Executive Summary

Q2 2025 delivered adjusted EPS of $1.70, a material beat versus Wall Street consensus of ~$1.08*, driven by higher adjusted refinery gross margins across both West and Mid-Continent and lower operating costs; GAAP diluted EPS was $1.10 . Revenue was $6.784B, modestly below consensus of ~$6.964B* .
Adjusted EBITDA rose 64% YoY to $665M, with Refining adjusted EBITDA up to $476M (from $187M), while Renewables remained near break-even on an adjusted basis despite macro headwinds .
Management highlighted sequential progress in throughput, capture, and OpEx; West distillate demand strength and improving capture anchored performance; dividend of $0.50/share declared and $145M returned via dividends and buybacks in Q2 .
Near-term catalysts include continued operational optimization, recognition of additional Producer’s Tax Credit (PTC) benefits in Q3, and robust distillate fundamentals; Q3 crude run guided to 615–645 kbpd with Puget Sound turnaround .

Values marked with * are from S&P Global consensus estimates.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Refining margins and capture improved: Adjusted refinery gross margin rose to $16.50 per produced barrel (+46% YoY), lifting Refining adjusted EBITDA to $476M . CEO: “we delivered sequential improvements... in refining throughput, capture and lower operating costs” .
Marketing performance and network growth: Marketing EBITDA was $25M with adjusted gross margin of $0.10/gal; branded sites reached 1,719 (+155 over 12 months), with 80+ additional sites targeted in 6–12 months .
Cash generation and returns: Net cash from operations totaled $587M; $145M returned via $95M dividends and $50M buybacks; cash balance increased to $874M .

What Went Wrong

Renewables under macro pressure: Adjusted EBITDA of $(2)M (excluding $24M LCM benefit) amid lower volumes and margins, though partial PTC recognition began in Q2; management expects more PTC value in Q3 .
Lubricants & Specialties margin/volume headwinds: EBITDA fell to $55M (from $97M YoY) due to lower margins, turnaround at Mississauga, and a $20M FIFO charge .
Revenue miss vs consensus and lower volumes: Sales and other revenues of $6.784B missed consensus ~$6.964B*, with consolidated sales of produced refined products at 649k bpd vs 666k bpd in Q2 2024, reflecting turnaround impacts .

Values marked with * are from S&P Global consensus estimates.

Financial Results

Quarterly Trend (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Sales and other revenues ($USD Billions)	$6.500	$6.370	$6.784
Diluted EPS - GAAP ($USD)	$(1.14)	$(0.02)	$1.10
Adjusted EPS - Diluted ($USD)	$(1.02)	$(0.27)	$1.70
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$9	$262	$516
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$28	$201	$665

YoY Comparison (Q2 2024 → Q2 2025)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Sales and other revenues ($USD Billions)	$7.846	$6.784
Diluted EPS - GAAP ($USD)	$0.79	$1.10
Adjusted EPS - Diluted ($USD)	$0.78	$1.70
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$408	$516
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$406	$665

Margins and Refining Economics (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Adjusted refinery gross margin ($ per produced bbl sold)	$6.68	$9.12	$16.50
Operating expenses per throughput barrel ($)	$9.12	$7.95	$7.32

Segment Breakdown (Income before interest & taxes; EBITDA)

Segment	Q2 2024 IBIT ($MM)	Q2 2025 IBIT ($MM)	Q2 2024 EBITDA ($MM)	Q2 2025 EBITDA ($MM)
Refining	$65	$166	$187	$300
Renewables	$(15)	$(4)	$5	$22
Marketing	$9	$18	$15	$25
Lubricants & Specialties	$74	$33	$97	$55
Midstream	$97	$98	$110	$115

KPIs

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Consolidated crude charge (bpd)	606,140	615,930
Consolidated sales of produced refined products (bpd)	621,790	649,210
Refinery utilization (%)	89.4%	90.8%
Adjusted renewables gross margin ($/gal)	$0.16	$0.36
Renewables produced sales volumes (thousand gallons)	44,464	54,786
Marketing adjusted gross margin ($/gal)	$0.12	$0.10
Branded sites (period-end)	1,664	1,719
Midstream total pipelines & terminal volumes (bpd)	1,991,842	1,906,035

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Dividend per share	Quarterly	$0.50	$0.50 (payable Sep 4, 2025)	Maintained
Crude run (Refining)	Q3 2025	NA	615–645 kbpd	New/Specific
Sustaining capital (incl. turnaround/catalysts)	FY 2025	NA	~$775M	Affirmed
Growth capital	FY 2025	NA	~$100M	Affirmed
OpEx per throughput barrel target	Near-term	~$7.25 target	~$7.25 target; achieved $7.32 in Q2	On track
Share repurchase authorization remaining	As of 6/30/25	NA	~$750M remaining	Informational

NA indicates prior explicit guidance not disclosed in reviewed Q1/Q4 documents.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
Operational reliability/turnarounds	Q4: heavy turnaround at El Dorado; OpEx elevated . Q1: catching up on cycle post-COVID/acquisitions	Majority of 2025 turnarounds behind; Puget Sound turnaround in Q3; improved throughput/capture/OpEx	Improving execution
Refining capture & margins	Q4: weaker margins industry-wide . Q1: adjusted margin $9.12/bbl	Adjusted margin $16.50/bbl; capture up despite narrow heavy diffs and rising RIN prices	Strengthening
Renewables policy/PTC, LCFS, RVO	Q4: LCFS/RIN dynamics; structural challenges	Partial PTC recognized; expect more in Q3; LCFS tightening and higher D4 RVO supportive but gap vs BTC remains	Constructively improving
Marketing expansion	Q4: record year; 1,627 sites	1,719 sites; record net adds; 80+ sites pipeline	Accelerating growth
Heavy-light diffs & crude slate	Q1: flexibility across hubs	Q3 diffs ~$9–10, Q4 ~$13, longer-term widening possible; nimble crude sourcing	Mixed near-term; potential improvement
M&A vs bolt-ons	Q4: diversified portfolio focus	Prefers bolt-ons in Marketing/Lubes; refining bid-ask wide; disciplined on value	Bolt-on focus
Shareholder returns	Q4: $1B returned FY24	$145M in Q2; committed to 8–9% return pace if margins hold	Consistent/committed

Management Commentary

CEO Tim Go: “we delivered sequential improvements over the last three quarters in refining throughput, capture and lower operating costs” and “with the majority of our turnarounds behind us in 2025, we believe we are well positioned to continue to execute our strategy and return excess cash to our shareholders” .
CFO Atanas Atanasov: Adjusted EPS of $1.70; refining adjusted EBITDA up to $476M; renewables near break-even adjusted EBITDA with partial PTC benefit; net cash from operations $587M; FY25 sustaining capex ~$775M, growth ~$100M; Q3 crude run 615–645 kbpd .
EVP Commercial Steve Ledbetter: Capture improved sequentially despite narrow heavy diffs and backwardation; distillate production and optimization improved; renewable diesel benefits from domestic feedstock positioning and LCFS/RVO changes .

Q&A Highlights

Capture rates and refining optimization: Management emphasized flexibility in crude slate, integrated midstream logistics, distillate strength, and improved decision-making; distillate production up >10 kbpd QoQ .
Renewables economics and policy: Partial PTC recognized; expect greater recognition in Q3; LCFS tightening and higher D4 RVO supportive; still a structural gap vs BTC, but DINO’s domestic feedstock mix is advantaged .
Operational excellence and turnaround cycle: Completing a five-year cycle with improved reliability; next cycle poised to benefit from technology and field execution; OpEx per barrel tracking toward $7.25 goal .
PAD-5 exposure and logistics: Ability to supply Phoenix/Las Vegas via Navajo and Rockies; UNEV capacity and debottlenecking opportunities back West capture; indirect exposure to CA via neighboring states .
Capital allocation/M&A: Preference for bolt-ons in Marketing and Lubes; buybacks continue with authorization remaining; returns remain a priority given cash generation .

Estimates Context

EPS: Q2 2025 adjusted/Primary EPS actual $1.70 vs consensus ~$1.08* → strong beat.
Revenue: Q2 2025 actual $6.784B vs consensus ~$6.964B* → slight miss.
Estimate breadth: EPS estimates count 12*, revenue estimates count 8*.

Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus.

Estimate Metric	Q2 2025 Consensus	Q2 2025 Actual
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)	$1.08*	$1.70
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)	$6.964*	$6.784
Primary EPS - # of Estimates	12*	—
Revenue - # of Estimates	8*	—

Key Takeaways for Investors

Strong EPS beat driven by higher adjusted refinery gross margins and better capture; despite a modest revenue shortfall, operating leverage and mix delivered outsized profitability .
Distillate strength in the West and improved operational reliability underpin near-term margin resilience; turnaround cadence moderates into H2 with only Puget Sound in Q3 .
Renewables remain near break-even adjusted EBITDA, with incremental PTC benefits expected in Q3 and supportive LCFS/RVO backdrop; monitor BTC‑to‑PTC transition risk and RIN/LFCS pricing .
Marketing’s expanded footprint and margin improvement provide diversified earnings ballast; continued site growth (~80+ pipeline) adds steady cash flow .
Capital returns remain central (dividend and buybacks), supported by $587M operating cash flow and $874M cash; ~$750M buyback authorization available provides flexibility .
Watch crude differential trajectory (heavy-light widening potential into Q4 and 2026) and management’s crude slate flexibility to sustain capture .
Near-term trading: Favorable refining setup and distillate seasonality plus expected PTC recognition in Q3 are positive catalysts; risks include margin normalization and renewables policy/pricing volatility .

HF Sinclair Corp (DINO)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary