Despite introducing value-focused promotions like the 'Really Big Meal Deal' and 'House Faves', the company admitted that their promotions didn't fully cut through due to a crowded advertising space, indicating potential difficulties in driving traffic and sales growth.
- Rising commodity costs, especially from the avian influenza outbreak impacting egg pricing, are expected to increase IHOP's commodity costs by low-to-mid single-digit percentages, potentially pressuring margins if costs cannot be passed onto consumers.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
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Total Revenue | –0.8% (from $206.3M to $204.7M) | The slight decline in Q4 2024 total revenue reflects a minimal contraction in overall business, likely due to subdued performance in some operating segments compared to the previous period, even as shifts in revenue mix (e.g., extraordinary Royalties gains and revived company operations) stabilized the total revenue level vs.. |
Royalties Revenue | +1500% (from $8M to $138.1M) | The dramatic rise in Royalties Revenue indicates a major operational shift, likely due to a surge in franchise fee collections—possibly fueled by improved performance in key franchise brands and/or reclassification of certain revenue streams that were much lower in the prior period vs.. |
Company Restaurant Operations | Significant Increase (from $0.3M to $8.4M) | The substantial increase in Company Restaurant Operations revenue suggests a reversal from the previous refranchising trend, possibly due to reacquisition or enhanced performance of company-operated outlets, as opposed to the minimal activity seen in Q4 2023 vs.. |
Net Income | –84% (from $33.039M to $5.174M) | The sharp decline in net income reflects the impact of rising operating expenses and potentially adverse cost factors (e.g., higher interest and other overheads) that outweighed gains from surging Royalties revenue and revived operations, marking a significant drop compared to the previous period’s profitability vs.. |
Basic Net Income per Share | Drop (from $2.13 to $0.34) | The decline in basic net income per share is a direct consequence of the substantial reduction in net income, further amplified by possible changes in share count, thereby translating the overall reduced profitability more starkly to a per-share basis vs.. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
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General and Administrative (G&A) Expenses | FY 2025 | $195 million to $200 million | $200 million to $205 million | raised |
Commodity Costs | FY 2025 | Applebee's: low‐single‐digit deflation; IHOP: low‐single‐digit inflation | Applebee's: flat to slightly down; IHOP: increase by low‐to‐mid single digits | raised |
Domestic System-Wide Comparable Sales Growth | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Applebee's: -2% to +1%; IHOP: -1% to +2% | no prior guidance |
Adjusted EBITDA | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $235 million to $245 million | no prior guidance |
Capital Expenditures (CapEx) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $20 million to $30 million | no prior guidance |
Net Restaurant Openings/Closures | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Applebee's: 20 to 35 fewer domestic restaurants; IHOP: between 10 net fewer to 10 net openings | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Dual-Brand Concept | Q1 saw the emergence of dual-branded restaurants with positive franchisee interest and international testing. In Q2 it was validated internationally and a domestic pipeline was outlined. Q3 emphasized its role as a significant revenue multiplier (1.5x–2x revenue). | Q4 highlighted exceptional performance with the first U.S. dual-brand location achieving nearly 3x the performance of its stand-alone brand, with expanded franchisee interest and robust international expansion. | Growing momentum and increasing strategic focus as the concept moves from early testing to a critical growth pillar. |
Promotional and Menu Innovation | Q1 focused on value-driven promotions (e.g., $0.50 Boneless Wings, Rooty Tooty Fresh 'N Fruity) and new menu items that drove traffic. Q2 and Q3 noted mixed effectiveness with challenges in messaging and consistency. | Q4 continued to see mixed results but noted improvements through digital channel performance and new promotions like the Really Big Meal Deal and House Faves value menu, which helped boost off-premise sales. | Continual mixed performance with incremental improvements—innovations are being refined but challenges in consistency remain. |
Economic Headwinds and Shifting Consumer Demand | Q1 described increased price sensitivity and evidence of trading down among lower-income consumers. Q2 and Q3 consistently cited macroeconomic pressures and consumer caution affecting same-store sales. | Q4 reiterated that economic headwinds remain persistent, with guest spending impacted and same-restaurant sales declining for both brands. However, there were strategic adjustments focused on value platforms and dynamic marketing. | Persistent challenges tempered by gradual strategic refinements, with a clear focus on delivering value amid enduring economic pressures. |
