Executive Summary

Q2 2025 delivered solid results: Net income $107M, $1.04 EPS, and Adjusted EBITDA $277M; pipeline segment dipped modestly QoQ due to a planned Guardian rate step-down, partially offset by short-term revenues on LEAP and Stonewall .
Management reaffirmed FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.095–$1.155B and the 2026 early outlook of $1.155–$1.225B, signaling confidence in execution despite near-term seasonality .
Commercial momentum accelerated: ~$600M of organic projects reached FID (Guardian “G3” + interstate modernization Phase 1), with ~90% in the pipeline segment; Haynesville gathering throughput hit an all-time quarterly record at 1.74 Bcf/d (+16% YoY) .
Credit tailwind: DTM achieved full investment-grade ratings across Fitch, Moody’s, and S&P (upgraded by Moody’s and S&P in Q2), improving cost of capital and strategic flexibility .
Near-term setup: management guided Q3 Adjusted EBITDA roughly in line with Q2, with a seasonal ramp in Q4; catalysts include power-demand-driven pipeline opportunities and LNG connectivity expansions .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

FIDs and backlog conversion: “We’ve reached FID on approximately $600 million of new organic growth projects… ~90% within our growing pipeline segment,” including Guardian “G3” (210 MMcf/d, 20-year contract) and Phase 1 interstate modernization ($130–$150M) .
Power demand tailwinds: “The PJM auction cleared at over $329 per megawatt day… highest price ever recorded,” underscoring strong regional demand; DTM is advancing opportunities in PJM/MISO and sees >40% demand growth over 20 years .
Balance sheet strength: Achieved investment grade from all three agencies, supporting lower financing costs and greater optionality; dividend maintained at $0.82/share, with a 5–7% long-term dividend growth target aligned to EBITDA growth .

What Went Wrong

Modest QoQ pressure in pipeline segment: Q2 pipeline Adjusted EBITDA fell $3M QoQ due to a planned rate step-down on Guardian effective April 1 and seasonal softness in interstate/JV assets .
Northeast volume dip: Q2 Northeast volumes averaged 1.17 Bcf/d (down vs Q1) due to maintenance and timing of producer activity, though management expects flat entry-to-exit volumes for the year .
Behind-the-meter commercialization lag: Data center lateral proposals remain a pipeline of opportunities but have not yet commercialized; utilities are winning a disproportionate share, favoring utility-scale expansions DTM serves .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenues ($USD Millions)	$303.0*	$309.0*
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$108	$107
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$1.06	$1.04
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$280	$277
EBITDA Margin %	69.64%*	70.55%*
Net Income Margin %	35.64%*	34.63%*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Adjusted EBITDA:

Segment	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Pipeline ($USD Millions)	$197	$194
Gathering ($USD Millions)	$83	$83

KPIs:

KPI	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Haynesville Throughput (Bcf/d)	—	—	1.74
Haynesville Throughput YoY Change (%)	+16%	—	—
Northeast Throughput (Bcf/d)	1.43	1.30	1.17
Dividend per Share ($)	—	$0.82	$0.82

Operational notes:

Pipeline segment QoQ decline driven by Guardian rate step-down and seasonal interstate/JV effects; offsets from short-term revenues on LEAP and Stonewall .
Northeast volumes expected flat entry-to-exit for FY25, with Q4 seasonal ramp .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA ($B)	FY 2025	$1.095–$1.155	$1.095–$1.155	Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA ($B)	FY 2026 (early outlook)	$1.155–$1.225	$1.155–$1.225	Maintained
Capital Expenditures – Growth ($MM)	FY 2025	$400–$460	$400–$460	Maintained
Capital Expenditures – Maintenance ($MM)	FY 2025	$70–$90	$70–$90	Maintained
Committed Capital ($MM)	2025–2026 aggregate	—	~$615 total ($385 in 2025, $230 in 2026)	Raised (vs Q1)
Dividend per Share ($)	Q2 2025	$0.82	$0.82	Maintained

Project-specific investment parameters:

Guardian “G3” expansion: $345–$375MM; 5–6x build multiple; ISD Q4 2028; 20-year negotiated-rate contract .
Interstate modernization Phase 1: $130–$150MM; ISD 2H 2027; recovery in next rate case .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4’24 & Q1’25)	Current Period (Q2’25)	Trend
LNG connectivity & demand	Raised 2025 guide; backlog advancing; foundational assets serving Gulf Coast corridor	Forecast +16 Bcf/d LNG feed gas demand by 2035; expanding delivery connectivity by 1.25 Bcf/d (majority to Woodside; residual to Cameron)	Strengthening
AI/data center power demand	Announced new utility-scale power agreements; integration of new interstate assets	PJM capacity auction $329/MW-day (+22% YoY); utilities winning large share; AES lateral and Guardian expansion tied to power demand	Accelerating utility-led
Regulatory environment	N/A	Streamlined approvals emerging; “breath of fresh air” with administration change; constructive FERC dialogue	Improving
Haynesville activity	LEAP expansion program progressing	Record 1.74 Bcf/d throughput; privates ramp faster; publics cautious but expected to follow physical demand/pricing in 2026–2027	Inflecting up
Balance sheet/ratings	Dividend increased; strategic flexibility	Achieved investment grade from all three agencies, lowering cost of capital	Strengthened

Management Commentary

“We’ve reached FID on approximately $600 million of new organic growth projects… ~90% within our growing pipeline segment” (David Slater) .
“The PJM auction cleared at over $329 per megawatt day… highest price ever recorded… clear signal of significant power demand growth” (David Slater) .
“In the second quarter, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $277 million… pipeline results were $3 million lower… driven by a planned rate step-down on Guardian… offset by short-term revenues on LEAP and Stonewall” (Jeff Jewell) .
“We were upgraded to investment grade by both Moody’s and S&P… solidifying DT Midstream as a full investment grade entity” (Jeff Jewell) .
“The change of administration has been a breath of fresh air… reducing friction in large-scale infrastructure investments” (David Slater) .

Q&A Highlights

New York/Millennium: Strong power demand, plants running at high load factors; positive regulatory shift is gating item for expansions (Jeremy Tonet; David Slater) .
Haynesville producers: Privates ramping quickly; publics expected to respond to physical demand/pricing signals in 2026–2027 (Jeremy Tonet; David Slater) .
Data center laterals: Utilities winning a large share; multiple behind-the-meter proposals pending; AES lateral and Guardian expansion serve utility-scale demand (Michael Blum; David Slater) .
Guardian “G3” sourcing: Paths via Midwestern and Vector to Gillis/Joliet hubs; storage-backed pathways to Wisconsin utilities (Theresa Chen; David Slater) .
LEAP connectivity: Expanding LNG header connectivity by 1.25 Bcf/d (1 Bcf/d to Woodside; residual to Cameron); positioned for continued ramp (Theresa Chen; David Slater) .
Modernization economics: Modernization expected to grow EBITDA on regulated assets; light regulatory touch; rate adjustments when facilities go in-service (Keith Stanley; David Slater) .
Backlog de-risking: ~50% of $2.3B backlog FID’d six months into the plan; annual refresh expected at year-end (John Mackay; David Slater) .
M&A appetite: Bolt-ons must compete with robust organic set; maintain investment grade; use balance sheet dry powder prudently (Manav Gupta; David Slater) .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 Wall Street consensus (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) via S&P Global was not available in our feed for direct comparison. Management characterized Q2 pipeline softness as anticipated (Guardian step-down, seasonality), with offsets from short-term LNG-related revenues .
Forward consensus (S&P Global) for upcoming quarters:

Metric	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)	1.045	1.148	1.121	1.110
Revenue Consensus Mean ($MM)	306.9	322.2	330.5	330.4
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($MM)	282.5	295.7	302.4	301.3
Free Cash Flow Consensus Mean ($MM)	81.8	91.4	113.0	112.0
Target Price Consensus Mean ($)	118.0	118.0	118.0	118.0

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications: With Q3 expected roughly flat vs Q2 and a Q4 ramp (seasonality, producer timing), estimate revisions may hinge on the pace of Haynesville activity and timing of power-demand projects and LNG connectivity flows .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution track record: Strong Q2 operational performance and reaffirmed guidance despite planned tariff step-down and seasonality; de-risking evidenced by ~50% of the $2.3B backlog FID’d .
Structural tailwinds: Power demand acceleration in PJM/MISO (record capacity auction prices) and LNG ramp underpin multi-year pipeline growth visibility .
Credit upgrade: Full investment-grade status improves financing flexibility and lowers capital costs; supports disciplined capital allocation and dividend growth .
Near-term cadence: Expect Q3 flat vs Q2 and Q4 ramp; monitor Guardian tariff step-down effects and seasonal interstate/JV contribution recovery .
Growth projects: Guardian “G3” (210 MMcf/d, 20-year contract) and modernization Phase 1 add regulated earnings power; additional modernization phases likely through forthcoming rate cases .
Haynesville momentum: Record throughput (+16% YoY); privates leading volume recovery, publics expected to follow as physical demand/pricing firm into 2026–2027 .
Positioning for LNG: Expanded LEAP delivery connectivity (+1.25 Bcf/d) should capture rising feedgas demand; competitive advantage from in-ground assets with superior interconnectivity .

Additional data and sources:

Q2 2025 press release and 8-K: net income $107M, EPS $1.04, Adjusted EBITDA $277M; dividend $0.82/share; guidance reaffirmed .
Segment EBITDA and operational drivers: pipeline $194M, gathering $83M; Guardian rate step-down and seasonality; short-term LEAP/Stonewall offsets .
Volumes: Haynesville 1.74 Bcf/d (record); Northeast 1.17 Bcf/d; Q4 ramp expected in Northeast .

DT Midstream, Inc. (DTM)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary