DISH Network - Q3 2023
November 6, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, and welcome to the DISH Network Corporation Q3 2023 earnings conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Tim Messner, EVP and General Counsel. Please go ahead, sir.
Tim Messner (EVP and General Counsel)
Thanks, Cynthia. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. We're joined on the call today by Charlie Ergen, our Chairman; John Swieringa, our President of Technology and COO; Paul Orban, our CFO; Tom Cullen, EVP of Corporate Development; Mike Kelly, EVP and Group President of Retail Wireless; and Gary Schanman, Group President of Video Services. Before we start, I need to remind you of our safe harbors. During this call, we may make forward-looking statements which are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from historical results or from our forecasts. We assume no responsibility for updating forward-looking statements. For more information on factors that may affect future results, please refer to our SEC filings. We don't have any prepared remarks this morning, so with that, we'll open it up to questions, starting with the analyst community. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
And ladies and gentlemen, I do apologize. There was a technical situation. If you had pressed star one prior to us starting the call, if you could please press star one again. Again, I do apologize. If you could please press star one again, I do appreciate your cooperation. Thank you very much, and we'll pause for just a moment for that. Okay, we will now begin taking questions from the analyst community. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star one to ask a question. We'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone the opportunity to signal for questions. Our first analyst question comes from Walter Piecyk with LightShed. Please go ahead.
Walter, your line is open. Please go ahead. Walter, if you could please check your mute button, we're not getting a response from your line. I am not hearing a response. We will move to our next question. Our next question comes from Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead.
Michael Rollins (Analyst)
Hi, good morning. I was curious if you'd talk more about the retail results for wireless in the quarter, and can you frame what's happening on the subscriber side, what's happening in terms of the EBITDA burn, and then break out the Boost Infinite component of those results? Thanks.
Michael Kelly (EVP and Group President of Retail Wireless)
Good morning. This is Mike Kelly. On the Boost Wireless side, I would say this is my first full quarter on the job. There's a lot of discipline that we brought back into the sales channel over the quarter, which resulted in less net adds than we expected. We put discipline back into the sales process that I felt was necessary. We focused on putting devices in the hands of our customers that will load on the 5G network going forward. We realigned our dealer compensation for the period with the goal of acquiring profitable customers going forward. We put back in control that we felt was necessary for profitable customers going forward. Paul, do you want to talk a little bit about the EBITDA?
Paul W. Orban (EVP and CFO)
Yeah. So marketing was higher for the quarter. As Mike alluded to, with the change in the commission structure, it was elevated in Q3. You'll see that abate in Q4 as we get fully onto the new commission structure. And also, as Mike alluded to, as it relates to equipment COGS, that was high for the quarter because we had a higher percent of handsets that had our 5G or that are capable to work on our 5G network deployed. That'll help us in future quarters as we'll get owner economics on those phones.
Michael Rollins (Analyst)
Just one follow-up. If you look at the current base of Boost subs, 7.5 million, and the revenue that they're generating, is there a path just for that portion of the business to get that to be significantly profitable again, and that can fund the subscriber acquisition for new Boost Infinite opportunities? Or is it that the current business is dealing with just a higher recurring cost than maybe we've seen over the last couple of years?
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Yeah, this is Charlie. I'll maybe turn it over to Mike. I'd say a couple things. One is that when the CDMA shutoff that happened, you know, that was kind of devastating for what we expected because we had to replace all those customers with new phones. So we missed the cycle of... Had that been happening today, we could put them on phones that were compatible with our network. But obviously, when that was done, well over a year ago, there were no phones that were compatible with our network. So for the most part, those 7.5 million customers, the vast majority of them, do not have phones compatible with our network.
So that's an upgrade cycle and that set of economics that we'll be able to do a portion of those, but not the vast majority, that would be my guess, that because we missed that cycle. So that's why we fought so hard to hold T-Mobile to what they had.
Operator (participant)
... but what they had said, said under penalty of perjury, you know, to the California regulators. When Mike came in, and he didn't—I'll give him a little bit more credit than maybe the street's giving him right now, but the customers that we have, that we were getting customers, we just weren't sure which ones were the good. What, you know, some customers we made money on, and some we didn't. And so, I think now, everybody we're putting on now, for the most part, we have high expectations that we'll make money, either because they're on our network or because they're on the MVNO, but they're just a different class of customer. And so some of that's discipline and how you do it.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Some of the commission structure that he alluded to, for retailers, they were incentivized to get a customer, but they weren't necessarily incentivized to keep the customer. That's changed. They're incentivized to keep the customer today, and they have a lot of control over what customers they put on. So those are things that certainly my fault for not being more on top of that in the earlier years, but Mike has come in and made, you know, those changes. And so, that's gonna. We'll have better performance as a result of that on both prepaid and postpaid.
Michael Rollins (Analyst)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Walter Piecyk with LightShed. Please go ahead.
