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DT Midstream, Inc. (DTM)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Strong start to 2025: Q1 net income $108M and $1.06 diluted EPS; Adjusted EBITDA $280M; DCF $250M; dividend declared at $0.82/share .
  • Versus consensus: revenue beat ($303M vs $285.0M*), EPS slight miss ($1.06 vs $1.078*); company-reported Adjusted EBITDA $280M; management reaffirmed FY25/FY26 outlooks .
  • Integration of newly acquired interstate pipelines is on schedule; winter utilization was high; commercial pipeline remains active, including Midwestern lateral under construction and Millennium open season (not in backlog) .
  • Near-term watch items: Q2 EBITDA expected lower on seasonality and a previously-set Guardian rate step-down; however FY25 guidance maintained and project backlog supports H2 ramp .
  • Post-quarter credit milestone: Moody’s upgraded DTM to Baa3 (now two-agency IG along with Fitch), a positive for liquidity and interest costs .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Full-quarter performance uplift from interstate pipelines; integration completed for financial systems within 90 days and winter utilization was high; management reaffirmed 2025 and 2026 ranges .
    • Organic growth advancing: construction started on Midwestern Gas Transmission lateral to AES Indiana’s Petersburg plant; ~$2.3B backlog progressing on schedule/budget .
    • Haynesville gathering volumes rebounded to 1.67 Bcf/d; management sees strong activity from public and private producers and expects continued ramp into year-end .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Q2 outlook: management flagged seasonal step-down in pipelines (including JVs) and a rate step-down on Guardian settled in 2024; expects Q2 EBITDA below Q1 before H2 strength .
    • Northeast volumes decreased to 1.30 Bcf/d, driven by timing of producer activity across Appalachia/Susquehanna; still in line with the full-year plan .
    • Macro/tariff uncertainty remains a broader backdrop; management expects minimal impact due to no commodity exposure, high demand-based contracting, and procurement already secured for in-flight projects .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($)$248.0M*$249.0M*$303.0M*
Diluted EPS ($)$0.90 $0.94 (Operating EPS) $1.06
Net Income ($M)$88 $73 $108
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$241 $235 $280
Distributable Cash Flow ($M)$207 $133 $250
  • Notes: Revenue actuals shown from S&P Global; company did not disclose revenue in the press release. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Margins (S&P Global basis; EBITDA vs revenue)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025
EBITDA Margin %66.7%*69.6%*
  • Values retrieved from S&P Global.* Company-reported Adjusted EBITDA (includes equity-method EBITDA) is not directly comparable to consolidated revenue margin.

Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($M)

SegmentQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Pipeline$156 $156 $197
Gathering$85 $79 $83

KPIs (Volumes)

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025
Haynesville throughput (Bcf/d)1.42 1.67
Northeast throughput (Bcf/d)1.37 1.30

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$1.095–$1.155B (raised on 2/26/25) $1.095–$1.155B (reaffirmed) Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA (early outlook)FY 2026$1.155–$1.225B $1.155–$1.225B (reaffirmed) Maintained
Operating EarningsFY 2025$415–$455M $415–$455M Maintained
Operating EPSFY 2025$4.05–$4.45 $4.05–$4.45 Maintained
Distributable Cash FlowFY 2025$740–$800M $740–$800M Maintained
Capital Expenditures (Total)FY 2025$470–$550M $470–$550M Maintained
Growth CapexFY 2025$400–$460M $400–$460M Maintained
Maintenance CapexFY 2025$70–$90M $70–$90M Maintained
Dividend (quarterly)Q1 2025$0.82/share (declared 2/26/25) $0.82/share (declared 4/30/25) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Data centers & power demand“Advancing discussions” in Q3; portfolio positioned for MISO/PJM growth in Q4 deck .“Large group of proposals” across footprint; utility-scale sites advancing; confident DTM will secure share .Increasing momentum
Tariffs/macro resilienceNot a major focus previously.Expect no material effect; no commodity exposure; ~95% demand-based; components procured for in-flight projects .Improving confidence
Regional volumesQ3/Q4 steady to down in Haynesville/Northeast; H’ville ~1.51–1.42 Bcf/d; Northeast ~1.37 Bcf/d .Haynesville rebounded to 1.67 Bcf/d; Northeast dipped to 1.30 Bcf/d (timing) .Mixed: H’ville up, NE timing
Regulatory/permittingCCS permit pathway discussed in prior materials .Growing political/regulatory support for gas infrastructure; Millennium open season launched (not in backlog) .Improving backdrop
LNG linkageLEAP Phase 4 FID and LNG connectivity highlighted in Q3/Q4 decks .Woodside FID positive; LEAP connects to new header system; ongoing bite-size expansions .Positive catalyst
Credit profileFitch IG in Oct-2024; path to broader IG noted .Achieved two-agency IG in May (Moody’s Baa3) .Upgraded

Management Commentary

  • “We are off to a strong start in 2025… We are reaffirming our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range and our 2026 adjusted EBITDA early outlook range.” — David Slater, CEO .
  • “Our first quarter results give us a great start to the year… progress… with the integration of our new interstate pipelines.” — David Slater, CEO .
  • “Looking ahead to the second quarter… adjusted EBITDA to be lower than the first quarter, driven by seasonality… and [an] expected rate step-down on Guardian pipeline… included in our transaction purchase multiple and… guidance.” — Jeff Jewell, CFO .
  • “We expect tariffs will have no material effect on us… no commodity exposure… strong contracts that are ~95% demand-based… ~$1 billion of liquidity and no near-term debt maturities.” — David Slater, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Volumes: Haynesville strength driven by public and especially private producers responding to price signals; expected ramp through year-end; Northeast softer on timing, consistent with plan .
  • Data centers & utility-scale power: Numerous mature proposals “across our entire footprint” for behind-the-meter; utility-scale sites progressing (e.g., West Virginia project in PJM) .
  • Millennium open season: Early-stage; reflects strong inbound demand; not included in backlog; opportunity to expand Northeast/Mid-Atlantic reach .
  • LEAP expansions: “Bite-size” incremental expansions likely to continue; Woodside FID a positive catalyst; DTM well-positioned competitively .
  • Macro resilience: High share of demand-based contracts, investment-grade customers, ample liquidity, no near-term maturities underpin confidence in reaffirmed FY25/FY26 outlooks despite uncertainty .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $303.0M vs $285.0M*; EPS $1.06 vs $1.078* (beat on revenue, slight EPS miss). Company-reported Adjusted EBITDA $280M; note definitions can differ from S&P’s EBITDA basis .
  • Prior quarters: Q4 2024 EPS $0.94 vs $0.915*; revenue $249.0M vs $253.8M*; Q3 2024 EPS $0.90 vs $0.958*; revenue $248.0M vs $241.6M*.
  • Implications: Revenue upside and strong pipeline utilization support FY guidance; seasonal Q2 dip is already embedded in outlook, so estimate revisions likely focus on intra-year cadence rather than full-year totals .

Consensus vs Actuals (S&P Global)

PeriodMetricConsensusActualSurprise
Q1 2025Revenue ($)285.0M*303.0M*+18.0M*
Q1 2025EPS ($)1.078*1.06-0.018*
Q4 2024Revenue ($)253.8M*249.0M*-4.8M*
Q4 2024EPS ($)0.915*0.94+0.025*
Q3 2024Revenue ($)241.6M*248.0M*+6.4M*
Q3 2024EPS ($)0.958*0.90-0.058*
  • Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Reaffirmed FY25/FY26 outlooks with Q1 strength and clear H2 ramp drivers (projects/volumes) despite a guided seasonal Q2 dip — supportive for estimate stability near-term .
  • Interstate pipeline integration and winter utilization exceeded expectations; commercial opportunity set on acquired assets looks “more robust” than initially assessed .
  • LNG pull (Woodside FID) and power demand growth (data centers, utility-scale generation) are tangible multi-year catalysts; DTM’s network is positioned to connect supply basins to these markets .
  • Contract quality (∼95% demand-based), minimal commodity/volume exposure, and freshly reinforced investment-grade credit profile reduce downside risk into macro volatility .
  • Watch list: Q2 seasonality/Guardian rate step-down; Millennium open season progress; Haynesville activity follow-through; timing of additional FIDs in backlog .
  • Dividend durability intact (declared $0.82/share; long-term 5–7% growth target) with ample DCF coverage and self-funded growth plan .
  • Stock reaction catalysts: further FIDs (LEAP, power laterals, Northeast expansions), data center wins, and continued credit spread improvement following IG upgrades .
Additional detail and reconciliations are available in the company’s press release and slide deck, including non-GAAP definitions for Operating Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA, and DCF **[1842022_0000947871-25-000436_ss4763310_ex9901.htm:1]** **[1842022_0000947871-25-000436_ss4763310_ex9901.htm:2]** **[1842022_0000947871-25-000436_ss4763310_ex9902.htm:8]** **[1842022_0000947871-25-000436_ss4763310_ex9902.htm:10]**-**[1842022_0000947871-25-000436_ss4763310_ex9902.htm:12]**.