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DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, INC. (DKS)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 performance was robust: net sales $3.89B (+0.5% YoY despite a 53rd-week calendar headwind), comps +6.4%, gross margin 34.96%, and diluted EPS $3.62; EBT margin held at 10.2% . Management emphasized the quarter was the largest sales quarter in company history and market share gains continued .
- 2025 outlook introduced: EPS $13.80–$14.40, net sales $13.6–$13.9B, comps +1% to +3%, gross margin expansion ~75 bps offset by planned SG&A deleverage; EBIT/EBT ~11.1% midpoint .
- Capital return and growth catalysts: dividend raised 10% to $1.2125/quarter (annualized $4.85), and a new five‑year $3B buyback program; plan to open ~16 House of Sport and ~18 Field House stores in 2025, with ~3% square footage growth .
- Street consensus comparisons were not available from S&P Global due to access limits; estimate context and potential revisions are discussed qualitatively at the end.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record sales quarter with strong comps: Q4 comps +6.4% on top of prior Q4 +2.9%, driven by average ticket (+4.4%) and transactions (+2%) . “With a 6.4% Q4 comp we delivered the largest sales quarter in Company history” — Lauren Hobart .
- Gross margin expansion continued: Q4 gross margin 34.96% (+39 bps vs prior year non-GAAP), driven by lower shipping costs and higher merchandise margin .
- Strategic growth pillars gaining traction: footwear penetration reached 28% and will be a focus area with high-impact marketing and premium service; GameChanger surpassed $100M revenue in 2024 and is targeted at ~$150M in 2025; DICK’S Media Network scaling as a future gross margin driver .
What Went Wrong
- SG&A deleverage: Q4 SG&A rose to 24.75% of sales (non-GAAP 24.59%), +101 bps YoY on investments in technology, talent, and marketing, and higher incentives .
- Calendar headwinds masked underlying growth: Q4 sales comparisons unfavorably impacted by ~$200M (53rd week + calendar shift), and EPS unfavorably impacted by ~$0.29 per diluted share vs prior year non-GAAP .
- Inventory up 18% YoY as the company leaned into key items and early spring receipts; management asserts clearance levels are at historic lows and assortment is well positioned, but this remains a watch point if seasonal demand softens .
Financial Results
Notes:
- Q4 2025 comparisons were unfavorably impacted by the prior-year 53rd week (
$170M) and a calendar shift ($30M) . - Non-GAAP EPS: Q4 2025 $3.62 vs Q4 2024 $3.85, with 2024 non-GAAP adjustments primarily business optimization charges that were absent in 2025 .
KPIs (Q4 2025 focus):
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “For 2025, our outlook reflects strong confidence in our strategies… investing in three exciting growth areas… repositioning our real estate… driving continued strong growth in footwear, and accelerating our eCommerce business.” — Lauren Hobart, CEO .
- “The convergence of sport and culture… is only expected to grow through 2030 and beyond… DICK’S is uniquely positioned to seize this opportunity.” — Ed Stack, Executive Chairman .
- “Driven by our strong sales and gross margin expansion, EBT was $1.52B (11.3% of net sales)… We delivered EPS of $14.05.” — Navdeep Gupta, CFO (FY 2024) .
- “We expect gross margins to again expand year-over-year (~75 bps at midpoint)… offset by SG&A deleverage.” — Navdeep Gupta, CFO (FY 2025 outlook) .
Q&A Highlights
- Tariffs: Guidance does not contemplate new tariff changes; DKS and brand partners have diversified sourcing; minimal exposure to Mexico/Canada; pricing actions will balance athlete value and business needs .
- SG&A vs margin: Gross margin expansion expected from merchandise margin plus emerging contributions from GameChanger and Media Network; SG&A higher due to strategic investments across e-commerce, footwear, store portfolio .
- Footwear: 28% penetration, premium service model in ~90% of stores; high-impact marketing and tech (RFID, app launches/reservations, 3D imagery) to drive share gains .
- Inventory posture: Inventory up 18% YoY was deliberate to support demand; clearance at historic lows; management remains confident in merch margin expansion in 2025 despite weather variability .
- Average ticket: Driven by differentiated assortment and pricing/promotion management, not inflation .
Estimates Context
- Street (S&P Global) consensus EPS and revenue for Q4 2025 were unavailable due to access limits; as a result, beat/miss versus consensus cannot be quantified in this recap. Values typically retrieved from S&P Global were not accessible at this time.
- Given the strong comps (+6.4%) and record sales quarter despite calendar headwinds, analysts may reassess 2025 gross margin trajectory and SG&A timing; however, explicit consensus revisions are not presented here .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Underlying demand remains solid: Q4 comps +6.4% with both ticket and transactions up, supporting the footwear-led thesis and differentiated assortment advantage .
- Margin structure resilient: Gross margin expansion continues (merchandise margin, shipping cost tailwinds, emerging alternative profit pools); SG&A deleverage is planned but targeted to long-term share capture .
- Multi-year growth runway: House of Sport and Field House economics (year‑1 omni
$35M/$14M; ~20% EBITDA) plus ~3% square footage growth underpin top-line expansion and durable profitability . - Capital allocation remains shareholder-friendly: dividend up 10% and new $3B buyback program, alongside ~$1.0B net capex focused on store portfolio and technology .
- 2025 setup: Comps +1–3% with stronger cadence through Q3 and tougher lap in Q4; gross margin expansion (~75 bps) offset by front-loaded SG&A; EPS $13.80–$14.40 at ~82M diluted shares and ~24% tax rate .
- Watch items: Elevated inventories (deliberate, “historic low” clearance), tariff developments not in guidance, and macro/geopolitical uncertainties; management signals flexibility if conditions change .
- Stock reaction catalysts: Ongoing evidence of footwear share gains, tangible ramp in Media Network/GameChanger contribution to margins, and execution on store format expansion could drive estimate revisions and multiple support .