Delek US - Q3 2023
November 7, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, and welcome to the Delek US third quarter earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Rosy Zuklic, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Rosy Zuklic (VP of Investor Relations and Market Intelligence)
Good morning, and welcome to the Delek US third quarter earnings conference call. Participants on today's call will include Avigal Soreq, President and CEO; Joseph Israel, EVP Operations; Reuven Spiegel, EVP and Chief Financial Officer; Mark Hobbs, EVP Corporate Development. Today's presentation material can be found on the Investor Relations section of the Delek US website. Slide two contains our safe harbor statement regarding forward-looking statements. We'll be making forward-looking statements during today's call. The statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from today's comments. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included here, as well as in our SEC filings. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Avigal Soreq for opening remarks.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Thank you, Rosy. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. We delivered strong third quarter results. All segments performed well. Our team remains focused and drove improvements across our businesses. I thank each member of our Delek team for their contribution. From a macro perspective, during the quarter, we saw a significant volatility in the markets. Gasoline crack weakened, diesel crack remained strong, driven by inventory levels continued at five-year lows. Given our higher distillate production relative to our peers, we are at a competitive advantage. The refining segment ran well. We achieved a record total throughput during the quarter. Joseph will provide more details on our refinery operation in his remarks. In logistics, we are investing in continued growth of our business. We benefited from our favorable Permian location, which led to another record quarter.
Given our strong portfolio performance, we are confident in DKL's ability to exceed $100 million in quarterly EBITDA run rate by the fourth quarter of this year. Moving to slide four, reflecting on my first year as the CEO of Delek, we have much to be proud of. When I returned to Delek, I outlined my focus areas: safe and reliable operations, being shareholder-friendly and having strong balance sheet, unlocking the sum of the parts value, and improving the efficiency of our cost structure. We are very focused on these objectives. Our dedication to see each one of them to completion has not wavered. We have made progress in all of them. On the operation side, we enhanced our team with experienced talent. Together, we streamlined the structure and process throughout our operation. This has led to a strong safety results.
We achieve a total record throughput in our refining system. Earlier in the year, we successfully completed the Tyler turnaround with zero recordables on time and on budget. Post-turnaround, the refinery is performing at higher yield and, most importantly, record capture rates. On financial and shareholder returns, over the past year, our logistics business achieved record EBITDA quarters. In Q3, retail achieved its highest EBITDA since COVID. We continue to be a shareholder friendly. Through October, we repurchased $85 million of shares, and including the latest increase, raised the dividend five times in a row. We improved our financial position by using our strong cash flow to reduce our net debt by $476 million during the year. From a strategic point of view, our $100 million cost reduction effort are well underway, and we are seeing early results.
On unlocking value from some of the parts, we have a clear strategy, and we are well on our way to meet our objectives. As you can see, we have been consistent. This resulted in tangible progress. Importantly, the achievements I just outlined position us well for the mid-cycle market environment, both from an operation and financial standpoint. In closing, we are pleased with our strong quarter. We will continue to drive further improvements and unlock value from our business. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Joseph, who will provide additional detail on our operation.
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
... Thank you, Avigal. Moving to slide four. In the third quarter, our team processed a record high 306,000 barrels per day of total throughput. The focus on people, process, and equipment helps us to build a solid organization to support safe and reliable operations. In the third quarter, the combination of favorable market conditions and strong operations performance led to $286 million of Adjusted EBITDA contribution by the refining segment. In Tyler, total throughput in the third quarter was approximately 76,000 barrels per day. Production margin in the quarter was $23.66 per barrel, reflecting improved reliability, yield recovery, and a strong capture rate of 73%.
Operating expenses were $4.74 per barrel, including elevated utility costs at approximately $0.50 per barrel, due to high demand for electricity in the state of Texas late in the summer. In the fourth quarter, the estimated total throughput in Tyler is in the 73,000-76,000 barrels per day range. In El Dorado, total throughput in the quarter was approximately 84,000 barrels per day. Our production margin was $12.57 per barrel. Operating expenses were $4.36 per barrel. Estimated throughput for the quarter, for the fourth quarter, is in the 81,000-84,000 barrels per day range. In Big Spring, total throughput for the quarter was approximately 65,000 barrels per day, driven by maintenance work, but still well within our guidance range.
Our production margin was $15.92 per barrel, including an estimated unfavorable $3.50 per barrel impact from the maintenance activities. Operating expenses in Big Spring were $8.37 per barrel, including approximately $0.80 per barrel of the unplanned activities, and an additional $0.70 per barrel related to the elevated utility cost. In October, we completed a planned outage to replace reformer catalyst in a couple of reactors. As a result, the estimated fourth quarter throughput in Big Spring is in the 61,000-64,000 barrels per day range. We are very excited with our progress in Big Spring Refinery. We have the right leadership team in place, and we are pushing operational excellence to the next level.
In the third quarter, we already improved throughput capture and OpEx compared with the second quarter, and going forward, we are planning for the following improvements at the controllable level. Throughput up approximately 5,000 barrels per day from our year-to-date 66,500 barrels per day performance level. Capture up 15%-20% from our year-to-date 52.6% level. We are expecting to realize 65% of the improvement in 2024, and the remaining 35% in 2025. In Krotz Springs, total throughput was approximately 81,000 barrels per day. Our production margin was $12.45 per barrel, and operating expenses were $5 per barrel. Planned throughput in the fourth quarter is in the 77,000-81,000 barrels per day range.
In the third quarter, wholesale and asphalt marketing added about $35 million to the refining segment earnings, compared with $80 million in the second quarter. These results are outside of our reported margins at each of the refineries and their associated capture rates. Wholesale marketing contributed about $20 million, down from approximately $60 million in the second quarter, and asphalt marketing contributed approximately $15 million, compared with about $20 million in the second quarter. Contribution of both businesses was impacted by rising oil price, but more importantly, allowed us to pull inventory even with record high throughput for our refining system. The resilient demand in our niche markets and the access to rack blending are a significant strength of our integrated downstream business models.
With regards to the fourth quarter, our refining system plant throughput is in the 292-305 thousand barrels per day range. We are well positioned to capture strong distillate margin environment with our 42% distillate yield capability. As a reminder, no major turnaround is planned until the fourth quarter of 2024 in Krotz Springs. In DKL, the team delivered another record quarter under operational excellence, focus, and growth. I will now turn the call over to Rosy for the financial variance.
Rosy Zuklic (VP of Investor Relations and Market Intelligence)
Thanks, Joseph. Starting on slide six 6. For the third quarter of 2023, Delek US had a net income of $129 million or $1.97 per share. Adjusted net income was $132 million, or $2.02 per share, and adjusted EBITDA was $345 million. Cash flow from operations was $433 million. On slide seven, we provide a waterfall of our adjusted EBITDA by segment from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2023. The increase was primarily from improved results in refining, driven by higher throughput and cracks in the third quarter. Logistics had a record quarter of, at nearly $97 million, and retail had another strong quarter with EBITDA of $16 million. Corporate segment costs increased compared with last quarter, largely due to bonus accruals.
Moving to slide eight to discuss cash flow. We built $80 million in cash during the quarter, ending the third quarter with a balance of $902 million. The $433 million in cash flow from operations reflects the strong performance of the quarter. Included in this amount is $177 million in favorable working capital. This was largely from improved inventory management. Investing activities of $59 million is mainly for capital expenditures. Financing activities of $294 million primarily reflects pay down of debt and return to shareholders. This includes $176 million of debt repayment, $25 million in buybacks, $15 million in dividends, and $10 million in distribution payments. On slide nine, we show capital expenditures.
Year to date, total company, we have spent $302 million. We estimate the full year CapEx to be in the range of $380 million-$390 million before any reimbursements. We expect to receive approximately $20 million of insurance proceeds, growth CapEx, partially funded by producers, as well as other reimbursements. Including this, net capital expenditures for the year is in the range of $360 million-$370 million. Net debt is broken out between Delek and Delek Logistics on slide 10. During the quarter, we built $80 million of cash and paid down $176 million of debt, ending the quarter with a net cash position. Slide 11 covers outlook items for the fourth quarter of 2023.
In addition to the throughput guidance Joseph provided, we expect operating expenses to be between $210 million and $220 million, G&A to be between $65 million and $70 million, D&A to be between $90 million and $95 million, and net interest expense to be between $80 million and $85 million. We will now open the line for questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Manav Gupta with UBS. Please go ahead.
Manav Gupta (Senior Equity Research Analyst, Energy)
Hey, guys. First of all, congrats. Big improvement from both Tyler and El Dorado. So help us understand what were the factors helping you out over there? And then as it relates to Big Spring, was it just a turnaround and we shouldn't be worried that when you actually start running hard in Q4, some of the issues you saw would be behind you? So if you could talk about those things.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Hey, Manav, it's Avigal. Thank you for the question. And yes, you're right. We see a big improvement, both places, and that we can address for a few areas. On Tyler, it's a lot of work that's being done over the turnaround. We see the fruit of it, both on the product mix and the yield. Obviously, we are very fortunate with the Tyler market over there. We see the city growing, and our ability to deploy product is just great. So that's a very solid market. In El Dorado, we... To be honest, El Dorado is a great asset with capabilities, hydrogen plant, reformer, and other great assets that we are just starting to tap into what we can make out of it, and we are very optimistic about it as well.
I think that Joseph touched a little bit on Big Spring in his prepared remark, but I will allow Joseph to finish the answer.
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Yeah, thank you. We are very excited with our progress. So when you look at Tyler, our 45% distillate yield is a big plus, especially end of the third quarter, going to this quarter and for the future curve. Obviously, the lower RVO price and the better margin environment also supported our capture, both in Tyler and El Dorado. With regards to Big Spring, we are very, very happy with the progress there. We have the right management team. We feel that things are under control as we implement best practice. We are very confident to share with you our plans in Big Spring, arise increasing throughput and expecting a much higher capture rate. And to answer your question, we are not worried about the turnaround being about two years from now.
We feel good about the mechanical integrity and our ability to operate it at a higher bar. So excited.
Manav Gupta (Senior Equity Research Analyst, Energy)
So perfect. My quick follow-up here is as it relates to supply, marketing, and other, which was formerly your trading and supply, a big swing quarter-over-quarter. I know behind the scenes, Rosy has been working very hard in trying to explain to the street what are the metrics that, you know, drive that performance. But if you could help us understand some of the, you know, reasons there was such a big swing in this segment, quarter-over-quarter.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Yeah, thanks, Manav, and obviously, in that line, there would be a bit more volatility than other lines. And but, Joseph, I know that you have a lot of passion around this. Why, why don't you give a more wider view?
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Okay. So we provided information about the asphalt and wholesale marketing results. Asphalt made $15 million, and wholesale marketing made $20 million. Both are lower than previous quarter results due to oil price increase. You know that lag in pricing provide always a headwind for these type of businesses. The other component in supply and marketing results is the inventory management and the derivatives to really mitigate risk.
Manav Gupta (Senior Equity Research Analyst, Energy)
Thanks, guys. Congrats on a good quarter and good to see pay down of debt. Thank you.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
We appreciate it, Manav. Have a good day.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Neil Mehta (Managing Director and Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research)
Yeah, thank you, and hope everybody's family is doing okay back home, Avigal, in particular.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Thank you for the call.
Neil Mehta (Managing Director and Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research)
Um, well-
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Appreciate it.
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Thank you.
Neil Mehta (Managing Director and Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research)
Awesome. Hey, hey, so again, a very good quarter there at Tyler. We'd just love your perspective on the markets right now. We see this big dislocation in cracks between gasoline and distillate, and how does this play out as we move into 2024? How much of the weakness in gasoline is just seasonal, as we're trading winter grade versus something more structural? And then, do you see the distillate side of the equation normalizing, given the weakness in gasoline through yield switch? So just talk us through the product markets and how they evolve as we set up into 2024.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Yeah, Neil, I would love to do that. Obviously, USD, as you can all see, is in the five-year low in terms of inventories. That determine the majority of the crack, the way we see it on the distillate. Obviously, we don't really know what the winter in Europe gonna yield, but that's another upside, if it's gonna yield for a colder winter. On the gasoline side, obviously, we have seen, and we said that in the propeller market, we've seen a weakness. Some of that, as you mentioned, is seasonal, and some of that... I think most of it is seasonal. We believe that the demand for gasoline is solid. Our markets are pretty much resilient for demand.
You can see another testimony that we were able to deploy our to reduce inventory while other companies had a problem to deploy products. So that's another testimony to our market resilience, and this is more micro than macro, but that's another something to note. The demand in the U.S., as we see it, is still very solid, and I think the market, they're gonna correct itself. I think that we see more supply going off the market, as I mentioned a few times, during COVID versus the change in demand. So overall, we think it's the right place to be.
Neil Mehta (Managing Director and Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research)
Thanks, guys. The follow-up is just on how we're thinking about unlocking some of the parts value. You, Avigal, spent a bunch of time talking about this as you stepped in. You know, how do you transfer some of the value that fits that DKL and accrue it to the DK at the parent level? You know, talk about the different strategies that you're approaching this with, and what inning are you in, in terms of actually unlocking that value?
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Yeah. So, Neil, you know, you know that I said it many times, and that's our commitment. We're gonna make it happen. We're gonna make the right thing happen for both shareholders, and we didn't change our mind or went in another direction. That's gonna happen. I will start, and then I know Mark wants to have a lot of energy on that and wants to say a few words about that as well. But please re-remember that while we are still working on that very hard, we came up with a cost reduction, which is a great thing for mid-cycle if it presents itself. The safety and reliability initiative yields a higher throughput. And we obviously have an EBITDA reduction, Neil, in order to enhance the balance sheet.
And I'm very proud of Reuven and his team being able to be at the net zero debt on the DK level. Saying all of that, some of the part, and the, allowing the value to be on the, the DK to be on the De- Delek side is gonna happen. And maybe, Mark, you wanna say a few words around that?
Mark Hobbs (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, sure. Thanks, Avigal, and thanks, Neil, for the question. As I've mentioned on prior calls and discussions that we've had specifically, you know, we've evaluated a myriad of options and alternatives that are available to us, and we have strong conviction around the actions we need to take and what we would like to achieve through some of the parts. And as Avigal mentioned in his prepared remarks, we're working very hard towards those objectives.
You know, I don't want to say anything specific, and I would love to be more specific around timing, but at this point in time, we don't have anything that we feel that we can tell you other than, you know, our focus is on, you know, preserving our ability to perform well through the cycle for all through all the steps that Avigal and others on the call have mentioned. And the other thing that we're really focused on is, in anything we do, preserving significant amount of liquidity across our business so that we can take advantage of accretive growth opportunities that we truly believe are in front of us going forward.
Look, I would just finish with just saying, look, we are committed to extracting value, you know, across our businesses where we see opportunities to do so.
Neil Mehta (Managing Director and Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research)
All right. Thanks, Mark.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Ryan Todd (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Great, thanks. Maybe a question on, on CapEx for you as we look into 2024. I know that you had said that from a maintenance point of view, you don't have another major turnaround until, until Krotz in the, the fourth quarter of next year. Can you maybe talk about how you would think about some of the moving pieces on capital as we look into 2024, and, how we should think about a run rate, there in the next year?
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Yeah, Ryan, thanks for the question. Ryan, we are very disciplined about capital deployment. We've demonstrated over and over, both on the shareholder and debt. So that's the puzzle. We are working on that every day, all day. Regarding 2024, specific to your, to your question, I don't want to be ahead of myself. We are still finalizing our plan for 2023, for 2024. But directionally, we are looking at on a lower number than 2023.
Ryan Todd (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. Perfect. Thanks. And then maybe just a follow-up on your comments. Obviously, you know, you're at a zero net debt balance sheet position there at Delek on an unconsolidated basis. How should we think about your priorities here? You've been paying down debt, you've been buying back some shares. Is there further work on the balance sheet that you wanna do, or should we expect a, you know, a shift towards an increase in share of cash flow directed towards shareholder returns? So maybe, you know, high level, how are you thinking about that as we think about the coming quarters?
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Yeah, absolutely, Ryan, and I will provide more kind of overview about the way we think about capital allocation. So first of all, we increased dividend five times in a row, as you can see, and our intent is to be able to maintain dividend towards cycle. So that's pretty clear. We said that many times. Regarding debt and the return to shareholder, we took a very balanced approach between the two. Obviously, when we have opportunity to give back to investor, we were not shy, we were aggressive with that, and that's gonna be the approach going forward. But we have a balanced approach, and we're still gonna do that. It's executing on some of the parts, it's top priority. We're gonna do that, and that's gonna play a big role in that equation as well.
Stay tuned.
Ryan Todd (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Diego Luque with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Diego Luque (Community Lending Officer)
Hi, guys. Thanks for having me on here. I also offer my thoughts for you guys in light of what Neil said earlier. I'd like to hit a housekeeping point first, if I may, which is, I think Rosy mentioned the working capital move in the quarter, and I think she said better inventory management or words to that effect. Is that? Will that reverse, or are we now looking at a permanent downward reset in working capital?
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Hey, Diego, good morning. I will let Reuven talk about working capital just a little bit.
Reuven Spiegel (EVP and CFO)
Hi, Diego. So the short answer is it will not revert itself. The longer answer, that we have been working on a zero-based budget initiative that included a few components. One of them was the cost reduction initiative, and the other one was also changing our process about how we manage inventory. That process change was tested, and that's why we did not execute on it until this quarter. But after it was tested, we executed on it, on the new process this quarter, and that helped us to reduce inventory by roughly 2.5 million barrels. Now, there will be some fluctuations going forward, but we're not gonna revert back to the old levels of inventory.
Diego Luque (Community Lending Officer)
... So we can, we can treat that additional cash flow then as, as permanent?
Reuven Spiegel (EVP and CFO)
Most of it, yes.
Diego Luque (Community Lending Officer)
Okay, thank you. My follow-up is really on the reliability improvements, and I'm wondering, I mean, obviously, one of the key things we think about is what the free cash flow capacity of the portfolio looks like at mid-cycle. And a key input to that is obviously operating costs and capital, sustaining capital costs. So I'm wondering if you can, you know, just give us some guideposts on both of those things. To achieve the higher reliability, what does it mean for OpEx? What does it mean for sustaining capital?
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
So, Diego, I will start, and I will let Reuven and or Joseph chime in. On the OpEx, on the OpEx side, you remember, Diego, when the margin were at the all-time high, pretty much, we started the program, that the cost reduction. In the beginning, no one really understood what we are—why we are doing what we are doing, but we wanted to be, to have a long runway in order to do it right. We didn't want to rush into that. And that's obviously gonna, gonna improve our cost base, both on the OpEx, on the G&A, on a relative basis versus what we start. Obviously, gonna always gonna have a fluctuation in OpEx and G&A, G&A based upon APM performance and based upon electricity, power, and et cetera, like Joseph outlined.
But that, over time, make us or making us very much ready for the mid-cycle that might present itself. That's on the... Joseph, any, any you wanna add on that?
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
I will only add by reminding everyone that a previous earnings call, we discussed the $1 per barrel of additional OpEx in Big Spring just for the second half of this year. So it wi ll include the 4Q to really address integrity, reliability opportunities that are giving us those fruits. So not much more than that, and really nothing on the CapEx side that we need to accomplish to get all the benefits that we discussed earlier.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
So that give you the kind of a more overview, Diego, on the P&L initiative we started ahead of time. Obviously, the balance sheet, as Reuven said, is the working capital in some of the part. So for us, it's we were ahead of, ahead of the game, preparing ourselves and not waited for the, for the clock to turn.
Diego Luque (Community Lending Officer)
Great stuff. Thanks so much, and Joseph, look forward to seeing you next week.
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Great. Good to see you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead.
Matthew Blair (Managing Director, Refiners, Chemicals, and Renewable Fuels)
Hey, good morning. Joseph, you outlined some big expected improvements in Big Spring refining margin capture. Could you talk a little bit about what's driving that? Does that involve any sort of commercial efforts to perhaps increase your exposure to Arizona, or is this more on the refining side in terms of reliability and yield improvement?
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Matt, at this point, it's really the fundamentals, and this is the low-hanging fruits, no rocket science there, and this is the beauty of it. By putting the right leadership team out there and really implementing the best practice and the fundamentals on the process side, on the refining side, will improve reliability. And as you know, with better reliability comes the capture and the OpEx side. What you are talking about is really my phase II and III. When it goes to commercial and crude selection and logistics and other opportunities, it will really start to get fun.
Matthew Blair (Managing Director, Refiners, Chemicals, and Renewable Fuels)
Looking forward to it. And then on the wholesale and asphalt contribution, I believe it was $35 million in the third quarter versus $80 million in the second quarter. What is like a normalized, either quarter or year for this business?
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Yeah, we provided the guidance, I think, in the previous quarter when we opened up that supply and marketing line for you guys to model. So asphalt is seasonal, as you know. First and fourth quarter is about $5 million contribution in average, not including oil price changes. Then in the second and third quarter, during the season, it's gonna be more like $20 million per quarter. Wholesale is more stable. It's gonna be between $20million-$40 million a quarter.
Matthew Blair (Managing Director, Refiners, Chemicals, and Renewable Fuels)
Sounds good. Thank you.
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Thank you, Matthew.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Paul Cheng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Good morning, Paul.
