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DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC (DRI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 FY2025 delivered resilient profitability despite weather headwinds: total sales rose 6.2% to $3.16B, reported diluted EPS $2.74 and adjusted diluted EPS $2.80, up 6.9% YoY, with restaurant-level EBITDA margin up 50 bps YoY to 21.1% .
  • Same-restaurant sales were +0.7% (OG +0.6%, LongHorn +2.6%, Fine Dining -0.8%, Other Business -0.4%), with management noting ~100 bps weather drag and ~90 bps Thanksgiving shift impact; adjusted for these, same-restaurant sales were ~2.6% and sequentially improved .
  • FY2025 outlook narrowed: adjusted diluted EPS $9.45–$9.52 (from $9.40–$9.60), weighted average diluted shares guided to 118.3M; other items maintained (sales ~$12.1B, SSS ~1.5%, capex ~$650M, inflation ~2.5%, tax ~12.5%) .
  • Execution catalysts: Olive Garden “Fan Favorites” and Buy One, Take One LTO; first‑party delivery (Uber Direct) rolled systemwide at OG and piloted at Cheddar’s; smaller prototypes to accelerate unit growth. Management highlighted improved March trends and expects Q4 SSS >3% with adjusted EPS $2.88–$2.95 and sales $3.23–$3.26B .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “Several brands set sales records during the holidays and on Valentine’s Day,” underpinning portfolio strength; segments grew total sales and segment margin .
    • Olive Garden’s Fan Favorites (Steak Gorgonzola Alfredo, Stuffed Chicken Marsala) improved base traffic/sales; delivery rolled to nearly all OG units via Uber Direct with higher average check vs curbside and strong early uptake .
    • LongHorn momentum persisted: same-restaurant sales +2.6% (5.0% adjusted for calendar/weather), segment margin +70 bps YoY to 19.4%; quality/operations (Grill Master program) drove all-time high “steaks grilled correctly” score .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Weather and Thanksgiving shift damped reported SSS by ~100 bps and ~90 bps respectively; Fine Dining SSS -0.8% (≈-1% adjusted), with persistent check management post holidays .
    • Inflation step-up expected in Q4 to ~3%, with commodities (beef, chicken, seafood) turning inflationary; operating profit not seen growing materially YoY given pricing below inflation .
    • Casual consumer below $50k income showed pullback; Fine Dining remained soft, with management cautious despite holiday strength .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.757 $2.890 $3.158
Reported Diluted EPS ($)$1.74 $1.82 $2.74
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$1.75 $2.03 $2.80
Same-restaurant Sales (%)-1.1% 2.4% 0.7%
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$269.2 $292.1 $418.2
Operating Margin (%)9.8% (269.2/2,757.0) 10.1% (292.1/2,890.0) 13.3% (418.2/3,158.0)
Restaurant-level EBITDA ($USD Millions)$445 $559
Restaurant-level EBITDA Margin (%)19.5% 21.1%
Marketing Expenses ($USD Millions)$44.7 $48.8 $35.4
Effective Tax Rate (%)12.3% 13.4%
Consensus Revenue* ($USD Billions)$2.800*$2.869*$3.216*
Consensus EPS* ($)$1.833*$2.023*$2.795*

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown (Q3 2024 → Q3 2025)

SegmentQ3 2024 Sales ($USD Millions)Q3 2025 Sales ($USD Millions)Q3 2024 Segment Profit ($USD Millions)Q3 2025 Segment Profit ($USD Millions)
Olive Garden$1,310.2 $1,330.3 $294.7 $306.6
LongHorn Steakhouse$730.7 $768.1 $136.6 $149.3
Fine Dining$372.9 $385.3 $81.4 $86.1
Other Business$561.0 $674.3 $83.7 $104.0
Consolidated Darden$2,974.8 $3,158.0

KPIs

KPIQ3 2025YoY
Same-restaurant Sales – Consolidated Darden0.7% +0.7 pp
Same-restaurant Sales – Olive Garden0.6% +0.6 pp
Same-restaurant Sales – LongHorn2.6% +2.6 pp
Same-restaurant Sales – Fine Dining-0.8% -0.8 pp
Same-restaurant Sales – Other Business-0.4% -0.4 pp
Company-owned restaurants (Total)2,165 +143 vs 2,022
OG delivery mix (pilot restaurants)~2.5% of sales Higher check vs curbside
Share repurchases$53M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total SalesFY2025~$12.1B ~$12.1B Maintained
Same-restaurant Sales GrowthFY2025~1.5%* ~1.5%* Maintained
New Restaurant OpeningsFY202550–55 50–55 Maintained
Total Capital SpendingFY2025~$650M ~$650M Maintained
Total InflationFY2025~2.5% ~2.5% Maintained
Effective Tax RateFY2025~12.5% ~12.5% Maintained
Weighted Avg Diluted SharesFY2025~118M 118.3M Raised
Adjusted Diluted EPS (cont. ops)FY2025$9.40–$9.60 $9.45–$9.52 Narrowed (midpoint ~unchanged)
DividendQuarterly$1.40/share declared (Q2) $1.40/share declared (Q3) Maintained

*Does not include Ruth’s Chris and Chuy’s due to 16-month ownership rule .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
First‑party delivery (Uber Direct)Q2: ~100 OG pilots; single‑digit basis point sales impact; higher average order; systemwide rollout targeted by end of Q3 OG fully rolled out; pilot at Cheddar’s (10 units); delivery checks ~20% higher than pickup; early 40–50% incrementality; catering items ~12% of delivery sales Scaling across brands; positive early economics
Menu “news” & valueQ1: Soft July; reiteration of FY guide ; Q2: Extended NEPB; Fan Favorites return; targeted compelling price points Buy One, Take One LTO at $14.99 starting price; improved base traffic/sales; value scores gradually rising Re-accelerating traffic via disciplined LTOs
POS modernization & tech/dataQ2: Next-gen POS rewrite; modern UI; faster analytics; staged rollout POS piloted at two OG restaurants; Chuy’s next; operators prefer new POS despite early bugs Execution progress; supports speed/analytics
Supply chain & commoditiesQ2: Commodities slightly deflationary; beef coverage strategy Q4 inflation step-up; beef/chicken/seafood inflationary; still buying chicken below market via contracts Inflation rising near term; contracts mitigate
Tariffs/macroQ2: Consumer sentiment improving; hurricanes impact Potential tariffs: ~80% domestic sourcing; mitigation via alt sourcing, vendor negotiation Monitoring; limited direct exposure
Pace of serviceQ2: Early brand-specific initiatives; long-term change management Early improvements across brands; long-term program; not yet attributing traffic gains Gradual improvement underway
Portfolio developmentQ2: Target high-end of unit growth framework; capex step-up Smaller prototypes (Yard House, Cheddar’s) ~20% smaller, ~15% cheaper; performance at/above expectations Enables accelerated unit growth

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “All of our segments grew total sales and segment profit margin… reinforcing the strength of our portfolio and the loyalty of our guests.”
  • Olive Garden strategy: “Fan Favorites… significantly improved base traffic and sales trends… delivery available in all restaurants… with a higher check average than curbside.”
  • LongHorn execution: “All-time high steaks grilled correctly score in the third quarter… investments in food quality continue to pay off.”
  • Integration: “Chuy’s… HR platform conversion now; supply chain transitions begin in June; POS transition late summer.”
  • Outlook tone: Adjusted EPS narrowed; Q4 inflation up to ~3%; Q4 adjusted EPS $2.88–$2.95 and SSS >3% .

Q&A Highlights

  • Margin outlook and inflation: Q4 inflation ~3% vs low-2s in first three quarters; pricing below inflation implies flattish operating margins YoY .
  • Delivery economics: Delivery checks ~20% higher than pickup; early 40–50% incrementality without significant awareness advertising; pilot units ~2.5% of sales .
  • Tariff exposure: ~80% of cost basket domestically sourced; non-importer of record for imported items; mitigation via inventory and alternative sourcing .
  • Value and marketing cadence: Marketing expected +10–20 bps YoY; connected TV/digital effectiveness rising; Uber co-funds limited TV campaign .
  • Consumer segmentation: Growth in $50k–$100k cohort; under $50k casual consumer negative after weather adjustments; sentiment changes not tightly correlated to dining spend post‑COVID .

Estimates Context

  • Versus consensus (S&P Global): Q3 revenue $3.158B vs $3.216B estimate* (miss); adjusted EPS $2.80 vs $2.795* (beat), reported EPS $2.74 (below adjusted comparator). Q2 revenue $2.890B vs $2.869B (beat); adjusted EPS $2.03 vs $2.023* (beat). Q1 revenue $2.757B vs $2.800B* (miss); adjusted EPS $1.75 vs $1.833* (miss). Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Implications: Modest top-line shortfall in Q3 driven by weather/calendar, offset by disciplined cost control and mix; estimate revisions may shift toward slightly stronger Q4 comps and EPS within the narrowed FY range, with near‑term inflation pressure acknowledged .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Cost discipline and scale advantages preserved margins despite weather; restaurant-level EBITDA margin expanded to 21.1% (+50 bps YoY) .
  • Traffic catalysts in place: OG LTOs and first‑party delivery should support Q4 >3% SSS and adjusted EPS $2.88–$2.95; monitor the delivery awareness campaign impact .
  • Inflation turning up in Q4; pricing kept below inflation—expect operating profit to be flat YoY; watch commodities (beef/chicken/seafood) .
  • Portfolio strengthening: Smaller, cheaper prototypes performing at/above plan; supports higher unit growth trajectory into FY2026 (60–65 openings) .
  • Tariff and macro risks manageable given domestic sourcing and supplier negotiation; consumer resilience persists, with <$50k cohort softer .
  • FY2025 guidance narrowed around ~$9.49 adjusted EPS with shares at 118.3M; dividends maintained at $1.40/quarter and $548M buyback capacity remaining .
  • Near-term positioning: Expect estimate fine-tuning toward Q4 comp/EPS ranges; setup favors operators executing value/news without deep discounting, benefiting OG and LongHorn .

Citations: Earnings press release and 8-K ; Earnings call transcript ; Prior quarter releases and transcript ; Uber partnership release . Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.