BRP - Earnings Call - Q4 2025
March 26, 2025
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the BRP Fiscal Year 2025 Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call. For participants who use a telephone line, it is recommended to turn off the sound on your device. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Philip Deschênes. Please go ahead, sir.
Philippe Deschênes (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Sylvie. Good morning and welcome to BRP's conference call for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025. Joining me this morning are José Boisjoli, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sébastien Martel, Chief Financial Officer. Before we move to the prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that certain forward-looking statements will be made during the call and that the actual results could differ from those implied in these statements.
The forward-looking information is based on certain assumptions and is subject to risk and uncertainties, and I invite you to consult BRP's and DNA for complete release of these. Also, during the call, reference will be made to the scoring slide, and you can find the presentation on our website at brp.com under the Investor Relations section.
As a reminder, note that following the announcement of the initiation of the sales process for marine businesses, these businesses are now presented as discontinued operations. Therefore, all periods presented in these releases reflect continuing operation only unless otherwise noted. With that, I'll turn the call over to José.
José Boisjoli (President and CEO)
Thank you, Philip. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Although Fiscal 2025 brought a share of challenges, I am proud of our team's agility and dedication. We have always been known to be leaders, and this year was no different. In light of a difficult macroeconomic environment, softer industry, and continued pressure on consumer demand, we were the first OEM to proactively reduce production and shipments. Throughout the year, we remained focused on the disciplined execution of our inventory reduction plan to support our dealers and protect the value of our brand.
As expected, this resulted in short-term market share losses. We have also continued positioning the business for long-term success. We have introduced several new models, entered new segments, and further improved operational efficiency by achieving over $200 million in lean saving for the year. Also, as you know, we have decided to sell our marine business. The process is currently following its course. We will update you in due time. Our strategy is to double down on our powersports leadership position.
We will focus our effort and investment on our core activities and capitalize on attractive long-term growth opportunities. Now, let's turn to slide five for key financial highlights. We ended the year with $7.8 billion in revenue, normalized EBITDA of $1 billion, and normalized EPS of $4.68, all within our revised guidance range.
We also achieved one of our key objectives by significantly reducing network inventory levels, as you can see on slide six. Inventory was down 13% at the end of the year, or down 18% when excluding snowmobile, which saw softer than anticipated retail in the fourth quarter. With better snow conditions in February, snowmobile retail has improved, bringing our total North American powersports inventory reduction to 18%, in line with our objective of 15%-20%.
This solid performance shows our commitment to protecting our dealer value proposition and puts us in a favorable position to capture market opportunity when the industry rebounds. Let's turn to slide seven for an update on the global powersports market. The fourth quarter was consistent with the trend observed earlier in the year. In North America, our powersports retail was down 21%, essentially in line with our expectations. Excluding snowmobile, it was down 11%.
From an international perspective, we continue to see softer demand in EMEA and Asia Pacific, with retail down 11% and 10% respectively. Latin America continued to outperform other regions, with retail up 16%, driven by sustained momentum in ORV and personal watercraft. Turning to slide eight for a look at our North American retail performance by product line. ORV performed as expected during the quarter, with our retail lagging the industry, as we were less competitive in non-current units due to our leaner inventory position.
Meanwhile, snowmobile retail was softer than anticipated because of the late arrival of snowfall. Retail peaked later in the season, with February and March better than planned, which should limit the shortfall for the season. As for three-wheel, personal watercraft, and pontoon, Q4 was the off-season, and there are no major trends to highlight as volumes were small.
Let me circle back to ORV on slide nine. As you can see, the dynamic we've discussed last quarter continued in Q4, with the industry essentially being driven by discounted non-current units. Since we significantly reduced our network inventory, we had lower availability of non-current units and were less competitive in that market. However, we've gained further share in current units, which gives us confidence that we will regain momentum when the inventory position of other OEMs normalizes.
Before reviewing quarterly results by product line, let's turn to slide 10 to take a step back and look at our progress made over the past few years. We became the number one OEM in powersports in North America, and we are a much stronger company than five years ago. In fact, we have gained six points of market share versus pre-COVID.
Our ambitious ORV strategy paid off, leading to market share gains of 11 percentage points in side-by-side and four percentage points in ETV. We even extended our leadership position in personal watercraft and snowmobile with gains of two and nine percentage points, respectively. The only area where we lost some ground is in three-wheel vehicles, as we face a tough competitor with pre-COVID being the first season of the rider. Even if Fiscal 2025 was a more difficult year, we continued applying the same formula that delivered these results.
We pushed technology and introduced several key models across all our product lines to wow our consumers. We grew our addressable market with the launch of the Can-Am electric motorcycle. We expanded the rollout of our modular design, namely with the introduction of the new high-speed ETV platform.
We stayed true to our performance and innovation heritage, winning on the racetrack and being recognized by the industry with 17 design awards. With our momentum, we strongly believe that we are well-positioned to benefit from a market rebound. Now, let's turn to slide 11 for a more detailed look at year-round products. Fourth quarter revenues were down 17% to $1.1 billion, primarily due to the reduced shipment to right-size our network inventory.
At retail, Can-Am side-by-side was down about 10% due to the non-current unit dynamic compared to the industry, which was down low single digits. Still, fiscal 2025 was our second best year ever at retail. We continue to experience strong demand for our high-end Defender cab, gaining about two points of market share this year in the utility segment. ATV retail was also down about 10% for the same reason as side-by-side.
However, we are well-positioned with our new Outlander platform and gained over two percentage points of market share in the mid-CC category in Fiscal 2025. This platform was also introduced last August across our high-CC model, a significant upgrade in ETV. Looking at three-wheel vehicle retail, it was down about 30% very early in the season. We remain optimistic about the upcoming season, given the positive response to the recently introduced Can-Am Canyon, which tapped into the growing adventure touring market.
Turning to seasonal product on slide 12, revenues were down 29% to $678 million, primarily reflecting reduced shipment. In counter-seasonal market, it was peak season for personal watercraft, and Sea-Doos had a low 10% decline in APAC, slightly outperforming the market that was down 19%. Meanwhile, we continue to grow in Latin America, with retail up low single-digit percentage.
As for North America, we are in the off-season, but early indications from boat shows suggest more stable industry conditions compared to last year. For snowmobile, retail was down low 30% in the quarter. When the season began, we had proportionally less non-current units than our competitors, resulting in market share loss in North America as of the end of January. In Scandinavia, we gained market share, with retail down high single-digit % compared to an industry that was down low 20%.
We introduced our new model 2026 in mid-February, and we are currently in the booking process. We strengthened our lineup by expanding the RAV Gen 5 platform to additional models, adding new features, and providing better connectivity. As this year was also challenging, we remain cautious with our upcoming production schedule to tightly manage inventory.
Our new model, coupled with the fact that some players are exiting the industry, put us in a very good position to gain further share. Moving on slide 13, for parts, accessories, and apparel, and OEM engines, revenues were down 1% to $293 million, primarily due to slower to lower shipment of P&A, given softer industry trends. From a product standpoint, our ORV part business maintained its momentum, driven by ongoing usage of our growing vehicle fleet, while accessory sales have been softer in line with retail. With that, I turn the call over to Sébastien.
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
Thank you, José. Good morning, everyone. We completed Fiscal 2025 with another quarter of tight execution against our plan to deliver on our network inventory reduction target, all the while meeting our revised guidance for the year.
Looking at the numbers for Q4, revenues were down 20% to $2.1 billion, primarily due to the lower shipments and higher sales programs. We generated $429 million in gross profit, representing a margin of 20.5%, down from last year, primarily due to the less efficient use of our assets, given the lower production volumes, higher sales programs, and an unfavorable model mix. These were partly offset by favorable pricing.
Our normalized EBITDA ended at $240 million and our normalized earnings per share at $0.98. From a cash flow perspective, we ended the year generating over $450 million of free cash flow from continuing operations, allowing us to sustain attractive returns of capital to our shareholders, with $62 million in dividend payments and $215 million in share repurchases.
From a balance sheet perspective, we closed Fiscal 2025 with $180 million of cash and a comfortable net leverage ratio of 2.6 times, providing us with the balance sheet flexibility as we navigate uncertain environments. All in all, while Fiscal 2025 was a challenging year from an industry dynamics perspective, I am pleased with our team's constant focus on the tight management of our expenses and cash generation and their ability to unlock efficiencies throughout the business. It is these efforts that allow us to deliver results at the upper end of our revised guidance.
Now, turning to Fiscal 2026, starting with an update on the current tariff situation on slide 16. Like many North American companies, we have optimized our manufacturing footprint, supply chain over the years based on the free trade agreements between Canada, the United States, and Mexico.
As such, we currently have operations in a supply chain across all three countries, and consequently, the ongoing tariff disputes are impacting our business, our suppliers, and our customers. This is the situation for BRP. All of our vehicles produced in Canada and Mexico are USMCA compliant and are currently exempt from the 25% tariffs levied by the United States on these countries.
We have limited exposure to imports from China into the U.S. or from imports from the U.S. to Canada. While we are impacted by U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, the cost is relatively small as the exposure is mostly limited to our P&A business. With what we know today, the tariffs that are currently in effect would have an estimated impact of about $40 million on our business if they stay as is throughout the year.
As you well know, the situation remains very fluid, and we are continuously refining our assessment of the potential cost of these tariffs on our business, especially as it relates to potential impacts on our tier two and tier three suppliers. This brings us to the discussion about what to expect for Fiscal 2026 on slide 17. As we already mentioned, with the disciplined execution of our plan throughout the past year, we started Fiscal 2026 in a stronger position, notably with leaner inventory levels, a cost structure that was right-sized for the current industry environment, and a greater focus on our core powersports business.
With that, we were well-positioned to deliver some top-line growth driven by improved ORV shipments with wholesales more closely matching retail, new product introductions, and partly offset by lower shipments of personal watercraft and snowmobiles to bring back our network inventory to more normalized levels.
We were poised to deliver some improvements in EBITDA margin driven by the increased shipments and lower sales program, given that we are operating with leaner network inventory levels and a more efficient overhead structure following the optimizations we did in Fiscal 2025. These elements would be partly offset by return of variable compensation and unfavorable foreign exchange variation.
Accounting for higher depreciation, financing costs, and tax rate, our plan called for about $4.50 to $5 of normalized EPS for the year, with tougher comparables in the first half of the year, notably expecting Q1 EPS to be down about 70% on a continuing operation basis. However, since the beginning of the year, with the ongoing tariff disputes and changing geopolitical dynamics, our operating and demand environment has become much less predictable.
While we expect to be able to manage through the currently implemented tariffs, several more tariffs have been announced by different governments, and we lack the necessary visibility as to the timing, nature, and extent of potential changes to trade regulations to fully assess the potential impact on our business.
More importantly, we are seeing the uncertainty created by the situation starting to impact the economy and the consumer confidence, which makes it very difficult for us to properly forecast our industries and the demand for products with the level of confidence we require. In this context, we believe it would be inappropriate to issue guidance today, and we will therefore refrain from doing so.
Still, we remain focused on tightly managing our business and making sure that we remain agile to rapidly adapt to any change in operating environment, all the while continuing to position our business to create long-term value for our shareholders. We look forward to a return to a more stable and predictable environment, enabling us to provide you with a clearer outlook for Fiscal Year 2026. On that, I will turn the call over to José.
José Boisjoli (President and CEO)
Thank you, Sébastien.
Fiscal 2025 was a challenging year for the powersports industry. I am proud that we were the first OEM to reduce network inventory and, more importantly, that we have achieved our initial objective. We have also outpaced the off-road market and current unit, which speak highly about the appeal of our lineups. We finished the year on plan, despite uncertainty created by the threat of tariff, which has further impacted consumer sentiment and market demand.
We are used to dealing with changing trade rules, and we have always succeeded in adapting to new tariffs. However, if we have to deal with significant changes in regulation, such as a 25% tariff, we will need enough time to adjust our plan accordingly. For now, we are closely monitoring the situation and proactively implementing short-term mitigation measures. As we enter Fiscal 2026, we are encouraged by our solid market position.
From now on, doubling down on powersports will solidify our leadership, while our strong product pipeline and passion for innovation will continue to set us apart. Our goal is to consistently wow consumers with market-shaping products, and I can tell you that in Fiscal 2026, consumers will not be disappointed. On that note, I turn the call over to the operator for questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you do have any questions, please press star, followed by one on your touch-tone phone. You will then hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star, followed by two. If you are using a speakerphone, you will need to lift the handset first before pressing any keys.
Also, out of consideration to other callers on the line today, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please go ahead and press star one now if you have any questions. First, we will hear from Shabbat Khan at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Sabahat Khan (Analyst)
Great. Thanks and good morning. Thanks for the initial sort of commentary on Fiscal 2026. As you think about your inventory that you outlined, what sort of industry inventory backdrop and competitive pricing, etc., are you taking into account when contemplating a situation where you could grow revenue potentially and margins? Do you feel the industry inventory broadly is in a good shape? Just reviews on the peers in the industry from that perspective.
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
Good morning. If I go back 12 months, I think the industry expected a better outlook. That is why we are in a situation today where some OEMs have a lot more inventory than we have. We proactively, as you might remember, beginning of last year, decided to reduce production and shipments to really manage the inventory levels. For sure, we are starting the year in a much better position.
However, not all of the OEMs are in a similar situation, and we're seeing higher non-current inventory from other OEMs. The expectation is that we would have another Q1 where non-current inventory would be in play from a market share perspective and that we were looking for more normalized levels of inventory starting in the back half of Q2 and into the second half of next year.
Obviously, if the industry is softer, it will take a bit more time for other OEMs to liquidate that inventory and come out with more normalized levels. That may mean that we might see a bit more incentives in the second quarter and the second half of next year. That is certainly something that we're used to navigating through and we'll adjust accordingly. We believe that the things we did of right-sizing our inventory earlier was the right thing to do for the dealers and also for the business.
Sabahat Khan (Analyst)
Okay, great. Just the second one on your expectations for sort of production, CapEx, etc., is that a bit more fluid at this point in the year? Just trying to get an understanding of this year maybe benefited from a bit of inventory cleanup on the free cash flow side. Just your thoughts on how CapEx and/or cash flow could trend through the year. Thank you.
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
Yeah, again, start of the year, we were expecting very good, solid free cash flow generation with, I guess, the elements I highlighted in my prepared remarks. Working capital is certainly something that we continue managing diligently, and it could be a minor tailwind for us. From a CapEx perspective, ballpark, we should be slightly higher to where we were last year, again, with what we see today.
Most of that increase is actually coming from foreign exchange. U.S. and euro rates are quite high compared to last year, and that is what is driving the CapEx variation. Again, we are nimble, we are flexible, and if things are more challenging, we will obviously adapt our plans. We remain very much aware of the situation.
Sabahat Khan (Analyst)
Thanks very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you.
Next question will be from Joe Altobello at Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Joe Altobello (Leisure Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks. Hey, guys, good morning. I want to go back to the network inventory situation for a second. You mentioned in your slide deck that you think shipments and retail should be in better alignment here in Fiscal 2026. Would you still expect to take inventory out of the channel? It does sound like ORV is in good shape, but PWC and Snow probably a little bit heavy.
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
Good morning. Like you said, I think on ORV, we have reached our level, and we are very comfortable with what we have. On watercraft, everything is in line to achieve. Obviously, if the retail is on plan to achieve a good level of inventory at the end of the model year, the existing model year season, that ends in the fall.
On this, we were cautious on production to make sure that we would end up in good shape. On snowmobile, to be honest, February and March was good retail, better than what typically we do because of the late snow. It will be lower than last year, but still too high. We are cautious on how many snowmobiles we produce in model year this fiscal year to make sure we hand the inventory in good shape next year. Overall, we have very good progress in all product lines. Watercraft is on plan. Snowmobile is behind because of the late snow.
Joe Altobello (Leisure Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Okay, helpful. Just to kind of go back to a comment you made earlier, Seb, about the $4.50-$5 outlook for 2026. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like that was more of your assumption three months ago. Since then, obviously, the tariff situation has evolved. The $40 million you mentioned earlier is sort of incremental to that and then maybe some demand impact. Is that how we should think about that number?
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
Yeah, that's how you should think of it. As you mentioned in the last comment you made, obviously, at the beginning of the year, obviously, consumer demand has also softened, and that would have obviously impacted any guidance that we, if we would have issued any guidance today. It does not include the $40 million headwind and obviously does not include the softness in expected consumer demand.
José Boisjoli (President and CEO)
Maybe if I can add on Sébastien, if I can add on Sébastien, and this is a matches we want to complete. Basically, our plan in H2 was very well executed, and we were on plan all second half of the year. We were on plan for fiscal year 2026 before the tariff situation. This is basically a message we want to make sure that the investor understands.
Joe Altobello (Leisure Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, perfect. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question will be from Craig Kenison at Baird. Please go ahead.
Craig Kennison (Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just to follow up on the non-current inventory situation across the industry, will that be an overhang in fiscal 2026, and would you therefore expect to continue to lose share until that is complete?
José Boisjoli (President and CEO)
Good morning, Craig. I mean, right now, if we look at the some OEMs still have too much inventory. I give you an example in ORV. Again, this is coming from CDK Datola. It's a tool to manage in and out at dealer level. On ORV, I mean, some OEMs still have 50% of non-current inventory at this time of the year, which is too high. We believe, like Sébastien said, that if the retail hold, this will normalize at the end of Q1 or early Q2. We feel confident for the second half of the year.
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
To your question, Craig, yes. Market share challenges in the first half of the year are expected on our front.
Craig Kennison (Research Analyst)
Thank you. With respect to the $200 million in cost savings that you have identified, how will that impact the income statement as you think about Fiscal 2026 and beyond? Is that something where you'd give price back to consumers or some of that flow to the bottom line?
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
Obviously, we're operating in an environment where production is not at the level where we'd want it to be, where the industries are softer. It is not something that would automatically flow through as price reduction. We want to generate profitability. We want to generate free cash flow. That is something that we will try to protect as much as possible. Again, we'll remain flexible based on what the industry dynamics are and what the promotional environment is to make sure that our products remain competitive for the consumers, for the dealers as well, and that we're able to win the market share battle as well and sell the innovation that we have.
Craig Kennison (Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question will be from Martin Landry at SEFO. Please go ahead.
Martin Landry (Consumer & Retail Analyst)
Hi, good morning, guys. Lots of headwinds and lots of moving parts. If we focus on retail demand, I'd like to understand a little bit how you view the industry at retail in North America evolved this year.
José Boisjoli (President and CEO)
Good morning. If you look at some consumer highlight, basically, new entrant right now are at the same level than pre-COVID. Retail on the high-end product is quite good. It's touching more the entry-level product or recreational product. I give you an example. In some product line, like all our entry-level product, the Spark, the Ryker, and the Switch are down about 30%. On the other hand, the Defender Cab is up. This is basically what we see. Same trend in what we've told you in Q3 and Q4, in Q3, sorry. This is the dynamic that we see.
The inflation, the high interest rate are affecting more the customer for entry-level product, and the high-end is doing quite well. Obviously, because of our non-current position, we're losing some share in the non-current. On the other hand, we're very happy of the momentum we have in the current category.
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
To your statement, Martin, as you mentioned, the situation is obviously evolving, and it's tough to read. That's the reason why today it's difficult for us to have an evaluation of what the true industry demand is and provide guidance. I'm looking at the February numbers. The retail is choppy. I'm looking at ORV, retail down in the mid-teens for the ORV industry in February only. How is that going to trend going forward? Again, it's very difficult to call.
Martin Landry (Consumer & Retail Analyst)
Okay. Just to follow up to that, you're saying that high-end products are selling well and value or entry-price products are a little less soft. Does that mean when you talk about your potential for top-line growth, does that mean from a volume price standpoint, volumes could be down year over year and price up?
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
Potentially, yes. Potentially, yes. Again, based on today, the difficulty in forecasting the industry, that is a potential scenario.
Martin Landry (Consumer & Retail Analyst)
Okay. Thank you. Best of luck.
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Next question will be from Robin Farley at UBS. Please go ahead.
Robin Farley (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Great. Thanks. Just trying to understand a little bit more. I know you mentioned that sort of previously you would have guided to the $4.50-$5 range before the $40 million headwind from tariffs and retail softening.
Can you sort of quantify what you, I guess, what that $4.50-$5 would have assumed what in industry retail kind of overall and for ORV? Maybe you sort of aren't ready to quantify where you see that now, but just wanting to think about how your retail expectation has changed. Thanks.
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
Yeah, the assumption assumed a relatively flat industry outlook. Obviously, we were lapping a year where we did significant inventory correction, especially in ORV. We would have had retail matching wholesale in Fiscal 2026, which would have provided for volume growth on our end and also new product introductions, which are expected to be very well received from the consumers. That was our initial assumption at the start of the year before all of this took place.
Robin Farley (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Now your assumption would be for industry retail to be kind of.
Philippe Deschênes (Director of Investor Relations)
The assumption is no guidance.
Robin Farley (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
I got it. No, understood.
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
It's difficult to call. It's been choppy. Obviously, with the uncertainty created by all of this, the consumers are holding back. You could have expected consumers to buy these goods because if their tariffs are coming on, there are going to be surcharges that are going to be applied. Technically, these goods are more affordable today than they might be in six months. Again, that uncertainty is a bigger overhang than the potential opportunity of buying a product with no tariffs today. It says a lot about how the consumer is feeling.
Robin Farley (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Just for my follow-up, you mentioned you've taken some mitigating actions. Is there sort of some amount of inventory that you've manufactured that you have crossed the border or are able to get across by April 2 so that you could continue to have inventory go to dealers without tariffs for some period of time? I don't know if you can quantify any sort of days sales outstanding or kind of thinking about what amount of inventory you've maybe been able to move in anticipation of potential further tariff action.
José Boisjoli (President and CEO)
Yeah. When all this tariff discussion started back in December last year, we even rented some warehouse in the United States to give us additional capacity. Right now, every product that is produced to be shipped to the United States, even if it's too early to ship them to the dealers, we cross the borders, and our warehouse that we have in the U.S. are always full.
We're maximizing everything we can for product, but also for parts and accessories. This is what we're doing right now. It's difficult for us to quantify, but I would say we probably have a month of inventory altogether that is on the other side of the border.
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
We need to remember that our dealers also have inventory in their yards. If something would be announced, we don't necessarily need to knee-jerk. We can see how things will evolve. As we've seen in the past, things sometimes change after a few days. We're not forced to ship units every day. That's, I think, a positive thing about our business that we can see where things are going to kind of trend towards before making more midterm to long-term decisions.
Robin Farley (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Great. Very helpful. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question will be from James Hardeman at Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Sean Wagner (Leisure Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, this is Sean Wagner, Arthur James. Just kind of you touched on February retail trends. Is there any color you can give on March month-to-date retail trends?
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
We're kind of seeing the same elements. Retail is still softer than what we would have expected three months ago. There is still the uncertainty around what's going to happen on April 2nd. I think that is influencing consumer behavior.
Sean Wagner (Leisure Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. That's fair. I guess if we take the incremental $40 million in tariff costs as sort of a base case scenario, are you even considering what the size of a worst-case scenario might be? I guess excluding tariffs, you had talked about 50 basis points of improvement in OpEx year over year on your last call. Is that still sort of excluding the incremental $40 million what you would be targeting? Or were there other moving parts since your last report that maybe changed that thinking?
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
The situation obviously is always changing. We try to be, we obviously follow it closely. Today, what I can tell you is what we know today is $40 million. Obviously, if I can give you an appreciation of what it could mean for BRP, the U.S. market is a big market for us. 60% of our revenues come from the U.S. Most of what we sell to the U.S. originates from either Mexico or Canada. It could have a sizable impact if tariffs were imposed on all goods crossing the border.
As we've always said, I mean, our supply chain and the supply chain of many, many industries have been optimized over the last 25 years leveraging these free trade agreements. If you were to do a dramatic shift overnight, it would be extremely disruptive for a lot of companies and the economy. For us, that is not a scenario which we believe is viable in the long term.
Can there be changes to the USMCA agreement? I think, yes, that's a very likely probability. It is scheduled to be renegotiated in a little over 12 months. Maybe that is where we go. As they've done during the last time when there were changes to the USMCA agreement, there was a transition period that was put in place to allow companies to adjust. We have always been flexible and adapted our operations to make sure that we leverage the new rules as they come in place. That is how we see it.
Sean Wagner (Leisure Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question will be from Jean Sioux at BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Jean (Analyst)
Hi, guys. Thanks for the question. On the current versus non-current inventory mix, helpful that you mentioned what you think some of the competitors are at. Could you maybe give us a sense of how your inventory mix is, current versus non-current, and how that compares to maybe pre-COVID fiscal year 2020?
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
Yeah. When I look at where we were in January, and if I look at just ORV, only a third of my inventory was non-current. The rest was current, which obviously is very good compared to what the numbers that José mentioned to you.
Philippe Deschênes (Director of Investor Relations)
I would say it's pretty much in line, even better than when we were pre-COVID. We actually purposefully reduced inventory. That had the benefit of reducing non-current inventory. That's where we are for non-current. On ORV and for seasonal business, we're a bit higher because we've just ended the season, and snowmobile was a tougher season versus the season we had versus pre-COVID. Trending a bit higher on snowmobile, but in a very good position on ORV with 30% of our inventory being non-current.
Jean (Analyst)
Okay. Very helpful. On snow, it sounds like you're planning some reduction in shipments. Maybe could you help us think about how big of an impact that could be to the top line or maybe remind us how big snow is within your seasonal?
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
Yeah. I'd say snow business is probably going to be similar to the snow season we had last year. Fiscal year 2025 for us was not a good snow season from a wholesale perspective because we reduced shipments off a tough season. The expectation for next year is we'll have similar deliveries as we had in fiscal year 2025, correcting inventory in the network.
Jean (Analyst)
Got it. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question will be from Jonathan Goldman at Scotia Bank. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Goldman (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to circle back to some of the slides you provided, the potential for top-line growth and potential for margin improvement. On the top-line growth, you talked about better alignment of retail and wholesale and RRV and destocking in seasonal. You discussed earlier potential for share shifts. What would be the underlying assumption that would drive the top-line growth?
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
The underlying assumption that would drive top-line growth is the first one is ORV deliveries where wholesale is better aligned with retail. We did a significant adjustment to inventory, 19% reduction in ORV in inventory reduction this year. Obviously, that means that you're shipping much less into the network than you're retailing. That's the number one.
The other element, which is not on slide 17, but it's the introduction of new products this year, which we believe will be in the back half of the year, which will drive wholesale deliveries and revenue because the dealers and the consumers will want these products in their showroom and in their yards. That would be somewhat offset by the adjustment of inventory for seasonal business. There's also a pricing increase, obviously, and we believe that the overall promotional environment will be better for us in 2026 than it would have been in 2025 because of less non-current inventory that we need to deplete.
Jonathan Goldman (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Just circling back maybe on the pricing discussion and the margin improvement driven by lower sales programs, given the consumer headwinds you've called out and the aggressive promo from other OEMs that maybe were not as proactive, destocking non-current units, why would industry or your promo be down or even flat this year?
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
There are two things. One is we have less non-current inventory to liquidate. That means you do not necessarily need to have the same level of promotion on your non-current inventory. Yes, OEMs would need to liquidate their non-current inventory.
That is why we said we would expect to lose market share in the first half of the year. In the back half of the year, once the OEM and the industry have corrected their inventory situation, we would be operating in a more normalized environment in the back half of the year. Again, these were the assumptions that we had at the beginning of the year. We will see how the industry is trending, and we will adapt accordingly.
Okay. Got it. Thanks for taking my questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question will be from Cameron Dirksen at National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.
Cameron Doerksen (Senior Equity Analyst)
Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. Just a question, I guess, on the supply chain. I mean, you mentioned the $40 million, I guess, tariff impact so far. I presume that most of that is related to the steel and aluminum tariffs. Maybe there's a little bit of China exposure there. I'm just wondering if just on that portion of what's been announced so far, is there anything you can do to adjust your supply chain to mitigate that over time?
José Boisjoli (President and CEO)
Yeah. I mean, for sure. We've been dealing with tariffs all our life, and we are used to adapt to rules. What is difficult this time is the rules are not clear, and they're changing all the time. There is no lead time. The point is we need clear rules, stability, and lead time, and we will adapt. We've done that a lot of times, and we will adapt going forward. Right now, the $40 million is an estimation.
I think we can work on it to reduce, but we don't know if there is another rule that will happen in a month. This is the difficulty. The $40 million is our best estimate at this point with what we know. Obviously, we'll continue to work on ways to mitigate it.
Cameron Doerksen (Senior Equity Analyst)
No, fair enough. A lot of uncertainty out there. Just for a follow-up, just on the, I guess, the dealer inventory finance, I know you've been providing a fair amount of support there for the dealers on that front. Now that the dealer inventory, at least for your products, is down to a more normalized level, how do you expect that that financing support is going to trend over the next 12 months?
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
For us, it'll obviously be a positive. When I look at what we've invested in fiscal year 2025 versus pre-COVID, just the floor plan financing was about 1.6% of our revenues compared to 1% in fiscal year 2020. Today, with what I see, I'm expecting floor plan to be relatively as a percentage of revenue similar to what we had in fiscal year 2020. Obviously, the leaner inventory will certainly help, and the more rapid liquidation from the dealers as well with that leaner inventory is another factor.
Cameron Doerksen (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. No, that's very helpful. Thanks very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question will be from Luke Hannon at Canaccord. Please go ahead.
Luke Hannan (Consumer Products & Retail Research Analyst)
Good morning. Thanks. I wanted to follow up on the earlier line of questioning on the staging of inventory. I know that that was in response to the discussion around the tariff uncertainty and perhaps moving inventory around in advance of these tariffs being imposed.
I wonder if the experience that the dealers have had over the course of the last several years now has given them any sort of thought, and perhaps yourselves any sort of thought as to, I guess, helping to stage inventory a little bit more thoughtfully, we'll call it, moving forward, so as to make sure there's less inventory on their lots going forward, less of a burden from a floor plan perspective. Curious to know if you've had any discussions there and what your thoughts are absent, of course, it's going on with tariffs.
José Boisjoli (President and CEO)
Obviously, with the high interest rate that we had in the last few years, dealers are extremely sensitive to inventory. That is why on the year-round product, off-road particularly, where we take order every month for what will be shipped in three months, it is a discussion that is a lot more detailed with dealers than it used to be.
For sure, when the seasonal product, like we are doing the booking right now on snowmobile for production that will happen this spring and summer, it will be for sure a total discussion with the dealer. The dealer typically does not, they make less profit selling non-current and obviously the high interest rate, so they are extremely cautious about what they will order. I think overall this will be healthy for the industry mid to long term.
Luke Hannan (Consumer Products & Retail Research Analyst)
Okay. Thanks. For my follow-up here, José, you mentioned that the early read from the boat shows was showing more stable industry conditions. Just curious what sort of data points are you looking at there? Is it registrations primarily, or is there other information that's sort of informing that?
José Boisjoli (President and CEO)
Yeah. Boat show, it's always difficult to get statistics from boat show because customers go to the boat show, dealers meet them, and it's very difficult to get what is signed at the boat show or what will be signed in the following weeks. What we're hearing from dealers last year, last year dealers' boat show were very good in certain area and bad in other area. This year it was more consistent across North America. What we're hearing, the dealers are quite happy with the boat show booking or the boat show sales.
Even right now we are on tour, on off-road, and the attendancy, the interest for the product is there. Like we've said many times, we feel good about the beginning of the year, and I think a lot of customers are on the fence, waiting to better understand what will happen with the tariff and the global economy.
Luke Hannan (Consumer Products & Retail Research Analyst)
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question will be from Jamie Katz at Morningstar. Please go ahead.
Jaime Katz (Senior Equity Analyst)
Hi. Good morning. I want to frame profit growth in a different way. Do you guys have a level of sales where you really start to see the absorption pick up and lend to operating margin expansion? Is it something like low single-digit growth, mid-single-digit growth? Can you just sort of put a size around that for us?
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
This year, fiscal 2025, we were operating our plans probably at a, let's say, 55% utilization, which is obviously suboptimal. Every unit we add is contributing, we'll call it direct margin or call it revenue minus variable cost to the bottom line. They're all extremely profitable. Any volume increase is beneficial for us, and it'll give you more than what you're currently reporting as a profit margin or a gross margin. That's obviously the beauty of our business. Yes, there's a certain level of fixed cost. We still can be profitable even running with 55% asset utilization. As we increase, every percentage point of asset utilization is exponential in terms of revenue growth that we could get.
Jaime Katz (Senior Equity Analyst)
Anything positive would be good is what it sounds like.
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.
Jaime Katz (Senior Equity Analyst)
Can you talk a little bit about how you guys are thinking about your capital allocation priorities this year and where that spend is going to? Thanks.
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
The number one priority continues to be the product, the innovation. This is what fuels demand, fuels interest in the consumer, fuels dealer engagement. That is why we are continuing to invest. We have an exciting year of product introductions coming up. We will continue focusing on that and protecting this. The other element is obviously we want to distribute capital to shareholders with a dividend.
We are modestly increasing the dividend this year. We still have $3.3 million of shares that we can buy back under the NCIB program. That is certainly an opportunity that we would like to tap in. Obviously, you will understand in the current context, we prefer protecting the flexibility of our balance sheet. We'll be holding back on buybacks until we have a better read as to where tariffs will go and where the economy is going to land.
Jaime Katz (Senior Equity Analyst)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question will be from Tristan Thomas Martin at BMO. Please go ahead.
Tristan Thomas‑Martin (Senior Equity Analyst)
Hey. Good morning.
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
Good morning.
José Boisjoli (President and CEO)
Good morning.
Tristan Thomas‑Martin (Senior Equity Analyst)
I may have missed this, but just on the $40 million tariff impact, was that COGS or somewhere else on the income statement?
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
It will be in the COGS.
Tristan Thomas‑Martin (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. Awesome. How are you thinking about affordability? I mean, you called out entry-level still being soft. One of your competitors is hinting at much cheaper kind of off-road vehicle products coming later in this year. How are you thinking about ASPs, and where do you think they kind of need to go to bring back entry-level demand?
José Boisjoli (President and CEO)
Yeah. As you know, the price has increased quite a lot during the COVID years. To give you an example of last year, model year 2025, ORV that we introduced last August. Basically, we did not increase our pricing in ORV, ATV and side-by-side. Modest increase of 1% on watercraft and three-wheel. What is important, we still try to protect our entry-level product in each product category.
On watercraft and on snow, we have some models below $7,000. The Ryker is still below $10,000. Some side-by-side vehicles are below $15,000. The Switch, the base Switch, is still at $23,000-$24,000. The point is, pre-COVID, the price increase was about 1% per year. That was the average. For the last two years, we had price increases higher than typical during the COVID year. Now we are back to normal, and we're making effort to protect the entry-level models for new customers.
Tristan Thomas‑Martin (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. If I could just maybe sneak one more in there, just how are the underlying retail rates to the consumer looking year over year?
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
The retail what, sorry, Tristan?
Tristan Thomas‑Martin (Senior Equity Analyst)
Retail financing rates to the consumer.
Sébastien Martel (CFO)
Similar in the U.S., very similar to where we were 12 months ago. No big changes. No changes in terms of acceptance, credit scores, penetration, etc. Very consistent.
Tristan Thomas‑Martin (Senior Equity Analyst)
Awesome. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question will be from Michael Kipros at Desjardins Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Michael Kypreos (Equity Research Associate)
Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I was just wondering if you had any updates on the marine sale and anything else in the business that you might be considering divesting.
José Boisjoli (President and CEO)
Yeah. The process is still ongoing, and obviously, we cannot say much about the topic. The only thing I would say is, like we said, we're still targeting to end the process end of Q1, beginning of Q2, and overall we are on plan.
Michael Kypreos (Equity Research Associate)
Perfect. I appreciate it. Maybe I was just curious if you had performed any internal scenarios on the cost of potentially having to build or acquire a manufacturing facility or exposure in the U.S.
José Boisjoli (President and CEO)
For sure, our current footprint, like we explained this morning, is optimized to meet the USMCA role that is there. We're very happy with our manufacturing facility in Canada because it's close to R&D. It's close to the center of expertise of BRP. We like Mexico because the culture, the availability of labor, the proximity to the U.S. market.
We have some factory in the U.S. that were mainly for marine because of transportation costs. At the end of the day, like I said before, when the rules are clear and there is a stable environment and we have enough lead time to adapt, we will adapt. We always done it, and we'll be what is right for the customers, the employees, and the shareholders. We need to have clear rules, stable environment, and with some lead time, we'll be able to adapt.
Michael Kypreos (Equity Research Associate)
Appreciate the call. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
At this time, we have no more questions. I will turn the call to Mr. Deschênes to close the meeting.
Philippe Deschênes (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Sylvie, and thanks everyone for joining us this morning and for your interest in BRP. We look forward to speaking with you again on May 29th for our Q1 earnings call.
Thanks again, everyone, and have a good day. Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. At this time, we ask that you please disconnect your lines.