Executive Summary

Q4 revenue fell 30% to $194.7M on sharp declines in NARCAN (-41%) and Anthrax MCM (-71%), partially offset by a 565% surge in Smallpox MCM; GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.58) and Adjusted EBITDA was $21.0M, with total segment adjusted gross margin improving to 40% .
Management initiated conservative FY2025 guidance: revenue $750–$850M, Adjusted EBITDA $150–$200M, net income $16–$66M, and total segment adjusted gross margin 48–51%; Q1 2025 revenue guided to $200–$240M, with a strong start expected and a margin expansion focus despite lower top line .
Balance sheet and liquidity improved: YE 2024 cash ~$100M, net debt ~$600.5M (3.3x TTM Adjusted EBITDA), and total liquidity of ~$200M (cash + undrawn revolver); going concern qualification removed, and ratings upgraded (Moody’s B3, S&P B-) .
Strategic catalysts: exclusive U.S./Canada commercial rights to 8mg KLOXXADO (naloxone) to complement OTC NARCAN 4mg; potential WHO Emergency Use Listing for ACAM2000 for mpox; visibility into future U.S./international MCM procurements .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Smallpox MCM momentum: Q4 Smallpox MCM sales jumped 565% YoY to $76.5M, driven by higher ACAM2000 non-U.S. sales and USG timing on VIGIV CNJ-016 .
Cost discipline and margins: Q4 total segment adjusted gross margin rose 800 bps YoY to 40%; R&D and SG&A were down $49M (41%) YoY, reflecting restructuring and cost actions (CFO) .
Balance sheet repair: YE 2024 net leverage fell to 3.3x Adjusted EBITDA with ~$200M liquidity; going concern qualification removed; both Moody’s and S&P raised ratings (CFO) .

Management quotes:

“We completed our first phase [stabilization] ahead of schedule… In 2025, we'll be executing our turnaround phase” (CEO) .
“Total segment adjusted gross margin of 40% improved 800 basis points year over year… expense levels now represent a dollar run rate that incorporates the full impact of our cost savings efforts” (CFO) .
“We believe that this year may represent a trough in adjusted EBITDA going forward as we expect to grow our profitability from here” (CFO) .

What Went Wrong

NARCAN revenue pressure: Q4 NARCAN fell 41% YoY to $65.1M on lower OTC sales and Canada retail; pricing declined in 1H’24 and stabilized in 2H, but lower pricing will still weigh on 2025 (CFO) .
Anthrax MCM timing: Q4 Anthrax MCM revenue dropped 71% YoY to $32.5M due to timing of USG purchases/options (lumpy procurement) .
Bioservices reset: Q4 Bioservices revenue fell 64% YoY (Camden sale; Bayview compares to prior-year resolution); full-year Services gross margin was deeply negative due to Janssen settlement accounting (net $110.2M) and lower Canton production .

Financial Results

Headline results – Q4 2024 vs prior quarter and prior year

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($M)	$276.6	$293.8	$194.7
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.95)	$2.06	$(0.58)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$3.4	$105.3	$21.0
Total Segment Adjusted Gross Margin %	32%	59%	40%

Notes: Q4 composition skewed away from Anthrax and toward Smallpox MCM; sequential step-down from Q3 reflects procurement timing and weaker NARCAN .

Segment and revenue mix

($M)	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
NARCAN	$111.0	$95.3	$65.1
Anthrax MCM	$111.6	$11.4	$32.5
Smallpox MCM	$11.5	$132.7	$76.5
Other Products	$15.0	$30.1	$7.8
Total Product Sales	$249.1	$269.5	$181.9
Bioservices (Services+Leases)	$20.8	$14.3	$7.4
Contracts & Grants	$6.7	$10.0	$5.4
Total Revenues	$276.6	$293.8	$194.7

Drivers: NARCAN down on OTC and Canada; Anthrax lumpy USG options; Smallpox up on ACAM2000 non-U.S. and VIGIV timing; Bioservices down on Camden sale and Bayview compare .

Operating expense and capex snapshot

($M)	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
R&D	$29.4	$13.8	$9.1
SG&A	$89.7	$76.6	$60.8
Total Operating Expenses	$320.4	$229.3	$204.2
Capital Expenditures	$11.4	$5.8	$1.7

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Revenues	FY 2025	N/A	$750–$850M	Initiated
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	N/A	$150–$200M	Initiated
Net Income	FY 2025	N/A	$16–$66M	Initiated
Adjusted Net Income	FY 2025	N/A	$20–$70M	Initiated
Total Segment Adjusted GM %	FY 2025	N/A	48%–51%	Initiated
MCM Products Revenue	FY 2025	N/A	$435–$485M	Initiated
Commercial Products Revenue	FY 2025	N/A	$265–$315M	Initiated
Total Revenues	Q1 2025	N/A	$200–$240M	Initiated
Total Revenues	FY 2024 (as of 11/6/24)	$1,065–$1,125M	Actual $1,043.6M	Outcome: Below range