Paul Cheng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
May I first just want to add my best wishes for everyone that their family in Israel, and hope everyone is good and okay.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Thank you, thank you, Paul. I appreciate the warmth.
Paul Cheng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
I have a quick question. That, Reuven, that in the third quarter, is there any meaningful impact from the benefit of, mark-to-market, on the RVO due to the much lower RIN prices?
Reuven Spiegel (EVP and CFO)
Nope.
And that, maybe this is for Joseph. In the fourth quarter, we have, in the gasoline market, from a margin standpoint, some opposing forces. The blending and the line level blending economy are extremely good.
...On the other hand, that the gasoline crack is sales poor. So when we combine that, how your gasoline yield in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter is going to look like? Historically, I think the industry probably see a couple% increase sequentially, but that given the dynamic we see it that what is your operating plan currently suggesting?
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
You are absolutely right. The butane is going our favor, but the crack is going the other way. Also, the RVO is a tailwind other than headwinds for us. Big picture, gasoline cracks, crack spread still low versus what we've seen last year, but it's not off the charts, on a five-three-two basis, Gulf Coast versus historical at Q4. So, we remain very optimistic about the future. I don't know, Joseph, if you have anything to add to that?
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Yeah, just to wrap it up. So other than Krotz Springs, which is producing light products to the Colonial Pipeline, really the rest of our system is rack sales-based, and this what provides us the access to blending and gives us the opportunity versus our average peer to participate in this opportunity. So we are definitely looking on different things in the fourth quarter on a butane blending, like you say, and then the sour heavy spreads will motivate us to look at the lower cost grade on the crude side as we're going into it and take, you know, the advantage from it.
Speaker 15
Joseph, do you expect the fourth quarter gasoline yield going to be higher than the third quarter?
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
I don't think so. We are a distillate mode, and we will probably be as close as we can to 42%.
Paul Cheng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. So even with the more butane blending and all that, you're not expecting the yield going to be higher?
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Agreed. It's not gonna be enough unless there is a significant change in gasoline distillate economics later in the quarter, which hard to believe.
Paul Cheng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. A final one for me. Ones that you sort of fixed up, Big Spring, what's the longer term normal refinery run that we should expect on an annual basis for your system? And also, what is the cash operating cost under, let's call it, a $4 Henry Hub? Any kind of guidance that you can give us, and what is the sustaining CapEx for the company going to look like?
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Yeah, I'll start with the Big Spring throughput. So in our plan, we're basically going back to where Big Spring was in the past. We're not trying to reinvent the wheel, and fortunately, most of it, again, is low-hanging fruit. So we gave very precise estimates how we were looking at things. So 66.5 is the year-to-date throughput. We spoke about adding 5,000 barrels today, and I'm talking about calendar type of throughput. I'm not talking about peak. So you're looking at 71, low 70s really on the ongoing as a new routine. And we're talking about starting really in 2024, 2025. So this is not something for the long run. It's, it's really coming. And, with the 71, we are still leaving a, you know, the normal 4% or 5% downtime for potential surprises, right?
We're gonna run it in the normal industry utilization rate. Can you please repeat your Henry Hub?
Paul Cheng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Yeah. Yeah, I'm just looking at not even just on Big Spring, but your total system.
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Yep.
Paul Cheng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Before facility, that what is a normal average annualized, one way we can assume, and then also under that status, if we assume Henry Hub around $4, what will be a normalized annual cash operating cost in your refining system? And what is the sustaining CapEx we can assume for your refining system?
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Our quarter, our OpEx was $5.48 per barrel for the system. This happened with still issues in, in Big Spring. We spoke about the several things that affected us. Eighty cents for the unplanned maintenance, seventy cents for the elevated utility cost, and a dollar we gave for reliability. What I'm trying to say, Big Spring is probably more like $5.50 going forward than $8.37. You're looking at overall OpEx for the system under $5 per barrel. We think that this will happen even with the long term Henry Hub pricing for natural gas and energy costs.
Paul Cheng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. How about sustaining CapEx?
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
So, obviously, it's a bigger question because there is years with turnaround and sometimes without turnaround. It's the question: the scope of the turnaround. So I don't think we're gonna do a good service by just giving a number without context. So going back to our earlier comment about the capital, our commitment is to be very disciplined with capital deployment like we demonstrate, and that's what we're going to do, but it's very hard to say to pin to a number. I hope that you-
Paul Cheng (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. Yep, understand. Thank you.
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Thank you.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Thank you, Paul.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Roger Read with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Roger Read (Senior Energy Analyst)
Yeah, thanks. Good morning.
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Good morning.
Roger Read (Senior Energy Analyst)
Apologies for joining a little late, so if I'm asking a question that's been asked, please let me know. Maybe digging a little deeper into Big Spring and juxtapose that with the performance at Tyler this quarter. Joseph, I know you were brought in to kind of improve operations. Is there a takeaway from what we see at Tyler coming out of the turnaround versus what you'd like to do at Big Spring in the coming, you know, let's call it months, quarters, years until its next scheduled turnaround?
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Yeah, Roger, with your permission, I will start and then Joseph will add some comments around it. Tyler is a good way to see how good operation become after turnaround, in terms of both TIRR, MTBF, and also capture. And that's something that we obviously can take from one turnaround to another and improve as long as the time goes by. Joseph has a lot of energy around Big Spring, and maybe you want to add around it, Big Spring? I think we spoke about it, but-
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Yeah.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
You can repeat.
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
In Tyler, I think the turnaround scope was excellent. It was right. And beyond just maintenance, the team improved the vacuum tower bottoms and allowed a better quality of VGO going to the FCC, providing us with better yields and catalyst replacement on the reformer was exactly what we needed, and we see the results. The rest for the system, and mainly for Big Spring, is just all about the fundamentals. And it's about the focus on the right things, and it's the culture, and it's the right people in the right place that we're leading it, and the processes and the procedures. These are not costly type of investments, but the efforts are bringing us fruits and allowing us to commit on a much better performance, especially in Big Spring, going forward.
Roger Read (Senior Energy Analyst)
Okay. And then, just as a follow-up, curious with Krotz Springs, you know, in terms of its product yield, I know it's historically had a little less of a clean diesel yield relative to its total distillate yield. Any changes there or anything you're seeing in terms of how that product is being able to move into the market?
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
No, generally speaking, no. KSR is a refinery that basically is on the Colonial, so that's the deployment, that's the distribution channel we have. For the moment, we had some improvement with it, but nothing that was a meaningful discussion. We're obviously seeing the fruits of our hard labor and the great commitment over there to a great operation and a great safety records and a great yield. So we are very pleased with KSR, and we see the improvement over time, so more to come.
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Yeah, the one thing to remember about Krotz Springs, even though it's a high sulfur diesel, you're still in the Gulf Coast area, and you have plenty of customers that see a lot of value in this product in different uses. And the other thing, the crude unit configuration is very special, with almost 20,000 barrels per day of jet fuel in the crude unit. All in all, distillate yield in Krotz Springs is in the high 30s%, and which will allow them to compete long term.
Roger Read (Senior Energy Analyst)
Okay, thank you.
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Thank you, Roger.
Operator (participant)
Our next question is from John Royall with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
John Royall (Executive Director)
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So, my first one to follow up on the capital allocation question. You're sitting today at zero parent net debt, which you've spoken about, which is a great spot to be in. I'm wondering how capital allocation could be impacted by a lower crack environment, and if you're willing to lever up a little from here, should the environment deteriorate, just in the interest of keeping capital returns at a strong pace.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
So, John, thank you for the question. We're going to remain disciplined. Obviously, there is once we feel... First of all, we want to maintain dividend toward the cycle. That's one thing we need to check the box. If we believe that allocation capital to buy back, we will not be able to, we will not be shy to do so like we did in the past. We'll do that again, and we're obviously looking at the opportunity that present themselves in the market. So we have all the toolbox to deploy on the right opportunity, and keeping good return to shareholder is a very high priority for us.
John Royall (Executive Director)
Great. Thanks, Avigal. And then, last quarter, you had mentioned just very broadly, you had some very high returning and, and presumably, relatively quick hit, projects in refining that you may think about for next year. And, I think you touched on it again on this call. And, can you maybe just give us some color around, what those projects are and just expand on those opportunities a little?
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
... Yeah, so we, again, we don't want to get ahead of ourselves and to give exactly, because we didn't finish the planning process around it and approving them with our board of director. But we definitely have some very encouraging projects on the table, and we'll disclose them as once once we can. But again, number one thing about capital is discipline, right? Discipline and return to shareholders. So we're maintaining very disciplined about the way we deploy capital and want to be good steward of our shareholders. Joseph, you want to add around it?
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Yeah, I would just say that, there are all a low cycle return type of projects, you know, that fund themselves in less than 24 months. They are all about liquid yield recovery, and this is the type of project you will expect us to look very closely.
John Royall (Executive Director)
Great. Thank you very much.
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Thank you, Joe.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Jason Gabelman with Cowen. Please go ahead.
Jason Daniel Gabelman (Director of Energy Equity Research)
Yeah. Hey, morning. Just wanted to extend my thoughts and hope everyone's families are safe. I wanted to ask first about the supply and marketing line item, and I know you provided some incremental guidance around that new line item last quarter to help us forecast something that was perhaps more ratable. It's been a bit volatile last quarter to this quarter and not necessarily in line with what was forecast. And I'm wondering how much of that is just around trading, and it seems like, I think 2Q was a stronger trading quarter in that line, and 3Q was weaker. So should we expect to see that in this new line item where the trading impacts kind of offset quarter to quarter and the underlying results trend in line with what you've guided to?
I have a follow-up. Thanks.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Yeah, thank you for the question, and thank you for the warm words. First of all, we all understand that how to change the world of marketing and not trading because of a reason. We are looking at on that as a risk reduction tool and not adding risk to the table. So we need to remember that. Obviously, when oil prices goes up, there is a bit of a volatility to reduce risk and take risk off the table. And as Joseph mentioned a few times on the call, wholesale has a volatility, and especially asphalt, with the prices goes up. So we are looking on that line, how to reduce risk and how to deploy product and how to get as long as a sustainable income, as much as we possibly can.
It's going to be more volatile than pure capture rate, as you can imagine, but we are not deploying just a huge trading position into the market. We are trying to see how we can reduce risk.
Jason Daniel Gabelman (Director of Energy Equity Research)
Okay, to be clear, it's not necessarily that the derivative impacts in one quarter will tend to reverse in the subsequent quarter, 'cause that's what seemed to happen in 2Q to 3Q.
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
Right. So when we talk derivatives, we talk about hedging what is outside of the natural inventory range, right? Above or under. When we haven't been reliable, like in the third quarter in Big Spring, we spoke about the outages and the fact that we are fixing it, and the future will be much better there. What happens is, when you build inventories and oil price is going up, we are having very good dynamics on the cost of goods side, right? We are making money on the physical side. The hedging are there to keep you on the crack of the day. This is what we are asked to do by our investors, and these are the type of derivatives.
Jason Daniel Gabelman (Director of Energy Equity Research)
Okay.
Joseph Israel (EVP, President, Refining, and Renewables)
I'm sure it makes sense to you, right?
Jason Daniel Gabelman (Director of Energy Equity Research)
Yeah. All right. Yeah, that's a really helpful color. And my follow-up is... Sorry, I'm going to go back to the strategic unlock of value. If I look on your slide, you say, you know, you have a clear strategy and on plan to meet our objectives. When I think about what your objectives were when you put the strategic unlock forward, it was primarily around deconsolidating DKL, DKL's debt. Is that still the objective as we sit one year later? And when you say you're on plan, you know, it's been a year since you laid out kind of the plan and just wonder, it implies perhaps there is some timeline that you have in mind.
So I'm going to push again to see if you can elaborate on what you're thinking in terms of timeline. Thanks.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Yeah. So, you're absolutely correct. That's the goal, and we're going to achieve it. I'm not going to commit to a time. Committing to a time, I impact the deal, and you don't want me to do that. You do- you want, you want me to make the right deal on the right timing and to, bring, value to shareholders. There is no. We are not just going to rush for a deal, but we are decisive. So our state of mind is not wavered, and we're going to make it. We're going to make it, and we're going to make it right.
Jason Daniel Gabelman (Director of Energy Equity Research)
Yeah. Okay. Understood. I wasn't asking quite to commit to a time as much as it says you're on plan, which implies there is some internal timeline that you have in mind. And just was wondering if that was a fair read. But I'll, I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Thank you. I appreciate it.
Operator (participant)
This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Avigal Soreq for any closing remarks.
Avigal Soreq (President and CEO)
Yes, Sarah, thank you for leading us today. I want to thank my colleagues around the table here for a great quarter, to our board of directors, and foremost our employees and investors for being with us, and we'll go back next quarter and report again. Thank you so much. Have a good day.
Operator (participant)
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.