HF Sinclair - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Welcome to HF Sinclair Corporation's fourth quarter 2025 conference call and webcast. Hosting the call today is Franklin Myers, who is acting as temporary Chief Executive Officer of HF Sinclair. He is joined by Atanas Atanasov, Chief Financial Officer, Steve Ledbetter, EVP of Commercial, Valerie Pompa, EVP of Operations, and Matt Joyce, SVP of Lubricants and Specialties. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. If you would like to ask a question at that time, please press star one on your touchtone phone. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star one again. If you should require operator assistance, please press star zero. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.

Additionally, we ask that you pick up your handset to allow optimal sound quality. Please note, as this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Craig Biery, Vice President, Investor Relations. Craig, you may begin.

Craig Biery (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Julianne. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to HF Sinclair Corporation's fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. This morning, we issued a press release announcing results for the quarter ending December 31, 2025. If you would like a copy of the earnings press release, you may find one on our website at hfsinclair.com. Before we proceed with remarks, please note the Safe Harbor disclosure statement in today's press release. In summary, it says, "Statements made regarding management expectations, judgments, or predictions are forward-looking statements. These statements are intended to be covered under the safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws. There are many factors that could cause results to differ from expectations, including those noted in our SEC filings. The call also may include discussion of non-GAAP measures. Please see the earnings press release for reconciliations to GAAP financial measures.

For any forward-looking non-GAAP measures, the company is unable to provide a reconciliation without unreasonable effort due to the unpredictability and uncertainty of certain items." Also, please note any time-sensitive information provided on today's call may no longer be accurate at the time of any webcast replay or rereading of the transcript. I will now turn the call over to Franklin.

Franklin Myers (Interim CEO)

Thank you, Craig, and thank you for being part of the fourth quarter earnings call. As you've seen in the release this morning, Mr. Tim Go, the company's Chief Executive Officer and President and a member of the board, has requested a voluntary leave of absence from his duties. The board has accepted Tim's request and elected me Chief Executive Officer and President of the company on a temporary basis. Also, the company released this morning, and announced that the audit committee of the board is assessing certain matters relating to the company's disclosure processes. We are working to complete this review as soon as possible. I want to emphasize that our review relates to our disclosure processes and not to the numbers we released this morning. We are comfortable with the financial statements and disclosures we released and have no expectation that they will change.

At this point, our audit is not yet complete, pending completion of this review. Once we have worked through these issues, we will move to forward to filing our 10-K. At present, we fully expect to make a timely filing of the 10-K. Given these preliminary remarks, I'll turn it over to Steve and Atanas for their remarks and on the results. After the presentation, we'll be happy to take questions. I want to note, though, and emphasize that this is an earnings call and our results on our results for Q4 and the full year 2025. We will not be in a position to address any questions relating to the disclosure process review or on the company's leadership. Let me turn it over to Steve.

Steve Ledbetter (EVP of Commercial)

Thank you, Franklin. This morning, we reported solid full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion and fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $564 million. Our fourth quarter results reflect seasonal weakness in our refining business. Our fuel margins were strongest in the first half of the quarter when our throughput was the lowest, but the margins weakened significantly at the end of the quarter, especially in our core markets in the Rockies, Mid-Con, and the Southwest. This, along with the Puget Sound refinery turnaround and the unplanned Artesia refinery event, negatively impacted refining earnings for the fourth quarter. Despite the headwinds in refining, the positive contributions from our midstream lubricants and marketing segments highlight the strength of our diversified portfolio.

In the fourth quarter, we returned $230 million through dividends and share repurchases, demonstrating our commitment to returning excess cash to shareholders. During the quarter, we received small refinery RINs waivers from the EPA, which increased adjusted refining gross margin by $313 million. This includes $43 million of small refinery RINs waivers granted by the EPA in the third quarter, but recognized in the fourth quarter. I will now go through our full year highlights and provide an update of some of our strategic initiatives, and after that, I will turn it over to Atanas to go through our detailed fourth quarter results. For the full year 2025, I'm pleased to report that our financial and operational results demonstrate significant progress we are making on our three key priorities: reliability, integration, and shareholder return.

For example, in refining for 2025, we successfully completed major turnarounds at our Tulsa, Parco, and Puget Sound refineries. We also made improvements on our operational performance, setting annual records for throughput of 652,000 barrels per day and operating expense per throughput barrel of $7.67. Our overall refining operating costs were down by $87 million year-over-year, highlighting our improvements in both cost control and reliability.... On the organic front, we are progressing a vacuum furnace project at our El Dorado refinery that will improve plant reliability, upgrade yield through gas oil recovery, and importantly, increase our heavy crude processing capability by approximately 10,000 barrels per day.

The estimated capital cost of the project is approximately $55 million, of which $37 million has already been spent in 2025, with an expected annual EBITDA uplift of between $25 million and $30 million. The project is expected to be completed during the fourth quarter El Dorado turnaround of this year. Our marketing segment delivered record annual EBITDA of $103 million in 2025, a 37% increase over the prior record. We also grew our supplied branded footprint by a net of 117 sites, demonstrating our commitment to grow the DINO brand and provide a long-term outlet with margin uplift for our refining barrels. Looking forward, we expect to grow our number of branded sites by approximately 10% annually.

Today, HF Sinclair is pleased to announce the formation of Green Trail Fuels, LLC, a new joint venture with UPOP Holdings, for which we will hold a 50% non-operating economic interest. This joint venture will include more than 30 retail sites across Colorado and New Mexico. As part of this partnership, HF Sinclair will supply fuel from its proximate regional refineries, strengthening the company's branded marketing footprint in the Rockies and the Southwest. This joint venture represents a strategic step forward for our marketing segment and allows us to accelerate growth of the Sinclair brand at an expedited pace and capture synergies across our integrated asset base. In lubricants and specialties in 2025, we delivered annual EBITDA of $261 million, reflecting lower sales volumes and the turnaround at our Mississauga facility.

Our Finished and Specialty business continued to deliver strong results, offset by weakness in Group II and Group III base oil margins. Looking ahead, we are well underway in integrating our recently acquired Industrial Oils Unlimited business, which provides strong regional manufacturing capabilities to further our lubricants and specialties reach into the United States markets. Its proximity to our Tulsa refinery also provides synergy opportunities from its base oil production. We continue to look for additional bolt-on opportunities that will allow us to grow our Finished and Specialties business. In our Midstream business, we delivered record annual adjusted EBITDA of $459 million. In October, we announced the evaluation of a multi-phase plan to expand our midstream refined products pipeline network to address growing supply needs in the western U.S.

We believe our geographic reach and infrastructure provide an advantaged position to quickly and efficiently deliver refined products where market needs are most acute. We are targeting a final investment decision for phase one by middle of this year. During 2025, we returned over $724 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Since the Sinclair acquisition in March 2022, we have returned over $4.7 billion in cash to shareholders and have reduced our share count by over 64 million shares, which represents all of the shares we issued for Sinclair and 79% of the shares we issued for both Sinclair and the HEP transaction. We remain committed to our long-term cash return strategy and long-term payout ratio while maintaining a strong balance sheet and an investment-grade credit rating.

Today, we announced that our board of directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, payable on March 12th, 2026, to holders of record on March 2nd, 2026. Looking forward, we are bullish on margins in refining in 2026 and we remain focused on safe and reliable operations, continued growth in our midstream lubricants and marketing segments, and returning excess cash to shareholders. I will now ask Atanas to take it from here.

Atanas Atanasov (CFO)

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin by reviewing HF Sinclair's financial highlights. Today, we reported fourth quarter net loss attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders of $28 million or negative 16 cents per diluted share. These results reflect special items that collectively decreased net income by $249 million. Excluding these items, adjusted net income for the fourth quarter was $221 million, or $1.20 per diluted share, compared to adjusted net loss of $191 million, or negative $1.02 per diluted share for the same period in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $564 million, compared to $28 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

In our refining segment, excluding the lower of cost or market inventory valuation adjustment charge of $313 million and certain other adjustments, fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $403 million, compared to -$169 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. This increase was principally driven by higher adjusted refinery gross margins in both the West and Mid-Con regions, partially offset by the Puget Sound refinery planned turnaround and the unplanned Artesia refinery event. As Steve mentioned, small refinery RINs waivers granted by the EPA in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased adjusted refinery gross margins by $313 million, which includes $43 million of benefits related to the small refinery RINs waivers received in the third quarter, but recognized in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Crude oil charge averaged 556,000 barrels per day for the fourth quarter, compared to 562,000 barrels per day for the fourth quarter of 2024. In our renewables segment, excluding the lower cost of market inventory valuation adjustment or charge of $7 million, we reported adjusted EBITDA of negative $6 million for the fourth quarter, compared to negative $9 million for the fourth quarter of 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, we recognized incrementally more in value from the producer's tax credit. Total sales volumes were at 57 million gallons in the fourth quarter of 2025, as compared to 62 million gallons for the fourth quarter of 2024. Our marketing segment reported EBITDA of $22 million in the fourth quarter, compared to $21 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

This increase was primarily driven by higher margins and high grading our mix of stores throughout 2025. Total branded sales fuel volumes were 337 million gallons for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to 333 million gallons for the fourth quarter of 2024. Our lubricants and specialty segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $43 million for the fourth quarter, compared to adjusted EBITDA of $70 million for the fourth quarter of 2024. This decrease was primarily driven by lower finished and specialty product sales volumes, lower base oil margins, and higher operating costs. Our Midstream segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $114 million in the fourth quarter, compared to $114 million in the same period of last year.

Net cash provided by operations totaled $8 million in the fourth quarter, which included $122 million of turnaround spend. HF Sinclair's capital expenditures totaled $131 million in the fourth quarter. As of December 31, 2025, HF Sinclair's total liquidity stood at approximately $3 billion, which includes cash balance of $978 million in our undrawn $2 billion unsecured credit facility. As of December 31st, we have $2.8 billion debt outstanding, with a debt-to-cap ratio of 23% and net debt-to-cap ratio of 15%. Let's go through some guidance items. With respect to capital spending for full year 2026, we expect to spend approximately $650 million in sustaining capital, including turnaround and catalyst.

This is down $125 million from 2025 due to the completion of the heavy maintenance cycle of our assets, and we expect our sustained capital to continue to trend below the high catch-up maintenance levels of the past years. In addition, we expect to spend $125 million in growth capital investments across our segments. For the first quarter of 2026, we expect to run between 585,000 and 615,000 barrels per day of crude oil in our refining segment, which reflects the plant turnaround at our Puget Sound and Woods Cross refineries. We're now ready to take some questions from the audience.

Operator (participant)

The floor is now open for questions. At this time, if you have questions or comments, please press star one on your touchtone phone. We ask that you please limit to one question and one follow-up. If you have additional questions, we welcome you to rejoin the queue. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star one again. Thank you. Our first question comes from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Neil Mehta (Financial Analyst)

Yeah, good morning, team. Franklin, I recognize you're limited in terms of what you can say here, but the stock is down a lot in the pre-market, so I think I do think the story could benefit from some color. Anything you can share about the management change and the audit to provide a little bit more color? Because I think a number of folks are confused this morning, and is there any relationship between these two items?

Franklin Myers (Interim CEO)

Neil, I appreciate the question, but you have to understand the circumstances that we're in. We have no further comment today. Personally, I view this as a buying opportunity. If and when we have additional information, we'll give you updates as we are able to do so. But thank you for your question, and thank you for letting us clear that up.

Neil Mehta (Financial Analyst)

All right. My, my follow-up is just on small refinery exemptions. In the quarter, they were pretty significant. Just any color in terms of the path, of converting that over to cash and, and perspectives on the 2026 outlook for SREs?

Atanas Atanasov (CFO)

Yeah, Neil, thank you for the question. We intend to continue to participate in this program and appreciate the EPA is now following a form of a formulaic approach. We can't comment on any further benefit from SREs. However, we did benefit during this quarter and this year in a significant way, both in terms of EBITDA and cash.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Ryan Todd, from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Ryan Todd (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Good, thanks. Maybe, first one on the refining side. I mean, the headline refinery results were strong, but, if we exclude the SRE tailwind, I mean, you had strong throughput, you had good OpEx, but the gross margin contributions look a little lower without the SRE. Can you maybe talk about what some of the headwinds might have been on the quarter that would have led to lower capture across the regions? And maybe if you can disclose any, you know, on a regional breakdown, what the gross margins would have looked like without the SRE?

Steve Ledbetter (EVP of Commercial)

Hey, Ryan, this is Steve. I'll take that. Look, when you think about the quarter, the crack environment was very strong in the first half of the quarter, but then it took a precipitous fall beginning in the second half, really November, coming off around 15%, and then December dropped another 48%-50%. So from a timing perspective, that was what the market looked like in our regions. Our planned and unplanned maintenance happened in the first half of the quarter when the margins were much stronger. So finally, following our maintenance events, we needed to liquidate inventory positions, and that happened in a lower market environment. But I would also like to say that we, you know, we're very bullish in refining outcomes, and we believe in the underlying business performance improvement plans that we have underway.

I think that's been demonstrated by capture improvement year-over-year, and the underlying reliability trends contributing to lower OpEx and increased full-year throughput.

Ryan Todd (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Great, thanks. And then maybe, separately on, you know, congratulations on the marketing JV that you announced. Can you provide some color on what you see as potentially the tangible benefits of the partnership, what the platform may allow you to do in terms of driving additional growth on the region or elsewhere?

Steve Ledbetter (EVP of Commercial)

Yeah. We are very excited to be able to announce that. I think it's truly a new, a new avenue to really accelerate the growth and unlock the full potential of the Sinclair brand, which we think is still an untapped resource for our company. What this allows us to do is to go accelerate the branded put. It gives us exposure to what we believe is attractive margins in the rack-to-retail and even the backcourt. And then finally, it allows us to go capture synergies with our integrated asset base in both Refining and Midstream. And this is a template that I think we can use in other places.

You know, we look to go really accelerate the growth of the DINO brand in our core markets, and this is the first one where we are signaling that we're serious about this, and we see this as a significant platform for growth.

Ryan Todd (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Paul Cheng from Scotiabank. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Paul Cheng (Managing Director)

Hi. Good morning. Frank and Dan, can you maybe clarify that, with the management change, is that the company will conduct a strategic review on the operation or that to looking at different asset, whether they fit into the long-term portfolio, or that it's business as usual and none of the strategy and that, and anything that would be changed? Because I know you're not going to comment on Tim Go, the reason behind, but can you clarify that when CC is a voluntary leave of absence, if that means that he will come back at some point or that this is a permanent, in other words, that you guys will be looking for a permanent replacement of the CEO? That's the first question.

Franklin Myers (Interim CEO)

Okay, Paul, I heard two questions there, and I'll answer both of them. The first question on strategic review, it's business as usual within the company, and we'll keep going forward on the plans that we have. In terms of your question with respect to Tim and the other matters, we have no further comments today, and I just want you to turn your follow-up question back to the earnings call, please. But if and as we have additional information, we will alert the public in the appropriate way. And so, I think you may have a follow-up question.

Paul Cheng (Managing Director)

Okay. The follow-up question is on the SRE impact on the margin for the quarter. Is that just because that it depends on where you receive, so do you have a breakdown by region? What is the SRE impact? Thank you.

Steve Ledbetter (EVP of Commercial)

Hey, Paul, this is Steve. Why don't we take that one offline, and I'd offer up Craig Biery on a follow-up call to show the breakdowns to you.

Paul Cheng (Managing Director)

All right, will do. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Theresa Chen from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Theresa Chen (Senior Analyst)

Hey, Steve, to follow up on your comments about the bullishness on the outlook for the refining business, we're curious how you see the path of economic recovery, how that will go for the Mid-Con region, particularly in light of the, you know, weakness in Group III adjusted crack spreads and still elevated utilization rates across the region. How do you see the path to more sustainable profitability environment from here?

Steve Ledbetter (EVP of Commercial)

Yeah, it's a good question. Thanks, Theresa. You know, of course, we look at things on a longer cycle basis, and as we look across the cycle, we see that tightness will return and be constructive, including in the Mid-Con. We think what we see right now is directly associated with Winter Storm Fern really taking the demand bubble and popping it, and high inventories and now converting into the RVP. But we think that that is temporary and normalizes out over the year. And then on the back of that, and that's really on, on gas, but we believe that that diesel continues to may remain very strong, and jet appears to be durable. So it's a bit of a timing issue.

Mid-Con will be a little softer early in the year, but we feel like that will normalize as we step into driving season.

Theresa Chen (Senior Analyst)

That's helpful. Thank you. And on the Green Trail Fuels JV, any color or details on the expected CapEx, net to DINO and the build multiples associated with the incremental retail sites?... Do you have any quantitative color at all on how we should think about the contribution of this investment to earnings on a go-forward basis?

Atanas Atanasov (CFO)

Yeah, thanks, Theresa. This is Atanas. We're not going to comment on the exact investment. However, I would say that we're funding this JV through a very efficient use of capital, which ultimately results in a very attractive multiple to the corporation, to the point that where it's competing with any of our other projects. What it also does, any of our other marketing projects, with the incremental benefit there is not only the branded foot that you have on the wholesale side, but also our access for very accretive retail economics. So this is efficiently funded by the corporation and results in a relatively low multiple to us.

Theresa Chen (Senior Analyst)

Thank you.

Atanas Atanasov (CFO)

Of course.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Doug Leggate from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Doug Leggate (Senior Managing Director)

Hi, good morning, everyone. I will avoid the main topic, it seems obviously we're going to have to wait on your review there. But I do have a couple of questions, Atanas, around the small refinery exemptions and cash flow, if I may. And I guess it's part A and B, perhaps, but can you just confirm that the SRE benefit you took was cumulative, and if so, over what period? And how that reads through to how we should think about the ongoing benefit going forward? That's my first question. Then my second question is, can you offer any color on the underlying free cash flow, excluding the SREs? So I don't know what the cash flow impact was this quarter from the SREs, and we also don't know what the working capital move was.

So can you give us a breakdown of how you—what you see as the underlying cash flow and free cash flow, excluding working capital and any contribution from SREs, please? Thank you.

Atanas Atanasov (CFO)

Yeah. Thank you. Thank you for, thank you for your question, Doug. So for the total year, the cash flow impact of the SREs was just under $300 million, a little over $280 million. So obviously it represents a significant amount of our free cash flow in the fourth quarter. However, I would remind you that we had a lot of capital outlays in the fourth quarter, so you have to focus on total free cash flow for the full year, which was very robust, just, almost $900 million, just under $870 million.

Now, when you look at, on an ongoing basis, we're not going to provide any, any, any guidance because that's really out of our hands, and we, we appreciate the EPA's formulaic approach, but we're going to limit our comments to our actuals. So $313 million in total EBITDA impact for the fourth quarter, $485 million for full year, and significant cash flow contribution, just under $300 for the fourth quarter.

Doug Leggate (Senior Managing Director)

So...

Atanas Atanasov (CFO)

For the full year.

Doug Leggate (Senior Managing Director)

Can you focus, please, Atanas, on the fourth quarter, the SRE after-tax contribution and the working capital move? I'm just trying to get an underlying cash flow number, excluding those two issues.

Atanas Atanasov (CFO)

So when you look at our total working capital, the working capital movement for the fourth quarter, and again, you'll be able to analyze this later, but this total working capital was a headwind, and there's really two items to, when you exclude SREs. Number one, you know, when you build inventory, that was a headwind. And number two is, in a declining price environment, AP is a headwind. So those are the two main drivers that you see, that were impacting our net working capital for the year. But again, for the quarter, but then for the full year, like I said, our total cash cash flow from operations and free cash flow was was pretty robust, as evidenced by our return of capital to shareholders.

Doug Leggate (Senior Managing Director)

All right. I'll take it offline. Thank you, guys.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Joe Laetsch from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Joe Laetsch (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks. Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to ask on lubricants, it was a bit weaker than we had expected in the fourth quarter. I know there was some seasonality to that business, but could you just unpack some of the drivers, the fourth quarter results? And as part of that, how do you see the segment progressing throughout the year? Thank you.

Matt Joyce (SVP of Lubricants and Specialties)

Thanks, Joe. It's Matt Joyce here. Yeah, you nailed it. Seasonality was, of course, a big driver for us. Fourth quarter always tends to be time of the year where our customers are destocking and managing inventory, and we saw a similar trend. This was no exception. But the other part of this was we also encountered some higher operational expenditures in the quarter. Energy costs and feedstock costs and feedstock quality, in particular in our Mississauga facility, impacted our overall performance of base oil production, as well as the margins that we could achieve. And when you look at that, we also got caught out with some pretty poor weather in the Mississauga area, when we rely heavily on that seaway, St. Lawrence Seaway, for our supply chain.

And so that also impacted some of our production and our costs throughout the quarter. From the finished and specialty side of it, I'd alluded to it in earlier quarters on the specialty side, where we had seen some of our slowdown in our process oils that go into the rubber and tire industry based on new cars and being built at a slower rate. That's still the case. We saw a little bit of a slowdown that was tracking a little bit lower than what we'd like to have seen, and that was a continuing trend at about 10% lower than what we had anticipated. But our finished business remained pretty healthy, and we've put on some new volumes and new business at very nice margins.

So in balance, when we look at it, quarter four was generally driven by base oil production costs and operational expenditures, as well as the pricing we were able to achieve in the quarter. Looking forward, we see steady demand for our products. We'll obviously be watching out for any impacts or continuing impacts on the slowdown in our specialty side. Base oils will be the one that we're working to solve in the future.

Joe Laetsch (Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks, Matt. That's helpful. And then on the midstream side, could you just give us an update on where we are with the Western extension pipeline project? I know there are several phases under evaluation. I think phase one is targeted by mid-year. Thank you.

Steve Ledbetter (EVP of Commercial)

Yeah. So, we are progressing both the midstream and refining aspects through our project delivery framework. And, as we talked about earlier, we think that this project is really complementary to whatever other project may become, come to fruition. And, we're working through not only the economic assessment, but also to make sure we can execute appropriately and with accurate cost assessments, which get us to the point of taking FID. We believe very strongly in this project, and we think that this will be very accretive to the entire value chain under HF Sinclair. So stay tuned. More to come, likely mid-year.

Joe Laetsch (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Manav Gupta from UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Manav Gupta (Executive Director)

Good morning. I wanted to go back, and it seemed from your earlier comments that you were relatively bullish on refining margins. I'm just trying to understand that, the cracks that is you're bullish on or you see widening differentials. I think Brent WTI is a little wider, WCS is a little wider. If you could talk about you're relatively more bullish on, on refining.

Steve Ledbetter (EVP of Commercial)

Hey, Manav, this is Steve. I think we talk about our belief on constructive margin environment and being bullish for a number of different areas. One, when you think about the global supply-demand balance, looking 2026 versus 2025, we see it to be short, 100-200,000 barrels a day, demand net of additional capacity. And then when you look at the U.S., you know, we think that there's still tightness in the market. We've seen the demand for diesel be very strong, as well as jet. And then some of the underlying things that you already mentioned, you know, the Venezuelan announcement had a shock in terms of the to the system, in terms of the differentials, and we saw that immediately pop.

But we think that that's probably another $1-$1.50, which is very good for us. As you know, we can run up to 100,000 barrels a day of heavy crude, and that results in anywhere from $30 million-$35 million. And then the other piece, really, there is what's happening to the pressure of WCS versus WTI, and that, we think, is structural, as those barrels have to compete to get south, and we're taking advantage of that now, and we see that strong in Q1, so... And onward. So it's really a combination of everything. We don't see there's a lot of additional capacity. And then one other point is our exposure to PADD 5 is an enviable position with what is happening there.

That market is getting tighter with two announced refinery closures, and we think we've got, you know, regional efficiencies to get there and take advantage of that, both in the Pacific Northwest as well as in the southern PADD 5. So all in all, for DINO, we think our refining structure looks pretty bullish through 2026.

Manav Gupta (Executive Director)

Perfect. My quick follow-up, and I understand the limitations here. The number one question we are getting is, and the parallels are being drawn a little bit to, to ADM: Is this an internal inquiry, or at this point, there is involvement of SEC or Department of Justice? Again, I'm asking because a number of people have asked us, is this, is this something similar to ADM, or is this something internal?

Matt Joyce (SVP of Lubricants and Specialties)

We can't comment on it right now, and I can tell you that... Again, I refer you back to the press release that, that will give you information that's material, as it and when it becomes available. I will emphasize, though, the audit committee and the board are fully comfortable with the disclosures that we've made today and the financial statements, both with respect to the results of operation and financial condition of the company. If we weren't comfortable, we wouldn't be having this call. I want to provide you with that assurance.

Manav Gupta (Executive Director)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Philip Jungwirth, from BMO. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Phillip Jungwirth (Managing Director)

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Coming back to SREs, can you level set us just on where you sit now for Woods Cross, Parco, Casper, Tulsa, and Artesia? Not looking for guidance, but just what's been submitted or resubmitted and what are we still waiting on decisions from?

Steve Ledbetter (EVP of Commercial)

Yeah. So this is Steve. We have submitted petitions for all of those and already submitted petitions for 2025, and we're waiting for the EPA to deliberate on granting the awards. We've done everything that we can at this point to make sure that we are not the constraint or the bottleneck, and we anticipate hearing something in short order.

Phillip Jungwirth (Managing Director)

Okay, great. The company's talked about being in the fifth inning of its refining reliability, integration, operating cost improvement journey. Just wondering if you still think that's the case today? How do you see the progression trending this year? And then is there the ambition or ability to do more on the commercial side, too, just in order to improve capture rate?

Valerie Pompa (EVP of Operations)

Hey, this is Valerie Pompa. We're, you know, the strategies we've been talking about for the last few years continue to be reflected in our OpEx for barrel. We're continuing to, you know, ahead of headwinds on natural gas. We've managed to, you know, improve the underlying base business and our controllable costs, and still, you know, take $87 million out this year. And we anticipate and expect that we're gonna continue those strategies towards our $725 goal that we've put out there in over the last few years.

Steve Ledbetter (EVP of Commercial)

Yeah, maybe from a commercial perspective, of course, there's always opportunity to do more, which are why we're doing some of the things that we've already announced, including announcing the multi-phase project of our midstream assets, which really takes advantage of the integrated nature of our business. The joint venture that we just announced, that also does, you know, the same thing of taking advantage of our integrated footprint. We talked about the El Dorado project, where we're making investments that we think are accretive. That one is an important one in terms of light product yield, as well as running more heavy, and then taking advantage of our retail asphalt business, so that heavy oil value chain.

We've made progress both in the jet value chain as well as the premium value chain, and taking middle pieces out that don't add value to us or where we have efficiencies to go, make that, make that work. And then the final piece is our, our slating crude structure. We've taken a very aggressive approach in making sure that we can qualify more and different crudes that allow us to take advantage of differentials or dislocations at different times, and we're starting to see that show up in our slating crude underlying numbers. And I just point back to our year-over-year capture improvement of 6% excess RIN and 9% excess RIN in the RVO.

So that's not done yet, not calling this victory, but what we're seeing in terms of the trajectory are encouraging, and we're gonna continue to aggressively go pursue that.

Phillip Jungwirth (Managing Director)

Great. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Matthew Blair from TPH. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Matthew Blair (Managing Director)

Great. Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Can you talk about how your RD business is trending so far in the first quarter, just given this increase in D4 RIN prices? Do you think that EBITDA margins above $0.25 a gallon is realistic so far for Q1? Also, have you been increasing your operating rates of your RD facilities? Thanks.

Steve Ledbetter (EVP of Commercial)

Yeah. So maybe I'll take that one just at a high level. You know, we've worked extremely hard in our renewables diesel business to get to the point of it being at or around breakeven in terrible market conditions, in preparation for what we expected to come, which was what we're seeing in the underlying market. You're seeing the BOHO spread work, you're seeing the RIN values jump, and we have forward view that that business is more constructive than it was. You know, finalization of RVO is gonna help. I think 45Z finalization was also a big help. And then we've done some make improvements to our base business.

You know, really, we talk about it in, in feedstock strategy, and that's really getting closer to where the feedstock is produced and taking a middle part out of that value chain, and then high-grading our molecules, getting into different markets. We're now finding homes in attractive markets in Canada and the Pacific Northwest, differently than just California. And then I think we've made great strides in the underlying operational efficiency in terms of, of operating costs as well as catalyst change. So yeah, we see the economic incentives to go run higher, and we will do that and are doing that. Now, having said that, we did have an end-of-life catalyst change at Artesia that has been now completed, so that was done in January.

So, it's a long way of saying we're finally seeing some benefit for our current setup, and the structure in the market is telling us that we are encouraged about the outcomes financially. Not gonna comment on the $0.25 per gallon EBITDA at this point, but we do see this more constructive than we probably ever have since we stepped into this business.

Matthew Blair (Managing Director)

Sounds good. Then there's also a proposal in Utah to reduce taxes on retail gasoline, but then implement a new tax directly on refineries in the state. Could you talk about where you stand on this proposal and the implications if it passes? Thanks.

Steve Ledbetter (EVP of Commercial)

Yeah. So we're actively working with the various legislatures up in that region. The issue is wanting to make sure that security of supply is there and bringing down overall fuel costs. Not gonna comment necessarily on that proposal, but we don't believe taxing is the way forward, and we're in active conversations around that. In fact, part of our whole project to move more barrels west is potentially part of the solution. And we're talking on how we can get support to accelerate getting that delivered and solve the need, which is underlying what this proposal is trying to accomplish.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Jason Gabelman (Energy Equity Research Managing Director)

Yeah. Hey, morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to ask a question about the RVO in the crack, and it's gone up a few dollars a barrel, approaching $9 a barrel. And I think historically, you haven't really captured any of that, but I wonder, following the Sinclair acquisition, the expansion of the marketing business, if that's changed at all, if your blending capabilities on the ethanol side enable you to capture any of that, RIN that's in the crack? Thanks.

Steve Ledbetter (EVP of Commercial)

Hey, Jason. Yeah, we watch this pretty closely. Now, I would tell you that in an oversupplied market, you are less able to go pass that through to the customers and how you're getting rid of the product, and you eat more of that. As we have gone and moved more into an integrated view on our blending capabilities, and our branded outlets, we do see some benefit for that. But it is, it is a headwind, and the RVO, as it climbs, continues to be, something that we look at as a headwind. And, you know, I think as we evolve here and things tighten up, we'll begin to see more of this play out to where, it does show up in the crack.

But for now, it's, it's kind of a wait and see, and we're trying to make sure that we can, we can pass as much of that as well. But, but in an oversupplied market, that becomes more and more difficult to do.

Jason Gabelman (Energy Equity Research Managing Director)

Okay. And my follow-up is just on Puget Sound, 'cause I was a bit surprised, I think, to see another turnaround announced in 1Q, just given the turnaround you recently had. So can you just talk about if there's anything specifically going on with the asset? Did you find something during the work in 4Q that resulted in you accelerating work into 1Q? Or is it just kind of normal turnaround cycles and a bit of bunching up? Thanks.

Valerie Pompa (EVP of Operations)

Yeah, this is Valerie. It's just our normal cycle. We split the turnaround units for capability and capacity of the site. Historically, the turnaround success, you know, and ensuring that we could execute well. So we've right-sized the turnarounds, which were units we take together, and so this is just a normal cycle. We didn't, you know, the turnaround in the fall was executed successfully, achieved a lot of our objectives. This little, this small turnaround, a coker and a reformer, will close all of those north side units up this year.

Jason Gabelman (Energy Equity Research Managing Director)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

We have no further questions. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.