EA
ENTERGY ARKANSAS, LLC (EAI)·Q1 2018 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Entergy affirmed 2018 consolidated operational EPS guidance of $6.25–$6.85 and Utility, Parent & Other adjusted EPS guidance of $4.50–$4.90; management signaled tracking “about in the middle” for the year, with Utility, Parent & Other “right on track” .
- Q1 2018 consolidated results: revenue $2.72B, as-reported EPS $0.73, operational EPS $1.16, up vs Q1 2017 on lower tax rate and favorable weather; partially offset by decommissioning trust MTM losses from ASU 2016‑01 implementation at EWC .
- Regulatory execution remained a tailwind: New Orleans Power Station approval, Louisiana FRP settlement approval; tax reform benefits returned to customers through regulatory mechanisms dampened net revenue uplift at certain utilities .
- Key narrative for stock reaction: guidance affirmation, constructive regulatory outcomes, and clarity on tax reform/ADIT return and FRP mechanics; offset by EWC trust volatility under new accounting .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
-
What Went Well
- Affirmed 2018 guidance; CFO: “expecting to be about in the middle” of consolidated operational EPS range; Utility, Parent & Other “right on track” .
- Regulatory wins: approval for New Orleans Power Station; LPSC approved Entergy Louisiana FRP settlement; Mississippi annual FRP filing submitted .
- Weather and lower federal tax rate supported YoY EPS; estimated weather contributed $0.09 in Q1 2018 vs $(0.16) in Q1 2017 .
-
What Went Wrong
- EWC decommissioning trust MTM losses under ASU 2016‑01 reduced earnings; management highlighted unfavorable effects from implementation on EWC .
- Utility non-fuel O&M higher YoY (nuclear operations, energy efficiency, storm reserve, fossil work), partly offset by insurance refunds .
- Net revenue uplift from rate changes was more than offset at certain utilities by regulatory provisions returning tax reform benefits to customers in Q1 2018 .
Financial Results
Notes: Operating income margin is calculated from cited revenue and operating income.
Segment earnings (after-tax, $mm)
- As-reported
- Operational (non-GAAP)
KPIs and drivers
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We’ve had a solid start to 2018 with success on key projects and regulatory initiatives. Our results keep us on track to achieve our full year guidance and long-term outlooks.” — Leo Denault, Chairman & CEO .
- “Entergy affirmed its 2018 consolidated operational earnings guidance range of $6.25 to $6.85 per share and its Utility, Parent & Other adjusted guidance range of $4.50 to $4.90 per share.” .
- “We are expecting to be about in the middle [of consolidated operational guidance]... For Utility Parent & Other, we are right on track as of first quarter.” — CFO Drew Marsh (Q&A) .
- Prior quarter context: “2017 was another productive year... Initiates 2018 consolidated operational EPS guidance of $6.25 to $6.85 and Utility, Parent & Other adjusted EPS guidance of $4.50 to $4.90.” — Leo Denault (Q4 release) .
Q&A Highlights
- Guidance positioning: In response to where results track vs guidance, CFO indicated consolidated operational EPS trending “about in the middle” and Utility, Parent & Other “right on track” .
- Returning excess ADIT: Management outlined a plan to return roughly half in 2018 and the remainder over four years; Mississippi FRP filing requested no base rate change due to lower federal tax rate .
- FRP mechanics: Louisiana FRP includes a new transmission rider to improve recovery timeliness; initial filing targeted by end of June with September effective rates .
- Trust fund volatility: Management flagged decommissioning trust volatility under ASU 2016‑01 as a headwind affecting EWC results .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates for Q1 2018 EPS and revenue were unavailable via API at time of analysis due to request limit; as a result, we cannot formally assess beat/miss vs Wall Street consensus for this quarter (S&P Global data access error) [GetEstimates error].
- Internally, YoY operational EPS increased to $1.16 from $0.99 on weather and lower tax rate; sequentially, operational EPS improved vs Q4 2017 $0.76; revenue also rose YoY to $2.72B from $2.59B .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Guidance intact; management tone constructive with mid-point bias and stable Utility, Parent & Other trajectory — supportive for multiple and estimate stability near-term .
- Regulatory execution (LA FRP settlement, NOPS approval) and FRP mechanics (new transmission rider) enhance earnings visibility and ROE realization prospects .
- Tax reform pass-through moderates customer bills but can mask underlying rate-driven revenue uplift in the quarter; investors should adjust for regulatory give-backs when assessing Utility momentum .
- Watch EWC exposure to decommissioning trust MTM under ASU 2016‑01 — a non-operational, but potentially noisy, earnings item in 2018 .
- Weather tailwinds aided Q1; normalized views (Utility, Parent & Other adjusted) and OCF trends remain the better gauge of run-rate fundamentals .
- Near-term positioning: With guidance affirmed and regulatory catalysts progressing, pullbacks tied to EWC/trust volatility may be opportunities for investors focused on the core regulated growth story .
Sources: Q1 2018 8‑K Item 2.02 and Exhibit 99.1, including appendices and financial statements ; Q4 2017 8‑K and press release ; Q3 2017 8‑K and press release ; Q1 2018 earnings call transcript excerpts .