Daqo New Energy - Q4 2023
February 28, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, and welcome to the Daqo New Energy fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 results conference call. All participants will be in the listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press s
tar then two. Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Miss Anita Zhu. Please go ahead.
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
Thank you. Hello, everyone. I'm Anita Zhu, the investor relations of Daqo New Energy. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Daqo New Energy just issued its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023, which can be found on our website at www.dqsolar.com. Today, attending the conference call, we have our chairman and CEO, Mr. Xiang Xu, our CFO, Mr. Ming Yang, and myself. The call today will begin with an update from Mr. Xu on market conditions and company operations, and then Mr.
Yang will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter and the year. After that, we'll open the floor to Q&A from the audience. Before we begin the formal remarks, I would like to remind you that certain statements on today's call, including expected future operational and financial performance and industry growth, are forward-looking statements that are made under the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those containing any forward-looking statements. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the reports or documents we have filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements only reflect our current and preliminary view as of today, and may be subject to change. Our ability to achieve these projections is subject to risks and uncertainties. All information provided in today's call is as of today, and we undertake no duty to update such information except as required under applicable law. Also, during the call, we'll occasionally reference monetary amounts in U.S. dollar terms. Please keep in mind that our functional currency is the Chinese RMB. We offer these translations into U.S. dollars solely for the convenience of the audience.
Mr. Xu will make his remarks regarding current market conditions and company performance in Chinese, which I will translate into English after he finishes. Now I'll turn the call to our CEO.
Xiang Xu (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, Anita. [Foreign language]
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
Hello everyone, this is Anita. I'll now translate our CEO Mr. Xu remarks. 2023 was a year of unforeseen developments and challenges in the solar industry with record installation volumes worldwide, but also record low prices at the end of the year.
Thanks to the dedication and valuable contribution of our team, we reached an annual production volume of 197,831 metric tons in 2023, meeting our guidance of 196,000-199,000 metric tons and representing a 47.8% year-over-year growth, growth rate, compared to 133,812 metric tons produced in 2022. We sold 200,002 metric tons, 50% higher than 132,909 metric tons in 2022. Despite robust demand growth for solar PV products globally in 2023, the high poly prices, driven by capacity mismatches between upstream and downstream players and the resulting supply shortages that we have seen in 2022, were alleviated by early 2023. As a result, poly ASP declined significantly for the year to $11 per kilo from $32.54 per kilogram in 2022. Our revenue was $2.3 billion in 2023, compared to $4.6 billion in 2022 due to much lower ASPs. The decline was partially offset by the higher sales volume.
Despite the challenging market, market conditions, gross margins still came in strong at 39.9% for 2023. The company generated a very strong operating cash flow of approximately $1.6 billion for the year, and continued to maintain a healthy balance sheet with no financial debt. By the end of the year, the company had a cash balance of $3 billion and a combined cash and bank notes receivable balance of $3.2 billion. During the fourth quarter, continued optimization of operations and improvements in yields and throughput at our two poly facilities resulted in total production volume of 61,014 metric tons, an increase of 3,350 metric tons compared to the previous quarter.
Fourth quarter saw solid demand from customers for high quality N-type poly, and as a result, our finished goods inventory was at a very low level, of which will have allowed us to effectively hedge against downside risks. During new capacity was released, the price disparity became more apparent between high-quality manufacturers and new entrants. Despite fierce market conditions due to the addition of poly supply, we continue to maintain our leadership in both cost and quality. Compared to the end of last year, our production costs trended down quarter over quarter, reducing by approximately $1.2 per kilo from fourth quarter of 2022 compared to that in fourth quarter of 2023. During the month of December, our N-type product mix reached approximately 60%.
Overall, we maintained profitable despite the challenging market conditions, generating $128 million in EBITDA for fourth quarter and maintained a strong cash flow. We expect our first quarter 2024 total poly production volume to be approximately 60,000-62,000 metric tons, similar to that for our fourth quarter 2023, as the company maintains full production. We plan to begin initial production at our new Inner Mongolia 5B+ facility in the second quarter of 2024, and as such, we anticipate full year 2024 production volume to be approximately 280,000-300,000 metric tons, approximately 40%-50% higher than in 2023.