Key assumptions for 2025 include interest expense ~$55M, R&D ~6–7% of revenue, SG&A ~27–28%, capex ~$17M, D&A ~$100M; weighted average diluted shares ~54M .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q4)	Trend
NARCAN pricing/volume	Q2: price mix pressure, OTC ramp; Q3: pricing stabilized in 2H’24; public interest channel strength	Pricing stabilization continues; 2025 guidance reflects lower pricing carryover; maintain majority share; public interest ~75% of business	Pricing pressure easing; share leadership maintained
MCM visibility	Q2/Q3: ~$500–$550M of contract mods; strong ACAM2000/VIGIV timing; raised 2024 MCM guide	2025 MCM guide $435–$485M; emphasis on USG/ally demand and contract options execution	Solid visibility; timing remains lumpy
Bioservices reset	Q2: Janssen settlement and write-downs; Services GM deeply negative; asset sales (Camden)	Lower revenue/costs post-Camden sale; Services GM still negative but improved YoY	Rightsized footprint; de-emphasized
Cost actions & margins	Q2: restructuring; Q3: SG&A and R&D down; 2024 adj GM +1,200 bps YoY	2025 adj GM % guided +~500 bps vs 2024; OpEx down 41% YoY in Q4 (CFO)	Structural margin expansion
Liquidity/Leverage	Q3: refinanced term loan, new $100M ABL; net leverage 3.3x; liquidity ~$200M	YE’24 cash ~$100M; 3.3x leverage confirmed; going concern removed; ratings upgraded (CFO)	Improved and stable
KLOXXADO integration	N/A	Secured exclusive U.S./CAN rights; integrate into NARCANDirect in 30–60 days (from call date)	Incremental commercial lever
Mpox/ACAM2000	Q3: FDA approval for mpox indication; WHO EUL submission	Expect WHO EUL; not baked into 2025 guide (potential upside)	Optionality/upside

Management Commentary

Strategic focus: “This strong foundation enables Emergent to focus on profitable revenue growth and cash generation as we move forward with turnaround activities” (CEO) .
Turnaround cadence: “We completed [stabilization] ahead of schedule… In 2025, we'll be executing our turnaround phase” (CEO) .
NARCAN leadership: “NARCAN remains the market leader… approximately 75% share of the market” (CEO) .
Profitability trajectory: “We believe that this year may represent a trough in adjusted EBITDA… expect to grow our profitability from here” (CFO) .
2025 guide posture: “We are being conservative due to the transitions anticipated in the new administration” (CFO) .

Q&A Highlights

NARCAN dynamics: Pricing stabilized in 2H’24; 2025 ranges reflect carryover of lower price; maintain majority share in public interest (~75% of NARCAN business) .
2025 EBITDA outlook: Midpoint roughly flat YoY; viewed as a trough with growth expected thereafter via portfolio diversification (MCM, NARCAN, KLOXXADO) and potential biz dev (CEO/CFO) .
OpEx trajectory: Full benefit of cost actions in Q4 run-rate; opportunity to further scale SG&A with growth (CFO) .
KLOXXADO positioning: Distribution-led synergy via NARCANDirect; addresses higher-dose needs (8mg) amid fentanyl exposure; integration expected within 30–60 days (CEO) .
USG procurement cadence: Expect 2024 pattern as a marker; timing of option exercises may shift intra-year; strong Q1 anticipated (CFO/CEO) .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 revenue/EPS/EBITDA was unavailable at time of retrieval due to access limits, so we cannot assess beats/misses. Values would be sourced from S&P Global if accessible. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Revenue volatility is driven by USG procurement timing and NARCAN pricing; Q4 mix shifted away from Anthrax and toward Smallpox MCM, with NARCAN down 41% YoY and Anthrax down 71% YoY, but Smallpox up 565% YoY .
Margins are structurally improving: Q4 total segment adjusted GM reached 40% (+800 bps YoY) and FY2025 guided to 48–51% despite lower revenue guidance (mix, footprint optimization) .
Liquidity and credit profile materially improved: YE’24 cash ~$100M, net leverage 3.3x, liquidity ~$200M, rating upgrades, and removal of going concern—supporting turnaround execution .
2025 guide is conservative (new administration timing risk), but management expects a strong Q1 and views 2025 as an EBITDA trough with growth beyond (potential catalysts: WHO EUL for ACAM2000, KLOXXADO rollout, international MCM) .
Commercial naloxone strategy now spans OTC NARCAN 4mg and Rx KLOXXADO 8mg to address broader use cases; integration into NARCANDirect should enhance reach and ordering simplicity .
Services is de-emphasized and right-sized after Camden sale and Janssen settlement; focus is on core MCM and naloxone franchises .
Watch procurement updates (Anthrax/Smallpox/BAT/Ebanga) and NARCAN price/mix trends intra-year for estimate revisions and stock catalysts (CFO says pattern similar to 2024) .

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary