Ecopetrol - Q1 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning. My name is Camila Huella, and I will be your operator today. Welcome to Ecopetrol's earning conference call, in which we will discuss the main financial and operational results for the Q1 of 2023. There will be a questions and answer session at the end of the presentation. Before we begin, it's important to mention that the comments in this call by Ecopetrol's senior management include projections of the company's future performance. These projections do not constitute any commitment as to future results, nor do they take into account risks or uncertainties that could materialize. As a result, Ecopetrol assume no responsibility in the event that future results are different from the projections shared on this conference call. The call will be led by Mr.

Ricardo Roa, CEO of Ecopetrol, Diana Escobar, Vice President of Sustainability Development, Maria Paula Camacho, Vice President of Legal Affairs and General Secretary, Yeimy Baez, Vice President of Low Emission Solutions, Alberto Consuegra, COO, Jaime Caballero, CFO. Thank you for your attention. Mr. Roa, you may begin your conference.

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President and CEO)

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the earnings. It's my privilege to address you today to present the Ecopetrol Group's results for the 1st quarter of 2023. Before I begin with the material that we have prepared for you, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to all the members of this organization for their commitment and dedication to their daily work. Clearly, Ecopetrol employees are fully engaged and passionate about their work. It is an honor to lead such a talent and committed team. Together, we will work to secure that Ecopetrol continues to be a reference within the energy sector with operational excellence and financial performance and a global leader for the energy transition.

I want to express my deep commitment to strengthen and continue Ecopetrol Group's 2040 strategy, which was announced at the beginning of last year, fostering the group's consolidation as a leading energy group in the region. The strategy, Energy that Transforms, answer the current challenges associated with the energy transition, in which society must be balanced simultaneously three energy priorities: availability, accessibility in terms of cost and efficiency, and all of this in an environmentally responsible manner. For the Ecopetrol Group, this is possible through our four strategic pillars, growing with the energy transition, generation value through TESG, cutting-edge knowledge, and competitive returns. Our 2023 plans is a key milestone for the strategy, and we are committed to effectively and efficiently implement it and to achieve our goals.

CAPEX between COP 25.3 trillion-COP 29.8 trillion to accelerate the path of transition and energy security. Production between 720,000 and 725,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day that are key for the trade balance, stability, and energy supply. All this in addition to increase the impact of social investment and always seeking a close and open communication with society and communities with whom we work on a daily basis in our operation. Let's move on the next slide to present the main results and milestones for the Q1 of 2023.

I would like to start highlighting our resilience as we move within a high changing market environment on the price side, as well as challenging local environment and security situations at the beginning of the year. Q1 production averages 719,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and increased 27,000 barrels versus the Q1 of 2022. Growth was supported by the company's operational strength and higher production from key fields such Caño Sur, Rubiales, and Permian in Texas, United States. In the Q1 of the year, we registered revenues of COP 38.9 trillion, EBITDA of COP 17.8 trillion, and net income of COP 5.7 trillion. These results were a consequence of a strengthening of the Brent prices present in the Colombian pesos, given the devaluation of the currency.

Operational strength in the hydrocarbon business with higher production and refinery throughput, as well as growth is transported to and refined at products. It is worth noting that the gas and LPG business record and EBITDA margin of 59% in the quarter last. We also highlight the performance of the energy transmission and toll road segment due to the new projects and the adjustment in tariff because of indexation factors. I would like to point out that the dividend payment approved by the shareholders' general meeting of COP 24.4 trillion, equivalent to COP 593 per share, the highest in the company history. This value will represent a dividend yield of 25% and implies the dividend payout of 73% of the 2022's net income.

We also highlight our target to reduce methane emissions by 45% by 2025, and 55% by 2030 compared to the 2019 baseline in the direct operations of the production segment through the detection, discernment, and elimination of fugitive emissions and the reduction of venting in tanks and wells. Let's please move to the next slide. The global economic environment for 2020 is challenging, with low growth expectations and inflationary pressures that limit the possibility of a change in contractionary monetary policy. In this context, the group has taken strategic actions to ensure the completion of the business plan by closely monitoring the different market risks, which include not only those related to the price of crude oil and refinery products, but also macroeconomic variables such as inflation, the exchange rate, and the cost of debt, among others.

Regarding the price of crude oil during the Q1 of the year, Brent crude oil fell from $84 per barrel to $79 per barrel between January and March. The movement was explained by the resilience of Russian production, the building of crude inventories in the United States, Europe, and Japan, and the financial state observed in the second week of March with the bank increases that began in the United States. During the quarter, we saw opportunities that we were able to take advantage of, such as the recent OPEC+ announcements to cut production starting in May, supporting the spreads of our crude oil basket. Likewise, the reactivation on demand in China represents an opportunity for our subsidiary in Singapore.

To materialize these market opportunities, Ecopetrol will continue to use different contractual schemes that include the delivery of crude oil and products marketed by the company at the customer's facilities. In the Ecopetrol Group, each business line is constantly looking for new efficiencies which allow us to manage the impact of inflation, and also alternatives that allow us to use technology and innovation to fulfill our business plan for an increasingly efficient use of resource. I now give the floor to Diana Escobar, Vice President of Sustainable Development, so that we can begin to review progress on the milestone of the TESG strategy.

Diana Escobar (VP of Sustainability Development)

Thank you, Ricardo. In 2023, we continue to generate significant social value. It is worth emphasizing that for this year, the investment plan within the Ecopetrol Group's sustainable development portfolio amounts to a record-breaking COP 773 billion, representing a 25% increase compared to 2022. Here are some relevant milestones. During the Q1, we made remarkable progress in our contribution to the goals of national public education, benefiting 31,000 students. In March, we selected 94 new students to grant them with scholarships through the Bachilleres Ecopetrol Program to pursue higher education studies. Furthermore, 35 talented young women earned a place to participate in the program called She Is an Astronaut, an initiative aimed at enhancing STEM skills, culminated in a transformative visit to NASA's Space Center in August.

Within the scope of the Ecopetrol Emprende program, through technical business companionship, we successfully completed our support for 100 entrepreneurs, micro and small-sized enterprises from Villavicencio in the Meta Department. As a result, they achieved an increase of 36% in sales and expanded their customer base by 52%. With the goal of narrowing the national gap in access to public services, we achieved a significant milestone this quarter by connecting over 11,500 families to natural gas in the city of Barranquilla and in the municipalities of Arauquita, Arauca, Puerto Rondón, and Cravo Norte in the Department of Arauca. I would like to emphasize our commitment to sustainability and the energy transition. In a collaboration between Ecopetrol and Esenttia, we proudly inaugurated the first sustainable wagon of Bogota's mass transportation system, TransMilenio, which operates under environmental sustainability criteria.

To honor our commitment to be in close proximity to the country's communities, during this quarter, we conducted nine social dialogues, engaging community action boards, academy, entrepreneurs, and local institutions. On top of that, we actively participated in the 2023 National Popular Communal Assembly, where we had the opportunity to engage with 5,000 members, gaining valuable insights from social leaders across the country on topics such as energy transition, dynamics of the hydrocarbon sector, popular economy, and environmental protection. In collaboration with Hocol, we coordinated the roadmap for prior consultations with the Alto Unuma Meta Indigenous Reserve of Puerto Gaitán and the indigenous communities of Ortega in the Department of Tolima. These consultations are crucial to modify Rubiales fields' environmental license and the drilling injector wells project, respectively.

Last but not least, we volunteered in revitalizing public spaces, conducting pedagogical activities for the responsible use of plastic, and installing a children's playground with seven tons of recycled plastic. Now, I pass the floor to Maria Paula Camacho, who will enlighten us on the accomplishments in corporate governance and responsibility.

Maria Paula Camacho (VP of Legal Affairs)

Thank you, Diana. As part of our commitment to the energy transition and in line with the Ecopetrol Group's strategy and ESG plan, the meeting of the Ecopetrol's general shareholders meeting, which was attended by more than 3,500 people, was the first carbon-neutral general shareholders meeting of Ecopetrol. In addition, we highlight the following points: There was a 3-ton decrease in CO2 emissions in the 2023 shareholders meeting compared to the 2022 meeting. Those emissions were offset through the purchase of bonds from REDD+ project, which prevented degradation and deforestation of native forest in Bajo Calima and Bahía Málaga in Buenaventura. The proper disposal of the waste generated during the event was warranted to provide a second life to the different objects used in the meeting. The printing of itinerary items and handouts decreased.

Finally, creating employment for mothers who are heads of households through Pelanas, which oversaw the production of the iguanas given as a gift to the shareholders. During the meeting, the following points, among others, were reviewed and approved. First, the annual corporate governance report and the integrated management report for 2022. Through these reports, the structure adopted to respond to the challenges of the 2040 strategy was revealed to the stakeholders through the definition of 3 business lines: hydrocarbons, low emission solutions, and transmission and toll roads. Likewise, the results of the 2022 financial year and the advances in the TESG pillar were revealed. Second, the board of directors member election for the remainder of the 2021-2025 period. This board has 7 independent members, 6 director who continue in office, and for the first time, we have 3 women in this executive body.

Finally, tax auditors' election and fees allocation for the remainder of the period 2021-2025. It is also worth noting the appointment of Ricardo Roa Barragán as the new CEO of the company. This election and appointment process was carried out in accordance with the succession policy of the CEO of Ecopetrol and with the support of an international headhunter firm. We highlight after the approval of the 2023 Annual Human Rights Plan that Ecopetrol continued the survey of human rights risk associated with the business activity in the operational areas. This exercise is carried out with a two-way perspective, and it involved employees, suppliers, and community leaders in the first place. I will now pass the floor to Yeimy Baez to elaborate on the milestones Low Emission Solutions.

Yeimy Baez (VP of Low Emission Solutions)

Thanks, Maria Paula Camacho.

In the Q1 of 2023, we achieved significant milestones in our portfolio of low emissions energy solutions. The natural gas and LPG business reported an EBITDA of $267 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 7%, with an EBITDA margin of 59%. During the Q1 of 2023, we reached more than 160,000 equivalent barrels per day of gas and LPG production combined, attributed mainly to the growth in our US operations, maintaining a 22% share of gas and LPG in the group's production mix.

Alongside with the transportation companies, we achieved a historic milestone for Colombia by beginning bidirectionality of the gas pipeline in the Barrancabermeja-Ballena section thanks to the contractual management and the Cusiana field volumes, thus allowing us to connect our field with northern part of the country, which in turn increases the reliability, optionality, and security of the natural gas supply in this area. As part of our ongoing effort to improve community well-being, we continue growing our Social Gas Program, benefiting during this quarter 2,400 families from rural communities in Arauca. Likewise, in the Energy Communities Project Portfolio Program, more than 20 initiatives were highlighted, and 4 of them were put forward to be developed in Putumayo, Meta, Nariño, and Guajira.

In renewable energy sources, the operation of our solar farms, Brisas, Castilla, San Fernando, and the small hydroelectric power plant, Cantayús, allows us to reduce 6,400 tons of CO₂ equivalent emissions, making significant progress to our decarbonization goals, as well as reported savings of more than COP 6,600 million, increasing 127% versus Q1, 2022. On the same topic, as part of the group's decarbonization strategy and commitment to the energy transition, we signed an agreement with TotalEren in January of this year for deconstruction of a 100 megawatt solar farm in the Rubiales field, which will reduce more than 24,000 tons of CO₂ emissions per year.

As per our continued commitment to incorporate new non-conventional renewable energy sources to the group's portfolio, we formed an alliance with EDF Colombia and Refocosta to build a forest biomass plant with a 25 MW capacity in the municipality of Villanueva, Casanare. This energy will be supplied to the group through an agreement with our trader, Gecelca. A reduction of 70,000 tons of CO₂ emissions per year is expected, additional to the benefit of reforesting an area of 13,600 acres. A memorandum of understanding was signed with Baker Hughes and the Central Hidroeléctrica de Caldas to study the feasibility of developing a geothermal well in the Nereidas Valley. This will enable short- and medium-term possibilities for geothermal energy generation.

In terms of hydrogen, two projects have advanced to their final phase of maturity, in which it is expected to conclude the development studies alongside with world-class strategic allies. Once conclude, the projects will add a capacity of 60 megawatts each of electrolysis with PEM, proton exchange membrane technology, powered by renewable energy sources. The Ecopetrol Group continues to advance in sustainable mobility hydrogen projects. In March, through the partnership with Fenoco, Fanalca, and Green Móvil, the first comprehensive test with green hydrogen in Colombian public transportation was launched. This includes hydrogen production, compression, and storage systems, a charging station, and a 50-passenger bus that will be incorporated in the Bogotá Integrated Public Transportation System during the Q2 of 2023. In addition, at the Caribbean Innovation and Technology Center in Cartagena, the first vehicle powered by hydrogen with a Colombian license plate number in the country was introduced.

The Toyota Mirai is operational, and the green hydrogen production, storage, and recharging system will be available for the innovation and entrepreneurship ecosystem in the Q4 of this year. I now turn the floor over to Alberto, who will speak about the main operational milestones.

Alberto Consuegra Granger (COO)

Thank you, Jaime. 2023 started with 2 exploration successes in wells, which were drilled at the end of 2022 and tested during this quarter. At Recetor Norte-1, 100% operated by Hocol and located southeast of Montería. Gas was evidenced in the Ciénaga de Oro formation. Extensive testing is expected to begin in Q4 of 2023. The Tororoi 1 well operated by GeoPark in partnership with our subsidiary, Hocol, located in Villanueva, Casanare, confirmed the presence of 35 degrees API light crude oil in the middle formation. At the end of the quarter, the initial tests were completed, and the well is currently undergoing extensive testing in order to evaluate its potential. In the Q1, we advanced 32% on the 2023 drilling campaign.

We finished drilling 8 exploratory wells out of a plan of 25, 6 located in the Eastern Plains, Llanos Orientales, and 2 wells located in the Piedemonte foothills. Regarding offshore exploration activity in Colombia, we continue to advance with the evaluation and the appraisal plan of the Uchuva and Gorgon discoveries in the Colombian Caribbean. In addition, contracting is underway to start drilling the Orca Norte 1 appraisal well, estimated for the end of this year. In order to identify prospects and mature new opportunities, Ecopetrol acquired 312 square kilometers of seismic data with the Flamencos 3D program located in the municipalities of Puerto Wilches and Sabana de Torres in Santander in the Middle Magdalena Valley Basin. This program generated more than 1,100 direct and indirect jobs. Please, let's move on to the next slide.

On the production front, we reached 719,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day during the 1st quarter of the year, maintaining robust results despite security situations in some regions. We highlight the incremental production of Caño Sur and our Permian subsidiary, and also the improved performance of Rubiales, supported mainly by the pressure support project with reuse of production water, which allowed us to grow sustainably and contribute to the water neutrality goal. Additionally, during the period, production was mainly affected by security issues, with an impact of 6,800 barrels of oil equivalent per day due to the closure of the Capachos field from January 21st to April 15, and the shutdown of the Gibraltar gas plant during March.

Because of blockades by third parties in the Quifa, Caño Sur, and Rubiales fields, with an impact of 2,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and also because of lower gas demand from external customers compared to estimates. It should be noted that exploration and production segment contributed with 48.6% of the group's EBITDA, with an EBITDA margin of 42% being a profitable and sustainable segment that leverages the energy transition. By the end of the year, production is expected to be leveraged mainly in the Permian, Caño Sur, Rubiales, Piedemonte, Quifa, and Arauca assets. There are also external factors that could affect production, such as the El Niño phenomenon and environmental and public order situations that are constantly being monitored. Let's go to the next slide, please.

In the transportation segment for the Q1 of the year, we obtained exceptional financial and operating results. Volumes transported during the Q1 of the year increased by more than 49,000 barrels per day compared to the same period of the previous year, mainly due to higher crude oil production in the Llanos area and the increase of transported volume of refined products. In addition, for the third consecutive quarter, we achieved record multipurpose pipeline transported volume of approximately 306,300 barrels per day. On the financial front, we highlight the historical quarterly result of the segment with an EBITDA of COP 3.2 trillion.

In order to ensure the evacuation of production from the Caño Limón field after the Caño Limón Coveñas pipeline was affected, three reversion cycles of the Bicentenario Pipeline were carried out with an evacuated volume of approximately 662,000 barrels. On the other hand, due to the contingency registered in the southwest of the country after the natural disaster that blocked a part of the Pan American Highway, which among its effects generated fuel shortages, the Ecopetrol Group acted immediately in order to enable new routes to meet the demand for products in this area of the country, developing, among others, a plan for cabotage from the Buenaventura Maritime Terminal to the Tumaco terminal. This included the construction of facilities in the Buenaventura station and terminal.

Thanks to the implementation of these adjustments, the flow increased to 2,000 barrels per hour, reducing tanker loading times to 22 effective hours. Under this strategy, during this quarter, 11 vessels have been loaded, which have allowed the supply of approximately 279,000 barrels of gasoline and diesel by the Ecopetrol Group. During the Q1, Cenit completed the construction and startup of the Jumbo TK-8000 storage tank with a nominal capacity of 60,000 barrels, which is expected to reduce stoppages due to high and low inventories, eliminate the payment of tank truck freight, and allow the capture of growing demand for fuels. Let's go to the next slide, please.

In the downstream segment, we obtain a historical quarterly re-record in consolidated throughput of 412,000 barrels per day, as well as in the production of diesel, gasoline, and jet for domestic supply, complying with Resolution 40103 that establishes the quality limits for fuels in Colombia. Likewise, the second highest quarter was achieved, both in integrated refining gross margin of $22.6 per barrel and the segment's EBITDA of COP 3.2 trillion, where the contribution of the Cartagena Refinery of COP 1.76 trillion stands out, leveraged mainly by the entry of the Cartagena Crude Oil Plants Interconnection Project from the Q3 of 2022.

In the 1st quarter of 2023, we continued to make progress in TESG, highlighting the progress and the development and maturation of such projects as green hydrogen in both refineries, fuel quality baseline in Barrancabermeja, and improvements in the Naphtha Hydrotreater Unit in Cartagena. The Barrancabermeja and Cartagena Refineries. The contribution of Ecopetrol certification as the 1st mining energy company in Latin America to verify its water footprint with Ecometrica. In the ESG study, Merco Responsables 2022 sector rankings, Esenttia ranked 12th in the industrial sector in Colombia. Based on the growth and diversification study developed by Ecodiesel, it was approved to start the maturation of the expansion project to double the diesel capacity. Let's move on to the next slide, please.

During the Q1 of the year, efficiencies of COP 905.4 billion were achieved within the framework of an integral strategy focused on mitigating the inflationary effects that the global economy continues to experience. Lifting cost was $8.78 per barrel, increasing by $0.12 per barrel versus the Q1 of 2022, mainly due to inflationary effects on energy tariffs and operation support services, with a lower impact due to efficiencies achieved of $0.2 per barrel. The cumulative average cost per transported barrel as of March 2023 was $2.58 per barrel, decreasing by $0.19 per barrel versus the one recorded at the end of the Q1 of 2022, mainly explained by higher average devaluation of the peso against the dollar and the effect of the additional volume transported.

The refining cash cost indicator was $3.69 per barrel, showing a decrease of 18% compared to the one evidenced in 1Q 2022, mainly due to the exchange rate effect. Additionally, in the Q1 of the year, the total unit cost decreased by 7.4% versus the same period of the previous year. This is mainly explained by a higher exchange rate and an increase in traded volumes. This demonstrates the effectiveness of the company's policies to face the inflationary pressures in the sector. I will pass the floor to Jaime Caballero, who will talk about the main milestones of the transmission and roads business line and the financial results of the Ecopetrol Group.

Jaime Caballero Uribe (CFO)

Thanks, Alberto. In the transmission and toll roads business line, ISA delivered positive operating and financial results, mainly leveraged on the sustained growth of the energy business in Brazil. This was reflected in a 10% contribution of this business line to the group's revenues, 15% to EBITDA, and 4% to net income at the end of the Q1. The following milestones stand out in the quarter. Firstly, the award of 13 extensions in Brazil and 8 connections, 5 in Brazil, 2 in Colombia, and 1 in Peru, which together will add 334 km of circuit to the network. Secondly, the entry into operation of 1 reinforcement and 15 improvements in ISA CTEEP. Thirdly, the entry into partial commercial operation of IE Itaúna with the right to 66% of its annual regulated revenue, equivalent to $8 million.

ISA will advance in the construction of 31 energy transmission projects, which represent more than 4,840 km of additional circuits to the network, and which will generate revenues exceeding $260 million when they come into operation. The construction stage of Ruta del Loa continues with an extension of 136 km, which is expected to come into operation in 2024. Let's please move to the next slide to see the main financial indicators. During the Q1 2023, the Ecopetrol Group continued to deliver outstanding indicators amidst a more challenging price scenario compared to that observed in 2022. ROACE was 17.8%, underpinned by the last 12 months of operating income, which have benefited from a favorable Brent-peso environment, strong operating performance, and solid results in all business lines.

That result partially offset higher taxes and the increase in capital employed. EBITDA margin was 45.9%, mainly explained by the good operating performance across our business lines and solid product realization prices, which offset the increase in operating costs and expenses associated mainly with a higher exchange rate and higher inflation. Regarding EBITDA by business line, the higher contribution of transmission and low emission solutions stands out, in line with the Ecopetrol Group's strategy for 2040, which aims at an EBITDA participation of these businesses of between 30% and 50% of the group's total. The gross debt to EBITDA indicator stood at 1.5x below the 2023 target of 2.1x.

The debt-to-equity ratio increased to 1.2x, mainly due to the 16% decrease in equity associated with the recognition of the dividends declared at the general shareholders' meeting, while debt increased by only 1.1%. The net income breakeven closed at $32 per barrel, mainly explained by higher sales volumes and better product spreads. Please, let's move on to the next slide. At the end of the Q1 of 2023, the Ecopetrol Group recorded a consolidated cash position of COP 17.7 trillion, explained by, first, an operating cash flow generation of COP 2.1 trillion, including an increase in working capital due to the account receivable associated to the Fuel Prices Stabilization Fund, FEPC, for its Spanish acronym, and payments of accounts payables and current taxes during the period.

The above was partially offset by the decrease in inventories in transit given their deliveries during the quarter. Secondly, the outflow of investment resources for organic activities for a total of COP 5.2 trillion, mainly associated to Ecopetrol S.A., Permian, and ISA. Thirdly, the inflow of financing resources, as well as principal and interest payments that generated a debt service of COP 2.2 trillion. The final cash balance is composed of cash and cash equivalents for COP 15.5 trillion, and a portfolio of short and long-term investments for COP 2.2 trillion. Regarding the management of debt maturities for 2023, the Ecopetrol Group continues to advance in its strategy to refinance the outstanding balance of $1.6 billion through tools such as credit operations with local and international banks and bond issuances in the capital markets.

Regarding the FEPC balance, the account receivable at the end of the Q1 closed at COP 34.2 trillion, reflecting an accumulation of COP 7.9 trillion during the quarter. The Ecopetrol Group's collection expectations assume the offsetting of the dividend approved for the majority shareholder of around COP 21.6 trillion at the general shareholders' meeting against the balance of the FEPC debt for the second, third, and part of the Q4 of 2022 with Ecopetrol S.A. once progress is made with the Ministry of Finance and the respective resolutions are issued. The Ecopetrol Group continues working with the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit to define further mechanisms that allow settling the outstanding amount for 2022 of approximately COP 4.8 trillion once the dividend compensation is made.

Finally, in the Q1 of the year, the Ecopetrol Group's organic investments amounted to COP 6 trillion. The hydrocarbon business line accounted for 65% of that amount throughout the integrated chain, both in Colombia and in the United States and Brazil. In the low-emission solutions business line, investments totaled COP 0.7 trillion, including investments in renewable energy to underpin self-generation, hydrogen, and energy efficiency projects, as well as investments associated with the exploration and development of gas. Investments in the transmission and toll roads business line amounted to COP 1.4 trillion and correspond to the projects executed by ISA in energy transmission, toll roads, and telecommunications.

These investments allowed progress in the construction of electric circuits and in improvements aimed at increasing the reliability of the existing net, as well as in the Ruta del Loa, Ruta de la Araucanía, and Ruta del Maipo road projects in Chile. Let's move on to the next slide, please. Today, we can start to see how progress in the Ecopetrol Group's TESG agenda leverages value generation in the long term. In the Q1, through science, technology and innovation as an accelerator of TESG, we achieved a value of $177 million through highly relevant technological initiatives such as the launch into space in partnership with the Colombian Air Force of the FAC-SAT-2 Chiribiquete satellite, which helps monitor greenhouse gas emissions over the Colombian geography and allows for better interpretation of data and images to define the country's carbon sink capacity.

In line with the net zero aspiration, the group announced a new target of reducing methane emissions by 45% by 2025, and 55% by 2030. During the Q1, we achieved emissions reductions due to operational efficiencies that bring us close to 1 million tons reduced. For the water neutrality target by 2045, we have identified a 66% reduction in freshwater withdrawal for industrial use, zero discharges to freshwater bodies, and to compensate the remainder by 2045. During the Q1 of 2023, progress was made in reducing water withdrawal by 651,000 barrels per day, and initiatives continue to mature to reduce discharges, mainly in projects like Castilla, Apiay, and Suria, which will mature in the 2025-2030 period.

This not only contributes to the water neutrality target, also brings us closer to being less dependent on this resource, which is fundamental for the sustainability of the business over time. In local development, more than 6,000 new non-oil related jobs were created, which puts us on track towards meeting the target of 25,000 new non-oil related jobs by 2024. This is in addition to the progress made in local social impact in the regions where we operate, previously covered by Diana Escobar. In corporate governance, the Ecopetrol Group continues to make progress in transparency and sustainability reporting exercises, substantially improving its rating in the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices and the CDP, formerly the Carbon Disclosure Project on Climate Change, positioning the group as a global leader in these two recognized standards.

Finally, to leverage the group's strategy, the corporate vice presidency of finance has been transformed into the corporate vice presidency of finance and sustainable value, which will allow all the more effective and efficient financial support to the Ecopetrol Group's profitable and sustainable growth in the energy transition, which ensures capital discipline, cost efficiency, and cash protection underpinning the continuity of competitive value generation throughout the group. I now turn the floor over to Ricardo for his closing remarks.

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President and CEO)

Thanks, Jaime. To close, I would like to highlight that we have achieved a strong start of the year with 2023 plan that is still on track. Good progress in the energy transition front and in line with the pillars of the 2040 strategy. We have continued to expand into new geographic regions and strengthen our relationships with our investor and business partners. We are excited about the future with many opportunities ahead, leveraged by strong corporate governance. We'll continue to work hard to create value for our shareholders, employees, and communities. Thanks to everyone who is participating in this earnings call today for your time. With this, I open the question and answer session.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you want to ask your question, please type in the chat the number 1 and follow the instructions. Before we begin, I will give the floor to Ecopetrol's CEO, Ricardo Roa.

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President and CEO)

Good morning, everybody, thank you again. Before we start the question and answer section, I would like to thank you again for being here. As all of you know, I joined Ecopetrol two weeks ago, and this is my first conference call. This is a complex industry. During the past weeks, I have been working hard with the team on getting acquainted with the details of each business line. I must mention that I have found a deeply technical, experienced, and enthusiastic team. I will happily answer your questions regarding my general vision for the company's strategy, our priorities, and how we will work with the national government, always within the institutional framework to continue generation value for all our shareholders. I will, of course, rely on the team to provide detailed information about other topics and recent performance.

I also would like to share with you a little bit more about myself. I am technical and electromechanical. I am mechanical engineer from the Universidad Nacional of Colombia, and hold a specialization in management engineering systems. I have the privilege of the over 30 years of professional experience, mainly in the energy sector. During the last 20 years, I have held high-level positions in energy and gas companies in Colombia, Peru, Guatemala, and Honduras. Throughout my career, I have led studies and initiatives on projects about energy generation and energy efficiency and lead strategic transformations in the companies I worked with. My experience include the CEO role in the Grupo de Energía de Bogotá, President of Transportadora de Gas Internacional, TGI, and General Manager of Empresa Energía Honduras.

I also was the manager of the Electrificadora de Santander, an electricity distribution company, the manager of the energy and ethanol business in a sugar mill and refinery company in the Valley of Cauca. Regarding my vision for Ecopetrol, I want to bring all of this experience in the gas and power sector to the company to strengthen the implementation of the 2040 strategy. My first message for all of you is my entire endorsement of this strategy. We will remain focused on growing the hydrocarbon business line and permanently monitor the market conditions for the needed adjustments for value generation. At the same time, we will continue working to take advantage of the energy transition opportunities and contribute to a just, well-balanced, and responsible energy transition in Colombia and the regions in which we have operations.

I value Ecopetrol's positive impact in the communities closer to our assets. I hope to see that our strategy does not lose sight of contribution to poverty reduction and wealth increment of in those region where we operate. This is fundamental for Colombia's environmental, social, and fiscal performance in the long term. Finally, I want to share with you that we continue working closely with the national government to look for structural solutions for the FEPC deficit, which are sustainable from a fiscal perspective and maintain Ecopetrol's value proposition to all shareholders. In addition, internally, we are going to work using technology to create more agile processes, bringing higher international standard. Let's continue with the question and answer session, please.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, Mr. Roa. We will start with the questions. Our first question is from Bruno Montanari of Morgan Stanley. Mr. Montanari, you may ask right now.

Bruno Montanari (Executive Director of Equity Research)

Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Ricardo, very welcome to Ecopetrol, and here's hoping that the company continues to follow and deliver its strategy. I have three questions. The first one, it seems very clear that the company is accelerating and really focusing on energy transition. I wanted to compare that with hydrocarbons, right? The recent news flow in the country seems to indicate that new exploration activities and even regular drilling activities will be much more limited going forward. Along with the fracking ban, how comfortable is Ecopetrol that it can sustain its production level in the coming years?

With the mature nature of its oil fields, isn't there a risk that only its secondary and tertiary recovery is not enough to offset the natural production decline? The second question is about your commitment to the Shell JV in the U.S., and how does that compare with the philosophy, if you will, of not being involved with fracking activities? The third and last question is about the evolution of FEPC in the quarter. For us, it sounded like the $2 billion increase looked a bit surprising, taking into consideration the behavior of international oil prices and the domestic prices in Colombia. I was wondering if you could help us reconcile why the balance increased that much in the quarter.

Then how the company sees the funding or the settlement of the fund on top of the COP 21.6 trillion that is already on the budget. You still have about COP 3 trillion or COP 4 trillion from the 2022 values, and another almost COP 8 trillion from 2023. Wondering if you have visibility on how that gets worked out. Thank you very much.

Alberto Consuegra Granger (COO)

Good morning, Bruno. This is Alberto Consuegra. Thanks for the questions. I will take questions 1 and 2. With regards to exploration, as you might recall, we have said that our 2040 strategy is based in growing our production beyond 2030. This is supported in existing EMP contracts, where we have about 265 exploration opportunities. Our 2023-2025 plan includes quite a bit of investment in exploration, taking advantage of those opportunities. Particularly in 2023, we have 25 exploration wells, out of which 8 already have been drilled. We continue seeing exploration in our portfolio as vital. Part of our resources will come from exploration in the future.

If we need to have a conversation with the government about future exploration contracts, we'll have it, particularly if we see that the we need to replace oil production beyond 2030 for to maintain the throughput that our refineries need. That's in relation with exploration. When we talk about EOR, what I can tell you is that this is still very important. It, it represents about 38%-40% of our total production. When we look at our reserve portfolio, as well as our contingent resources, most of them will come from EOR, particularly from the Castilla and Chichimene areas, where we see water injection and as well as air injection projects. We are beginning pressure support, water pressure support projects also in Rubiales. We continue to inject gas to support pressure in our Piedemonte Foothill portfolio.

EOR becomes quite important, and we will still have a good share of our production in the future years. With regard to Permian and unconventionals, we recognize that we will have to practically suspend, you know, any activity in terms of unconventionals in Colombia. Permian is quite important, continues to be a strategic asset. It's one of the most profitable assets that we have in our portfolio. From the environmental standpoint, it's particularly very good. It exceeds the environmental standards that we have. We continue increasing our presence there. As you might remind, last year we acquired a position in the Delaware Basin, and we increased our share in the Midland Basin. When you talk about results, $142 million EBITDA for this quarter.

We're talking about 80% and above 80% EBITDA margin in this business. It's one of the future assets that will represent the cash flow that the business, the energy transition will require in the future. Very strategic, very fundamental in terms of what it represents in importance for the strategy in Ecopetrol.

Jaime Caballero Uribe (CFO)

Hi, Bruno. This is Jaime. Good to hear you. I'm gonna take the third question around FEPC and how it has progressed over the last.

Over the last quarter. I'll quote you on your question. It seems to me that you had a lesser expectation around the balance. In our case, we actually. We were not surprised. I think we need to remember that there are several elements to the formula. You have an element that is the international price, if you will, the reference price. You also have what is happening, of course, domestically, and what is happening with the foreign exchange rate. That's what might explain the surprise that you got on your end.

Directionally, what I would tell you is, while we had on one hand, we had a positive momentum in terms of the balance in that there were a number of adjustments being made on gasoline prices by the government. They're actually quite material. They are actually higher than what they had budgeted before. I think that speaks a lot about their commitment to the balance. On the other end, some of that gets actually offset by the foreign exchange movements. You need to take that into consideration, you know, when you do those numbers. The bigger message that I would tell you is that when you see the behavior of the accumulation of FEPC, it is decreasing.

You know, last year, there was a moment in time when we were actually accruing a balance of about COP 3.6 trillion per month. Our accrual rate now is at around COP 2 trillion. It's significantly less than it was before. Going forward, that will move depending again on those three variables. I think on the diesel end, there is some pressure because diesel prices continue to be very robust, so there is some pressure on FEPC on the diesel end. On the gasoline end, there is a lot of relief on one end because international prices have softened a bit, but on the other end, particularly because of the interventions that the government has made on domestic pricing.

Beyond that, we're going to have fluctuations around, you know, the FX. That's kind of my attempt to reconcile, you know, the behavior in 1Q. With regards to what can we expect going forward on the settlement, you know, the big element on the settlement of the balance is the e-exchange, if you will, between the dividends and the, you know, the government's dividend share versus the balance. That's COP 21.6 trillion, right? That will leave a balance pending for 2022 of about COP 5 trillion. That's the remaining balance. It is not a big number. There are two or three mechanisms to deal with that. One, and probably the most likely mechanism is going to be around budget surpluses that the national government has.

The law allows them to use budget surpluses that you have on other areas towards FEPC. That's I would say that's the base case. There's two alternatives to that. One is that you actually create a new budget allocation to that. That is a little bit complicated because it actually needs to go to Congress and all that kind of stuff. The second one is extraordinary dividends, which again are gonna be subject to the performance of the company, the cash availability that we have, and obviously our commitment to deliver on the existing plan. That's the outlook that we're seeing. I hope this is helpful. Thank you.

Bruno Montanari (Executive Director of Equity Research)

Super. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Badr of Barclays. Mr. Badr, you may ask.

Badr El Moutawakil (Analyst)

Thank you so much. Thank you so much for taking my question. Congratulations on the earnings. Congratulations, Mr. Roa, for the nominations as CEO. I have two questions. Some of them were partially answered by Mr. Caballero on the previous question. The first one is to Mr. Roa. If you can let us know if you've had any recent discussions with Hacienda about some of the recent topics that were mentioned. The first one is the FEPC. Obviously as Mr. Caballero said earlier, there is still a balance pending with Hacienda around COP 5 trillion, if I recall. You know, obviously there are surpluses, but the decision of the payment of this balance will really play a massive role on Ecopetrol's funding.

Have you had any discussions about with the new Ministry of Finance about the potential payment in terms of cash for this COP 5 trillion deficit? My second related question with Hacienda is that have you also had any discussions with the Ministry of Finance about the announcements about the changes in diesel and gasoline prices? We understand for now that the Ministry of Mines and Energy has little power over Ecopetrol, but just wondering if you are in agreement about the future of diesel and gasoline prices with the Ministry of Finance. My second question is related to CapEx. This was also partially answered about the focus on E&P.

I was just wondering if you could break down the CapEx for 2023 and 2024, with just to see between upstream, midstream, downstream, ESA, energy transition, just to see how we're thinking about it. We still think about a CapEx plan for six and a half billion dollars, mostly geared toward upstream. How are you gonna finance the CapEx growth this year? Is that going to be with new debt? My last question is regarding your healthy cash levels. Obviously, you know, you have a decent cash balance at the moment.

I was just wondering if you had any plans of using part of the cash to repurchase some of the low cash price bonds on the market right now with some of the long-dated bonds trading, you know, around $0.63, $0.64 on the dollar before potential issuance, or are you planning to use part of the cash for potential M&A? Thank you so much for taking my questions.

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President and CEO)

Thank you, Badr. Ecopetrol is part of the working group with the national government, Ministry of Mines and Energy, and Ministry of Finances, to support the definition of initiatives at the regulatory, commercial, financial, and operational levels, and mitigate the impact that it currently generates for the country. The following stand out evaluation of technological tools for the targeting of subsidies, different tiered prices for industrial consumption segments, and broader control mechanisms over the use and destination of volumes with re-regulated prices, among others.

Jaime Caballero Uribe (CFO)

Badr, this is Jaime here. To complement Ricardo's kinda, you know, policy statement, I guess, around this is, you know, we are in an active discussion with the government on this. Actually, President Ricardo and myself are actually meeting the Minister of Finance this afternoon. We have a meeting precisely to talk about this. You have heard, and I'm sure you have seen the public statements about the Minister made this last Monday, which is basically a very clear statement around the requirement to have a competitive compensation framework for producers to make sure that there are the right incentives to produce in Colombia, and to make sure that the fiscal balance is unaltered in any move that's made.

Basically, our expectation on this, general expectation, is fuel prices will continue to increase. Minister Bonilla has been very clear about that. That's something that we expect. I think that the track record that we have seen over the last 9 months of President Petro's government is very clear that they are committed to those price increases. We are expecting them to continue. That's the first thing that I'd say. I think the other element that we're seeing, and in line with what Ricardo just mentioned, is a very aggressive agenda to implement measures that, without affecting the compensation to the producer, reduce the rate of accrual of that balance. That's where, for instance, focalization of subsidies comes in, right?

We actually have done international studies on this regard. This has been done elsewhere. Philosophically, where we are, and we share this view with the government, is that the totality of society doesn't need to benefit from these subsidies, only certain parts do, and that's where the subsidies need to be, you know, going towards. In any case, directionally, that's what we're seeing. That's what we're seeing and we're happy to share kind of that alignment with the government. With regards to CapEx, you know, I think you heard President Roa in his introductory, you know, presentation being very clear about the commitment towards the 2040 strategy and the plan. This year's plan has a target of being anywhere between $5.6 billion-$6.6 billion.

That is unchanged. That is unchanged. About 65% of that is in hydrocarbons, I'd say, you know, in our, in our historical hydrocarbon business, with an aim to grow production, which is our target. It's our aim, and it's our target to the end of the decade. The remainder of that is going into the, into the new business lines, you know, the business lines associated to transmission and to lower emissions. There are no changes to that. 2024 is very similar to that. You know, the general composition of CapEx breakdown is not changing in 2024 either.

I think The conversation that President Roa has invited us to join is a conversation about can we be more efficient in the deployment of capital, both in the hydrocarbon business and in the lower emission business, in a way that we can do more with the same amount. That is the challenge that he's placed to us. I believe that we are gonna recalibrate our efficiency program, and we're gonna establish probably newer targets around that. And we are gonna find ways when we look at the portfolio of lower emissions and hydrocarbons to make sure that both businesses can grow in an efficient way.

We are not seeing headline numbers changing at this time, nor are we seeing the capital allocation between the businesses changing at this time. Thank you. The next question comes from Luiz Carvalho.

Sorry, just wait a second. I didn't cover the question around cash. That I think we had, like, four questions in there. Sorry, Badr. What can we expect in cash? No change to our cash management, basically. We have a very healthy operational cash generation at this time, and that cash is being fundamentally directed towards the increased capital intensity of the business where we wanna grow production. That's where it's going. In terms of debt, we are refinancing the balance that we had for this year, $1.6 billion. That's well on track. I spoke about that in my general remarks. We're not seeing changes on cash. That's the headline message. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Luiz Carvalho of UBS. Mr. Carvalho, go ahead.

Luiz Carvalho (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, Ricardo, Jaime, and all the executives. Thanks for taking the question. If I may, allow to, I don't know, 3 questions here. The first one to Ricardo. Ricardo, you recently joined the company, Ecopetrol. You know, it's a super important company to, of course, to Colombia and to Colombians, right? So just trying to get a sense in terms of, what would be the, let's say, your main goals, looking 3, 4 years ahead. What will be the main achievements that you would like to, I don't know, to potentially be proud of, in, I don't know, in the 3, I don't know, 2, 3 years horizon? The second question, it's about, of course, capital allocation, and I would like to come back to maybe Jaime's answer.

This is, I don't know, depending on how we look, right? I mean, of course, the oil price and so on, there are some limitations about what can be done, right? If you penalize, for example, the company too much on the fuel prices, as a consequence, there will be, I would say, lower capability from the company to pay dividends, which, you know, it's also important to the Colombian Government as a controlling shareholder. In the end of the day, and of course, will be some limitations on the investment as well. I'm just trying to get a sense in terms of what would be the capital allocation priorities among these three lines, right?

Let's say the potential, I wouldn't put subsidies, but let's say the subsidies for the population on the fuel prices/the investments/the dividends to the government. Right? The last question, it's about, let's say the potential discussion back a couple, maybe a couple years ago, where the Congress of the country basically approved the government to actually to sell 8% of the stake in the company, right? Is that a discussion that you think that would have some room in order to be, you know, be back on the table right now, and what would be your thoughts on this? Thank you.

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President and CEO)

Okay. Thank you, Mr. Carvalho. About the first question, the current strategy is solid and robust and responds directionally to the challenges of the energy transition. If adjustments are required along the way, these will be carried out within the framework of the company's strong corporate governance. We will evaluate opportunities to accelerate new business associated with the energy transition, but always in accordance with the capital discipline, cost efficiency and sustainable competitive returns for all the shareholders. No changes are expected in the 2023 investments plan announced in November of the last year.

Jaime Caballero Uribe (CFO)

Luiz, hi. Good to hear you. This is Jaime here. I'm gonna take your second question and possibly your third question. You know, your question around CapEx allocation. You know, basically, our CapEx allocation priorities reflect delivery of the plan, right? That's the way kind of to think about it. We will do whatever it takes to deliver on the existing plan. That hasn't changed, right? In that line, the first thing that we wanna finance is the investment program, you know, which is, you know, around $6 billion. That's a way kind of to think about it.

You know that it's a range, but, you know, as we have discussed this with the board of directors, there is a total consensus around the company and with the government that investment is required to sustain the shareholder value in the short, medium, and long term. That is well understood. There is full support to that at every level of government and with the board. So under that light, the first element of how we think about this is we need to sustain the growth programs that we have and that we have announced. Of course, in that context of growth, there's a big element of new opportunities in the energy transition that we have already declared and talked about. So that's the first priority.

The second priority, you know, once we cover that, once we cover making sure that CAPEX is funded, the second priority is a robust debt management, you know. The strategy to 2040 has a capital structure. We have said that we will not surpass a leverage ratio of 2.5x debt to EBITDA. That is at low prices. We remain committed to that. You know, we have discussed extensively with the board, and that includes the new members and President Roa, the leverage component that we have. I would say that the general guideline on this is that absolute debt levels in Ecopetrol are in a good place. Leverage ratios are competitive with the rest of the industry. We need to be very thoughtful about incremental debt going forward.

There is room for incremental debt. There is some room for that. Our performance is allowing us to do that. And we will evaluate that, you know, as circumstances arise, you know, in that structure of priorities. And then the third component, of course, once you cover investing in the future, and making sure that, of course, we have a safe and reliable operation, which is part of what we do in CapEx, and once we cover our debt service, the third priority is, of course, dividend distributions. And, as you're aware, we have a dividend policy. When we have extraordinary performance, we have extraordinary dividends, and we will consider that as our, you know, performance and as our cash availability allows to do that.

At this time, we already have declared what is gonna be our, you know, dividend payment for this year. There are no plans to change that anytime soon, but this is dynamic, you know, and as things change in time, we will continue to review that. I would say those are the general elements to that. You mention in your question, you know, the FEPC role on this. The way that we think about FEPC is, FEPC is a constraint that we need to deal with, and that's what we're doing, right? FEPC is not a risk. FEPC is not a surprise. FEPC is part of our operating envelope, like anything else is. As long as we are aligned with the government on this, we shouldn't be concerned. That's what we're seeing.

You know, what we're seeing is a government that has been very consistent about delivering on its commitments on FEPC. With regards to your last question about an eventual float of the company, the regulation, you know, the authorization that we obtained on that regard, originally in 2021 was for 5 years, so that goes to 2026. That is an option that we have in our capital structure that is simply part of the toolkit, and it's something to be reviewed as and when market conditions allow for that. There are no plans in the near term to activate something like that, but if that changes, we will let you know. Thank you very much.

Luiz Carvalho (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you, Jaime, good to talk to you as well. Ricardo, good luck. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Germán Cristancho of Davivienda Corredores. Mr. Cristancho, you may ask.

Germán Cristancho (Head of Research and Strategy)

Hi, good morning, thank you for this call. I have 3 questions. One is regarding oil prices. Oil prices have come down this year, Brent reference is close to 76% a barrel. I would like to know what oil price assumption are you using for the annual budget, if you are planning to change this number for 2023. The second one is maybe for Ricardo, is because the National Hydrocarbons Agency will release their reserves report during May, this information will be very relevant for the energy transition strategy of the country and pending decisions on this matter. What should this report reveal to change your mind in favor of signing or allocating new exploration contracts in Colombia?

The third one, and the last one, is could you please give us an update about the Caribbean Sea operation? When do you expect the gas potential to be incorporated into the reserves of the company?

Jaime Caballero Uribe (CFO)

Germán, how are you? This is Jaime. I'm gonna start with your question about oil prices and then, you know, Presidente Roa is gonna take your questions around. Sorry, I think I missed a question there, but I'm gonna cover oil prices. What assumption are you using for the annual budget? We are working on an assumption of $81 per barrel. That's what we're using. That's our plan assumption this year, and actually for the next three years. We haven't changed that actually. That's what we used for back in November to sanction the plan for this year.

There are no plans to change it at this time. The color that I would give you is that we've looked at the balance between differentials behavior on one end, as in price realizations versus volatility. What we see is that, if you look at the oil price year to date, it seems to be very much near what we planned. No plans to change it.

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President and CEO)

About the second question. Currently in Colombia, Ecopetrol Group, which includes the companies Ecopetrol and Hocol, has 48 exploration contracts signed and 30 exploitation contracts with near fields exploration options. These contracts provide an estimated range between 8 and 10 years of exploratory activity, depending on the results of obtaining the environmental licenses and the viability of executing the projects. To do that, the 2040 strategy is supported by base production and recovery from our current fields, the contribution from Permian and exploration, and the development of prospects that identify in areas already provided by Ecopetrol, both in the Colombian Caribbean and within the country, among which are Jorono and Lorito in Meta, Arantes, Cupiagua XD-45 in the Piedemonte, and Gorgon and Uchuva in the offshore. To more details, please.

Alberto Consuegra Granger (COO)

Just to. Hi, Germán. Good morning, and thanks for the question. Just to complement what Ricardo has said, let me remind you that when we look at our strategy, what we have said is that we're going to grow our production beyond 2030, and that's very much supported in our current portfolio. Since we are not gonna have the wedge of the unconventionals in Colombia, we will probably need to replace those molecules in the future beyond 2030, specifically to support the refining throughput. That's but that will depend very much on the outcome of our current exploration portfolio. That's kind of the response to that question, and I will take the next one regarding the Caribbean Sea operation.

What we have said is that our current business plan, 2023-2025, we're gonna be drilling seven offshore wells beginning at the end of this year, with our commitment well in Orca. Then we will follow with activity in both Uchuva and Gorgon. Provided that we are successful in these three fronts, we are going to expect to see resources coming into reserves, beyond 2026, because we will have to mature, progress, FID, sanction these projects in order to become, you know, reserves. That's kind of the plan that we have currently in our portfolio. A very good point in terms of how are we, you know, taking the operation.

We have created a vice presidency, an offshore vice president, to ensure that we fulfill and comply with the level of activity needed, in the current strategy.

Germán Cristancho (Head of Research and Strategy)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Andrés Duarte of Corficolombiana. Mr. Duarte, go ahead.

Andrés Duarte (Equity Research Director)

Hello, and thank you for taking my questions. I have three short questions. First of all, the best of luck to Mr. Roa and the rest of the team for the year. Okay. Two of the questions might be taking us follow-ups from Germán Cristancho's questions. The first one is related to gas. I wanted to know what's the required average local gas price in order for the offshore gas reserves to become economically viable? That's the first question. The second one is related to hydrogen. In terms of hydrogen volume, what's your production expectation or forecast currently for the next couple of years?

Finally, the third question is related to reserves, proved oil and gas reserves for Ecopetrol. Those reserves related to EOR, enhanced oil recovery. For 2022, the oil addition related to EOR was pretty low when compared to the previous years. This happened despite that around 40% of the current production comes from fields that apply these methods. I wanted to know what's your expectation or what do you expect in the near future for the next year, maybe, in terms of reserves addition coming from EOR? Thank you very much.

Yeimy Baez (VP of Low Emission Solutions)

Thanks, Andrés, for your question. This is Jaime. I will start with the first question related with gas. It is important to highlight that the local gas prices, so the wellhead sales under the current regulations in Colombia are freely set, so they are not tied to any international references or benchmarks. Our view is that our resources in the offshore Caribbean Basin are competitive versus other domestic sources as well as import gas. They are also quite material, and we consider them a potential game changer for Ecopetrol and the country. The price level that is required to make those resources viable, well, it is in line with the current natural gas prices in Colombia.

This outlook of competitiveness will allows us to develop these investments in Ecopetrol for natural gas and therefore, of course, the long-term contracts with fixed local prices, which is pretty much the status quo that we have today in our business, will generate stability and profitability of our investments. Finally, we maintain all the efforts to materialize more synergies to be as efficient as possible by the means of... As Alberto mentioned, we have dedicated teams for these projects. We are protecting the capital that has been allocated for these projects in the three years plan. We are working very close with our world-class partners, Shell and Petrobras. Of course, we are also working in the use of existing infrastructure to process, transfer, and transport these gas volumes to the Colombian market.

For the second question related with our outlook for hydrogen production. Today our production of hydrogen from the methane reformers is about 130,000 tons per year. Remember, 90% of that hydrogen is gray and 10% is blue since we are capturing part of the CO₂ in Barrancabermeja to be sold to local industry. With the proofs of concept that we have delivered, so remember, these are three projects that we have today in operations. One located in the Esenttia facilities, the second one in Bogotá, and the last one in Cartagena. We will produce about 35,000 kilograms per year. It is important to highlight as well that in 2024 we will start the construction of two projects at an industrial scale that have progressed to their final phase in maturity in March 2023.

Once we conclude those two projects, we will add a capacity of 60 megawatts of electrolysis, each of them. This is a production of 18,000 tons of green hydrogen per year. The first molecule is expected to be produced at the end of 2025 or beginning 2026. Finally, we have our target, you know, for the long term. It remains the same, which is 1 million tons per year. This is almost 7 times the capacity that we have today. I hope this leave you with a more detailed context about our hydrogen production outlook and of course, the competitiveness of the offshore gas volumes.

Alberto Consuegra Granger (COO)

Hi, Andrés. With regards to the third question, what I have to say is that we always have in the plan to replace 100% of our reserves every year. When we look specifically at EOR, this is quite important not only in this year but in the years to come. It will represent 40% of our production base and also about 40% of our reserve replacement portfolio. I also have to add that most of our contingent resources, existing contingent resources, come from EOR. You will see that a lot of the CapEx deployed for the next years will be related to increasing our EOR stake.

Andrés Duarte (Equity Research Director)

Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from the chat web. Anne Milne from Bank of America is asking, "What are your expectations for the refining business for the remainder of 2023, given declining global refining margins?

Alberto Consuegra Granger (COO)

Hello, Anne. Thank you for your question regarding the downstream business. You know, as you were able to see, we did have a very strong Q1 with a record crude rate, very good level of EBITDA, and refining margins. When we see the following quarter for this year, we see also, although the refining margins looks to be going down, they still look strong between $15 per barrel ±2. We see in term of refining margins, closing a very good year, probably not as high as the previous year, but still very strong. Our crude rate, you know, we finish with record levels, but we still see the following months, between 400-420 KBD in our refining business.

Probably on the high side of this range. Although we do have a planned turnaround at the Barrancabermeja Refinery in July, this will be only for 30-40 days. Crude rate will come back to maximum levels. In overall, we see a very good rest of the year 2023. A lot of focus on safety in our business, high operational availability, a lot of focus on OpEx performance. You know, in general, very strong 2023 for the rest of the year so far. I hope I was able to answer your question, Anne.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, Mr. Roa. There are no further questions at this time. Thanks to everyone. This concludes our Q1 2023 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect right now.