Franchisee Alignment and Operational Consistency | Q1 contained modest operational updates and encouraging franchisee sentiment. Q2 highlighted strong collaborative promotion planning and cost-saving initiatives, while Q3 stressed the need for more consistency but noted franchisee willingness to invest. | Q4 showcased robust franchisee alignment and enhanced operational consistency, with active cooperation on turnaround efforts (e.g., taking over and remodeling restaurants) demonstrating a strong unified approach. | Improvement over time, with franchisees becoming increasingly aligned with strategic initiatives and operational enhancements yielding better consistency. |
Store Expansion and Redevelopment Initiatives | Q1 discussed early-stage prototype development, dual-brand research, and moderate net closure guidance. Q2 focused on value-engineered prototypes and new development agreements, while Q3 expanded on prototype optimization (including cost reductions and dual-brand designs). | Q4 presented a broader set of initiatives including the Applebee's reimaging program, new prototype design planned for 2025, and impressive dual-brand performance both domestically and internationally, signaling a bolstered expansion pipeline. | Steady strategic investment with accelerated pipeline development and updated prototypes, indicating a clear commitment to modernizing the portfolio. |
Commodity Cost Pressures and Supply Chain Challenges | Q1 noted modest improvements in commodity costs and initial annualized savings through CSCS. Q2 reported stabilization with continued cost-saving initiatives, and Q3 affirmed further stabilization with significant annualized savings. | Q4 reported renewed pressures driven by factors such as the avian influenza affecting egg prices and rising costs for certain ingredients, though strong supply chain initiatives continued to support profitability. | Stable but persistent pressures with ongoing proactive supply chain measures; challenges remain albeit with consistent cost-mitigation efforts. |
Strategic Brand Partnerships | Q1 introduced the NFL sponsorship and integration of Fuzzy's Taco Shop through value-driven promotions and development deals. Q2 expanded on NFL partnership integration and initial menu innovations for Fuzzy's. Q3 advanced the narrative with targeted NFL campaigns and creative Fuzzy's promotions. | Q4 detailed a 3-year NFL partnership that has notably increased visibility and driven traffic while Fuzzy's Taco Shop signed new development agreements (44 restaurants) and refined its value and promotional strategies, underscoring an evolving, strategic brand focus. | Increasing strategic value and evolving execution—these partnerships are maturing into key growth drivers, enhancing brand visibility and customer engagement across channels. |
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Q1 Trends and Guidance
Q: Could you give direction on Q1 trends vs guidance?
A: Management expects a modest improvement in Q1 from Q4 but anticipates the consumer environment to remain challenging throughout the year. They are confident in hitting guidance by focusing on key areas to improve performance. -
Franchisee Confidence and Investment
Q: Are franchisees confident in the turnaround plan and willing to invest?
A: Franchisees are strongly committed, aligning with management on 2025 plans. Evidence includes opening 40 IHOPs last year with similar numbers expected this year, oversubscribed Applebee's renovation incentive involving 7 of the top 10 franchisees, and enthusiasm for the dual-brand concept with a pipeline building of 50 to 60 units. -
Innovation Driving Comps
Q: Will innovation meaningfully drive comp acceleration in 2025?
A: Management believes innovation will drive growth, citing the dual-brand restaurant's 3x revenue compared to when it was just an IHOP. They highlighted successful marketing programs like the NFL partnership and new menu offerings contributing to recent strong weeks. -
Everyday Value Menu Expansion
Q: What's coming with the everyday value menu in back half?
A: The menu will be reorganized around the popular 2 for $25, introducing new items, and expanding offerings to singles, pairs, and groups. Marketing will emphasize this larger value platform, set to roll out in late spring or early summer. -
Takeback of 47 Applebee's Units
Q: Why did you take back 47 Applebee's units, and what's the plan?
A: The company opportunistically reacquired these units to revitalize and refranchise them in about three years. They plan to remodel 30 restaurants, demonstrate ROI to franchisees, and convert about half a dozen into dual-brand locations. -
IHOP's Food Costs and Egg Prices
Q: How are rising egg prices affecting IHOP's food costs?
A: IHOP expects low-to-mid single-digit inflation, primarily due to eggs. Franchisees haven't implemented egg surcharges, and suppliers are maintaining competitive egg prices. -
Guest Experience Enhancements
Q: How will you elevate guest experience beyond remodels?
A: Management emphasizes executing excellently across marketing, guest service, and food preparation. They plan to improve physical restaurants to be modern and welcoming, aiming for a great guest experience to drive better performance in 2025. -
IHOP New Leadership Vision
Q: What attracted the new leader to IHOP, and what's the vision?
A: Lawrence Kim was attracted by IHOP's iconic brand and sees significant potential. He notes the passion of team members and believes growth can be driven by capitalizing on consumer love, despite industry challenges.