DKNG Q1 2025: Live Betting Tops 50% of Handle, MLB +36% YoY
- Live Betting Momentum: Management highlighted that live betting now accounts for over 50% of total handle with MLB live betting up 36% YoY in April, underscoring robust growth and market share gains.
- Operational Efficiency & Marketing Adaptations: Comments pointed to improved promotional efficiency and adaptations to a softer digital ad environment—offset by Jackpocket’s exit—suggesting a more cost‐efficient growth model.
- Jackpocket Integration for Enhanced Profitability: Plans to integrate Jackpocket into the DKNG app in the back half of the year are expected to bolster wallet conversions and drive the unit toward breakeven profitability, reinforcing long‑term growth prospects.
| Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
Total Revenue | Increased by 20% from $1,175.0M in Q1 2024 to $1,408.8M in Q1 2025 | Total Revenue growth was driven by an expanded customer base and deeper market penetration in Sportsbook and iGaming product offerings, continuing the momentum from previous period initiatives that focused on jurisdictional expansions and consumer engagement. |
Online Gaming Revenue | Up 13% from $1,152.2M in Q1 2024 to $1,305.43M in Q1 2025 | Online Gaming Revenue improvement reflects solid performance in both Sportsbook (contributing $881.96M) and iGaming ($423.47M), building on previous strategies that enhanced player retention and expanded offerings across key markets. |
Net Loss | Improved by roughly 76%, reducing from $(142,568)K in Q1 2024 to $(33,864)K in Q1 2025 | Net Loss improvement is attributed to significant operational efficiencies, better margin management, and lower overall expenses compared to Q1 2024, echoing the structural improvements seen in FY 2024 such as optimized cost structures and tax benefits. |
Cost of Revenue | Increased to $843,803K in Q1 2025, resulting in about a 40% gross profit margin | The Cost of Revenue increase is aligned with higher overall sales and activity levels; however, the maintained gross margin indicates effective scaling and improved structural efficiency while managing increased variable expenses. This builds on prior period enhancements such as operational streamlining. |
Cash and Cash Equivalents | Declined from $1,270,503K in Q1 2024 to $1,119,740K in Q1 2025 | The decline in Cash and Cash Equivalents likely stems from increased capital deployment and operational investments made following prior liquidity improvements, suggesting a shift towards reinvesting cash to support growth initiatives despite a higher liability base. |
Total Assets | Increased to $4,515,813K in Q1 2025 from the previous period | Total Assets grew due to higher cash, receivables, and other current assets despite a reduction in cash balances, reflecting strategic investments and expansions initiated in previous periods that have begun to materialize in asset growth. |
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | FY 2025 | Expected to be in the range of $6.3B to $6.6B, with year-over-year growth of 32% to 38% | No guidance provided in Q1 2025 | no current guidance |
Adjusted EBITDA | FY 2025 | Expected to be in the range of $900M to $1B | No guidance provided in Q1 2025 | no current guidance |
Adjusted Gross Margin | FY 2025 | Expected to be in the range of 46% to 47% | No guidance provided in Q1 2025 | no current guidance |
Free Cash Flow | FY 2025 | Expected to be approximately $850M | No guidance provided in Q1 2025 | no current guidance |
Stock-Based Compensation Expense | FY 2025 | Expected to represent approximately 6% of revenue | No guidance provided in Q1 2025 | no current guidance |
Bridge between Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow | FY 2025 | Expected to be $100M | No guidance provided in Q1 2025 | no current guidance |
Structural Sportsbook Hold Percentage | FY 2025 | Expected to be approximately 11% | No guidance provided in Q1 2025 | no current guidance |
Sportsbook Net Revenue Margin | FY 2025 | Expected to be in the range of 7% to 7.5% | No guidance provided in Q1 2025 | no current guidance |
| Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | Q1 2025 | $6.3B to $6.6B for FY 2025 | $1,408.806M | Missed |
Stock-Based Compensation | Q1 2025 | ~6% of revenue | $78,846(~5.6% of $1,408.806M) | Met |
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Live Betting Growth | In Q2 2024, DraftKings emphasized balanced focus on live betting alongside overall betting improvements. In Q4 2024, it was highlighted as a key growth area with evolving expectations for its contribution to EBITDA. Q3 2024 had no discussion on live betting growth. | Q1 2025 featured strong live betting performance with handle exceeding 50% and MLB live handle up 36% YoY. Emphasis on significant investments and market share gains was noted. | Consistent focus with a marked acceleration in growth and more positive sentiment in Q1 2025. |
ROI Timing | Q4 2024 discussions focused on live betting investments expecting EBITDA neutrality in 2025 and an uptick in 2026 and beyond. | Q1 2025 noted that Q1 was the first period where ROI from live betting investments began to materialize, with further acceleration predicted entering Q2 2025. | Shift towards an earlier realization of ROI, indicating improved operational execution. |
Customer Acquisition, Engagement & Retention | Q2 2024 described strong new OSB and iGaming customer growth with efficient CAC and product enhancements. Q3 2024 focused on cautious promotional budgeting and event-driven activation. Q4 2024 highlighted record customer acquisition, robust customer base growth, and reinforcement during key events. | Q1 2025 continued the emphasis on efficient acquisition, robust engagement driven by increased sportsbook handle, successful product pilots (DraftKings Plus), and sticky parlay betting behavior. | A steady focus across periods with improved efficiency and positive engagement metrics, reinforcing a positive long‐term growth outlook. |
Promotional Spending Efficiency & Impact on EBITDA | Q2 2024 noted efficient CAC but acknowledged a short-term EBITDA drag from new customer promotions. Q3 2024 highlighted a 300 basis point improvement and a $55 million adjusted EBITDA benefit from optimization. Q4 2024 discussed reduced promotional intensity and improvements in adjusted gross margins. | Q1 2025 reported continued promotional efficiency gains contributing to a 100+ basis point increase in adjusted gross margin and supportive adjusted EBITDA results, despite external market influences. | Ongoing improvements with consistent refinement; sentiment has shifted to a more optimistic outlook on profitability and margin expansion. |
Operational Efficiency & Margin Expansion | Q2 2024 mentioned a balanced increase in operating expenses with an adjusted gross margin of 43%. Q3 2024 cited a 300bp improvement in margins driven by promotional optimization. Q4 2024 focused on strong operating leverage and a forecasted margin expansion (target EBITDA margin near 30%). | Q1 2025 emphasized multi-faceted efficiency improvements through cost discipline, AI utilization for automation, and continued margin expansion with adjusted gross margin of 45% and incremental improvements expected in fiscal 2025. | Enhanced cost management and technology integration (e.g., AI) have boosted operational efficiency, reflecting a more positive and proactive strategy in margin expansion. |
Regulatory, Tax & Market Expansion Uncertainty | Q2 2024 discussed a proactive strategy such as a gaming tax surcharge and recognized challenges in high-tax states. Q3 2024 mentioned mitigation tactics for the Illinois tax increase and Missouri market launches, while Q4 2024 covered active lobbying and tempered guidance with tax impacts. | Q1 2025 reiterated concerns regarding rising state taxes (e.g., Illinois, Maryland) and the risk of illegal operators capturing share, while also noting active efforts with legislators and cautious international expansion strategies. | Persistent uncertainty with regulators and tax changes; while strategies are in place, sentiment remains cautious as these factors can significantly affect future performance. |
Jackpocket Integration Dynamics | Q2 2024 outlined integration plans and the potential for significant customer acquisition benefits through Jackpocket. Q3 2024 highlighted its contribution to ARPMUP growth and customer acquisition, though no exit was mentioned. Q4 2024 focused on cross-sell success and marketing investments, with no mention of exit dynamics. | Q1 2025 detailed active integration into the DraftKings app, expected completion in the back half of 2025, and noted the exit from Texas/New Mexico creating headwinds to revenue and EBITDA, yet affirming overall growth prospects. | While integration remains a strategic focus, the introduction of exit dynamics (Texas/New Mexico) in Q1 2025 introduces mixed sentiment but overall maintains long‑term optimism. |
Product Innovation & Geographic Diversification | Q2 2024 emphasized sportsbook enhancements and expanded iGaming offerings, along with the launch in Washington, D.C.. Q3 2024 promoted innovations such as new parlay features and sport-specific enhancements, with a cautious view toward international expansion. Q4 2024 underscored live betting improvements and emerging verticals like Jackpocket, and noted future international expansion as a long‑term opportunity. | Q1 2025 continued the focus on product innovation with enhancements in live betting, NBA, and new product pilots like DraftKings Plus. Geographic diversification remained U.S.-centric with international ambitions being secondary. | A consistently strong innovative approach with incremental product launches; geographic diversification remains strategic but low priority compared to domestic market expansion. |
External Revenue & EBITDA Volatility Due to Market Factors | Q2 2024 indirectly touched on volatility through customer acquisition dynamics and tax impacts, while Q3 2024 highlighted sports outcome volatility affecting hold percentages and EBITDA (headwinds of $250M revenue, $175M EBITDA). Q4 2024 showed relatively stable quarter‐end performance adjusted for tax and promotion adjustments. | Q1 2025 detailed volatility arising from customer-friendly sport outcomes, tax changes (e.g., Maryland), and operational shifts (Jackpocket exit), contributing to headwinds on revenue and EBITDA, though structural metrics remain robust. | External volatility persists due to unpredictable sports outcomes and tax changes; however, structural performance largely remains strong, with companies actively managing these fluctuations. |
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Hold Convergence
Q: Are actual and structural hold aligned?
A: Management acknowledged that while recent outcomes have shown a divergence due to random, customer‑friendly sports events, they remain confident that actual hold will converge with structural hold over time, assuming no fundamental changes occur. -
Back-Half Hold
Q: What’s the expected second-half structural hold?
A: They expect structural hold to be just below 11% in Q3 and to rise over 11% in Q4, driven by key sports like the NFL and NBA. -
M&A Strategy
Q: What are the limits for M&A activity?
A: Management views acquisitions as one of several value‐creation tools, balancing equity, debt, and cash considerations. Past deals like Simplebet have already contributed to cost efficiencies and live handle growth. -
Live Betting Impact
Q: Has live betting improved market share in basketball?
A: Management highlighted that improvements in live betting, fueled by strategic acquisitions and product enhancements, have helped gain market share in basketball and boosted overall handle. -
Digital Ad Spend
Q: How is softer digital ad spend affecting you?
A: They noted that the softer digital ad environment creates an opportunity for more efficient spending, even as reductions from events like the Jackpocket exit help balance overall marketing outlays. -
Jackpocket Integration
Q: What’s the plan for Jackpocket in the DraftKings app?
A: Management is actively working to integrate Jackpocket into the DraftKings platform in the back half of the year, expecting that despite the Texas exit, the offering will approach break-even profitability while fueling growth. -
Global Expansion
Q: What are the ambitions for international growth?
A: They remain primarily focused on U.S. growth but are open to pursuing international opportunities if the right high‐bar, synergy‑driven deal emerges.
Research analysts covering DraftKings.