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EA

ENTERGY ARKANSAS, LLC (EAI)·Q1 2018 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Entergy affirmed 2018 consolidated operational EPS guidance of $6.25–$6.85 and Utility, Parent & Other adjusted EPS guidance of $4.50–$4.90; management signaled tracking “about in the middle” for the year, with Utility, Parent & Other “right on track” .
  • Q1 2018 consolidated results: revenue $2.72B, as-reported EPS $0.73, operational EPS $1.16, up vs Q1 2017 on lower tax rate and favorable weather; partially offset by decommissioning trust MTM losses from ASU 2016‑01 implementation at EWC .
  • Regulatory execution remained a tailwind: New Orleans Power Station approval, Louisiana FRP settlement approval; tax reform benefits returned to customers through regulatory mechanisms dampened net revenue uplift at certain utilities .
  • Key narrative for stock reaction: guidance affirmation, constructive regulatory outcomes, and clarity on tax reform/ADIT return and FRP mechanics; offset by EWC trust volatility under new accounting .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Affirmed 2018 guidance; CFO: “expecting to be about in the middle” of consolidated operational EPS range; Utility, Parent & Other “right on track” .
    • Regulatory wins: approval for New Orleans Power Station; LPSC approved Entergy Louisiana FRP settlement; Mississippi annual FRP filing submitted .
    • Weather and lower federal tax rate supported YoY EPS; estimated weather contributed $0.09 in Q1 2018 vs $(0.16) in Q1 2017 .
  • What Went Wrong

    • EWC decommissioning trust MTM losses under ASU 2016‑01 reduced earnings; management highlighted unfavorable effects from implementation on EWC .
    • Utility non-fuel O&M higher YoY (nuclear operations, energy efficiency, storm reserve, fossil work), partly offset by insurance refunds .
    • Net revenue uplift from rate changes was more than offset at certain utilities by regulatory provisions returning tax reform benefits to customers in Q1 2018 .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.59 $3.24 $2.62 $2.72
EPS (As-reported, $)$0.46 $2.21 $(2.66) $0.73
EPS (Operational, $)$0.99 $2.35 $0.76 $1.16
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$195.5 $729.5 $211.9 $335.7
Operating Income Margin (%)7.6% (195.5/2,588.5) 22.5% (729.5/3,243.6) 8.1% (211.9/2,623.8) 12.3% (335.7/2,723.9)

Notes: Operating income margin is calculated from cited revenue and operating income.

Segment earnings (after-tax, $mm)

  • As-reported
SegmentQ1 2017Q1 2018
Utility165 215
Parent & Other(54) (64)
EWC(28) (18)
Consolidated83 133
  • Operational (non-GAAP)
SegmentQ1 2017Q1 2018
Utility165 215
Parent & Other(54) (64)
EWC67 60
Consolidated178 211

KPIs and drivers

KPIQ1 2017Q1 2018
Estimated weather impact (EPS, $)$(0.16) $0.09
Utility net revenue variance from weather (pre-tax, $mm, 2018 vs 2017)+$69
Consolidated Operating Cash Flow ($mm)529 557
Diluted shares outstanding (mm)179.8 181.4

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated Operational EPSFY 2018$6.25–$6.85 (initiated on 2/23/18) $6.25–$6.85 Maintained
Utility, Parent & Other Adjusted EPSFY 2018$4.50–$4.90 $4.50–$4.90 Maintained
Expected impact of special items on as‑reported EPSFY 2018Approximately $(2.55) per share (excluded from non‑GAAP guidance) New disclosure detail

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2017, Q4 2017)Current Period (Q1 2018)Trend
Guidance outlookQ3: Affirmed 2017 guidance and longer-term outlooks . Q4: Initiated 2018 consolidated operational EPS $6.25–$6.85; Utility, Parent & Other adjusted $4.50–$4.90 .Affirmed both ranges; CFO expects around the midpoint; Utility, Parent & Other “right on track” .Stable; confidence improved toward midpoint.
Tax reform and ADIT returnQ4: Large tax revaluation; regulatory mechanisms to return benefits; created net regulatory liabilities; no EPS impact from revaluation .Plan to return roughly half of unprotected excess ADIT in 2018, remainder over four years; Mississippi FRP filing requested no base rate change due to lower federal tax rate .Ongoing return execution; customer bill moderation.
FRP/regulatory frameworkQ3: Progress across AR, TX, LA FRPs and AMI approvals .Louisiana FRP settlement approved; FRP includes new transmission rider to improve timeliness of recovery; first filing by end of June for September effective rates .Constructive, supports earning allowed returns.
Decommissioning trust/ASU 2016‑01Unfavorable EWC impact from implementing ASU 2016‑01; MTM losses on equity investments flowed through income .Newly negative 2018 accounting headwind at EWC.
Nuclear fleet milestonesQ3: Plan to operate Palisades until May 2022; restoration performance recognized .Indian Point 2 completed final refueling before retirement .De-risking merchant nuclear continues.

Management Commentary

  • “We’ve had a solid start to 2018 with success on key projects and regulatory initiatives. Our results keep us on track to achieve our full year guidance and long-term outlooks.” — Leo Denault, Chairman & CEO .
  • “Entergy affirmed its 2018 consolidated operational earnings guidance range of $6.25 to $6.85 per share and its Utility, Parent & Other adjusted guidance range of $4.50 to $4.90 per share.” .
  • “We are expecting to be about in the middle [of consolidated operational guidance]... For Utility Parent & Other, we are right on track as of first quarter.” — CFO Drew Marsh (Q&A) .
  • Prior quarter context: “2017 was another productive year... Initiates 2018 consolidated operational EPS guidance of $6.25 to $6.85 and Utility, Parent & Other adjusted EPS guidance of $4.50 to $4.90.” — Leo Denault (Q4 release) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Guidance positioning: In response to where results track vs guidance, CFO indicated consolidated operational EPS trending “about in the middle” and Utility, Parent & Other “right on track” .
  • Returning excess ADIT: Management outlined a plan to return roughly half in 2018 and the remainder over four years; Mississippi FRP filing requested no base rate change due to lower federal tax rate .
  • FRP mechanics: Louisiana FRP includes a new transmission rider to improve recovery timeliness; initial filing targeted by end of June with September effective rates .
  • Trust fund volatility: Management flagged decommissioning trust volatility under ASU 2016‑01 as a headwind affecting EWC results .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q1 2018 EPS and revenue were unavailable via API at time of analysis due to request limit; as a result, we cannot formally assess beat/miss vs Wall Street consensus for this quarter (S&P Global data access error) [GetEstimates error].
  • Internally, YoY operational EPS increased to $1.16 from $0.99 on weather and lower tax rate; sequentially, operational EPS improved vs Q4 2017 $0.76; revenue also rose YoY to $2.72B from $2.59B .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Guidance intact; management tone constructive with mid-point bias and stable Utility, Parent & Other trajectory — supportive for multiple and estimate stability near-term .
  • Regulatory execution (LA FRP settlement, NOPS approval) and FRP mechanics (new transmission rider) enhance earnings visibility and ROE realization prospects .
  • Tax reform pass-through moderates customer bills but can mask underlying rate-driven revenue uplift in the quarter; investors should adjust for regulatory give-backs when assessing Utility momentum .
  • Watch EWC exposure to decommissioning trust MTM under ASU 2016‑01 — a non-operational, but potentially noisy, earnings item in 2018 .
  • Weather tailwinds aided Q1; normalized views (Utility, Parent & Other adjusted) and OCF trends remain the better gauge of run-rate fundamentals .
  • Near-term positioning: With guidance affirmed and regulatory catalysts progressing, pullbacks tied to EWC/trust volatility may be opportunities for investors focused on the core regulated growth story .

Sources: Q1 2018 8‑K Item 2.02 and Exhibit 99.1, including appendices and financial statements ; Q4 2017 8‑K and press release ; Q3 2017 8‑K and press release ; Q1 2018 earnings call transcript excerpts .