Eni - Q1 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Eni's 2024 first quarter results conference call hosted by Mr. Francesco Gattei, Chief Financial Officer. For the duration of the call, you'll be in listen-only mode. However, at the end of the call, you will have the opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. I'm now handing over to your host to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

Thank you. Good afternoon and welcome to Eni quarter one 2024 results conference call. Our first quarter results are excellent. We have reported pro forma EBIT of EUR 4.1 billion and cash flow from operations of EUR 3.9 billion. Production growth in our upstream of 5% and excellent contribution from our transition business of Enilive and Plenitude meant we substantially resisted the overall deterioration in this scenario. The continued excellent cash conversion and CapEx discipline also meant that balanced gearing remained comfortably within our range, despite completing on Neptune and the 2023 share buyback program in this quarter. I will analyze our results in more detail shortly, but these slides also emphasize how busy we continue to be in actions to invest to upgrade and transform our company. I want to highlight a few items in the year to date because they provide helpful context for our strategic progress.

In January, we completed the purchase of Neptune. The transaction is highly synergistic, and it has already delivered very material value to Eni, with significant upside in Indonesia and new optionality in U.K., as we will see later. With the Neptune deal following on from Chalmette and Novamont last year, we have concluded the phase of inorganic positioning in new platform for growth, and we enter into a different cycle characterized by the valorization of these new business lines and by the dilution of exploration discovery. As a first step in this new phase, in March, we completed the EUR 600 million equity investment by Energy Infrastructure Partners into Plenitude. This is an important proof point for our satellite strategy: introducing aligned capital from a valuable partner, supporting the future growth of the business, and confirming the value created. At the same time, we are organically expanding our growth opportunities.

In March, we announced the Calao Discovery offshore Ivory Coast. This is another major, major high equity discovery with potential resources of between 1 billion-1.5 billion of oil equivalent. It follows our discovery of Baleine in Côte in 2022 and the discovery of over 16 billion barrels of oil equivalent over the past 15 years, translating to organic production growth plus over $10 billion of cash via the dual exploration actions over the past 10 years. We strongly believe in value created via the drill bit, and we continue to reinforce our technical competencies paired with the most advanced technological solution. In this regard, in January, we began the construction of HPC6 supercomputer that will raise Eni back to the top five computing systems in the world, with a computing power of over 600 petaflops, nine times bigger than our current one.

Finally, we have just announced the agreement to combine our UK E&P activities with those of Ithaca Energy, creating a new satellite inside the Eni universe. We believe that the hydrocarbon potential of the UKCS remains relevant, and we have immediately leveraged on our enhanced UK portfolio after the acquisition of Neptune to further reinforce our long-term positioning in this country. It is a well-understood model based on complementary portfolio and technical capabilities, and one successfully followed at Vår and Azule, where the right combination generates significant top-line operating financial and fiscal synergies. Just before going into the first quarter numbers in more detail, here is a recap of the key industrial message from our capital market update in March.

We now have a complementary portfolio of high-quality businesses that align with the transition and the trilemma, ones that integrate across the company, that leverage Eni's strength in technology focus and early mover status, and which, crucially, together offer the prospect of sustained growth. We see 13% CAGR in cash flow from operations per share in a flat scenario, among the highest in our peer group, and a progressive diversification and improved quality in our sources of cash. Our strategy will make Eni a larger and more profitable company at the end of our current plan and beyond. Our distinctive industrial approach is supported by a robust financial framework that balances the use of cash flow for shareholder returns with reinvestment for growth and the balance sheet.

Our satellite model helps to allocate line capital allocation and provide investors with visibility on the performance and valuation of activity with very different financial profiles. Ultimately, transition will only be real if it creates material and sustainable returns and profitable business. Moving to the quarter, the next three slides provide analysis of today's results. We recorded an excellent quarter for production with impact of the Neptune acquisition, the ramp-up of Ivory Coast and Norway, and good performance in Libya. This production performance helps to mitigate the weaker gas price. GGP results are down year-on-year versus an exceptional quarter for trading and optimization in the first quarter 2023, and also down versus the last quarter of 2023, which saw the benefit of the arbitration procedure. However, the Q1 result is in line with our expectation given seasonal strength but low market volatility.

You will have seen we have resegmented Enilive and Plenitude together to highlight their importance, together as material growth business for Eni in the changing energy market. An important theme of this quarter is growth. I mentioned hydrocarbon production up 5% year-on-year, but in these transition businesses, it is really significant: bio throughputs have more than doubled, renewable energy generation is up 12%, and quarter-end capacity up 30% year-on-year, while charging points are up 33%. We are also progressing the regulatory framework for our CCS program. Our more traditional downstream businesses are now grouped together, with refining showing improved utilization and capturing the quarter-over-quarter improvement in the refining margins. Versalis was again loss-making, albeit an improvement over the last quarter of the quarter number four of last year.

Recall, we set out our plans at the Capital Markets Day in March to restructure and transform our chemical operation, and you should expect more on this as we go through the year. We have demonstrated good cash conversion once again, and this will drive a higher distribution as we indicated it would be in March. With a strong first-quarter delivery and the prospect of improved macro conditions versus the plan, we are raising our guidance for cash flow from operation. We are now seeing cash flow from operation for the full year in excess of EUR 14 billion. Incidentally, marking to market based on a snapshot of the market this week would generate even a higher figure. As we set out in March, our distribution commitment is to share up to 60% of additional cash flow above plan with our investor via the buyback.

Therefore, we are raising the 2024 buyback by 45% to EUR 1.6 billion from EUR 1.1 billion, with the continuing commitment to revisit in each of the remaining quarters to update on expected financial performance and the associated distribution. Our aim is that, at a minimum, we deliver the underlying business performance we target and ensure we capture the available upside from this scenario. Our shareholder meeting on 15 May will consider the proposal to authorize our new buyback program up to a maximum of EUR 3.5 billion. Our normal practice will be to begin repurchases shortly after this authorization. If authorized, our 2024 dividend on EUR 1 per share paid quarterly will start in September. Our CapEx in the first quarter of EUR 2 billion was in line with a full-year figure of around EUR 9 billion, taking into account this period is historically lighter on spending.

Similarly, we confirm that our major strategic inorganic acquisition has been completed, and we are making good progress in our target of a front-end loaded net EUR 8 billion cash in over the four-year plan period, which will result in net capex of EUR 7 billion-EUR 8 billion in 2024. In the annex, you will see also the bridge to net debt with leverage at 23% at the end of March, which remains well within our guided range despite the portfolio cash-out and the completion of the 2023 buyback.

Turning back to the proposed combination of our UK E&P operation with Ithaca, let's take a more detailed view. You are familiar with our use of satellite structure at Vår and Azule. In the upstream, we use the satellite structure to build scale, realize synergies, increase in near-field exploration development potential, and matching complementary cash flow profile and efficiently access capital market.

With Ithaca, we tick all of the boxes. With the addition of Neptune and now Ithaca, we are moving from a mature and quite marginal position in U.K. to a leading status in terms of production of over 100,000 barrels per day and resources. Quite clearly, the U.K. has its challenges, but we are confident we are now in a position to access considerable operating and cost synergy critical for business success in a mature basin, giving ourselves significant optionality and helping to provide additional supply while addressing emissions. Together with our existing activity in CCS, which were also boosted with the Neptune purchase and our participation in the giant Dogger Bank wind farm development, we are establishing ourselves as a significant participant in the U.K. energy industry as it grows and decarbonizes. Reviewing our guidance versus MARS, we have increased confidence in upstream production.

Underlying profitability at GGP, Enilive, and Plenitude are all confirmed. So, with a more positive scenario, we have raised 2024 guidance for both group pro forma EBIT and cash flow from operations in excess of EUR 14 billion each. With that in mind, we can also confirm our dividend guidance and raise the expected buyback for the year by 45% to EUR 1.6 billion, evidencing our commitment to share upside with our shareholder by means of a clear, attractive distribution policy. Finally, I can provide some guidance for Q2. We expect production to be lower sequentially, reflecting seasonal maintenance impact and any divestment we conclude. In line with typical seasonal pattern reflecting current trading environment, we expect the Q2 results from GGP to be lower than Q1.

For Plenitude, we expect a solid Q2 performance in retail, albeit with lower seasonal volume as well as a renewable contribution that continues to reflect recent capacity growth. We anticipate utilization rate in our conventional refineries to be down sequentially because of planned maintenance, while biorefinery availability is expected to remain steady at around 90%, with scope to capture higher seasonal demand in marketing. To conclude, we are very pleased with our progress at the outset of 2024, demonstrating evidence of delivering against all our key objectives, and we can see continued positive momentum across the remainder of this year. We are also pleased to be able to materially raise the shareholder distribution for the year while continuing to grow a larger and more profitable Eni. This concludes my review of the quarter. Along with Eni top management, I am ready to answer your questions.

Operator (participant)

This is the Chorus Call Conference Operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. We will pause for a moment as participants are joining the queue. The first question is from Josh Stone with UBS. Please go ahead.

Josh Stone (Head of European Energy)

Hi. Good afternoon, Francesco, and thanks for the presentation. Two questions, please. Firstly, your net debt was up sharply in the quarter, and you've given a helpful chart on that. Looking forward, clearly it will come down. You've got some disposals to get away, probably working capital releases. But question more about timing.

When do you expect to see the benefits of these things to come down? Will it be this year, later this year? Will it start to be next year? Just help us understand the progression of net debt. That'd be great. Thank you. Secondly, on Ithaca, thank you. Congratulations on agreeing the merger. We've got another satellite soon to go up into orbit. I guess the question is, at what point do we think you reach critical mass on these satellites? Acknowledging we've still got Plenitude, Enilive, many other potentially to come. Will you continue to be active in this strategy elsewhere in the portfolio? Are there other things you're looking at as potential satellites? Thank you.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

Okay. On the timing of the net debt reduction, clearly, this quarter is the quarter where we are summing up the two major elements of raising the net debt for the year.

These two major elements clearly are related to the acquisition of Neptune. That is, between the amount we cashed out and the debt acquired is around EUR 2.5 billion. On the other side, this quarter, as you have seen, is also seasonally and traditionally impacted by working capital effect. So these two elements together are in excess of 5 percentage points of impact. And clearly, by having disposal, having a progression in the timing of cash-in, we will be able to return to the range that we would like to be after a phase of, let's say, a number of acquisitions. Just to give you a flavor, in the last 15 months with the acquisition, as mentioned, of Neptune, the one of Chalmette, Novamont, and also some renewables, the overall amount that we have, let's say, spent, there was in excess of EUR 5 billion.

So that is around the 10% point of leverage. Now we are entering the following phase. The following phase is a phase of valorization, is a phase of dual exploration model application, and therefore, let's say, benefiting. And clearly, also, we'll collect additional sources from the tail asset that we are going to sell. So this is, I would say, a progress that you will see during the coming quarters, already starting from the second quarter and clearly speeding up during the rest of the year. This is something that is completely in line, and also we have good evidence of the start of the even at the start of this year of the quality of this portfolio that we are putting for valorization in the market. About Ithaca and the satellites, clearly, satellites has already proved to be material.

If you look at what was our position in Vår before in Norway, sorry, before the start of Vår. And even the situation or the position that we have both in Plenitude and in Enilive and in Angola, you see that is a materiality there is a strong growth. So the satellites help you to focus, to cash in, to fuel your growth, and that you collect more tools to use, as we did, for example, with Vår, to use this currency, if you are speaking about listed entities, eventually also for doing M&A opportunity or capturing M&A opportunity. So the materiality of the satellites is evident. We'll continue to grow in all these four. Clearly, Ithaca is adding to this list. We are thinking to a few other, but clearly, still early stage to speak around, to speak about.

But clearly, this is a model that will have still some additional bullet to be issued.

Josh Stone (Head of European Energy)

Got it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Giacomo Romeo with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Giacomo Romeo (Energy Analyst)

Yes. Thank you. The first question is on GGP. What you report is based about 40% of the target you have for the year. At the time of the CMD, you clearly said that the guidance was based on market conditions that you were seeing back then. Just wondering, it seems that these conditions have somewhat improved, not just the flat price, but also in general volatility around spreads. Can you confirm that you're actually seeing these improvements? And do you expect PSV to be at a healthy premium during the summer on the back of the trend of Italian gas storage? The second question is still relatively close to GGP.

Just thinking about what we heard from the Egyptian government about the outlook of importing LNG this summer, 8-10 cargoes, just wondering what this means in your mind for the overall outlook for LNG exports out of Egypt for the year.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

I will leave the answers to Cristian Signoretto, head of GGP.

Cristian Signoretto (Head of GGP)

Yeah. So thanks for the question. So when it comes to the target, so yeah, in the first quarter, we have realized 40% of the base case target that we have set during the capital market update. I think this is a bit usual in the sense that usually, for a seasonal reason, I mean, the Q1 is always the strongest quarter of GGP also in the past. So I'd say in terms of volatility, well, the first quarter actually was pretty much in line with what we expected during the capital market update.

So that means that we are still looking forward for the next nine months to see more volatility and more opportunities to be spread and captured in the market. And also, the guidance, the upper part of the guidance is also linked to some renegotiations that we have ongoing. And so in the next nine months, we will be trying to close them down and get the upsides that we were looking for. When it comes to Egypt, yeah, clearly, the first quarter of this year, we have seen a steep reduction of export capacity from Egypt due to the supply and demand imbalance and the Middle East situation. This summer, the country expects to bring LNG from outside. We think that the next winter season could be another window of opportunity for export some LNG cargoes. Clearly, not many vis-à-vis the past.

But given the strong seasonal demand and supply balance of Egypt, we still think that there is a window of opportunity for the next winter to be exporting some cargoes.

Giacomo Romeo (Energy Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Matt Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Matt Smith (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hi there. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. A couple from me. I think that the first one, going back to sort of net debt and also timing, I guess there's thank you for the gross CapEx guidance for the year. And I suppose, like you've alluded to, there's a bit of a gap that still remains between the net CapEx guidance and the gross CapEx guidance for 2024. So I suppose my question is, how confident are you on delivering these disposal proceeds in the year?

I suppose the question is really, how important is completing that timing to you in terms of hitting the net CapEx guidance in 2024 versus the wider four-year plan against a backdrop of, I'm sure, looking to maximize value? A question on confidence over timing on the disposals. The second question back to GGP, but less on volatility, more so your opinions on the fundamentals of the European gas market. I think some investors have been surprised by how well prices have held up in Europe. Just your reflections and also if you had any thoughts on how European gas demand has evolved, that might be useful, please.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

In terms of the confidence of the deals, of the disposal, we are extremely confident. We are working with already in a number of dossiers that are in advanced stage.

We have already, let's say, we are in many cases or in few cases already substantially in final discussions. And therefore, we are very, very close. We are working on different, let's say, terms with other dossiers. But for us, in any case, everything is related to the proper value. So we are not, let's say, rushing, and we are forced to sell because we target a reduction specifically. We want to do good deals. I think that we proved in the past years to be extremely effective. And we were also extremely effective in, let's say, concluding the real closing, the actual closing of the deal after the announcement. And this also will be the case for the coming deals. About the situation of the European fundamental of gas, I'll give back the floor to Cristian.

Cristian Signoretto (Head of GGP)

Yeah. So thanks for the question. If you remember, I mean, during our capital market update, we have commented about the fact that we see still a very finely balanced market for Europe and actually for the world in the next at least 12-18 months. And this actually is the case because, I mean, we are seeing in Asia and especially in China a pickup in the demand. In the first three months, we have seen 17% of LNG growth in that area, in China.

And it's true that demand in Europe has not been very robust because of the weather. But if you look at the fundamentals, we are seeing some pickup in the industrial demand recovery. We have seen also countries like Egypt, as we said before, flipping from being exporter to being importer. And that actually gives another, let's say, stone into the balance of the LNG market.

Freeport is out. It is actually they have two trains out for maintenance. So let's say, a few million tons of LNG can change really can change the balance of the market. Again, we think that the summer will still be volatile because of this situation. Clearly, also, the geopolitical situation can add on to that. We know also that there is uncertainty about the end of the Russian transit in Ukraine by the end of this year. So we feel that the next 12 months could be still interesting and volatile from a market perspective.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Alessandro Pozzi with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Alessandro Pozzi (Equity Analyst)

Good afternoon. Two questions from me. On Enilive, I noticed that the biorefining throughput has increased materially, well above 90%. And I'm not sure whether that was driven by a redetermination of the effective capacity.

But I was wondering if you can maybe give us some color on the increase in throughput there. The second question is on the tax rate and income from associates in the ENP. Clearly, the ENP is having more equity-accounted volumes. And I was wondering whether that will have an effect on the group tax rate. And also, overall, whether the income from investments in ENP will be lumpy going forward, whether there will be more quarters or quarters where dividends are going to be richer compared to other quarters. That's all from me. Thank you.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

I leave the first question to Stefano Ballista that should be on the phone.

Stefano Ballista (CEO of Enilive)

Yes.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

OK.

Stefano Ballista (CEO of Enilive)

Yeah. The utilization rate got a significant step up. We are around 94% with Gela and Venice, even a little bit higher. Main reason are twofold. First, we didn't get any maintenance, any planned maintenance in this period.

Actually, second, we are getting in place our operational excellence program that is step-by-step improving overall operating performance. So this quarter, we got, I would say, the full results of this effort with pretty much no issue at all. And that's the level of utilization rate we have in place. What throughput do you expect for the year in terms of utilization rate? Let's say, average utilization rate, including planned maintenance, it's about 85%-90%. Next quarter is expected to be around 90%, even a little bit higher, given low number of planned maintenance.

Alessandro Pozzi (Equity Analyst)

Thank you.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

About the tax rate, well, the main difference on the tax rate is related to the mix of production countries, gas pricing, because this is versus last year a major factor of difference more than the contribution from associates. So that is margin is not explaining the tax rate change.

In terms of distribution and dividend, we have different distribution policy between the various associates. These are spread relatively steady during the quarters.

Alessandro Pozzi (Equity Analyst)

In terms of tax rate at the group level for 2024, shall we assume a little bit below 50%?

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

Yeah. Clearly, related to the price assumption that you are showing.

Alessandro Pozzi (Equity Analyst)

Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Biraj Borkhataria with Royal Bank of Canada. Please go ahead.

Biraj Borkhataria (Head of European Energy Research)

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. The first one is just to follow up on Egypt. I was wondering if you could just give a bit more sort of broader perspective on your activities in the country. Obviously, it's an important one for Eni. It doesn't look like the receivable balance has moved this quarter.

Could you just talk about whether you are looking to shift your activity levels up or down given the situation that's ongoing? And then the second question is on divestments and the gross and net CapEx. You've talked to the net CapEx figure at the CMD. And I guess there's two parts of that. There's the upstream, which arguably is a bit more straightforward. And then there's a satellite portion with the various transactions that are going on. But when you farm down things like Plenitude where the new partners are recapitalizing the entity, do you count that as in your divestment targets? Because I guess from the outside, you don't actually receive the cash on that front. So I'm trying to understand how you're accounting for the various different things that are going on because there's a lot of corporate transactions you're planning to do. Thank you.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

First of all, I answer on this. Clearly, once I receive the cash from outside partner in Plenitude and Enilive, I consolidated the cash exactly. I fully consolidated the debt of the company. So that is a reduction in our, let's say, cash imbalance. So by definition, I will take into account all that. I'm surprised by this kind of comment. In terms of Egypt, in terms of Egypt, I can confirm that the overdue is in line, was substantially not, let's say, impacted in the quarter. And I leave the floor to Guido Brusco, the Head of Natural Resources, for the description or the feedback related to the activity in the country.

Guido Brusco (Head of Natural Resources)

Given the, I mean, the size of operation in activity, of course, we still have some limited in-field activity and production optimization projects. We have clearly slowed down a little bit the exploration.

But I mean, overall, we are running our activity as per the plan and as we expected to carry out over this year. So no big changes other than some slowdown on exploration activity.

Biraj Borkhataria (Head of European Energy Research)

Yep. Understood. Thank you both.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Henry Tarr with Berenberg. Please go ahead.

Henry Tarr (Co-Head of Energy and Environment Research)

Hi. And thanks for taking my question. Two. One is just on the share buyback uplift. I guess the increase comes from the higher scenario and so the lift to your cash flow estimates. But if you could just sort of talk through how you got to the EUR 1.6 billion, that would be great. And then I guess the current guidance is if cash flow is better than the EUR 14 billion, is it an incremental 60% of the incremental that will come through into the buyback? That's the first question.

And then just on the second question, you mentioned the supercomputer that you're investing in. What sort of an edge do you think it gives you through the reservoir modeling and exploration side? Thank you.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

Okay. In terms of the updated guidance of the buyback, clearly, this is a mix of two elements. One is the strategic execution. If you have seen production performance, the growth in the renewables and Enilive, the downtime of the biorefineries, even the performance, clearly, that we have already cumulated in the traditional refineries, all these are facts that are behind the past month, past quarter. So we have already cashed this advantage in the past month. And the other element, clearly, is the scenario. The scenario that we designed at the beginning of the year was a scenario where the price of oil was $80.

The price of oil today, year to date, as practically four months already occurred, is $85, almost $85. The gas in Europe, as we discussed before, is much stronger than expected. SERM proved to be extremely resilient. So I think that proves that the energy environment is more supportive. There is also a geopolitical risk that had with the Iranian events of the past weeks some additional factors to be bullish. And clearly, we are quite confident that the performance that we have seen so far is continuing. So I would say that there is a contribution of internal and external factors. On the supercomputer, I will leave to Guido Brusco for the comment.

Guido Brusco (Head of Natural Resources)

I mean, the supercomputer is just one element of our competitive advantage together with, of course, the technology, which, I mean, is our proprietary algorithm, which helps our staff to better understand the geological and the reservoir modeling. And of course, the skill set of our people. We have teams. We always trusted in the exploration as an engine for growth of the company. We never dismissed through the cycle people. And we maintained knowledge, capability in the company.

So the supercomputer is a big enabler, of course. But I mean, the high computational capacity without the right skill set and without the algorithm which would drive this computational capacity towards something meaningful wouldn't explain completely our competitive hedge.

Henry Tarr (Co-Head of Energy and Environment Research)

Okay. Thanks. Is there a CapEx number that you've given for the computer itself? Is it material or not really?

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

It is around EUR 40 million-EUR 50 million. So not particularly expensive. Sorry, EUR 140 million, EUR 140 million, EUR 140 million.

Henry Tarr (Co-Head of Energy and Environment Research)

EUR 140 million. All right. Great. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Irene Himona with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Irene Himona (Senior Analyst)

Thank you. Good afternoon, Francesco. My first question on Enilive, if you can talk a little bit about the performance of marketing within that in the quarter. And also, as you step up your biorefining throughput, are you seeing a corresponding step up in the agri-feedstocks where I think you aim to be sort of 30%-35% integrated? And then the second question, if we go back to the asset disposal plan, the EUR 8 billion over four years, which really to take you back to pre-Neptune, I guess we had Neptune. So it's really EUR 10 billion over four years. You said at the beginning in your prepared remarks that the dual exploration model has delivered EUR 10 billion in 15 years, I think.

So how confident are you in EUR 10 billion over four years, basically? Thank you.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

First of all, and then I will let the answer related to the marketing and to the agri-feedstock to other people about the disposal, that EUR 10 billion actually were accumulated in less than 5 years because where 2013 and 2018, if you remember, clearly, we showed that this overall disposal plan over the last 10 years because we associated to the amount of discovery that we did over the 10 years. But if you remember, the modern big deal and the Zohr deals were substantially concluded between 2013 and 2018. Or there was just a smallest, let's say, portion at the end in 2018, so in four years, five years.

Clearly, now we are even more confident because at the end of the day, we are working on a larger set of opportunities that are coming from the traditional upstream but also through the new satellites. So I believe that four years, five years, in order to execute a plan of disposal as the one that we mentioned in the Capital Markets Day is absolutely achievable. I then leave the floor to Stefano Ballista for the marketing and then to Guido for the agri-feedstock.

Stefano Ballista (CEO of Enilive)

Yeah. Thank you, Francesco. Yeah. Marketing, we got very good performance in this first quarter. Two main reasons. The first one, it's related to very good contribution from the wholesale business. This is coming from a revised strategy focused on the optimal trade-off between volume and margins. Contribution got fully realized this quarter as well. And second point, on retail performance, it's good.

We managed in a very peculiar way, let's say, the optimal pricing strategy per cluster. Then we start to get increased results from non-oil activities.

Guido Brusco (Head of Natural Resources)

On the integration and the feedstock, I mean, the 30% is, of course, at a regime. So when we mentioned this level of integration was at the back end of the plan. As you know, we have quite an exciting ramp-up of production over time. Just two years ago, we were producing a few thousand tons of vegetable oil. Last year, we produced around 40. And this year, 100. So you can see the scale of the ramp-up. We have currently projects in nine countries: Kenya, Congo, Ivory Coast, Mozambique, Angola, Rwanda, Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Italy, and more countries.

We are adding more countries over time, which provides us a kind of diversification by geography and by kind of feedstock, which makes us more confident on our ability to deliver those volumes at the end of the plan.

Irene Himona (Senior Analyst)

Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Peter Low with Redburn Atlantic. Please go ahead.

Peter Low (Managing Director)

Thanks. The first question was on the Plenitude result. Pro forma EBITDA. Well, it did double Q-on-Q. And you're already a third of the way to the full-year guidance of EUR 1 billion. Can you perhaps give a bit more color on what's driving that improvement and whether there are any seasonal or one-off effects in there? I'm just trying to gauge whether you're kind of running ahead of plan there. And then another question on the biorefining business. How do you see margins evolving for the rest of this year?

In the U.S., it looks like they're still quite weak, but we have less visibility as to what's happening in Europe. Thanks.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

Yes. The first question, Plenitude, to Stefano Goberti, they said the head of Plenitude and then again to Stefano Ballista.

Stefano Goberti (CEO of Plenitude)

Peter, the first quarter, 2024, was a good quarter for us, but we are taking advantage of what we have done so far also last year, so putting in production our renewable capacity. And also, we see good results in our retail activity, both in Italy, where we maintain good marginality, and also abroad, where we are recovering marginality because the market conditions are better off compared to prior period where the regulator put in place measures to protect the vulnerable clients. So now, better prices, better market conditions, we could do our job clearly better. So there is no, let's say, one-off element in our result. It's just putting together our activity and then getting the results.

Stefano Ballista (CEO of Enilive)

Yeah. On margin, 2024 is a transitional year both in Europe and in the U.S. This is well known. It's given from, let's say, macrodynamics, supply and demand. Main reason, it's Sweden change of mandates. We expect, in any case, increasing margin in the second half of the year in Europe for two main reasons. First, we got the approval from Holland of the new mandates. It gets to around 30% in terms of energy content. This means an upside of about 400,000 tonnes per year. And given current market size, this is pretty much 10% of increase. That's the first comment. The second one, there is ongoing an anti-dumping procedure related to, let's say, flows from Far East. And this could revise the market dynamics and market competition with a significant effect on margin.

Looking forward on the following year, of course, we have a big change related to ReFuelEU Aviation and to the deployment of Red III that has been approved but will be each state will have 18 months to get it deployed. So it's going to be effective from the following years. Last comment on US, again, let's say, similar expectation, more focus on 2025. We are waiting for the final approval of the revised target from the CARB related to the GHG reduction for California. Rumors are talking of an increased step-up already in 2025. Initially, it was expected 5% increase. Now, there is a chance to have between even 7%-9%. This will drive a significant step-up in terms of demand and in terms of market dynamics.

Peter Low (Managing Director)

Thank you.

Stefano Ballista (CEO of Enilive)

Welcome.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Michele Della Vigna with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Michele Della Vigna (Managing Director)

Thank you very much. And congratulations on the higher buyback. Two questions, if I may. The first one is on LNG. You're probably negotiating some long-term contracts for some of your new projects, including Congo, the second floating LNG in Mozambique. And I was wondering how you're finding the appetite to sign long-term contracts at this time and if the shape still looks more or less as 12%-13% of Brent prices. And then second, I wanted to come back a little bit to your buyback framework. It's very clear how you're distributing to shareholders 60% of the extra cash flow from the initial forecast you made at the Capital Markets Day.

I was wondering if perhaps it wouldn't be worth also considering some of the value from the proceeds you're getting from some of your high-margin businesses as part of something that you may want to share with investors in the form of buyback. Thank you, Francesco.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

The first on the buyback, and then I leave to Guido, Cristian, the answer related to the LNG market. On the buyback, we prefer to associate or to link our distribution policy to the strategic evolution of the company in terms clearly of cash flow distribution, higher distribution in case of upside, etc. It's clear that once you proceed with the overall rebalance from the point of view of leverage, from the point of view of the portfolio activity, then you have a different configuration of your asset or of your setup.

And therefore, you could think to a policy that will, let's say, support a distribution in terms of cash flow from operation with different percentage. But we don't want to consider some one-off element of distribution related to the portfolio. Portfolio is an element that was used for designing the Eni or any setup of today will be, again, an element to fine-tune the value or exiting certain mature assets or extracting the anticipated cash flow from exploration. But this clearly is a part of a broader strategic view where the distribution is an element connected to the cash flow from operation. And then I leave to Guido for the LNG.

Guido Brusco (Head of Natural Resources)

Michele, I mean, following my comment when we were discussing the fourth quarter result, we still see appetite. And I mean, at that time, we were commenting some results of some of our bids.

We have now more data indicating that there is appetite, particularly in the Far East where there is, I mean, interest to sign long-term contracts. Clearly, this is based on the view of those players on the growth of the economies and also the pace of the phase-out of the coal in the energy mix of that part of the world.

Michele Della Vigna (Managing Director)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Alastair Syme with Citi. Please go ahead.

Alastair Syme (Managing Director)

Hi. Thanks. Francesco, apologies if I missed this at the Capital Markets Day. But can you explain on Plenitude what was behind the reduction in equity that was sold at EIP from 9% to 7.6% at close? Is it something to do with the amount of debt that was put into the business? And then my second question was there are press reports saying that you've sold down a little bit of Ghasha in Abu Dhabi.

Was there a little bit? You've gone from 25% to 10%. Can you just explain what's driving this change? And you haven't disclosed the price, but maybe you can give us some sort of broad context as we look at the deal leverage question. Thank you.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

Yes. About the Plenitude deal, if you remember, the EIP, let's say, they presented an initial offer with an option to increase. And they raised that option for a certain amount that is not covering the overall full option. Clearly, has nothing to do with us. It's a decision by the potential buyer. Discussions are going on. It's still continuing on potential upside of this stake. But it's something that is related to the funding capability of the buyer and, from their point of view, of the willingness to proceed with a higher stake. About the gas in Abu Dhabi, I leave to Guido.

Guido Brusco (Head of Natural Resources)

I mean, about the reduction on the participating interest in the project Hail and Ghasha, let me start from the very beginning. So this project started in, I mean, 2018, 2019. We started to look at this project. Then there was the COVID. We relooked into the project. And then by then, our pipeline of projects, thanks to, I mean, the discoveries made and other opportunities that came across, basically expanded quite significantly. At the moment, we have a few of them running.

We have a project in Ivory Coast. We have a project in Congo LNG. We have a project in Libya and a coming project in Indonesia, Mozambique. So we had to, I mean, relook at our capital allocation in the upstream project and rebalance allocation, both geographically and also by the type of commodity. That was the reason of the rebalancing of the participating interest in the Hail and Ghasha project.

Alastair Syme (Managing Director)

Can you say if there's much value, or is it more about the forward CapEx allocation?

Guido Brusco (Head of Natural Resources)

It was, I mean, more about the CapEx allocation that was driving us to, I mean, to be, I would say, more balanced.

Alastair Syme (Managing Director)

Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Next question is from Lydia Sherwood with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Lydia Rainforth (Managing Director)

Thank you. Good afternoon. Two questions, if I could, please. On Versalis, can you just walk us through what steps get taken over the course of 2024? I know you're looking at sort of EBITDA neutral by sort of EBIT in 2025, but obviously, there's quite a lot of work to do there. So I just want to work through what steps we might see in 2024.

And then secondly, if I could come back to the Ithaca transaction, just kind of going through the details. They've talked about the $500 million potential dividend payout for this year. I'm going to just say, is it a cash flow accretive event for Eni, that Ithaca transaction? Thank you.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

I leave the floor to Adriano, and then I will return back for the answer on Ithaca.

Adriano Alfani (CEO of Versalis)

Thanks, Lydia, for the question. As we communicate in the Capital Market Day in March, the transformation of Versalis' journey is not a one-quarter journey, but it is a four-year journey and probably will take a few more, as we said. Quarter-over-quarter, I mean, we are constantly increasing our efficiency in terms of cost reduction. And this is something that we have been able to oo already in part in Q1, but it's not all coming in a quarter.

We continue to accelerate the transformation of the company in order to build a platform. This is the reason why, although it was not in Q1, but in April, we announced the acquisition of another compounding company, the Tecnofilm, that will enable us to specialize in the end-user market. Of course, we have strong discipline, like we always have done in the past. But we are accelerating the CapEx reduction, especially not at all the reduction on HSE, asset integrity. They remain our first priority, but on business that generate less margin. We are perfectly on trajectory with what we announced in Capital Markets Day, but progress is quarter-over-quarter, not in one single quarter. Yeah.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

About the Ithaca, the distribution policy that was designed with this target of EUR 500 million is, let's say, partially accretive versus our standalone case. We have already included this in our plan. So the answer is yes.

Lydia Rainforth (Managing Director)

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Kim Fustier with HSBC. Please go ahead.

Kim Fustier (Head of European Oil and Gas Research)

Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Just another follow-up, please, on the Ithaca combination. I guess the implied consideration paid by Ithaca seems to imply quite a large discount to the fair value now of your U.K. assets. And I'm also a little surprised that there was no adjustment to the initial 38%-39% range, despite quite a big slide that we've seen in Ithaca's share price in the past four weeks. So maybe could you talk a little bit about how the final valuation was derived in that context? And secondly, could you talk a little bit about the potential impact of reimposition of U.S. sanctions in Venezuela on your activities? Thank you.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

On the Ithaca deal, clearly, we negotiated the deal over a number of months. I think that is, let's say, the reference of a price level that is on a daily basis shifting and moving is not the proper way to assess a long-term strategic deal that is based on cash flow expectation, on rerating expectation, on synergies, and upside. So the 38.5% is the result of all this assumption and not the effect of a daily trading. I would like also to add that we have 200 or more improvements in terms of, let's say, net book value. So the deal is generating, let's say, rerating in the range of EUR 200 million versus what we have in our accounting. For Venezuela, I leave to Guido.

Guido Brusco (Head of Natural Resources)

Well, on Venezuela, I mean, just as I mean, we are recording an increased trend of lifting equity over time in the last quarter.

Despite the, I mean, the GL, I mean, 44 being removed, we still expect to continue this positive trend of cargo assignment. I mean, the GL 44 has not been renewed, but it's still in place, I mean, the so-called ad hoc comfort procedure that the U.S. authorities could provide to recover credit, which in our case, I mean, being the gas production very necessary for the country has always been granted in the past.

Kim Fustier (Head of European Oil and Gas Research)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Alejandro Vigil with Santander.

Alejandro Vigil (Head of European Integrated Energy Equity Research)

Yes. Hello. Thank you for taking my questions. Yes. One question about the CCS, your CCS strategy. When are you expecting the first FID of the projects and the potential size of the investment? Thank you.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

Guido.

Guido Brusco (Head of Natural Resources)

I mean, on the CCS, our broad strategy is, I mean, we consider CCS one of the levers of the decarbonization and the global net zero.

We are currently running a project in Italy, in Ravenna, phase one of a bigger project, which we expect to start up in the, I mean, within the quarter two. Then we have a phase two. The size of this phase two is 4 million tons per annum. We expect to make an FID in 2025 and start up the injection before 2030. Equally, in U.K., we have a project in the Liverpool Bay area called HyNet. We have already negotiated, I mean, recently, an add-on agreement for the economic license. And we expect to receive the full economic license by the Q3 and make a cluster FID together with a group of emitters by the end of the year and start reinjection also before 2030. We also have a project like, I mean, we also have another project in U.K., Bacton, in the northeast of London.

The size of this, I mean, the size of the investment for this project, I'm talking about the phase two of Ravenna and HyNet in the transport and storage segment only, is between EUR 1.7 billion-EUR 1.8 billion gross.

Alejandro Vigil (Head of European Integrated Energy Equity Research)

Thank you.

Guido Brusco (Head of Natural Resources)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Next question is from Massimo Bonisoli with Equita. Please go ahead.

Massimo Bonisoli (Financial Analyst)

Good afternoon. Two follow-up questions remaining. The first on Plenitude. Given the very strong performance in first quarter, the implied guidance for the remaining nine months would be down year-over-year, if I calculated it correctly, since your renewable generation should be up year-over-year. Could you shed some light on the assumptions behind the guidance? Maybe you kept a good level of contingencies there. The second follow-up on the buyback. Could you comment on the speed of the buyback that should be executed on a monthly basis? Thank you.

Stefano Goberti (CEO of Plenitude)

Thank you, Massimo. The guidance is confirmed at EUR 1 billion will be done. Of course, we are going ahead well with our progress in the strategy. So you're right. We have 3 GW of installed capacity, and we are working on 2 GW of installation in 36 different projects across our operation areas. And also, in retail, we are doing good progress in our strategy and performance, especially in Europe. So for the time being, everything has been doing well, and we promised EUR 1 billion, and we target this EUR 1 billion.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

On the buyback, you know that we start the buyback as soon as we receive the approval by the AGM. It can last up to the following year, up to the month of, let's say, March, and April of the next year. That is the period we are looking at.

And clearly, it will depend on the evolution of the business, of the scenario. But you have to consider, as a preliminary estimate, this, let's say, 10-month period as a reference.

Massimo Bonisoli (Financial Analyst)

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Bertrand Hodee with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Bertrand Hodee (Head of Oil and Gas Research Team)

Yes. Hello. One question left. It's on Ivory Coast. Can you give us a bit more color on the Calao Discovery and the optionality behind that discovery? And just due to it was on a different block from Baleine. So what's the next step on Calao, or more broadly, on Ivory Coast exploration program going forward? Thank you.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

Aldo Napolitano, Head of Exploration. Then Guido will give the broader view on Ivory Coast.

Aldo Napolitano (Head of Exploration)

Yes. Thank you. Yes. The Calao Discovery is a new discovery. It's a discovery in a different play than Baleine. So we think we have demonstrated that there are many options, actually, in Ivory Coast in terms of exploration. So new plays like the kind the one of Baleine or a traditional play, if you like, in the case of Baleine, so geologic theme, in the case of Calao, that is coming from the experience that we have done also in neighboring basins.

So we have exported the experience that we had there. So we believe there are opportunities. So you have seen, I guess, in the case of Baleine, so we have got also acreage adjacent to the discovery itself. We have some more acreage also around Calao. So we will work on defining new opportunities. For what concerns Calao itself, it's quite a large hydrocarbon accumulation that we require some appraisal activity.

So we are working on different scenarios for development depending on the then what will be the final results from the data that we will acquire. So I leave to Guido to complete.

Guido Brusco (Head of Natural Resources)

Yeah. So this is Calao and the new discovery. And on Baleine, we are running full steam now with the phase two of the project, which would come on stream by the end of the year with an additional production of about 40,000 barrels of oil, which would add to the 20 plus, 22,000-23,000 barrels, which is the current production of the phase one, which is largely exceeding the initial expectation. So once the phase two will come on stream, we'll have an overall production for oil between 60,000-70,000 barrels of oil per day and gas production of about 70 million standard cubic feet per day.

While we are executing the phase II, we are in the feed procurement phase for the phase III, where we expect, in the, I would say, by beginning of 2025, to make a decision on an investment. This will be an FPSO, a standalone FPSO, and would bring the total production of oil to 150,000+ barrels per day and gas to 200 million standard cubic feet per day.

Bertrand Hodee (Head of Oil and Gas Research Team)

Okay. Thank you.

Francesco Gattei (CFO)

I think that we have completed the call. I would like to thank you for all the questions. And clearly, we will leave you, if you have any additional request, to be in contact with our Investor Relations team for all the additional information that you look for. Bye. Thank you.