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DT Midstream, Inc. (DTM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered EPS of $1.13 and net income of $115M, with Adjusted EBITDA of $288M; management raised 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.115–$1.145B and lifted DCF guidance to $800–$830M .
  • EPS and revenue exceeded S&P Global consensus: EPS beat by ~$0.09 (+8%), revenue beat by ~$$7.1M (+2%) in Q3; Q2 also beat, while Q1 had a slight EPS miss but revenue beat* (see Estimates Context).
  • Operational catalysts: record Haynesville throughput (+35% YoY) and LEAP Phase 4 placed in service early and on budget; FID on a larger Guardian “G3” expansion totaling ~537 MMcf/d, anchored by five investment-grade utilities .
  • Dividend of $0.82 per share declared (payable Jan 15, 2026; record Dec 15, 2025); management reiterates 5–7% dividend growth aligned with long-term EBITDA growth .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Raised 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance (midpoint to ~$1.13B) and narrowed the range; reaffirmed 2026 early outlook, supported by strong YTD execution .
    • Commercial wins: FID on upsized Guardian expansion (~537 MMcf/d, 40% capacity increase, 20-year contracts with five IG utilities) and positive upstream linkages via Vector/Midwestern/NEXUS .
    • Operational execution: “LEAP Phase 4 expansion facilities were placed into service early and on budget,” with record Haynesville volumes (+35% YoY) .
    • Quote: “We are very pleased with how the year is continuing to progress and are confident in our increased guidance for 2025… and long-term organic growth target of 5 to 7%” .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Louisiana CCS project permit timeline remains uncertain despite being under formal review; project stays pre-FID pending clarity from the reorganized state department .
    • Northeast volumes were softer in Q3 due to maintenance/timing, ramping into Q4 with September averaging 1.17 Bcf/d; a reminder of regional seasonality and producer timing .
    • Millennium expansion progress remains patient amid NY regulatory complexity; management emphasizes disciplined FID gating despite strong demand signals .
    • Quote: “Our project remains under formal technical review… at this point the permit timeline is too uncertain to provide an updated date when we expect to reach FID” .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenues ($USD)$303.0M*$309.0M*$314.0M*
Net Income ($USD)$108.0M $107.0M $115.0M
Diluted EPS ($USD)$1.06 $1.04 $1.13
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)$280.0M $277.0M $288.0M
Distributable Cash Flow ($USD)$250.0M $157.0M $262.0M

Note: * Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Consensus vs Actual (S&P Global):

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)1.0775*0.9775*1.0449*
Primary EPS Actual ($)1.06 1.04 1.13
EPS Surprise ($ / %)-$0.02 / -1.6%*+$0.06 / +6.4%*+$0.09 / +8.1%*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)$285.0M*$298.1M*$306.9M*
Revenue Actual ($USD)$303.0M*$309.0M*$314.0M*
Revenue Surprise ($ / %)+$18.0M / +6.3%*+$10.9M / +3.7%*+$7.1M / +2.3%*
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($USD)$280.5M*$275.2M*$282.5M*
Adjusted EBITDA Actual ($USD)$280.0M $277.0M $288.0M

Note: * Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Adjusted EBITDA

Segment ($USD)Q2 2025Q3 2025
Pipeline$194.0M $195.0M
Gathering$83.0M $93.0M

KPIs and Operating Drivers

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Haynesville Throughput (bcf/d)1.67 1.74 2.04; +35% YoY
Northeast Throughput (bcf/d)1.30 1.17 1.09 avg; Sep-25 1.17; on track for Q4 in line with Q1
Dividend per Share (declared)$0.82 $0.82 $0.82; payable Jan 15, 2026; record Dec 15, 2025

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2025$1,095–$1,155M $1,115–$1,145M Raised (midpoint +$20M)
Operating Earnings ($)FY 2025$415–$455M $425–$455M Raised (low end)
Operating EPS ($)FY 2025$4.05–$4.45 $4.15–$4.45 Raised (low end)
Distributable Cash Flow ($)FY 2025$740–$800M $800–$830M Raised
Capital Expenditures ($)FY 2025$470–$550M $445–$485M Lowered
Growth Capex ($)FY 2025$400–$460M $385–$415M Lowered
Maintenance Capex ($)FY 2025$70–$90M $60–$70M Lowered
Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2026 (early outlook)$1,155–$1,225M $1,155–$1,225M Maintained
Dividend per ShareQuarterly$0.82 $0.82 (declared Q3) Maintained; plan 5–7% growth

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
AI/data center-driven power demandPJM/MISO demand growth, utilities securing grid connections; multiple site proposals; behind-the-meter laterals under discussion Demand ramp in Louisiana; preference for front-of-meter but open to behind-the-meter; utilities winning significant share Strengthening utility-led, selective BtM
LNG market momentumWoodside FID and LEAP expansions; expanding delivery connectivity into LNG headers LEAP Phase 4 in-service early; positioning with Driftwood and Cameron expansions; record Haynesville throughput Accelerating execution
Regulatory/permittingConstructive federal environment; FERC engagement; streamlining approvals; NY recognition of supply needs (Millennium) Senate confirmation of FERC members; disciplined approach to Millennium amid NY complexity Incrementally constructive, cautious in NY
Midwest modernization & demandGuardian rate step-down; Phase 1 modernization FID; PJM auction pricing supports demand Upsized Guardian G3 expansion (537 MMcf/d); modernization to roll through rate cases; Vector expansion discussed (400 MMcf/d) Expanding projects; rate recovery
Balance sheet/dividendsAchieved investment grade by all three agencies; 5–7% dividend growth Dividend reiterated; year-end leverage expected ~3.1x (on-balance) / ~3.8x proportional Stable, improving leverage

Management Commentary

  • Strategic posture: “We are very pleased with how the year is continuing to progress and are confident in our increased guidance for 2025… and long-term organic growth target of 5 to 7%” .
  • Guardian expansion: “This upsize expansion increases the total capacity of Guardian by approximately 537 MMcf/d… anchored by five investment grade utilities under 20-year negotiated rate contracts” .
  • Execution: “Our LEAP Phase 4 expansion facilities were placed into service early and on budget, increasing the capacity from 1.9 to 2.1 BCF per day” .
  • Dividend approach: “We remain committed to grow the dividend 5% to 7% per year in line with our long-term adjusted EBITDA growth” .
  • Regulatory tone: “The recent Senate confirmation of two new FERC members was an encouraging sign… increased confidence in a constructive permitting process” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Data center and industrial load in Louisiana: DTM is pursuing gas-to-power demand with strong positioning; open to behind-the-meter if structured with strong counterparties .
  • Haynesville trajectory: Volumes ramped faster than expected; Q4 volumes expected similar to Q3; outpacing basin due to quality of underlying customer resource .
  • Midwest supply corridors: Vector testing market for ~400 MMcf/d expansion to Chicago; potential feeder to Guardian/Midwestern; binding open season near-term .
  • Capex cadence: 2025 capex lowered largely on efficiency with some timing; maintenance capex run-rate expected flat, update at year-end .
  • Millennium expansions: Actively working R2R/Pro with disciplined FID gating given NY complexities; patient pace with positive demand signals .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus:
    • EPS: $1.13 actual vs $1.0449 estimate → beat +$0.09 (+8.1%)* .
    • Revenue: $314.0M actual vs $306.9M estimate → beat +$7.1M (+2.3%)*.
    • Adjusted EBITDA: $288.0M actual vs $282.5M estimate → beat +$5.5M (+2.0%)* .
  • Prior quarters:
    • Q2 2025 EPS/Revenue beats; Q1 2025 slight EPS miss but revenue beat*.
  • Note: Company reports Adjusted EBITDA; consensus “EBITDA” definitions may differ (GAAP vs adjusted). Investors should align Street definition to company non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA when benchmarking .
  • Expect estimate revisions upward for FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA, Operating EPS, and DCF following raised guidance; segment contributions and Haynesville throughput strength support trajectory .

Note: * Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Guidance raise with narrowed ranges and strong Q3 execution signals momentum; dividend supported by improved DCF and lower capex .
  • Structural demand catalysts: data center and industrial loads in PJM/MISO and LNG ramp in Gulf Coast; DTM’s connectivity and pipeline mix are well positioned .
  • Guardian “G3” upsize and prospective Vector expansion build a Chicago hub strategy; modernization investments expected to be rate-recovered, enhancing pipeline EBITDA .
  • Operational KPIs (Haynesville throughput, LEAP Phase 4 early in-service) underpin Gathering EBITDA growth; watch Q4 volumes to confirm sustained trajectory .
  • CCS project remains a longer-dated option pending permit timeline clarity; near-term capital focused on higher-return pipeline expansions .
  • Balance sheet remains strong (investment grade; year-end leverage ~3.1x on-balance / ~3.8x proportional), supporting self-funded growth and dividend strategy .
  • Near-term trading: emphasize the guidance raise and visible project backlog FIDs (~$1.6B of ~$2.3B now sanctioned), plus Street EPS/revenue beats as catalysts for sentiment .

Sources

  • Q3 2025 earnings press release and 8-K exhibits: net income/EPS/Adjusted EBITDA, dividend, non-GAAP reconciliations, guidance updates, segment data .
  • Q3 2025 earnings call transcript: strategic commentary, operational updates, Q&A detail .
  • Other Q3 press releases: Guardian expansion open season awards ; call schedule .
  • Prior quarters Q1/Q2 2025 press releases and 8-Ks: results, guidance context, segment data .

Note: S&P Global consensus estimates used for EPS, revenue, and EBITDA comparisons; actuals vs consensus marked with asterisks where applicable.