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    DEXCOM (DXCM)

    Q4 2023 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$127.05Last close (Feb 8, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$123.00Open (Feb 9, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-4.05(-3.19%)
    • Strong Competitive Advantages and Continuous Innovation: DexCom's unparalleled sensor performance, ability to connect up to three devices simultaneously, and ongoing investments in technology and software create significant competitive moats, positioning the company strongly against potential competitors.
    • Expansion into Large New Markets with Stelo: The upcoming launch of Stelo, a CGM designed specifically for people with type 2 diabetes not on insulin, represents a significant growth opportunity. DexCom anticipates Stelo to add approximately 1% to revenue growth in 2024 and become a substantial part of the business over time.
    • Margin Improvement through Product Advancements and Operational Efficiency: The development of a 15-day wear sensor and strategic investments in automated manufacturing facilities are expected to enhance gross and operating margins, providing significant long-term financial benefits.
    • Potential increased competition in the Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) market could impact DexCom's market share and pricing power, as acknowledged by management when discussing new market entrants.
    • Uncertainty around the approval timing of the 15-day sensor may delay anticipated improvements in operating margins and limit growth opportunities, since the product is still undergoing evaluation and approval processes.
    • The launch of Stelo as a cash-pay product targeting non-insulin users involves significant investments with uncertain returns, which may pressure margins without a clear path to profitability in this segment.
    1. Stelo Product Launch
      Q: How confident are you about Stelo's launch and its potential?
      A: The company expects Stelo to add approximately 100 basis points to growth in '24, equating to about $40 million in six months. While emphasizing that this year's launch is about learning, they are confident that Stelo can become a very large part of the business over time. Investments in Stelo will impact operating margins, but they are committed to expanding margins while investing carefully.

    2. Competition and Competitive Moats
      Q: How defensible is DexCom's share against new competition?
      A: DexCom believes its competitive moats are strong due to unparalleled sensor performance, superior connectivity features—like connecting up to three devices simultaneously—and significant investments in fully automated factories. They continue to innovate and invest to stay ahead, confident in their position but never comfortable.

    3. Operating Margins and 15-day Sensor
      Q: What's the timing for 15-day sensor approval and impact on margins?
      A: Clinical testing is ongoing for fundamental science changes to achieve a reliable 15-day sensor, with plans to run a clinical study and file for approval. The 15-day sensor offers significant opportunities to improve gross and operating margins and grow the business profitably in areas that may have been challenging with the 10-day product.

    4. International Growth and Challenges
      Q: How is international growth performing compared to the U.S.?
      A: International growth was affected by transitioning the non-CGM business and going direct in Japan, leading to lower growth in Q4. Core markets like the UK and Germany continue to grow consistently. They expect the international business to grow faster than the U.S. over the coming years and eventually make up a larger percentage of revenue.

    5. Gross Margin Expectations
      Q: When will G7 start improving gross margins?
      A: Currently, G7 costs more to produce than G6, but they expect this to flip during the year as the user base transitions and cost efficiencies are realized. By exiting 2024 and entering 2025, G7 should be lower in cost than G6, positively impacting gross margins.

    6. Sales Force Expansion
      Q: What's the plan for expanding the sales force in primary care?
      A: The company is expanding its sales force to increase coverage in primary care, hiring over the first quarter with the full impact from Q2 onward. Investments are being made carefully to continue improving profitability while expanding, with new hires expected to contribute to growth in Basal coverage and future products like Stelo.

    7. Non-insulin User Market Potential
      Q: How will Stelo progress towards reimbursement in the non-insulin market?
      A: Stelo will launch as a cash pay product, accumulating data to build a case for traditional reimbursement over time. The goal is to demonstrate better outcomes and cost savings, eventually seeking coverage from CMS and other payers.

    8. Type 2 Hypo Non-insulin Penetration
      Q: Why is penetration of the Type 2 hypo non-insulin indication slow?
      A: Penetration is slower due to the need for increased awareness among physicians and patients about qualification criteria and documentation requirements. The company is focused on educating the community, recognizing it as a significant opportunity that will contribute meaningfully over time.

    9. DexCom ONE Progress
      Q: What's the status of DexCom ONE in international markets?
      A: DexCom ONE accounted for about a quarter of new patient starts internationally in 2023, slightly below the expected one-third. With the launch on the G7 form factor in multiple countries, they expect it to be a bigger contributor in 2024.

    10. Basal Adoption Rates
      Q: How is Basal insulin CGM adoption impacting growth?
      A: Basal insulin adoption is contributing to growth, with penetration rates around 9% to 10% per annum in the back half of 2023. For 2024, they anticipate about an 8% penetration rate, which is ahead of long-range plans and presents opportunities for outperformance.

    Research analysts covering DEXCOM.