Walter Piecyk (Partner and TMT Analyst)
Thanks. Just a question, I guess, in general, about the postpaid business. I mean, the value proposition is obviously very compelling, but it just feels like no one really knows about it, and it's on the Amazon homepage, it's not really there. Just curious, is there a plan for the ad spend to increase? And if so, how much flexibility do you have in terms of that spend? And then, I guess, related, CapEx-wise, how much can you cut? I mean, obviously, the CapEx is already starting to come down, but when we head into 2024, how much of the available dollars do you have that you can cut out of CapEx, so you can actually use it to tell people about the $25 a month service?
Michael Kelly (EVP and Group President of Retail Wireless)
Well, I would say first on the Amazon relationship, I would say, we do have flexibility in terms of how we continue to evolve and build out the storefront. A lot of things came together on a very short period of time towards the end of the quarter. We continue to work with Amazon to improve the overall storefront presentation. So you'll continue to see that evolve this quarter. And with respect to advertising, we do have a relationship with Amazon to focus on acquiring customers through that channel, so we'll be working with their advertising sales team as well.
Paul W. Orban (EVP and CFO)
Excuse me, and this is Paul. I'll take the CapEx question. CapEx, we do expect it to decrease in Q4, and then going into 2024, it'll to decrease also. What you're seeing is it's cash CapEx, so you had a timing issue. So most of what's paid in Q3 really related to Q2 deployments.
It was more of a 10,000-foot question[crosstalk], I think. And, yeah, go ahead. Sorry, Charlie.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Go ahead. Go ahead, Walt.
Walter Piecyk (Partner and TMT Analyst)
It's more of a 10,000-foot question, not like timing of this quarter versus next, but, like, if you were spending whatever it is, $275, like, can you take that down to $1 billion for next year? $500 million? Like, how low can you go so you have those dollars to kind of use to tell people about the service? Because it seems like the service, again, offering is compelling. It's just, like, how do people find out about it?
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Yeah, look, if constructive criticism, are we doing a great job of marketing? The answer is no. Okay, can we do-- Can, you know, the messaging probably wasn't, you know, didn't have quite the desired effect, you know, as you said, because people don't know about it. And let me give you examples. If you walk into an Apple Store today, you can't buy Boost, right? You can buy our competitors, but you can't-- and when you go to their homepage digitally, you can't buy Boost today. You know, we're not even integrated into their system because that takes time, takes an investment on their part. So we're hopeful that, you know, obviously, they'll support us there. So we're not hitting on all cylinders there. That's kind of the bad news.
The good news is we've made the, when we make, we do it right, online, we make that a better experience than going to a store. And that's the strategy that we have to have. We have to make online, whether it be Amazon or other partners, right? That experience be better for most people than going to a store and waiting in line and so forth. If we do that, we'll be very successful. And there has to be messaging and marketing and things to make that happen. But having said that, that's the strategy. You know, if you... What's nice about that is, in a funny sort of way, is we could hit the ground running a lot faster if we had 5,000 stores in postpaid, but we don't.
On the other hand, if you make the online process better, you're gonna wish you didn't have 5,000 stores. Talk to the bookstores of the world about that, right? So we think we're where the puck is going. We think we're in the right place. When we make it with our, with, when it works, it really works, and it's a great experience. There are a ton of issues, but some on our side, some on our partner side, that we still have to correct operationally, because it we would have liked to had a few more months to, before we had, before we went out to the, to the public, but iPhone came out on a certain date. We had to meet that date, right? Or else we would miss the, that wave. So we felt like we needed to be there.
So we're a little ahead of our skis. It's a little bit like, you know, so we're making a few more mistakes than we probably normally would like to make, but we're failing fast and we're learning, and I think that'll pay off for us. So I think strategically, Walt, we're on the right side. I think the any criticism on the marketing side is well received here, in terms of we know we need to do better there, and we know that the messaging has to be fine-tuned, and it's not just the messaging, it's the operations, it's how you promote it. It's a two or three different things in our company with our partners working together to do that. We haven't quite cracked that yet, but we will.
Walter Piecyk (Partner and TMT Analyst)
How low can you get CapEx, Charlie, for 2024?
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Well, I mean, I think nothing's changed--well, actually, something did change a little bit. We've said $10 billion on the CapEx side, we're obviously short of that. The Puerto Rico sale, I mean, but you know, you're more familiar with that than I am, so maybe I'll let you-
John Swieringa (President of Technology and COO)
Yeah, that's fine.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Talk about that. That helps a little on the CapEx side.
John Swieringa (President of Technology and COO)
Yeah, I don't know that Paul is willing to give guidance on total CapEx for next year, but we announced the Puerto Rico sale this morning. We have a lot of experience in Puerto Rico over the years with pay TV and the last couple of years with wireless. It's a challenging market. It's a very competitive market. It has weather challenges as well. The build-out would be expensive, so we thought it best to enter into a transaction which gives Liberty a much more competitive spectrum position, frees up, brings us new capital in terms of the sale proceeds, as well as pretty significant capital savings from not having to build on both the islands, which are very expensive builds and higher than average OpEx.
So by entering into the transaction, we'll now be able to focus those funds back into the continental U.S.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
But, I mean, the big picture, Walt-
Walter Piecyk (Partner and TMT Analyst)
Okay, thanks.
Paul W. Orban (EVP and CFO)
I think I understand your question. We have several levers, right, that to manage cash. One of those is marketing and just the SAC in terms of acquiring customers. The more profitable customers, the faster you wanna go, the more marginal the customer is, probably the slower you go, but, you know, it depends on how our total operations are doing. And then CapEx, where we've met our major milestone, it's not that expensive for us to make the next milestone, but because it's, you know, we've done the heavy lifting. On the other hand, you wanna continue to invest in your network because you wanna move people off the MVNO.
So you have to balance, we have to balance those levers, and so it's not an easy answer, other than, you can expect, CapEx will continue to decline the rest of this year and into 2024 before you'll see an uptick in the first half of 2025 for a couple of quarters, as we finish that final build-out milestone. So, it will free up capital.
Walter Piecyk (Partner and TMT Analyst)
Just, just one more, one more.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
It will free up capital.
Walter Piecyk (Partner and TMT Analyst)
Yep.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
It will free up capital, and how that gets spent will be dependent on how well we're doing in our business.
Walter Piecyk (Partner and TMT Analyst)
If you don't mind, I'm just gonna try one more angle on this, which is, you know, I know you've been generally adverse to basically giving away phones, right? You know, using working capital, you know, whether it's payment plans or just literally subsidizing phones, like what AT&T does to a certain extent with its existing customers. You know, now that you've had the offer in the market, is it just a recognition of people seeing the $25 and activating a second SIM or whatever it is, versus are you starting to think that maybe, you know, being more aggressive with spending capital on basically giving away free phones or at least subsidizing a portion of them, is gonna be necessary to get some traction going on the postpaid side?
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Yeah, I mean, look, we're realistic. Nobody really subsidizes a phone, right? They obviously charge the customer for the phone. So we're not opposed to that. I mean, that, you know, but when we have our own economics, you realize our variable cost for that customer, our variable cost is zero. So there's a lot of interesting things we can do as we move into... This question hadn't been asked, but I think I'm just gonna transition this because I think it's important albeit indirectly to this question. As we transition people to our network, the world changes for us economically.
And John, maybe John is our President, Chief Operating Officer, and has all the build out, you know, and as he's in the budget cycle pretty heavily now, maybe you wanna jump in here and give us to maybe better answer Walt's question, give a feel for how that, how you look at it.
John Swieringa (President of Technology and COO)
Yeah, of course. Thanks, Charlie, and, hey, Walt, thanks for the questions today. So really, I'm working on a three-legged stool. The first piece is, we've got a little over 120 million commercial VoNR pops today, about a third of the country, where we have voice and data, which is needed for Boost Mobile and Boost Infinite. We're gonna take that, another third up to 240 million by June. So you can sort of see our trajectory there, in terms of, where we get to, sort of full MNO economics in our retail business. At the same time, and I've talked about this on earlier calls, there's been a lot of focus on getting, the device ecosystem where it needs to be to support us.
And right now, to give you a feel for it, about a third of the devices we activate are compatible with our network, 5G SA, our spectrum bands, those sorts of things. And again, up to June next year, we'll move that to two-thirds. Right, so that's another sizable shift with the support from the Android community. Obviously, you saw the news on the iPhone. And so we're working through the device side of it as well. And the net impact of that is, as we bring in new customers, the economics change dramatically, and we expect to be able to see that as we head towards next June.
But in addition, the other effect, and I think a few of the analysts wrote about this this morning in an earlier reports, we get to take a sizable chunk out of our MVNO bill. So, as we look at that, we see that going down.
... by a third as we get to June of next year. So those three things together really sort of change the trajectory in the retail business. And, I think where you started is the idea that where do we find capital to invest? And those are, those are a few areas to look at and model around that.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Yeah. So the big picture is we have scale June of next year. That's we have scale. We're a year behind where we'd like to be for scale, but we'll have scale next year, both on devices and the network. That network is about where Sprint was, you know, at the end. So that now you have scale and your CapEx is primarily done, your. And you're only gonna get, you're only gonna improve from the two-thirds that John's talking about. So that gives you a feel for it.
Walter Piecyk (Partner and TMT Analyst)
Got it. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Kannan Venkateshwar with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Kannan Venkateshwar (Analyst)
Thank you. Paul, maybe a couple for you. When we think about the S-4 projections that you provided with the EchoStar filing, it assumes sequentially an increase in losses, a further increase in losses in Q4, in wireless, and you pointed to some tailwinds and costs in Q4. So if you could just help us reconcile, you know, the Q4 trends. And then as we look at the same projections for next year, there's a big acceleration in trends, with respect to, you know, profitability. So if you could just help us understand the underlying assumptions in terms of volumes versus price and what you're assuming to get to those numbers, that would be very helpful. Thanks.
Paul W. Orban (EVP and CFO)
Well, you know, overall, when you look at the forecast there, there's gonna be some puts and takes, and the timing may change, but we believe the forecast that we had in the S-4 is still accurate. We'll continue to deploy in Q4 more towers, and you'll have more OpEx, which will be helping to drag down a little bit in the fourth quarter. And then, as we grow, obviously, you're gonna have SAC and the costs that are related to growing the Boost Infinite and the Boost Mobile business in Q4 and in Q1.
Kannan Venkateshwar (Analyst)
Got it. And then, Charlie, when you think about capital needs for next year and beyond, you obviously have the debt maturities and, you know, the EchoStar deal should help address some of it. But if you step back and think about maturities beyond that, there's obviously a big, you know, step up in capital required, even as your CapEx needs also potentially go up in 2025 and beyond. So if you think about, you know, beyond 2024, how should we think about the capital plan? How much of it is internally funded? How much of it is externally funded? And, you know, if you could just help us understand what your partnership options are or update us on that, that would be very helpful. Thanks.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Yeah, I mean, the way, you know, obviously, 2026 is a pretty big wall to, you know, in terms of... And, too, assuming you didn't refinance anything, right? And obviously, a lot depends on where the markets are, right? So what we wanna control is what we control. From an operations point of view, we've got to generate as much internal cash from our operations as we can. And, you know, the way I would say it is, we have a narrow path, but there is a path for us to achieve financial stability and make sure we meet our commitments.
So, you know, having been through this for a long time, we've had narrow paths before, and it, you know, it's a sharp focus for your management, and it, you know, necessity sometimes is the mother of invention. So, you know, we certainly look at 2026 as a challenge today. We expect that the market environment will be better in 2026, but there's no guarantee of that, obviously. You know, if the market environment today was like it was the same in 2026, I think that would prove to be difficult for us, but based on our operations today.
On the other hand, if your operations continue to improve and you show the market the trends and the financial trends based on having your own network and owner economics, and you continue the cash flow in your core businesses, then that's an achievable place to get to. And so, you know, my crystal ball is it believes that we can do that, right? But I know it's gonna be a challenge for us, and we have a team that's gonna be up to that.
Got it. Thank you so much.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from John Hodulik with UBS. Please go ahead.
Michael Rollins (Analyst)
Great, maybe just a couple of follow-ups to Walt's question. First of all, can Charlie, can you guys talk about any traction you're seeing with the iPhone 15 promotion? And when you are winning customers on the Boost Infinite side, where are they coming from? And then, just lastly, clarification, what drives the uptake in compatible phones to two-thirds? Is it just the availability of new phones that work on your network? Or I'm just wondering why sort of June is the magic when you're getting to that two-thirds mark? Thanks.
Michael Kelly (EVP and Group President of Retail Wireless)
Well, this is Mike. Thanks for the question, John. Yeah, we're seeing some traction on the iPhone 15. No surprise, customers are attracted to the $60 offer and to the iPhone upgrade every year offer. We're still working through, as Charlie mentioned earlier, this is, we're a digitally native selling direct process, so it's new to us. We're still working through some of the operational kinks, but we're making progress there. So...
So I think so again, demand is coming from the other carriers, and certainly we're seeing some demand coming from the relationship that we have with Amazon and marketing into the Amazon base.
John Swieringa (President of Technology and COO)
Thanks, John, for the follow-up question on the devices. This is John Swieringa. So, let me try to simplify the earlier response. I mean, essentially, in 2024, we'll have 100% support on Android. In terms of every Android device that we distribute, will be compatible with our network. On the Apple side, it's a little bit more of a mixed bag. Newer models have our bands and can support 5G SA software with iOS 17 and above. And so really, it's about getting to that point where we've got full Android support, partial Apple, and then obviously, there's still a profitable BYOD business, where we'll bring existing devices onto our network, and in some cases, that may be on the MVNO.
But that's sort of how the forecasts roll forward, and it's really been a device-by-device, chipset-by-chipset, approach for us to get to the critical mass. Hope that helps.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Yeah, and on the Apple side-
John Swieringa (President of Technology and COO)
Yep.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Just to make sure you don't misunderstand, the 15 is fully compatible, but the 12 and the 13 and the 14, which we still sell, actually the 11, right, are not compatible. So obviously, we would, you know, those can only go on, at this point, on MVNO, absent some software downgrades or so forth and so on. But 100% of new Apples are. But that's not 100% of our business with Apple.
John Hodulik (Analyst)
Got it. Thanks, guys.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Jonathan Chaplin with New Street. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Chaplin (Analyst)
Thanks, guys. Two quick ones, if I may. First of all, I saw so what looked like some new capital going into CONX. I'm wondering if there's still an opportunity to combine Boost with CONX and help accelerate the sort of the flywheel at Boost with new outside capital. And then I'm wondering, Charlie, if you can give us an update on where discussions might stand with TPG and AT&T on DBS, now that you've got the EchoStar transaction squared away. I'm wondering if there's a path to progress on the next big deal. Thank you.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Yeah, I'll take both those. First, on the TPG question, that we're focused on, we're still getting the EchoStar-DISH transaction done. I mean, obviously, we filed a lot of stuff, but we got a ton of stuff in terms of combining the companies and the management teams and making sure that we don't wait on synergies and get those, and with Hamid starting next week, that will be very helpful. So we just don't have any plans for DIRECTV, based on that. The CONX is not probably appropriate to comment on here.
So but what I would say is that I think within our capital structure, obviously, a retail wireless company that has 7.5 million subscribers and now has an online presence is probably a valuable company. We could argue whether we've managed it as well as we should, but the fact is that that's a very valuable property. So, obviously, there could be ways that there may be... From an investment point of view, there might be people that are interested in that sort of thing. But it's also the same way with our network as well. It's—there's only four companies in the United States that have nationwide network and connectivity.
There's only one of those companies that actually does it in a 21st century architecture, where it is a data-centric network built 100% for data, of which voice is just an application. And in the world of things like AI, where data is only valuable to you, if you can utilize it, then you want IT, you want IT architecture, you want IT tools like cloud and Kubernetes and so forth and so on. And that's what we've built, and that's, that is a one-of-a-kind thing.
And I think that's where ultimately the game will be won and lost for us, which is to make sure that we're not spending all our resources trying to do exactly the same thing that everybody else has done, and that we actually go where we have unique capabilities that we can do for folks and customers that others can't. And so, I'm excited about Hamid joining next week, because that frees me up to do a little bit of that, which is where can we take this thing where we have unique advantages that perhaps you know maybe even our competition doesn't want to go, or it's not economical for them to go, and so forth.
So, you know, I don't know if that answered your question exactly, Jonathan, but that, that's the color.
Jonathan Chaplin (Analyst)
Thanks, Charlie.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from David Barden with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
David Barden (Analyst)
Hey, guys. Thanks so much for taking the questions. We've covered a lot of ground, but Charlie, could you explain your thought process on the T-Mobile 800 MHz option. You know, spending $100 million upfront, obviously, you were going to have to spend $70-something if you didn't buy it anyway. But you know, your bonds are yielding 25%. You're gonna get $1.9 billion-ish from the EchoStar deal when it closes, but you said it in your filings that that's not gonna be enough to do that deal. So how does that deal happen? And I know you love to use the word options and optionality, but I think now might be a great time to be specific and crystal clear about how you see that happening.
Then, in a related question, you've got $3 billion in debt coming due in 2024. About nine months ago, you maybe said that your intention was to take the convert that's coming due in March and use equity to refinance that. Is that still the plan? And how do you deal with the $2 billion coming due at the end of 2024? That'd be helpful. Thank you.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Yeah. Well, certainly, we're focused on the convert coming up in March. Equity, obviously, is more difficult because, obviously, the marketplace has been more negative for us over the last year on that piece. But we certainly haven't given up that equity could be a component part of that. The 800 MHz is... I probably can't give you a complete answer. First of all, we owed $72 million regardless, and we're thankful that we were able to work out with Department of Justice and T-Mobile to give us more time to put something together there. I mean, obviously, the we think there's some unique capabilities about that.
We have built it out at DISH, so, you know, we're already heavily invested, probably more than $1 billion in investing that out. And so in addition to the $100 million, you know, we've obviously invested in that. Now, you aren't gonna go—you're not gonna fall for a sunk cost fallacy, obviously, but economically, we think that 800 has some unique characteristics, and we think that there's use cases for it outside of the of everything that we're doing. And, you know, the way I would say it is, to the extent that we have a good business plan for that resource, that may be financeable. To the extent we don't, it certainly is not financeable.
It's possible, even with a good financing, a good business plan, given the marketplace today, that it's not financeable. But you know, that's certainly gonna be a focus for me for the next six months, and we'll see where we end up there. But we don't have... Obviously, we think that, I think this quarter we reduced the odds that we're gonna be successful there. We're realistic about it. The marketplace hasn't improved since last quarter, so you know, we'll wait and see. But it's a unique resource. It's important to what we're trying to do, to compete, and therefore, we're gonna give it our best shot.
David Barden (Analyst)
Appreciate the comments, Charlie. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
As a reminder, if anyone from the analyst community would like to ask a question at this time, please press star one. Our next question comes from Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Swinburne (Analyst)
Thanks. Good morning, guys. A couple of questions. On the retail wireless gross margin, service gross margins, and we've been expecting to see those get better over the course of time, and you guys signed—I know you guys signed two new MVNOs last year into this year. You were sort of double paying on back-office stuff. I think that's ended. Why, why are we not seeing better unit economics in the retail wireless business on the service side, as we move through the year? And what should we expect going forward?
Then second, you know, Charlie, I, I'm not telling you anything you don't know, but when you look at the value that the market is ascribing to the company, especially the market value of the equity and the debt, compare it to the sum of the parts value of what you've bought in spectrum and et cetera, there's a massive gap there. Is there anything that you were looking at that would lead you to change your strategy significantly? And especially in the context of just a higher interest rate environment, where you might look to unlock value differently through asset sales, spectrum sales, et cetera, than the path you're on? Thank you.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
I'll take the second question, and then maybe one of you-
Michael Kelly (EVP and Group President of Retail Wireless)
Yeah, I'll, I'll take the first. This is Mike. Ben, I'll take the first part of this. We've been focused on obtaining better customers, and so we've been putting better devices in the hands of our customers, those that will transfer over to the MNO as we build out. We've also been focused on aligning our dealer commissions with the long-term, profitable needs of the company. So the dealer commissions had some impact on margins for the quarter. That'll change over time. I don't know, Paul, if you wanna add anything?
Paul W. Orban (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, I'll just add to that. You'll see a material decrease in the cost of services related to the commissions in Q4. Q3 had, you know, more costs in it as we transitioned to the new commission structure, and Q4 will be 100% on that new commission structure.
Benjamin Swinburne (Analyst)
I think the broader question is, where do you expect margins to go? Or, you know.
Paul W. Orban (EVP and CFO)
That they will improve.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Okay. And then on the, on this. Look, on strategy, my philosophy is I look at it every day, right? The world events, a competition does something, opportunity that you didn't know existed happens. So you're looking at your strategy every day, and you're looking at that as related to what your strategy is and say: Is there anything we should change? And so, we believe we're on the right strategy. Maybe we haven't articulated it as well as many companies do, in part, because I think we play our cards a little bit closer to our vest, maybe. But, we think we're on the right strategy, but we evaluate it.
Hamid, Hamid's very good at strategy himself, and he may have some different ideas that he'll challenge us on. But the only thing I can say is, to your point, with the assets that we have and the position that we're in, other than the financial side of the markets, right, which is obviously a great challenge for us, we're pretty well positioned for the 21st century. I mean, everything's got to be connected. Wireless is the only way you can do it on a mass basis, or certainly, wired can do a lot, but not everywhere. And we have a unique... We have a very modern system with a unique set of resources. So, good management will be able to take that and operate that.
You know, that's what we, that's what, you know, certainly what we're focused on, and we've maybe not been as good as we'd like to be, but, you know, we, we think we've got the right team in place to do it.
Benjamin Swinburne (Analyst)
Okay. And if I could just ask a follow-up on a different topic, Charlie. The pay TV business is obviously important for you guys from a cash flow point of view, and you've been managing it that way for a long time. The Disney-Charter dispute this year or this quarter, or this past quarter seemed to highlight some pretty big changes in that business, and I'm wondering if that has informed or highlighted or brought your attention to sort of opportunities to sort of either drop channels or run that business in a way that's maybe more aggressive. You don't have a broadband business, you're in a different place in Charter, but you've also been arguably early on sort of paring off networks that don't work anymore economically.
I'm wondering if you took anything from that situation as you guys look ahead on pay TV. Thanks.
Gary Schanman (EVP and Group President of Video Services)
So this is Gary. Nice to meet you. Look-
Benjamin Swinburne (Analyst)
Hey, Gary.
Gary Schanman (EVP and Group President of Video Services)
Overall, we're always looking at our relationships. We're always looking at our relationships to see where we can partner strategically and where we can be innovative with partners and help to improve the experience that that's available to customers. And yes, we're also looking at, you know, where are our costs best spent and how we allocate capital efficiently. And so that's an ongoing thing we're looking at. It is important that we provide a good service to our subscribers to drive cash in the business and to make sure that they love us and they want to stay with us. But yes, we're always looking at opportunities to be more efficient, and we were generally aligned with, I think, the positioning that Charter took in terms of understanding that certain parts of the model was broken.
This company has done, you know, taken those steps in the past, especially if you look at our history with RSN. So we'll continue to look at opportunistic ways to optimize our customer experience and our allocation of capital.
Benjamin Swinburne (Analyst)
Thanks so much.
Operator (participant)
We will now take our final question from the analyst community. Members of the media on the call, please press Star One now to enter the queue to ask a question. We will begin the media portion of this call following the answer to the final analyst question. Our final analyst question comes from Brian Kraft with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Brian Kraft (Analyst)
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking the question. Can you talk about the expense outlook for the 5G business? I think there was a pretty sizable step up in cost of sales this quarter, and I'm just trying to understand if we should think about that as a good run rate going forward, or if there was anything that was, you know, maybe temporarily elevating it, or if it could even go the other way and might further step up in 4Q. And also, should we expect to see more revenue coming in on the 5G network com, 5G network side, or will you really be focusing the growth investments on retail postpaid?
And then just lastly, also on expenses in pay TV, you know, they didn't really come down this quarter, and, you know, obviously, they, they need to keep pace with the revenue declines as much as possible. Are you planning to manage these costs down more aggressively, you know, let's say, over the next couple of quarters? Thank you.
Paul W. Orban (EVP and CFO)
Hi, this is Paul here. I'll take the 5G expense question. That grew due to the fact that we placed more towers in service, so you have the OpEx that's related to that. As we continue to place more towers in service in Q4, as well as the first part of next year, you'll see that number grow. We are optimistic that we'll be able to, at some point, in the near future, start to monetize that network on top of subscribers and get revenue generation from a commercial perspective.
Gary Schanman (EVP and Group President of Video Services)
This is Gary, on the video side. Look, in terms of our sales and support costs, you know, it's a mature business, and we're always looking to manage our costs to match our subscriber and sales trends. And so we'll regularly adjust how we you know, allocate our resources to align with what we see in the market, and that's kind of what we'd like to say about that.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Yeah, and just by point of reference, and structurally, Gary had Sling, but now he has Sling and now he has all the pay TV. So structurally, you, what you have pointed out is a correct point of view, which is we haven't managed costs down as well as... And part of it was structure in the company. Now, Gary's got both sides of the fence there and now pay TV, and it's a little bit easier to work to right-size and to the right people on the right project without having to duplicate it, which is what we had to do.
The other part of it is that, you know, as we combine with EchoStar, there's some other opportunities for us within the organization as well, where we've got talented people on both sides and some synergy on the cost side.
Brian Kraft (Analyst)
If I could ask just, thank you, one follow-up. Can you, can you talk about, you know, just what the pipeline looks like at this point on the 5G enterprise side in terms of, you know, private network, RFPs, and, you know, whether there's a lot of activity there? Thank you.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Yeah. I'd say it this way, there's a lot of activity and, you know, I think there's two challenges for us. One is the actual structure and personnel. We really haven't found the replacement to Stephen Bye, who's now on our board, but was obviously on the enterprise side. So we got a little bit younger team that's working it. The second thing is the integration with EchoStar, which has a more mature enterprise organization and has already enterprise customers at a much higher level than we do. I think I saw something last week where they just did, you know, as an example, with an airline, they just did a long-term deal with an airline.
Well, why is that interesting? Well, airline—that's a satellite deal for broadband with airlines, but airlines are companies that will—they, whether it's with us or somebody else, will have private networks because they move cargo, they move people, they move—they need tremendous connectivity at airports and their hangars. They need connectivity when planes are circling and when they're on the ground, and they need—and so they're all gonna have private networks. Well, that's an interesting play because EchoStar is already dealing with some major airlines as an example. So, I think you're gonna see real progress there. I don't think you'll see progress next quarter per se.
I think you'll see it in 2024, and you'll see it because of the integration of our teams, and that's probably one where that you're gonna see that kind of jumpstarts that business for us, for you know. And I know EchoStar has a pretty big backlog as an example of enterprise customer business already. And this is just—I think my discussions with the EchoStar folks on the enterprise side is they're excited because they get something else to sell. And in fact, for the most part, some of the enterprise customers are international, but all the domestic customers are certainly people that I'm sure we are in discussion or will have discussions.
Brian Kraft (Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
We will now take questions from members of the media. Again, if you are a member of the media and would like to ask a question, please press star one now to enter the queue to ask a question. We'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone the opportunity to signal for questions. Our first media question comes from Todd Shields with Bloomberg News.
John Celentano (Analyst)
Hi, thanks for taking the question. Charlie, you said we just don't have any plans for DIRECTV. Is that forever or just based on right now while you're busy absorbing EchoStar? Thank you.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Well, that's certainly for now. I don't, I don't know how to answer that, but, you know, our focus is elsewhere.
John Celentano (Analyst)
Okay, thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from John Celentano with Inside Towers. Please go ahead.
John Celentano (Analyst)
Hi, thanks. Hi, everyone. Infrastructure question. Last figure I heard or saw about the number of cell sites deployed is around 16,000. I know you've progressed since then, but to reach the 75% of PEAs nationwide, what do you think you're gonna need in terms of cell sites?
John Swieringa (President of Technology and COO)
So this is John. Hi, thanks for the question. So at top level, we're focused on the 73% VoNR footprint, which is most major cities, most NFL markets. We'll have about 20,000 sites on air by the end of this year for macro coverage.
John Celentano (Analyst)
Mm-hmm.
John Swieringa (President of Technology and COO)
We're in the process now of doing all the RF designs and plans for the 2025 build-out. It's a slightly different kind of build in terms of rurality and other factors, but we're probably not in a position to give any more guidance on that right now. We're hard at work to put those plans together.
John Celentano (Analyst)
Okay, great. Thanks a lot.
John Swieringa (President of Technology and COO)
Yep.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Jimmy Schaeffler with the Carmel Group. Please go ahead.
Jimmy Schaeffler (Analyst)
Hey, good morning. You've highlighted the 21st century quality of your new network architecture. Do you have any data or material analysis that begins to prove that out? In other words, how much better than current cell service will DISH Wireless be?
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Yeah, this is Charlie. Jimmy, it's—I'd say it this way, from a consumer point of view, the incumbents do a great job. Their networks work extremely well, and I don't expect that we're gonna see... While VoNR voice is on the margin a little better, it's not something that would make you rush out and say, I have to have VoNR voice over, you know, 4G voice or whatever. So, I don't think there's gonna be a huge difference in the short term. I think it's a little bit, from the consumer point of view, it's a little bit how the architecture of everything goes together, including OSS, BSS, and how we might be able to change the customer experience long term.
It's no different, and you lived through this, Jimmy. So when we launched digital DBS along with DIRECTV, the ESPN was ESPN. It wasn't really that much different when we started, but we made that, you know, when it came to digitizing that interactive guide and making commercials less obtrusive and other things, parental lockout, and things like that, we actually made the experience better. We'll have to do the same thing here, but I think in the short term, there's not a big difference to differentiate our network for the consumer.
That's much different when it comes to the enterprise business, where the enterprise business is about controlling your data, making sure you get your data so you can improve your product, make it safer, make it cheaper, make it more innovative, gain market share of the competition, make sure that you're reducing climate change and sensors and all the kind of things that you might need, where you have control over your data. And that's very difficult to do with incumbent networks. And so that's why I'm bullish on that side of our business, because I think we have strategic advantages, and that's why I'm excited about bringing the EchoStar team, or working with the EchoStar team, who's already down that path with satellite.
And now we're just gonna add one more tool to that. So, I'm not saying we won't have differentiation for the consumers. I think we will in a number of, in a number of ways, but realistically, you know, you're not gonna see too much difference. Now, on the network side, realize our OpEx and CapEx, and the actual cost of constructing network is much less. So we're getting a lot more bang for our, for our money, which ultimately, you know, can lead to lower costs for consumers.
Jimmy Schaeffler (Analyst)
Charlie, one more quick question. Do you see anything on the fixed wireless access side that entices you or interests you right now?
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Yeah. Yeah, there's a bunch of stuff that I think is interesting, that, you know, the obviously, we've been disappointed that the FCC hasn't ruled on our 12 GHz fixed wireless. You know, they ruled for 12 GHz for satellite in a matter of months, and we've been at it for 5 years on the terrestrial side. The only interference from it is with ourself, right? Is to DBS. So it... And so we've said we're not obviously gonna interfere with ourself, so, you know, we're hopeful that that's a place that fixed wireless can go.
The other part of it that I don't – that I'm – the reason I'm a little cautious is, the government's gonna spend, you know, somewhere between $40 billion and $100 billion on broadband, and they set rules, and it's even state by state now, and the economics of fixed wireless now are being decided by government agencies. And so if it... If everything was fair and a level playing field, and the best technology won, I would be unbelievably bullish on fixed wireless.
The problem is, if somebody is getting a subsidy, let's say, for fiber, to run it 10 miles out to a farmhouse for $100,000, and the government's gonna pay for that, you're not gonna compete with that, with your-- even though it's only $1,000 on fixed wireless, you're not gonna compete with that $100,000 bill because you have to pay the $1,000 as a private company, and the government pays the $100,000 subsidy. So, until we see that sorted out on government policy, it's gonna be a little bit tricky on the fixed wireless side. And so-
Jimmy Schaeffler (Analyst)
Charlie, do-
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
That gives-
Jimmy Schaeffler (Analyst)
Charlie, Charlie, do you see any companies out there that are massively improving the capabilities of fixed wireless so that it would get around some of that eventually?
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Again, all I can say is the government is gonna pick winners and losers in that, and they're gonna pick winners and losers in technology, and some companies are gonna do a great job with. Some companies, as we know from past government subsidies, we know that some companies will do a great job, and that money will be well spent. And, you know, electricity was one of those things long term, you know, that happened. The interstate highway system was one of those things. But we've also seen a lot of times where that money's wasted, you know, where perhaps fixed wire, you know, broadband goes where there already is broadband. And, you know, maybe we haven't added new customers to that.
And so there'll be some money that'll be wasted there, and we'll just have to kind of see where, you know, that goes. But it's hard for our board to look at a return on investment on fixed wireless when we don't know if we're competing against the government subsidy or if we're competing against the marketplace. And where we compete against the marketplace, we're very bullish.
Jimmy Schaeffler (Analyst)
Great. Thank you.
Charlie Ergen (Co-founder and Chairman)
Thanks, Jimmy. Operator, I understand that was the last question from the media, so thank you, everyone, for joining, and we'll talk to you again next quarter.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.