Executive Summary

Q1 2025 delivered adjusted EPS of $(0.27) vs Wall Street consensus of $(0.41), a beat, on sales of $6.37B vs consensus $6.79B, a miss; EBITDA materially exceeded consensus ($262M reported vs $135M consensus). Values retrieved from S&P Global. Actuals: adjusted EPS $(0.27) , revenue $6.37B , EBITDA $262M .
Diversified segments offset refining softness: Marketing posted record $27M EBITDA, Lubricants & Specialties $85M EBITDA, and Midstream a record $119M adjusted EBITDA .
Refining sequentially improved capture and OpEx, with consolidated adjusted refinery gross margin of $9.12/bbl (down from $12.70 YoY), crude charge steady at ~606kbpd, and utilization ~89% .
Guidance maintained: FY25 sustaining capital ~$775M and growth capital ~$100M; Q2 crude run guided to 600–630kbpd; regular quarterly dividend of $0.50/share declared, payable June 3, 2025 .
Catalysts: tightening West Coast gasoline markets (CARB components project at Puget Sound), midstream optimization, and potential policy clarity on renewables credits (PTC/RINs/LCFS) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Marketing delivered a record $27M EBITDA and the highest quarterly adjusted gross margin of $0.12/gal; branded sites increased to 1,664 (+117 YoY), with strong execution and portfolio high-grading .
Midstream generated a record $119M adjusted EBITDA driven by tariff and volume initiatives; management emphasized unlocking integrated value across refining, midstream, and marketing .
Lubricants & Specialties posted $85M EBITDA with product mix optimization and resilience; management highlighted growth in high-value markets (mining, food-grade, thermal management, pharma/personal care) .

Selected quotes:

“We delivered strong results in our Marketing, Midstream and Lubricants & Specialties businesses, and saw sequential improvement in Refining...” — CEO Tim Go .
“Record quarter... predominantly increased focus on our products and crude pipelines and the revenue generation from our tariff situation...” — EVP Steve Ledbetter (Midstream) .
“We’re doubling down on our growth in the U.S... selected end uses with higher growth rates... forward integration strategy...” — SVP Matt Joyce (Lubes) .

What Went Wrong

Refining posted a segment loss before interest and taxes of $(30)M and adjusted segment EBITDA of $(8)M, reflecting lower adjusted refinery margins (consolidated $9.12/bbl, -28% YoY) and lower product sales volumes .
Renewables reported $(17)M adjusted EBITDA with sales volumes down (44M gallons vs 61M YoY) and no recognition of Producer’s Tax Credit (PTC) due to regulatory uncertainty; management said EBITDA would have been near breakeven with PTC .
Net cash used for operations totaled $(89)M in Q1, including ~$105M turnaround spend; cash declined to $547M from $800M in Q4 due to working capital and maintenance activity .

Financial Results

Headline metrics – sequential (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Sales and Other Revenues ($USD Billions)	$7.21	$6.50	$6.37
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$(0.40)	$(1.14)	$(0.02)
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.51	$(1.02)	$(0.27)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$98.6	$9	$262
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$316.0	$28	$201

Headline metrics – YoY

Metric	Q1 2024	Q1 2025
Sales and Other Revenues ($USD Billions)	$7.03	$6.37
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$1.57	$(0.02)
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.71	$(0.27)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$617	$262
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$399	$201

Consensus vs Actual (Q1 2025)

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Result
Primary EPS ($)	$(0.41)*	$(0.27)	Bold beat
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$6.79*	$6.37	Bold miss
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$135.0*	$262	Bold beat

Note: * Values retrieved from S&P Global (Primary EPS Consensus Mean, Revenue Consensus Mean, EBITDA Consensus Mean; Primary EPS - # of Estimates=10; Revenue - # of Estimates=8).

Segment performance (YoY)

Segment	External Revenues ($USD Millions)	EBIT ($USD Millions)	EBITDA / Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)
	Q1 2024	Q1 2025	Q1 2024
Refining	5,373	4,923	312
Renewables	179	94	(39)
Marketing	776	686	9
Lubricants & Specialties	676	638	65
Midstream	23	29	92

KPIs

KPI	Q1 2024	Q1 2025
Consolidated Adjusted Refinery Gross Margin ($/bbl)	$12.70	$9.12
Crude Charge (BPD)	604,930	606,140
Refinery Utilization (%)	89.2%	89.4%
Marketing — Branded Sites (period end)	1,547	1,664
Marketing — Sales (000 gal)	321,010	293,865
Marketing — Adjusted Gross Margin ($/gal)	$0.07	$0.12
Renewables — Sales (000 gal)	61,172	44,464
Renewables — Adjusted Gross Margin ($/gal)	$0.15	$0.16
Midstream — Total Pipelines & Terminals Volumes (BPD)	1,996,453	1,991,842

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Crude Run Rate (kbpd)	Q2 2025	N/A (Q1 2025 guide for Q1 was 580–620 kbpd)	600–630 kbpd	N/A for sequential; Q2 set at 600–630
Sustaining Capital ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	~$775	~$775	Maintained
Growth Capital ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	~$100	~$100	Maintained
Dividend per Share ($)	Quarterly	$0.50 (declared Q4 2024)	$0.50 (declared for Q1; payable June 3, 2025)	Maintained
Credit Facility ($USD Billions)	5-year facility	Prior facilities (HF Sinclair & HEP)	New $2.0 undrawn facility (as of April 30, 2025)	Upgraded/Consolidated

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Renewables policy (BTC→PTC, RINs/LCFS)	Positive adj. EBITDA despite weak credits; record volumes and lower OpEx/gal	Volatility expected; positioning for low CI feedstocks and tighter supply; LCFS tailwind in 2025–26	No PTC booked; would be near breakeven with PTC; clarity needed; managing feedstocks/OpEx	Uncertain near-term; constructive medium-term
West Coast/CARB gasoline	Strategy to move barrels west; leverage Puget & Rockies to PADD 5	Optionality to deliver components/finished CARB; tanks coming online	CARB tanks staging; leveraging Las Vegas/PNW arbs; tight inventories	Increasing optionality/capture
Marketing expansion (branded put)	Store growth; run-rate $75–80M; margin uplift	Continued expansion, high-grading; EBITDA improving	Record EBITDA; run-rate $75–85M; sustainable	Scaling; durable margins
Midstream integration	Record volumes; tariff-driven uplift	Optimizing kit; +$50M run-rate YoY	Record adj. EBITDA; focus on tariffs and volumes	Structural improvement
Turnarounds & OpEx discipline	Reliability focus; lowering OpEx/bbl	Peak catch-up capital; expecting normalization beyond 2025	Q1 heavier; Q2 heavier; one turnaround remains in Q3; OpEx discipline continues	Normalizing workload
Tariffs/Macro	Watching Canadian tariffs; crude flexibility	Seasonal Mid-Con; constructive margin setup	Tariff uncertainty cited as headwind; navigating via commercial optionality	Managed through flexibility

Management Commentary

“We remain focused on the things in our control, such as commercial and operational excellence, turnaround execution and capital discipline.” — CEO Tim Go .
“Had we been able to recognize any of the [PTC], we would have been close to breakeven EBITDA... longer term... tighter supply/demand balance.” — EVP Steve Ledbetter (Renewables) .
“Our run rate [Marketing] is still between $75M and $85M annually, and we see upward progression as we build out our network.” — EVP Steve Ledbetter .
“We issued $1.4B of senior notes... extended our debt maturity profile while lowering our weighted average interest expense.” — CFO Atanas Atanasov .
“We are encouraged by the recent strength in refining margins as we head into the summer driving season.” — CEO Tim Go .

Q&A Highlights

Midstream optimization: Focus on crude/product pipelines and tariffs drove a record quarter; integration is unlocking value across the chain .
Lubes resilience and growth: Forward integration of base oils, targeted high-value end markets, and potential bolt-ons while prioritizing organic growth .
Demand trends: Gasoline and distillate demand relatively flat-to-positive; colder winter and reduced RD/BD output tightened distillate market .
Renewables credit clarity: No PTC recognized; management expects breakeven at bottom-cycle with PTC; sees support from RINs and LCFS over time .
West Coast leverage: CARB tank project staging; optionality to move components/finished products; arbs into Las Vegas and PNW exploited .
Turnarounds and capital returns: Q1/Q2 heavier turnaround cadence; one remaining in Q3; intent to return excess cash as cracks improve .

Estimates Context

EPS beat: Adjusted EPS $(0.27) vs consensus $(0.41); number of estimates: 10. Values retrieved from S&P Global. Actual: .
Revenue miss: $6.37B vs consensus $6.79B; number of estimates: 8. Values retrieved from S&P Global. Actual: .
EBITDA beat: $262M vs consensus $135M. Values retrieved from S&P Global. Actual: .

Implications: Expect upward revisions to EBITDA for non-refining segments (Marketing/Midstream/Lubes), while revenue expectations may be tempered by lower volumes and renewed focus on margin/capture. Renewables estimates likely remain conservative pending policy clarity.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Diversification working: Marketing, Midstream, and Lubes offset refining weakness; these segments demonstrated record or strong EBITDA and margin resilience .
Refining is improving sequentially: Capture and OpEx saw progress; utilization steady; watch summer margins and West Coast optionality for incremental tailwinds .
Renewables positioned for policy normalization: No PTC in Q1, but management expects breakeven/positive EBITDA at trough if credits are recognized; LCFS/RIN support could improve margins later in 2025–26 .
Capital allocation remains shareholder-friendly: Dividend maintained at $0.50/share; refinancing improves maturity profile; intent to return excess cash as margins recover .
Guidance steady: FY25 sustaining capex ~$775M and growth capex ~$100M maintained; Q2 crude run 600–630kbpd guided despite turnaround activity .
Tactical catalysts: CARB gasoline components project at Puget Sound, arbs into Las Vegas/PAD5, and midstream tariff initiatives support capture; monitoring tariffs and macro uncertainties .
Estimate dispersion likely narrows: EPS/EBITDA beats vs consensus highlight underappreciated non-refining earnings; revenue miss reflects volume dynamics — net positive for quality of earnings. Values retrieved from S&P Global. Actuals: .

HF Sinclair Corp (DINO)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary