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Dogwood Therapeutics, Inc. (DWTX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 printed a materially wider per-share loss: EPS of $-6.29 vs Wall Street consensus of $-1.42, a significant miss driven by nonrecurring transaction costs ($3.9M) and higher R&D tied to trial activity; revenue remained $0.00 * .
  • Operating expenses surged YoY (Total OpEx $7.54M vs $1.14M), reflecting the Pharmagesic/Wex combination costs and clinical ramp; net loss attributable to common stockholders was $-8.24M vs $-1.10M in Q4 2023 .
  • Balance sheet and runway improved post-quarter via debt-to-equity conversion ($19.5M) and a $4.8M equity raise; cash was $14.85M at 12/31/24 with guided runway through Q1 2026 .
  • Pipeline execution advanced: dosing commenced in Halneuron Phase 2b CINP; interim readout expected Q4 2025—key upcoming catalyst for the stock .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Initiated patient dosing in Halneuron Phase 2b CINP; interim data targeted for Q4 2025. “We have made considerable progress in advancing our flagship Halneuron® CINP Phase 2b study, with interim data expected by year end.” — Greg Duncan, CEO .
  • Strengthened balance sheet: largest shareholder converted $19.5M of debt to equity; combined with a $4.8M raise, management now guides runway through Q1 2026 .
  • Strategic clarity across programs: IMC-2 exploring external funding/partnership for Phase 2b; IMC-1 targeting Phase 3 via partnerships with an update planned in Q2 .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS significantly missed consensus due to $3.9M nonrecurring transaction costs and higher R&D, widening net loss per share to $-6.29 from $-1.43 YoY and $-2.05 QoQ *.
  • Elevated OpEx: Total OpEx rose to $7.54M vs $1.14M YoY, with R&D +$2.0M QoQ tied to trial initiation and G&A +$4.4M YoY on combination-related fees .
  • Listing standards pressure: Nasdaq equity deficiency notice (Nov 2024) despite earlier minimum bid compliance; management intends to submit a remediation plan .

Financial Results

P&L vs Prior Periods

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD)$0 $0 $0
Research & Development ($USD)$298,320 $535,162 $2,315,950
General & Administrative ($USD)$839,806 $1,766,010 $5,226,202
Total Operating Expenses ($USD)$1,138,126 $2,301,172 $7,542,152
Loss from Operations ($USD)$(1,138,126) $(2,301,172) $(7,542,152)
Net Loss ($USD)$(1,103,173) $(2,280,684) $(7,727,872)
Net Loss Attributable to Common ($USD)$(1,103,173) $(2,280,684) $(8,241,977)
EPS (basic & diluted) ($)$(1.43) $(2.05) $(6.29)
Weighted Avg Shares770,317 1,110,317 1,310,474

Notes: Q4 2024 includes $514,105 accrual of paid-in-kind dividends on Series A preferred, impacting common stockholders’ loss .

Q4 2024 vs Consensus

MetricActualConsensusDelta
Revenue ($USD)$0 $0*In line*
EPS ($)$(6.29) $(1.415)*Miss: $(4.88)*
EBITDA ($USD)$(7,539,107)*N/AN/A

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Expense Breakdown Detail

Expense LineQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Clinical trials (driver of R&D)N/AN/A+$1.1M QoQ contribution
Drug development & manufacturingN/AN/A+$0.6M QoQ contribution
Salaries & personnel (R&D)N/AN/A+$0.3M QoQ contribution
Nonrecurring transaction costs (G&A)N/AN/A$3.9M
Salaries & personnel (G&A)N/AN/A+$0.5M YoY

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ4 2023Q4 2024
Cash ($USD)$3,316,946 $14,847,949
Total Assets ($USD)$4,165,442 $94,308,246
Total Liabilities ($USD)$358,548 $30,027,223
Stockholders’ Equity ($USD)$3,806,894 $(10,124,339)
Guided Operational RunwayInto Q1 2025 (pre-combination context) Through Q1 2026

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash runwayOperating horizonCash + $16.5M loan not sufficient for ≥12 months without additional $3.0M funding (as of Q3) Runway through Q1 2026 (post capital raise and debt-to-equity conversion) Raised
Halneuron® CINP Phase 2b InterimTiming2H 2025 Q4 2025 Narrowed window
IMC-2 (Long-COVID) next milestoneProgram statusTopline Phase 2a data mid-Nov 2024 Exploring external funding/partnership to initiate Phase 2b Shift to financing/partnering
IMC-1 (Fibromyalgia)Program pathExploring partnerships to execute FDA-agreed Phase 3 Exploring partnerships; update planned Q2 this year Maintained with timing detail

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was filed; themes reflect management’s press releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Pipeline execution (Halneuron, IMC-1, IMC-2)Q2: IMC-2 Phase 2a enrollment complete; Q3: combination expanded pipeline; Halneuron Phase 2b interim 2H 2025 Dosing commenced in Halneuron Phase 2b; interim in Q4 2025; IMC-2 advancing via funding/partner path; IMC-1 Phase 3 partnering update planned Q2 Positive execution; tighter timelines
Financing/liquidityQ2: Raised $1.7M; operating runway into Q1 2025 Debt-to-equity conversion ($19.5M) + $4.8M raise; runway through Q1 2026 Strengthened
Nasdaq compliance / listingQ3: Regained minimum bid compliance (Oct 2024) Equity deficiency notice (Nov 2024) with remediation plan forthcoming Mixed—compliance regained, equity metric flagged
R&D spend trajectoryQ3: R&D modest QoQ increase R&D step-up QoQ with trial initiation (+$1.1M clinical costs) Up with program ramp
Transaction/Integration costsQ3: Higher legal/pro fees related to combination $3.9M nonrecurring transaction costs in G&A One-off spike

Management Commentary

  • “We have made considerable progress in advancing our flagship Halneuron® CINP Phase 2b study, with interim data expected by year end.” — Greg Duncan, CEO .
  • “We have also significantly improved our balance sheet and liquidity… improving our cash position in a recent capital raise along with the agreement of our largest shareholder to exchange all their outstanding loan amounts for equity.” — Greg Duncan, CEO .
  • “We believe this substantial organizational progress, in the context of future milestones, positions Dogwood as a more attractive investment opportunity moving forward.” — Greg Duncan, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • No earnings call transcript was filed for Q4 2024; Q&A highlights are unavailable in our document set.

Estimates Context

  • EPS: Actual Q4 2024 EPS of $-6.29 vs consensus $-1.415 — significant miss, primarily explained by $3.9M nonrecurring transaction costs and higher R&D tied to trial initiation *.
  • Revenue: Actual $0 vs consensus $0 — in line *.
  • Trend vs prior quarters (EPS):
MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
EPS Actual ($)$(0.05) $(2.05) $(6.29)
EPS Consensus ($)$(1.58)*$(1.18)*$(1.42)*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications: Near-term consensus likely needs to reflect the one-time $3.9M combination costs rolling off and higher ongoing R&D pace; normalized loss trajectory should improve absent transaction charges, but clinical execution timing (Halneuron Phase 2b) will drive operating spend cadence .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Material EPS miss was driven by identifiable one-time and strategic investment factors (transaction costs, clinical ramp), not revenue shortfall; revenue remains $0 as expected for a development-stage biotech *.
  • Liquidity profile improved meaningfully through $19.5M debt-to-equity conversion and $4.8M equity financing, extending runway into Q1 2026 — reducing near-term financing overhang .
  • Halneuron Phase 2b CINP dosing commencement and Q4 2025 interim readout are the dominant catalysts; outcomes will shape medium-term valuation and partnering options .
  • Watch OpEx normalization in 2025 as nonrecurring $3.9M combination costs fade; R&D should remain elevated while Phase 2b progresses .
  • Listing compliance remains a monitoring item: minimum bid regained (Oct 2024), but stockholders’ equity deficiency notice (Nov 2024) requires successful remediation .
  • For trading, setup skews toward binary clinical readouts; improved runway lowers financing risk, but results-driven volatility likely around interim data windows .
  • Medium-term thesis hinges on Halneuron’s clinical differentiation in CINP and the ability to secure partnerships for IMC-1/IMC-2 to share development risk and capital needs .

S&P Global disclaimer: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.