With more than a decade of experience in poly production, as well as a fully digitalized and integrated production system that optimizes operational efficiency, will further increase N-type production in the product mix. Debriefing on the industry, poly prices in the fourth quarter declined from approximately RMB 87 per kilo for mono-grade poly in September to approximately RMB 65 per kilo in December, primarily due to a seasonally lower demand. On the demand side, in October, the ingot segment reduced utilization rates due to accumulated inventory and lower wafer prices. In November, N-type module prices dropped below RMB 1 per watt for the first time, and solar cell manufacturers could hardly make a profit.
On the supply side, poly production volumes in China continued to increase on a month-over-month basis in Q4, and tier two and tier three manufacturers, including new entrants, contributed most of the growth in poly supply. However, leading high-quality manufacturers produced less than anticipated, widening the price gap between high-quality manufacturers and two- and Tier Two companies. Near the end of December, N-type and P-type poly prices came in at around RMB 65-RMB 68 per kilogram and RMB 55-RMB 62 per kilogram, respectively. Going to the first quarter of 2024, we expect poly prices to rebound slightly in Q1, seasonally affected by the Chinese New Year, and then stabilize in Q2. The market transition to N-type products has been accelerating as downstream producers continue to switch to N-type products, driven by the higher price premium for N-type TOPCon products over P-type PERC products.
We expect this trend to continue throughout 2024, with strong demand for higher purity N-type poly in a market with tight supply. Overall, 2023 was an unprecedented year, marking a step change for renewable energy growth. The global acceleration in the transition to renewable energy was primarily driven by China's booming solar market, with new solar PV capacity reaching record high at 216.88 GW, a 148% year-over-year growth. This surge was particularly evident in December, when China added 53 GW, which is roughly a quarter of the entire year's additional capacity. Solar has become one of the most competitive forms of power generation. The continuous cost reduction in solar PV products and the associated reduction in solar energy generation costs are expected to create substantial additional green energy demand.
So with 2023 setting the stage for gradually phasing out P-type products, we believe that 2024 will mark the year when N-type products dominate the industry. We are optimistic that we'll capture the long-term benefits of the growing global solar PV product market, and maintain our competitive advantage by enhancing our higher efficiency N-type technology and optimizing our cost structure through digital transformation. In 2023 alone, we collected more than 20 billion manufacturing process data points at each of our poly production facilities. We believe that we have one of the largest pools of collected and stored poly production data amongst our peers in China.
So we have begun to apply AI to this vast amount of data to help increase the proportion of N-type in our product mix and reduce our production costs by identifying relationships across discrete processes and ultimately predicting the optimal inputs and parameters that will yield the best production results. We expect that as we collect more data and further leverage our AI-powered analytics to provide additional insights, we'll be able to further reduce costs, achieve higher efficiency, and increase productivity. So now I'll turn the call to our CFO, Mr. Ming Yang, who will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter. Ming, please go ahead.
Ming Yang (CFO)
Thank you, Anita. Hello, everyone, this is Ming Yang, CFO of Daqo New Energy. We appreciate you joining our earnings conference call today.
Well, first, go over the company's fourth quarter, 2023 financial performance, then follow with our full year 2023 financial results. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2023 were $477 million, compared to $484.8 million in the third quarter of 2023, and $864.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. The decrease in revenue compared to the third quarter of 2023 was primarily due to a decrease in sales volume, mitigated by increasing ASP. As Mr. Xu mentioned earlier, ASP for Q4 was $7.90 per kilogram, which was 3.8% above Q3 ASP of $7.68 per kilogram.
Gross profit was $87.2 million, compared to $67.8 million in the third quarter of 2023, at $669 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Gross margin was 18.3%, compared to 14% in the third quarter of 2023, and 77% in the fourth quarter of 2022. The increase in gross margin compared to the third quarter of 2023 was primarily due to higher average selling price and lower production costs. Despite an 8% increase in silicon metal procurement costs in Q4 compared to Q3, we managed to reduce costs slightly due to improvements in utilization, as well as other improvements in manufacturing efficiency. SG&A expenses were $39 million, compared to $89.7 million in the third quarter of 2023, and $44 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.
SG&A expenses during the fourth quarter includes $19.6 million in non-cash, share-based compensation expense related to the company's share incentive plan, compared to $46.3 million in the third quarter of 2023. R&D expenses were $3.3 million, compared to $2.8 million in the third quarter of 2023, and $2.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. R&D expenses can vary from period to period, reflect R&D activities that take place during the quarter. R&D activities for the quarter were primarily related to quality improvements and N-type product research. Foreign exchange loss was $0.8 million, compared to a gain of $3.1 million in the third quarter of 2023, and is attributed to the volatility and fluctuation in the USD, the CNY exchange rate during the quarter.
Income from operations was $83.3 million, compared to $22.5 million in the third quarter of 2023, and $623 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Operating margin was 17.5%, compared to 4.6% in the third quarter of 2023, and 72.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Net income attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders was $44.9 million, compared to net loss of $6.3 million in the third quarter of 2023, and net income of $332.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Earnings per basic ADS was $0.64, compared to loss per basic ADS of $0.09 in the third quarter, and earnings per basic ADS of $4.26 in the fourth quarter of 2022. Adjusted net income attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders, which excludes non-cash share-based compensation costs, was $66 million, compared to $44 million in the third quarter of 2023, and $363 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Adjusted earnings per basic ADS was $0.94, compared to $0.59 in the third quarter of 2023, and $4.65 in the fourth quarter of 2022. EBITDA was $128.2 million, compared to $70 million in the third quarter of 2023, and $649 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.
EBITDA margin was 26.9%, compared to 14.5% in the third quarter of 2023, and 75% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Now I will go over the company's full year 2023 financial results. Revenue for 2023 was $2.3 billion, compared to $4.6 billion in 2022. The decrease was primarily due to lower polysilicon average selling prices and partially mitigated by higher sales volume. Gross profit was $920.7 million for 2023, compared to $3.4 billion in 2022. Gross margin was 39.9%, compared to 74% in 2022. The decrease in gross profit was primarily due to lower average selling price. SG&A expenses were $213 million, compared to $354 million in 2022.
The decrease was primarily related to a reduction in non-cash share-based compensation costs related to the company's share incentive plan. Operating expenses in 2023 were $10 million, compared to $10 million in 2022. Operating income was $783.4 million, compared to $3 billion in 2022. Operating margin was 33.9%, compared to 66% in 2022. Net interest income was $52.3 million, compared to $14.5 million in 2022. The increase in interest income for 2023 was due to the company's higher cash balance at banks. Income tax expense was $174 million, compared to $577 million in 2022.
Net income attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders for the full year of 2023 was $421 million, compared to $1.8 billion in 2022. Earnings per basic ADS were $5.64, compared to $24 in 2022. Non-GAAP adjusted net income attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders was $554 million, compared to $2.1 billion in 2022. Adjusted earnings per basic ADS were $7.42 in 2023, compared to $27.97 in 2022. EBITDA was $918.6 million, compared to $3.15 billion in 2022. EBITDA margin was 39.8%, compared to 68.4% in 2022. Now on the company's financial condition.
As of December 31st, 2023, the company had $3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, compared to $3.28 billion as of September 30th, 2023, and $3.5 billion as of December 31st, 2022. At the end of 2023, the bank notes receivable balance was $116 million, compared to $275.8 million as of September 30th, 2023, and $1.13 billion as of December 31st, 2022. Notes receivable represent bank notes with maturity within six months. Now on the company's cash flow. For the 12 months ended December 31st, 2023, net cash provided by operating activities was $1.61 billion, compared to $2.46 billion in the same period of 2022.
For the 12 months ended December 31st, 2023, net cash used in investing activities was $1.19 billion, compared to $998 million in the same period of 2022. Net cash used in investing activities in 2023 was primarily related to the company's capital expenditures on the company's 5A and 5B polysilicon expansion projects in Baotou City, Inner Mongolia. For the 12 months ended December 31st, 2023, net cash used in financing activities was $795 million, compared to $1.47 billion of net cash provided by financing activities in the same period of 2022.
The net cash used in investing activities in 2023 was primarily related to $486 million in share purchases and $303 million in dividend payments made by the company's subsidiary, Xinjiang Daqo, to its minority shareholders on China's A-share market. That concludes our prepared remarks. We will now open the call to Q&A from the audience. Operator, please begin.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Phil Shen with Roth MKM. Please go ahead.
Philip Shen (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
First one is on the outlook for price. You said in your prepared remarks that poly prices could rebound in Q1 and then stabilize in Q2. Can you quantify what N-type and P-type pricing could be in Q1? You know, when you say rebound slightly, you know, what does that mean? And then would you expect that to just be flat in Q2? And then if you have any view on what poly pricing does in the back half of 2024, that would be very helpful. Thanks.
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
[Foreign language]
Xiang Xu (Chairman and CEO)
[Foreign language]
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
So based on our understanding of the market supply and demand and our own forecast, we expect that in the first half, N-type will range between RMB 70-73 per kilogram, while P-type will be around RMB 65 per kilogram. In the second half, depending on demand and whether it will exhibit a slight recovery and a growth, we expect that N-type might rebound to RMB 80 per kilogram, and P-type around RMB 75 per kilogram.
Philip Shen (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Got it. And can you explain the dynamics for what's going on, and why there could be that expansion of price? Is it have you seen from an industry structure standpoint, have you seen many players exit or shut down? And do you expect utilization to be lower so as a result of having limited supply? Or do you expect the demand to be, you know, the offsetting factor resulting in, you know, the higher price? Thanks.
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
[Foreign language]
Xiang Xu (Chairman and CEO)
[Foreign language]
Ming Yang (CFO)
How should I say it? No, let me speak. Oh, so, I'll say it for Mr. Xu. Okay, in terms of dynamic, right? So if we look at the current market, we are actually in a period of relatively low end market demand. We think the current end market movement in terms of module production utilization is probably only 60%-70% compared to, say, the September level of last year. So and but this already brings us to N-type poly in the RMB 70-73 range, and P-type in the 60s range, right?
Much improvement from the December level of pricing. So we do think going into the summer, when the demand level recovers, right, let's say that we can recover to the level that we saw in the August-September time frame, then certainly we think, you know, N-type can easily go back to the RMB 80 level, while P-type probably in the RMB 70 level. And in terms of what we're seeing in the market, where overall we are seeing a relative oversupply of poly relative to demand, but specifically we look at the N-type poly, we...
Based on industry statistics, we think there's only around 60,000-70,000 metric ton of supply per month, while, the demand we think actually exceeds, a 100,000 metric ton a month, based on the amount of N-type cell capacity that has been put in place in the market. So we do believe we will continue to see a very strong demand, robust demand for N-type in a tight supply market going forward. And actually, that's what we're seeing today even for N-type products.
Philip Shen (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Great, thank you, Ming. Do you think, you know, from a capacity standpoint for N-type, do you see others trying to ramp up that N-type poly capacity? And do you think they can be successful to try to close the gap? Or, do you expect this difference between supply and demand under, you know, the under supply situation, that how long could that last? You know, could that last about a year? Or do you think it's you know, maybe just six months, or could it last for a number of years? Thanks.
Ming Yang (CFO)
[Foreign language]
Xiang Xu (Chairman and CEO)
[Foreign language]
Ming Yang (CFO)
[Foreign language]
Xiang Xu (Chairman and CEO)
65, 67.
[Foreign language]
Ming Yang (CFO)
in N-type.
Xiang Xu (Chairman and CEO)
[Foreign language]
[Foreign language]
[Foreign language]
[Foreign language]
[Foreign language]
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
So our N-type production in a product mix is in between 60%-70% as of now. And based on our awareness, our peers, especially the top players like Tongwei, it's somewhat similar to our N-type production level. But for the new players, they are almost incapable in producing the N-type at the current stage. So we believe that this year it will still be a market where there's tight N-type supply.
Philip Shen (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, great. Thank you! One last one, and then I'll pass it on. You know, the stock is down 30% year to date. What's your view or thinking around another buyback program? Could you add more to the program or restart it? And is that something that you're interested in doing? Thanks.
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
[Foreign language}
Xiang Xu (Chairman and CEO)
[Foreign language]
...
[Foreign language]
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
So thank you. Thank you, Phil. So we are... First of all, we are very confident in our company's operations, and we have sufficient cash flows that Min has mentioned previously. However, as the market is currently undergoing tremendous challenges, and there are a lot of unforeseeable market dynamics happening, the Board is keeping a close eye on the current market conditions and see how it evolves as time goes. And we believe that we still want to maintain a very healthy balance sheet to survive in this market and to undergo the current conditions. That being said, we have, we are still considering the share repurchase plan, but that will be contingent upon, the A share dividend plan, which the A share, Board will discuss.
Once they decide on the A-share dividend plan for 2023, we believe that we will get back to our investors about whether it will release another share repurchase program or via other methods to increase shareholder confidence like dividends.
Philip Shen (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, thank you very much. I'll pass it on.
Ming Yang (CFO)
Okay. Thanks, Phil.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question comes from Alan Lau, from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Alan Lau (Executive Director in Equity Research)
Thanks a lot for taking my question. Actually the Q4 result is decent amid the challenging market situation. So, a couple of questions. First of all, what is the CapEx plan for 2024?
Ming Yang (CFO)
Okay. Hi, hi, Alan, this is Ming. So regarding the CapEx plan this year, so if you look at our ongoing, CapEx projects, right? So primarily, this year will be for the Inner Mongolia Phase II. That's where we're spending most of our CapEx, as well as some of the remaining payments on the Inner Mongolia Phase I.
There's some small payments on the semiconductor project that's expected to start production this year, and then our silicon metal projects in both Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. From that perspective, our current CapEx budget for the year is around RMB 8 billion-RMB 9 billion for 2024 to implement the above projects, and we're expecting that. In terms of U.S. dollars, roughly $1.1 billion-$1.3 billion, and certainly the CapEx fully funded.
Alan Lau (Executive Director in Equity Research)
Thanks a lot. So, following the question from Phil, because some of the investors are also asking as to there's $200 million remaining from the $700 million buyback program last year. So this amount of cash is sitting offshore already, and it's not contingent to any of the distribution from the A-share level. So is there any preliminary plans, like if dividends is open for consideration? Because some of the peers, some of the ADRs have also announced dividend payout, which has resulted in a good reaction from the market.
Xiang Xu (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah.
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
[Foreign language]
[Foreign language]
Xiang Xu (Chairman and CEO)
[Foreign language]
We can all consider it. We can all discuss it, right? It's like this. It's about the $200 million from last year. We haven't repurchased yet. We haven't reached our...
[Foreign language]
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
Regarding the $200 million remaining of our $700 million share repurchase program announced, like, Mr. Xu has mentioned previously, that will be discussed after the A-share dividend plan is set in stone, and we will definitely consider whether to give off dividends or to, to roll out another share repurchase. We believe that, we will definitely consider these plans to increase confidence in our company and in our management team.
Xiang Xu (Chairman and CEO)
[Foreign language]
[Foreign language]
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
Mr. Xu is also a Board member in Xinjiang Daqo, and the payout ratio for 2023 is still not decided yet, as they have not convened to have the Board meeting for the A-share. Given that, we cannot say for sure what program we are going to roll out or what the amount will be, but we hope that our investors could understand, and once the Xinjiang Daqo announces their dividend plan for the year, we will announce at the same time, and our Board will continue to discuss further on the topic.
Alan Lau (Executive Director in Equity Research)
Thanks a lot. That's very clear. So switching gear to some of the technical questions. Since recently, there's some trial in the downstream players in regards to cauliflower type N-type poly. So I wonder if that may help to relieve the shortage in N-type poly or... And also, are new players able to achieve that type of purity even for the cauliflower type poly? Good. Thanks.
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
[Foreign language]
[Foreign language]
Xiang Xu (Chairman and CEO)
[Foreign language]
[Foreign language]
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
So we have been talking with our downstream players, like TCL, LONGi, very fervently. Based on our understanding, it's still very difficult to produce N type with other, let's say, cauliflower type poly. There's still a very high barrier to tackle, and we are keeping an eye on the new technology, but based on our understanding, there's still a huge step towards making N type with cauliflower poly.
Alan Lau (Executive Director in Equity Research)
Thank you. That's very clear. My last question is in regards to the power tariff, because I think quite a lot of investors have inquired the power tariff hike in Sichuan, and actually that's a general situation in China. The power prices has been increasing. So would like to know in relation to our deal in Xinjiang and also our power prices in Inner Mongolia, what is our view on that? And will there be risk of further power hike, power tariff hike, and will that lead to increase in production cost? Thanks.
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
[Foreign language]
Ming Yang (CFO)
[Foreign language]
Xiang Xu (Chairman and CEO)
[Foreign language]
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
We are aware of the electricity cost increases in Sichuan. However, because Sichuan uses State Grid and the local government has limited power on the electricity cost, and based on our information, the increase in electricity costs will increase production costs for players located in that region up by RMB 7,000. However, for-
Ming Yang (CFO)
Per ton.
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
Per ton.
Ming Yang (CFO)
7,000
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
Yeah, RMB 700... RMB 7,000 per ton. So, however, for us, Xinjiang uses local grid, and we signed an exclusivity agreement with the government, we are not very worried about electricity costs. Similarly, for Inner Mongolia, they rely on local grid as well.
Actually, the primary reason why we chose these two location at the first place was because they use local grid, so we can enjoy the preferential electricity agreement and the lower electricity cost.
Alan Lau (Executive Director in Equity Research)
Thanks a lot, Mr. Xu, Anita, and Ming. Very clear answer. I'll pass on. Thanks.
Ming Yang (CFO)
Great. Thank you, Alan.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question comes from Andrew Corporate with Private Investor. Please go ahead.
Speaker 6
Hello. So my question is, when is exactly the Xinjiang, A-share dividend declared? Like, what month this year? Is it May? Is it April, July? This is my first question.
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
[Foreign language]
Xiang Xu (Chairman and CEO)
[Foreign language]
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
Based on the A-share regulation and disclosure requirements, we expect to announce sometime near the end of March. As we have said previously, after the A-share Xinjiang Daqo announces their dividend plan for the year, we will discuss among our Board again whether to roll out another share purchase program or to distribute dividends.
Speaker 6
Okay. So, like in March, April, we should hear also from the Daqo, New York Stock Exchange-listed company, a response on the dividend or the extended buyback or special dividend from the cash balance or something like that. So April, let's say April start to mid-April?
Ming Yang (CFO)
Yes. Yeah, that will be the likely timeline, yes, after A-share announce their, their dividend level.
Speaker 6
Okay. Thank you very much. Also, I want to co-congratulate you for the increase in production. I think it was 50, 60%, I don't remember, and also the guidance, very great, well, whilst also decreasing the cost. So very great result. My last question is for 2025 CapEx investments, are there any? How much would CapEx be in 2025? So in 2024, we have RMB 8 billion-9 billion, so $1.1 billion or $1.2 billion, whatever. So what would be 2025? Would you expect to increase CapEx to have huge products like this year or lower CapEx, $500 million downwards?
Ming Yang (CFO)
Okay. So this is Ming. So I will address the CapEx issue. So I think 2025 CapEx is, will be mostly the remaining payments on the Inner Mongolia phase two, and some of the remaining payments on our silicon metal project. The current estimate is roughly RMB 3 billion-RMB 4 billion. So I think that's maybe $400 million-$600-
Speaker 6
Okay.
Ming Yang (CFO)
million.
Speaker 6
Yeah, yeah.
Ming Yang (CFO)
Yeah.
Speaker 6
Yeah. So considering this, so at the end of 2024, 'cause you, you're trading at a quick ratio of, 5 or 4.5, I don't know, if it decreased a bit 'cause you some of your cash. It's a huge quick ratio. You never had a quick ratio this high. So my question is, after this $1.1 billion in CapEx in 2024, would the cash decrease? Let's say we're staying at current prices or at your current forecast, polysilicon would not increase, I don't know, 50% or something. So at the current prices, how much would cash equivalents decrease this year, to $2.5 billion? So now they're $3 billion, right?
To $2.5 billion or to $2.1 billion?
Ming Yang (CFO)
Um,
Speaker 6
After the $1.1 billion CapEx this year.
Ming Yang (CFO)
Yeah. This is going to be a really rough-
Speaker 6
Almost.
Ming Yang (CFO)
estimate because it's very much subject to
Speaker 6
Yeah.
Ming Yang (CFO)
Pricing beginning of the year.
Speaker 6
Exactly.
Ming Yang (CFO)
We think, based on estimate, operating cash flow should be in the range of maybe RMB 4 billion-RMB 4.5 billion, something in that ballpark. So-
Speaker 6
Okay.
Ming Yang (CFO)
We should be close to, say, RMB 2.5 billion. Yeah, yeah. A U.S. dollar, actually. $2.5 billion is-
Speaker 6
Yeah.
Ming Yang (CFO)
Cash on, something on that range.
Speaker 6
Okay. Okay, and considering the discount from Shanghai-listed Daqo, which we own 72.4%, if I remember, 73-
Ming Yang (CFO)
Yes.
Speaker 6
- percent.
Ming Yang (CFO)
That's correct.
Speaker 6
With your repurchasing, did you continue it in Q1? Like, now we're in February 28, so 65 days passed. Did you repurchase any shares at the current Daqo prices? So at 20-
Ming Yang (CFO)
Well-
Speaker 6
... $21-$24 today?
Ming Yang (CFO)
For the U.S. shares?
Speaker 6
For Q1, yeah, U.S. shares.
Ming Yang (CFO)
The year.
Speaker 6
Did you repurchase?
Ming Yang (CFO)
For U.S. Our repurchase program ended at the end of last year, end of 2023. We don't have a repurchase plan right now for-
But I think the Board is considering a repurchase plan for the full year, so that's why we want to see what the dividend looks like from-
Speaker 6
Oh, okay.
Ming Yang (CFO)
Xinjiang Daqo. So, once that come out, then the full year-
Speaker 6
I thought you had 20% left or 30% left out of the first of the $700 billion. I thought you had $200 billion as the other, the first analyst said.
Ming Yang (CFO)
Yes.
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
Regarding the share purchase plan, when it was announced in November 2022, the expiration date of this program is until December 31st, 2023.
Speaker 6
Yeah.
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
So that being said, because of the date, the program ended in 2023. And we have completed-
Speaker 6
Uh, and-
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
For the $700 million share repurchase program.
Speaker 6
You have... Can you repeat again? You have completed?
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
Before the program expired by the end of 2023, we have completed almost 70% of the entire program.
Speaker 6
Okay. And I think, just so investors know, I think this was due to not being able to buy more at current prices, 'cause you are limited. Like, you can buy only 25% of the volume on your stock exchange, I think. You could have-
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
Oh, the reason why.
Speaker 6
You couldn't have bought more, right?
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
Yes, primarily.
Speaker 6
Okay. Okay. Last recommendation would be, if you could do a special dividend or a dividend yield, maybe it will attract investors. I think Daqo is very underpriced, considering you have net debt zero and you own the Shanghai-listed shares. So a dividend, a big dividend, would a big yield like 10, 12, 13% special dividend or a normal dividend, I think it would attract investors. Yeah, that's the last thing.
Ming Yang (CFO)
Okay.
Speaker 6
After, of course, you've returned from Shanghai.
Ming Yang (CFO)
Okay. That's well noted. We'll share that with our Board as well.
Speaker 6
Yeah. Okay. 'Cause you're trading at a 0.3 price to book, so... And you're increasing revenue by 40%-50%, actually, volume, so you should, you should big dividends to attract investors. Thank you very much, and have a wonderful year and continue doing what you do.
Ming Yang (CFO)
Great. Thank you so much. Thank you for your interest in the company.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference over back to Miss Anita Zhu, for any closing remarks.
Anita Zhu (Investor Relations Associate)
Thank you, everyone, again, for participating in today's conference call. Should you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Thank you, and have an awesome day. Good night.
Ming Yang (CFO)
Good night.
Operator (participant)
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.