Ecopetrol - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning. My name is Natalia, and I will be your operator today. Welcome to Ecopetrol's earnings conference call, in which we will discuss the main financial and operating results in 2024. There will be a question-and-answer session at the end of the presentation. Before we begin, it is important to mention that the comments in this call by Ecopetrol's senior management include projections of the company's future performance. These projections do not constitute any commitment as to future results, nor do they take into account risks or uncertainties that could materialize. As a result, Ecopetrol assumes no responsibility in the event that future results are different from the projections shared on this conference call. The call will be led by Mr. Ricardo Roa, CEO of Ecopetrol, Rafael Guzmán, Executive Vice President of Hydrocarbons, Camilo Barco, CFO, and David Riaño, Executive Vice President of Transition Energies.

Thank you for your attention. Mr. Roa, you may begin your conference.

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President)

Welcome to the operational and financial results call of the Ecopetrol Group. We met our operational and financial targets, consolidating a growth path which set the foundations for a solid beginning for 2025 and enabled new possibilities to progress in the energy transition. I want to highlight our reserve replacement results. The reserve replacement ratio was 104%, with the addition of 260 million barrels of oil equivalent of proven reserves, maintaining an average reserve life of 7.6 years. This doubles the addition of proven reserves when compared to 2023, which reflects our commitment to the country's energy security. Around 89% of these results respond to organic management and was complemented by the acquisition of Repsol's 45% stake in the CPO-09 block, which added 32 million barrels of oil equivalent to our reserves.

We renewed the agreement with Oxy to extend the development plan in the Permian Basin, with an estimated investment of $885 million in 2025, including the drilling of 91 development wells. We achieved an average production of 746,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding our annual goal and the highest level of the last nine years. In exploration, we surpassed our 15 wells target by drilling 16 wells, with a three-year exploratory success rate of 43%, where the Sirius-2 well in the Colombian Caribbean offshore stands out as it is a key to expand the country's gas potential. In Midstream, we exceeded our annual goal by transporting an average of 1,119,000 barrels per day. This achievement proves our resilience and operational flexibility, ensuring the supply of crude to the refineries and products to our customers.

Regarding downstream, we faced electrical reliability challenges while successfully completing the annual plan of shutdowns and major maintenance, achieving an average operational availability of 94.5% and reaching an average throughput of 414,000 barrels per day. In the commercial front, our trading subsidiaries in Singapore and Houston continued their support in markets and customer diversification, improving the crude margins when compared to 2023. Let's move to the next slide, please. We accomplished a year of strong economic performance that generates value for our shareholders despite external factors such as exchange rates and inflation, which affect us recurrently. In 2024, we recorded total revenues of COP 133.3 trillion, an EBITDA of COP 54.1 trillion, with an EBITDA margin of 41% and a net income of COP 14.9 trillion. Excluding external factors, net income would be COP 21 trillion, an increase of nearly 10% compared to 2023.

We invested over $6 billion of CapEx, including the acquisition of CPO-09, in line with our annual plan. Additionally, we collected the entire account receivable from the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund of 2023 and celebrated the 63% reduction of the 2024's balance. Efficiencies, which had been important to mitigate cost increase, reached COP 5.3 trillion, surpassing in 43% the year's ambition. Meanwhile, consolidated payments to all our shareholders reached COP 42 trillion. In line with the above, we just announced the proposal for a dividend distribution of COP 214 per share, which will be submitted for approval in the coming general shareholders' meeting on March 28. Let's move to the next slide. In terms of TESG, Ecopetrol obtained the second-best global rating on the oil and gas industry in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. On the environmental front, I would like to highlight three achievements.

First, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by more than 462,000 tons of CO2 equivalent since 2020, which represents the CO2 emitted by over 840,000 cars. Second, an 81% of water reuse in our operations, increasing 7% in terms of volume when compared to 2023, and third, in biodiversity, the stored and avoided emissions through natural climate solutions projects. On the social side, we invested over COP 606 billion in the sustainable transformation of the territories. Our leadership in the national allocation of Works in Lieu of Taxes, with a 45% share, and the various projects we promoted to benefit hundreds of Colombians. In innovation and technology, we became the first Latin American country to join the International Energy Agency's Greenhouse Gas Research and Development Program, which we aimed to boost through the Colombian Petroleum and Energy Transition Institute.

In governance, we were recognized as the best company in Colombia for attracting and retaining talent by Merco. We also transformed our organizational structure to become more agile and efficient according to the needs of each business line. Finally, I would like to highlight Ecopetrol's contribution to the regional GDP within Colombia of over COP 1.3 trillion, proving that sustainability investment generates financial benefits and promotes economic development. I now hand over to Rafael Guzmán, who will talk about the results in the Hydrocarbons business line.

Rafael Guzmán (EVP of Hydrocarbons)

Thank you, Ricardo. In the hydrocarbon business, we are focused on profitability and sustainable cash generation. This is demonstrated by the Ecopetrol Group's successful incorporation of proven reserves in 2024, achieving a reserve replacement ratio of 104% and maintaining an average reserve life of 7.6 years. We added 260 million barrels of oil equivalent in proven reserves, doubling the 2023 addition. In this regard, I would like to highlight the following: improved reserves revisions, the contributions of Rubiales and Caño Sur fields stand out, thanks to the outstanding results of the drilling campaign and the maturation of new projects. Management efforts were focused on economic factors, mitigating the impact of a lower price of Brent, which decreased by $3 per barrel compared to 2023.

This was possible thanks to the implementation of initiatives such as cost optimization measures, the strengthening of the crude oil basket, and agreements reached with the ANH regarding their economic rights. These actions not only mitigated the impact but also resulted in the incorporation of over six million barrels of oil equivalent in reserves. Now, the primary contribution derives from the expansion of improved recovery projects in Colombia, amounting to 97 million barrels of oil equivalent, representing 37% of the total incorporation. Extensions and discoveries include the commercialization of Arrecife, Saltador, and Toritos. On inorganic incorporation, the main contribution relates to the acquisition of Repsol's 45% stake in the CPO-09 block, located in the department of Meta. This purchase added 32 million barrels of oil equivalent to 1P reserves and enabled nearly 8 million barrels of oil equivalent of organic incorporation through synergies with the Chichimene field.

Additionally, we executed divestments, resulting in a net addition of 29 million barrels of oil equivalent. It is noteworthy that 89% of the total proven reserves are from fields in Colombia, where we achieved a 109% reserve replacement ratio. Lastly, on the gas front, in 2024, we incorporated 15 million barrels of oil equivalent, following two years without adding proven reserves of this Hydrocarbon. In addition, as part of our effort to strengthen the gas portfolio, we increased contingent resources by 1.3 trillion cu ft, mainly from the Sirius discovery. Let's move to the next slide, please. As part of our active and efficient portfolio management, we successfully completed important deals in 2024 to ensure the profitable sustainability of the Hydrocarbon business.

Regarding acquisitions, and as previously mentioned, the purchase of Repsol's stake in the CPO-09 block, this transaction strengthens Ecopetrol's position in the Llanos Orientales Basin, providing benefits in reserves, production, and potential volumes to be developed of over 250 million barrels of oil. This also enhances decision-making agility and creates synergies in the development and operational costs, as Ecopetrol now holds 100% interest in the cluster that includes the Chichimene, Castilla, and CPO-09 assets. Furthermore, we extended the joint venture between Ecopetrol and Oxy in the Midland area of the Permian Basin until June 2026, with the possibility of signing a new extension of the development plan in the future. The contract for the development of the Delaware sub-basin will remain in force until 2027. Likewise, we implemented a dilution strategy, resulting in the signing of 10 agreements with Parex, aimed at reactivating areas with high exploration and development potential.

Under these agreements, Parex plans to carry out investment exploration activities in Piedemonte and Farallones. Likewise, in Putumayo, Parex will invest $350 million as carry-in exploration and development, with the expectation that both companies will incorporate resources in 2025 as projects mature. Simultaneously, we continue to advance our agenda with the National Hydrocarbons Agency, ANH, and the Ministry of Mines and Energy to maximize activities within the areas of existing contracts and agreements. This effort has resulted in the extension of 15 exploration contracts across various regions of Colombia, as illustrated on the map. All these milestones will serve as future sources for reserves incorporation. Let's move to the next slide, please. In exploration, we progressed with the drilling of 16 wells compared to the 15 initially planned, with an investment of $454 million.

As a result, seven wells were successful, including Caripito-1, which confirmed the presence of hydrocarbons during the initial test in January 2025. Two wells are currently under evaluation, and seven wells had no commercial hydrocarbon volumes. In addition, we highlight the progression of resources to proven reserves with the commerciality of Arrecife, which contributed to a total of 6.8 million barrels of oil equivalent. Lastly, in 2024, Ecopetrol acquired interest in four additional blocks in the Santos Sur project in Brazil, with a 30% stake for a total of 11 blocks. Let's move to the next slide, please. In 2024, the Ecopetrol Group achieved a production of 746,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding the target for the year. These results were primarily supported by the performance of the Permian and Caño Sur fields.

Additionally, the continuous contribution of assets in Colombia, such as Castilla, Rubiales, Chichimene and Piedemonte, which generated 42% of the Ecopetrol Group's production. Fields with improved recovery technology contributed with nearly 41% of Ecopetrol Group's total production. Regarding the production levels in the fourth quarter of 2024, it is important to note that the lower levels were anticipated within the projections and are mainly attributed to the anticipation of Permian activity in the first nine months of the year, environmental events due to the rainy season causing electrical disruptions, mainly in Rubiales, Yariguí, Chichimene and Castilla, hurricanes affecting Ecopetrol America, regular low-gas sales during the end of the year. In 2025, we estimate a production between 740,000 and 750,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which incorporates production from the acquisition of 45% of CPO-09, but also consider social unrest risks. Let's move to the next slide, please.

In 2024, transported volumes increased by more than 5,800 barrels per day compared to the previous year, primarily driven by greater deliveries of Castilla Norte crude oil from the Barrancabermeja Refinery and the implementation of commercial strategies that facilitated the addition of barrels outside the transportation network. Thanks to mitigation strategies, enhanced operational control, and coordination with government entities, more than 7 million barrels were evacuated from the Caño Limón field through the Bicentenario Pipeline, following the suspension of the Banadía-Ayacucho section of the Caño Limón-Coveñas Pipeline. In 2024, this segment achieved the highest net income, amounting to COP 5.2 trillion, and recorded the second highest EBITDA, reaching COP 11 trillion and contributing to 20% of the total EBITDA of the Ecopetrol Group. Let's move to the next slide.

In 2024, the refineries achieved a throughput of 414,000 barrels per day, with an average annual operational availability of 94.5%, despite a challenging market and operational environment. The gross refining margin decreased by $7.7 per barrel compared to 2023. In 2024, it stands at $9.9 per barrel. 78% of this impact is due to the decline in international fuel prices, mainly affecting diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel, 11% primarily due to the effect of the lower availability of segregated light crude oil at the Barrancabermeja refinery as a result of the attacks on the Caño Limón-Coveñas Pipeline, and the remaining 11% was the result of operational events such as the limitation of the coke compressor and the power shutdown at the Cartagena Refinery. Regarding the latter, we continue advancing in the comprehensive plan to restore refineries' electrical reliability, having completed four of the 16 planned milestones.

By 2025, we aim to advance 10 milestones. As a result of the aforementioned factors, the segment's EBITDA stood at COP 2.2 trillion in 2024, 69% less than previous year. When normalizing for exogenous factors, the EBITDA would have been COP 6.9 trillion, with an EBITDA margin of 9.9%. In 2025, the segment's efforts are concentrated on levers to enhance business profitability and mitigate exogenous effects, such as cost and expenses optimization, focus on operational and logistical efficiency, initiatives to maximize business profitability through the production of higher-value products, including petrochemical, asphalt, and chemical recycling, and the execution of energy transition projects aimed at sustainability and diversification of refining products into new markets, such as renewable jet and diesel production, aromatic petrochemistry, low-emissions hydrogen production, and improvements in air quality. Let's go to the next slide.

In 2024, the Ecopetrol Group continued materializing its efficiencies strategy with a contribution of COP 5.3 trillion, exceeding the target proposed for the year. As shown in the lower left figure, the efficiencies were able to offset the increase in total unit cost by $0.97 per barrel, resulting in a total unit cost of $47.71 per barrel in 2024. Lifting, transportation, and refining costs were impacted by exogenous factors such as exchange rate, inflation, and gas prices. This year, we will continue to execute our efficiencies program with new initiatives aimed at increasing the profitability of our operations and investments, maximizing asset value, enhancing synergies within the integrated hydrocarbon chain, and identifying optimizations in our supply chain. The program aims to achieve efficiencies by COP 4.6 trillion. Now, I'll turn it over to David, who will discuss the main milestones of the Energies for the Transition business line.

David Riaño Alarcón (EVP of Transition Energies)

Thank you, Rafael. In Ecopetrol, we acknowledge the importance of natural gas as a transition mechanism to cleaner energies. For this reason, we remain committed to the incorporation of a portfolio of options that allow us to contribute to the reliable supply of national demand in the coming years. To achieve this, we are implementing all actions and investments necessary to support the country's energy security. In 2024, we successfully delivered the gas committed under contracts with third parties, with an average of 506 GBTUD per day of natural gas and 15,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of LPG. This led to a production of 170.2 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day of natural gas and LPG, with an EBITDA generation of nearly COP 2.9 trillion.

This EBITDA is 70% lower than in 2023, mainly due to a lower availability of domestic natural gas and LPG and exchange rate variations. However, we continue our efforts to ensure that this business line makes a significant contribution to the achievement of our long-term goals. Throughout most of 2024, we assessed various alternatives for importing natural gas through market information requests and internal analysis. These evaluations, both technical and financial, explored options that could support gas demand until offshore projects come live. In this context, we highlight progress in two important areas: the startup of the Ballena LNG project, which allowed us to identify its benefits from the technical and commercial point of view for meeting medium-term on natural gas demand, and the approval to continue the studies during 2025.

The bidding process for regasification services, the first of its kind, that seeks private companies to offer regasification service to Ecopetrol. In regulatory matters, we highlight the company's efforts to promote the updating of gas marketing rules in key areas such as commercialization mechanism for the volumes coming from new gas projects, endorsement to develop the transportation infrastructure required to connect new projects with users, and the need for regulatory certainty related to the development of new gas projects and the possibility of developing natural gas imports.

In this line, relevant advances have materialized for the market, such as the CREG resolutions that structurally modify and make more flexible periods for natural gas commercialization and promote the use of all the volumes available in the market, the Decree 1467 of 2024 that makes imports and offshore natural gas sources viable, and finally, the Supply Plan that includes strategic transportation infrastructures for the development of new supply. Let's move on to the next slide. In terms of energy efficiency, between 2018 and 2024, we reached accumulative energy optimization of 19.9 PJ, equivalent to the annual gas and power consumption of more than 1 million households, contributing to decarbonize close to 1.2 million tons of CO2 equivalent and generating savings of COP 389 billion.

These results have a major impact on the goals of Colombia's Rational and Efficient Energy Program, which promote an efficient use of energy in different sectors and activities of the economy, representing 72% of the national goal for the oil and gas sector. Regarding the integration of renewable energies into our energy markets, by the end of 2024, the Ecopetrol Group accumulated 611 MW of capacity from non-conventional renewable energy sources in operation, execution, and construction, with a potential contribution of 1.6 TWh per year, which corresponds to a 19% share in the group's energy matrix and 52% lower tariff when compared to non-regulated energy purchases.

The combined effect of these efforts in transition energies, including the final investment decision and the start of construction of the Coral project at the Cartagena Refinery, a plan for green hydrogen production using PEM technology with an electrolysis capacity of 5 MW, leveraged our position to achieve our goals. In summary, 2024 ends with 68% progress towards our goal of incorporating 900 MW of non-conventional renewable energy sources by 2025, 80% progress towards our target of 25 PJ in energy efficiency by 2030, and a clear path in 2025 to escalate at green hydrogen production at an industrial level.

As part of our commitment to promote a fair energy transition and contribute to sustainable territorial transformation, by the end of 2024, the Ecopetrol Group impacted more than 13,000 people with renewable energy solutions, supporting the consolidation of the largest energy community in the country, located in Manaure, La Guajira, and connecting communities with renewable energy solutions for biodiversity and peace. Additionally, we connected more than 25,000 families to natural gas service for a total amount of 69,000 since 2019. In 2025, we aim to execute 16 additional projects, connecting 30,000 new families in more than 10 departments around the country. I will now pass the floor to Camilo, who will present our transmission and road business line and the main financial milestones.

Camilo Barco Muñoz (Chief Value Officer)

Thank you, David.

In 2024, ISA achieved the highest net profit of its history, driven by the entry into operation of new projects and by the recognition of the periodic tariff review for transmission companies in Brazil during the third quarter of the year. The 12% increase in revenues, 8% rise in EBITDA, and 43% growth in net income compared to 2023 highlight our strong performance. Net income results were partially due to impairment figures of the year compared to 2023. In line with our strategic diversification goals, by the year-end, ISA's individual results enhanced its contribution to Ecopetrol Group, accounting for 12% of consolidated revenues, 18% of EBITDA, and 6% of net income. Consequently, the average return on equity measured by the ROE indicator reached 16.9% in 2024, up from 14.4% in 2023.

ISA accelerated its investment execution in 2024, reaching COP 4.8 trillion, with a robust investment plan committed to achieve 2030's target of COP 26.1 trillion. The year's execution included the launch of 15 projects across various regions, such as the Minuano project in Brazil, connection service to the substation El Copey in Colombia, and Ruta del Loa project in Chile. By 2030, 5,600 km of circuit to the grid and 296 km of toll roads will be added through the development of 38 projects that are currently under construction. With investments of COP 3.8 trillion, ISA secured 10 tenders in power transmission, including notable projects such as the Ruta Orbital Sur in Chile and the East Pan-American road in Panama. Finally, we will launch our ISA 2040 investment strategy on March 12, which will continue to strengthen our regional growth.

Let's go to the next slide to detail the financial performance of the group. The strong financial results for 2024 were driven by our sustained efforts to achieve structural efficiencies, maintain profitability, uphold a strong cash position, exercise continued capital discipline, and mitigate external impacts. Key financial achievements for 2024 include ROACE of 10.2% and EBITDA margin of 41% above annual targets, with a significant contribution coming from the transmission and toll road segment. Optimization of our debt structure through strategic financing operations for around COP 22 trillion, pursuing an early refinancing plan and lowering interest expenses. In addition, the company kept its gross debt to EBITDA ratio under control in 2.2x and extended the average life of debt from 8.5 years in 2023 to 9.3 years in 2024.

The highest free cash flow of our history, underpinned by a strong operational performance and the collection of the account receivable from the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (FEPC) accrued in 2023. Given these positive results, we propose an attractive dividend payout of 58.9%, with a dividend per share of COP 214. This proposal is aligned to our dividend policy and will be coordinated with our majority shareholder to achieve a parallel payment of the FEPC balance accumulated in 2024. Let's now look at our cash position and results. In 2024, the significant decline of the FEPC receivable favored our cash position, which was adversely affected in 2023 in terms of working capital. The FEPC balance closed at 7.6 trillion COP, the lowest level since 2021, thanks to the collection of 20.5 trillion COP during 2024, in addition to the increase of gasoline prices and a slight rise in diesel prices.

For 2025, we anticipate the FEPC balance to range between COP 4 trillion and COP 6 trillion, assuming the current price scenario remains unchanged. The robust COP 18.2 trillion cash position for the year-end, on a consolidated basis, will be primarily allocated to the 2025 investment plan, as well as to operational and financial obligations. Our EBITDA reached COP 54.1 trillion in 2024, with an EBITDA margin of 41%, setting out one of the highest profitability levels of our history. It's important to mention that our EBITDA decreased in approximately COP 6.6 trillion compared to the previous year, mainly due to the external factors impacting COP 7.8 trillion, including a 45% impact from price decreases, consolidating the Brent reference price and product and crude oil differentials, a 37% impact from the lower average FX rate of the year, and an 18% effect from inflation.

Excluding these externalities, the adjusted EBITDA would have been approximately COP 62 trillion, representing 43% EBITDA margin. Please go to the next slide. In 2024, we executed an ambitious and challenging investment plan, achieving $6.1 billion in both organic and inorganic investments. Investments were primarily allocated in Colombia, 65%, and internationally, 35%, mainly in the U.S. Permian Basin and Brazil. Organic investments in the Hydrocarbon segments accounted for 68% of the group's total investments, with significant projects in Caño Sur, Chichimene, Acacías, and the Permian drilling campaign. 20% of the investments were allocated to ISA, which enhanced progress made in 38 projects under construction by itself and its subsidiaries. Additionally, commercial operations commenced in 15 power transmission projects. Improvements were made to the ISA energy grid in Brazil, and the Ruta del Loa project in Chile was initiated.

The Energy Transition business segment executed 13% of the group's total investments, focusing on the gas supply chain in basins such as Permian, offshore Tayrona Block, and Piedemonte, as well as renewable energy projects like the Iguana Solar Ecopark and the Quifa Solar Farm. Finally, $239 million were allocated to inorganic investments to acquire 45% of Repsol's stake in the CPO-09 block and for the acquisition of Oleoducto de Colombia non-controlling interest by Cenit. Now, let's comment on our 2025 investment plan. For 2025, the investment plan aims at sustained growth, controlled costs, and ensured profitability for our shareholders while strengthening our traditional business. We plan to invest between COP 24 trillion and COP `28 trillion, with 60% allocated to energy security. This includes enhancing our crude oil production, securing refining throughput, and meeting domestic fuel demand with our own products.

The remainder 40% of our investments will be allocated towards the energy transition, including sustainability, innovation, and electricity transmission and toll roads. The investment plan is based on an average Brent price in area of $73 per barrel. It aims to preserve competitive returns with 39% EBITDA margin and achieve efficiencies exceeding COP 4 trillion. Such plan does not account for the export taxes and stamp tax introduced by Colombia's internal commotion decree in February 2025. Nevertheless, we do not anticipate significant impacts on its execution. Finally, I would like to discuss the main challenges we identified for this year and outline how our finance team plans to address them. Like our peers, we will remain focused on reversing the trend at costs.

For this, we set a lifting cost target ranging from $12-$13 per barrel for the whole year, aiming to reach the lower end of the range. Additionally, our debt management strategy will focus on addressing cash needs that may arise from inorganic opportunities and continuing to reduce financial costs. To optimize our return on capital employed and profitability, we will focus on managing our assets and the turnover of our portfolio. Finally, we continue taking action to support the dynamism of our stock and create value for our shareholders. Recently, we announced two key initiatives: a temporary decrease in ADR conversion costs and the appointment of a market maker for our local stock. I now turn the floor over to the President for his closing remarks.

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President)

Thank you, Camilo.

The satisfactory results of 2024 allow us to continue generating value and profitability in 2025, based on strict capital discipline and cash rotation criteria. For the year, the operational and financial goals we had set respond to the need to keep enhancing organic production of hydrocarbons, preserve integrity, availability, and reliability across our infrastructure, increase our efforts related to efficiencies and decarbonization while consolidating the Energy Transition business line, and maintain our leadership in energy transmission in the region. We recognize the challenges ahead, so our efforts will focus mainly on enhancing flexible operations to address contingencies and preserve continuity, enabling cost-efficient alternatives that allow us to maintain our competitiveness. I thank all the employees of the Ecopetrol Group for their hard work in 2024 and encourage them to keep moving forward in 2025. Thank you all for participating in this conference call.

I now open the floor to the question-and-answer session.

Operator (participant)

We will now start the question-and-answer session. We ask you to please have a maximum of three questions to give time for all the participants. Please select in the interpretation icon the language of your question. Otherwise, we will not be able to listen to you. Thank you. Ms. Ortiz from Corredores Davivienda has a question. Ms. Ortiz, you can ask.

Katherine Ortiz (Analyst)

Good morning, everybody. Can you hear me? Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. Very quickly, three questions. The first is I'd like to understand a little bit of the impairment terms of the Refining segment because one of the reasons to do that reversion is that the difference between prices and margins were adjusted to the upper side.

So I'd like to understand those assumptions that you're using so that you could have that value of these operations. The first question is that. The second has to do with the profitability that you're estimating an EBITDA margin for 2025 of 39%. Does that mean that you're expecting a reduction in EBITDA margin because this year we have investment in 2024 and it should be decreasing. I'd like to understand a little bit why do you see that reduction in the profits? And that should be a margin that we should hope to be stable in the medium-term. And I'm surprised because this year we do have lower because we have lower prices in terms of the price of oil and rate of exchange. So I'd like to understand why they are still expecting an improvement in this market.

Lastly, the third question has to do with recently, at the end of last year, you enabled the self-generation through a regulation. I'd like to know whether that is real and how likely is it that the payment of the balance will be made using the assets from Urrá? And in addition, whether it is true that they made an offer for the project where the CapEx that you are mentioning are also including these purchases in the case of unit basis. Those are my three questions.

Camilo Barco Muñoz (Chief Value Officer)

Good morning, Katherine. This is Camilo Barco. Thank you for your questions. My microphone was also. You couldn't hear us. So I'd like to start by the question about the impairment, which is shown in the last quarter of 2024.

And this is something that we do according to generally accepted methodology, which is fair market value, which is based on the valuation through discounted cash flows for the short, medium, and long terms. In that respect, there's really perhaps three or four factors that affect this adjustment that we can, or this recovery that we can see in the statement of results for the previous year. First of all, I'd like to mention the curves that we use to project the prices. They are companies, international companies, long-standing companies that produce this type of information. And we use that information to do our impairment exercise, basically, with CapEx in plants and the CGUs. And these are curve scenarios and projections, the ones that we use in our valuation.

In those curves, we see that there will be a recovery of the differential prices for the products which are used for the medium and the long term. That would be one of the factors. The second one has to do with the local crude availability for our refiners, which allows us to optimize the cost of the input and the crudes that are processed therein. Thirdly, there's a component that has to do with the discount rate, and the discount rates that were used had some small adjustments in terms of including some risk factors, and when we add the price projections, the local crude component, the adjustments for the rates, we have positive impairment, which reflects a recovery of approximately $0.9 billion in the last quarter for 2024. I hope that this has answered your question about impairment.

The second question about the EBITDA margin, we are projecting for the next year, an EBITDA margin of around 39%. That EBITDA margin, as you can see, is the result of applying a price projection for this year, which was less than we had for 2024. This year, we're working with Brent prices of $73 per barrel. It's lower than what we used for the previous year, which was around $80 per barrel. This is an important fact. However, it's a good time to repeat our firm's commitment to the efficiencies for this year. We have an efficiency plan, which is greater than COP 4 trillion, close to COP 4.5 trillion, which will enable us to offset a good measure of the behavior of external variables.

This is the immediate margin projected based on prices and the behavior of what we expect for the price of Brent and refined products for this year, 2025. I give the floor now to the President to answer the issue about remote self-generation and the possible acquisition of renewable generation assets.

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President)

Katherine, good morning. This is Ricardo Roa. My third question has to do with whether we could, we were speaking about the possibility of buying assets such as Urrá to compensate the cost from the Ecopetrol to the government at the end of 2024. Those alternatives have been assessed in conversations with the Ministry of the Treasury. We have not heard the appropriate regulations to allow Ecopetrol to acquire this type of assets after an evaluation of the assets.

It is not so relevant about the balance of the COP 7.6 trillion that we ended at the balance at the end of 2025. However, looking at the regulations, if there were the appropriate regimes to apply that renewable generation to assets like that, we will continue to assess them. Right now, in talks with the technical groups in the Ministry of Finance, we have an agenda for the repayment of the FEPC as we get the repayment of the dividends to the nation. About the Windpeshi farm project, the parties, that's Ecopetrol and Enel, who have been working to perfect an agreement for this transaction, purchasing the project in La Guajira. If we make the agreement under a confidential basis, we'll carry out the appropriate procedures and have to be closed the process. We would publish the details about your communication on through the communication channels.

Operator (participant)

We'll continue with a question in Spanish. Mr. Guardiola, you can ask.

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. I'd like to mention two issues, the operations of Ecopetrol in the Permian in the U.S. I don't know whether you can give us more details about the extension agreement signed with Oxy in the Midland Basin, especially because a day after that, the day after that, President Petro asked to cancel that contract. Are you thinking about canceling the contract that has already been signed? First of all. The second thing is, what does extension include? How many acres? And what is the potential that you see for these acres that are in the Midland in terms of total locations for drilling to understand what is the additional potential that you might look at in the Midland, especially? That would be about my opinion.

My second and last is to have your opinion about the potential of non-conventional oil and gas in Colombia. Is that an opportunity or is that something that you're not considering right now? And if you're not, I'd like to know what are the reasons why not go after these opportunities in Colombia. These are my two questions.

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President)

Thank you, Daniel Guardiola. First of all, I'd like to tell you that about the Permian project. I'll give the floor to Julián, the Vice President of New Business, to tell you about the details of this extension of the agreement with Oxy for extending the exploitation of the assets in the Midland Basin. Let me then talk about the second part, which is after the day of the second, the day after the signature was signed, the President of the Republic told the Board of Directors.

I asked the Board of Directors to make the technical and economic analysis required to get out of that. That's what we do constantly. We do valuation and assessment of the assets, not only in the U.S., but also in our geographies around the world where we have agreements. So we are very respectful of the times, the terms, and the agreements that we signed with our allies. And in that respect, we continue to make our decisions with the capital discipline criteria that you know, according to which we decided to extend that agreement with the exit or sanctioning the Permian Basin.

The second question about the non-conventionals. It is clear that in the country, the current government policy is rigorous with respect to demanding that we stop for the time the activity of these explorations, and the contracts that we had as pilots have been suspended or closed properly without leaving any environmental economic liability spending with the contractors that we're doing our obligations as long as we still have regulations or legislation scenarios that prohibit this activity in the country. Very good. Ecopetrol is focusing its attention to exploring and looking for petroleum and gas with the contracts that we have and in the areas where we're also exploiting to be able to place molecules and crudes in the system. That's what we are doing. And within that framework, we are carrying out these projects. And we're making significant investments.

I'll give the floor to Julián to tell you about the details of the extension of the joint venture for Oxy.

Julián Fernando Lemos (VP of Strategy and New Business)

Thank you, President. Good morning, Daniel. Julián Lemos, Vice President of Strategy and New Business. We, with Oxy, as has been mentioned, we had an agreement to extend the activity plan. And I want to emphasize that point because the ownership of the acreage doesn't change. The ownership of production doesn't change what we extend. Therefore, the activity by Oxy as an operator within the contract of the joint venture. We must remember that with our entry into 2019, we purchased 49% of a new area close to 95,000 acres in Midland and then an area close to 20,000 acres in Delaware. And that area, which is being under development right now. So this doesn't include the additional area.

It only includes an extension of the plan in which Oxy agrees to develop around 90 wells during 2025 and similar figures to what we had for 2024. This is somewhat what I can tell you about the agreement. There are some rights which are confidential between the parties, but this made it a beneficial scenario for Oxy and for Ecopetrol in which both parties were able to extend that activity. It is open to future extensions if either of the parties believes it appropriate. We will discuss it as appropriate.

Rafael Guzmán (EVP of Hydrocarbons)

This is Rafael Guzmán, Vice President of Hydrocarbons. I'd like to also add that, as we have said, we included our reserves last year, 22 million barrels that were unable to be booked that we have now. Our guidance is based on the period. The future investments, which is the agreement, we're going to be reviewing this all the time.

It is possible that we might have constant extensions to this agreement.

Operator (participant)

The next question is in English. Mr. Montanari?

[Foreign language]

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President)

Good morning. Let me talk to the first question. Unfortunately, I do not agree with the fact that the reason why our shares' performance in Ecopetrol and the stock market are reacting due to the expectation of a new administration.

The reality is that the figures, the numbers of the results that we've seen and been mentioning, the close, the expansion of the contract with Oxy in Permian, the acquisition of 45% of the Ecopetrol Group that we have in Repsol in CPO-09, the replacement of reserves that had 104%, those are advancements or advances in the actual material, advances of the transition that we're going to have in the middle of next year. We have the largest and highest technology plant in Latin America for green hydrogen and exceptionally included the incorporation of new energies for renewable uses. This is being read properly by the market and the stockholders, and that is the explanation for the improved performance of the shares in the stock market. About the expectations for the new administrations for the second, well, we'll have to wait until the next administration.

I think alternatively, this administration has been very deeply articulated with the understanding and the issue of standards of regulations that allow us to make our role more flexible in supplying the energy for fuels for the country. In gas, there's a flexible decision that allows us to commercialize volumes at any time. We can import a second window of gas and sell it to the market. We don't have that restriction. We're working on the rates for conversion to assets for transportation of crude or gas. These have been advances we had in the administration and with the institution.

Julio César Herrera (VP of Commercial and Marketing)

Good morning, Leonardo. Thank you for your question. This is Julio César Herrera, Vice President of Commercial and Marketing in charge. About the prices of gas and diesel, I can tell you with two statements.

First of all, let me tell you that the prices are regulated and defined in Colombia by the national government. Ecopetrol, we have the responsibility of implementing them. About the prices with the parity international prices, I can tell you that we are indexed to the international indicators. We maintain the strategy of diversifying origins and destinations. Specifically, I can tell you that right now the regulated price of the gasoline is higher than the import parity. Diesel is below because I can tell you that at the end, we got $76 for the income and the parity price was $99 per barrel.

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

[Foreign language]. Please select in the interpretation icon the language in which you're going to make your translation. Otherwise, we can't be able to listen to you. The next question comes from Victor Modanese.

You can ask your question.

Victor Modanese (Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning, Victor Modanese from UBS. I have two questions on my side. The lifting costs during 2024 remain above levels seen in previous years despite the cost efficiencies achieved. What's your expectation for the company's lifting costs going forward beyond the $20 per barrel target for 2025? Could long-term costs decrease back to the levels seen previously? And second, on the topic of Ecopetrol's natural gas and gas capacity, could you provide more details on potential volume and value of future projects under discussion that relate to the tax?

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President)

Good morning. Thank you for your question. For 2025, we are looking at the inflection point in terms of the out-of-well cost. You've seen an increase in the cost for 2025. We expect to be close to what we saw in 2024.

We're working on the efficiencies to be able to, in the future, to be able to lower the costs. But for 2025 specifically, we do not expect any increases compared to 2024. About regasification, I can talk to David. While David answers talking about the regasification gas projects, I'd like to add to the question about the, as you mentioned in the presentation, one of our objectives was to contain the increase in the cost. In that respect, for this year, we could have between $12 and $13 per barrel on the upstream with the implementation of the efficiency goal for the more than COP 4.3 trillion in efficiencies. We hope that the total cost will be in the lower cost of $12, not only by controlling the cost, but also improving somewhat what we saw compared to 2024.

David Riaño Alarcón (EVP of Transition Energies)

Good morning.

This is David Riaño, Vice President of Transition Energies. During the past year, we assessed several alternatives to import gas into the country, both in the Atlantic and the Pacific coasts, and as a result of that process, we identified the best two alternatives for the Ecopetrol Group, which meet the capital criteria, which would allow us to put some gas into the market to meet the demand that we expect for the next few years. Specifically, these are two projects that we've identified. One in the Pacific coast with a capacity of regasification of 60 million cu ft per day. This is a project in which Ecopetrol acquires the regasification service. And therefore, the third party does all the investment, all the logistics activities for receiving, storage and regasification. We are pursuing a regasification plan.

This is going to be through OpEx, and Ecopetrol doesn't need any CapEx investments. The other project is our own project in the north part of the country in the Caribbean in the Chuchupa platform, which is an asset owned by the group using existing infrastructure that allows us to take gas to the transportation system for LPG and the one that leads from the gas to the Caribbean. We can bring approximately 200 million cu ft per day of regasified gas. In this case, Ecopetrol would make some subsidies in the Chuchupa platform, and the regasification service would be through a floating regasification service carried out by a third party. This is under analysis, especially in terms of the environmental issues. As soon as we have more information, we'll be publishing it.

Victor Modanese (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, that's very helpful. Thanks.

Good morning, everybody. Thank you for my time.

Two questions. What can we expect after the acquisition of CPO-09 in terms of development? Now that you have 100% of the working interest, could we expect an acceleration in the development plan or the field? And the second one is whether the payout that you defined for 2025 is somewhat limited by the M&A expectations of the company you mentioned, or you mentioned the assets there. So Gecelca, I think, is ruled out. But are you considering any other potential acquisitions and could all be in the generation sector? Thank you.

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President)

Good morning again. The acquisition of the participation we had in CPO-09 is one of the major landmarks for Ecopetrol last year because in addition to the reserves we have, they want to include 32 million for the acquisition. We're really beginning to see what we can with this additional block with the Chichimene and Castilla.

We're going to be able to have another eight million barrels a day with these fields. I want to expand on this. The Acacías specifically, which is the main field in this CPO-09, is a continuation of the Chichimene field, where Ecopetrol has made major investments and developments, and we're getting high recoveries thanks to air and water injection. Those lessons that we learned will be used for the CPO-09. In addition, we have two productions; one's in production, which are in addition to blocks CPO-09. These are an extension of the Castilla field. All the investment made by Ecopetrol in Castilla has moved, will be moved to this block. We have major savings in development and operation costs by having 100% interest in this entire field.

An example is the development of Tinamú, which is we see that as a connection of these two wells. You're going to connect to the Castilla facility through Flora. This would be another increase in development costs. This acquisition in the future will have the potential to buy an additional 50 million barrels in this block, which represents a large number of barrels for Ecopetrol. Thank you. The second question is for the payout that you've made for the distribution of dividends. I pulled my yesterday's report. To talk about the payout, I have to talk to the three different factors in which the proposal of the distribution that is put to the assembly.

The first is a dividend policy that has been adopted by the board of directors, to which we've declared that in the document 20-F, and it says that the policy is part of the distribution between 40% and 60% of available profits for the share for the stock. This is the first framework for conversation. The second one has to do, obviously, with the availability of cash and the group's liquidity. As we saw last year, we had a solvent position of greater than COP 18 trillion. And the third has to do with the investment plan for 2025 as part of the three-year plan for investments. It's an ambitious plan, which is over $6.7 trillion. By combining these factors, we find that the dividend payout is framed with the three elements.

For investments, 70% of the total will be used for hydrocarbons, including gas as a transition fuel, 30% remaining for transitional energies, transmission, and roads. In general, about the acquisitions or inorganic buys, as part of our ongoing job, we're constantly evaluating different physical facilities in different sectors. In addition to the opportunity that we mentioned and that the market is aware of in terms of renewable energy, we also explore a significant number of opportunities in different segments and lines of business.

One last question. Could we expect that the payment of the Stabilization Fund payments will continue with the same dynamics that we saw in 2024, which is a modification of 12 months of the remaining balance, which is decreasing, but it's done a reasonable assumption for our months?

Yes, Andrés. Yeah, I'd like to point out the effort that the national government has made.

Even in the midst of the fiscal situation that we have, the national government has been complying with the dates and the amounts that were established for paying the obligations. We had some payments for over COP 20 trillion, and the balance for 2024 is COP 7.6 billion and to be included in your respective months this year. We have forecast also regular payments every quarter, four payments over the year. These are being reviewed the way payment might change according to some requests from the Ministry of Finance, but working based on regular quarterly payments of similar amounts, maybe higher than the first quarter. We're talking about COP 2.3 trillion, and in the second one would be a similar amount, and for the second semester, one or two additional payments for the remaining balance of COP 3.5 billion, approximately.

So in summary, yes, we can foresee that the payments will be continued. They've committed to the government, has committed to making their payments on time, and we are reviewing and agreeing the way manner of payments which best fits the Ministry of the Treasury according to the cash flow inflows and our own requirements in Ecopetrol.

Operator (participant)

Mr. Duarte, you may ask your question.

Thank you. Good morning. I have three questions. The first one is about the gas facility for Ecopetrol, which is gasifying in the Pacific. How are you going to transport that gas from the port to the nearest gas line, LPG or some of those companies that are in the west also known? Is that through overland or is that you have or somebody else intended to do that connection between the port and the gas lines in the interior?

The second question is, can you tell us how much were the contributions of the payments for Ecopetrol to the nation in 2024? What is expected for 2025? And please, can you itemize the taxes? How much is for income tax and what is the others? And the last question is what the President mentioned earlier about the green hydrogen plant. I'd like to know whether you have identified the sources of generation and water that you would start to use to produce that hydrogen, and whether that's 800,000 total per year, whether that is that production is all going to refinement or is it simply a surplus that are going to be sold somewhere else?

David Riaño Alarcón (EVP of Transition Energies)

David Riaño, Executive Vice President of Transition Energies.

As far as the regasification in the Pacific, as we mentioned earlier, this is at which Ecopetrol acquires the right to the service of regasification, which is going to be provided by a third party. That third party is going to receive the materials, storage, transport it over land through their energy state, and regasify it and deliver it to the National Transportation System in Buga. This would be the gas line from Mariquita-Cali, which is via TGI. In fact, the regasification plant in Buga is next to current line for the transportation line. About the second question about the contribution to the country, to the nation. In Q4, we had more than COP 40 billion, of which from dividends, we paid COP 11 billion. Taxes is about COP 10 billion. For 2025, we expect to pay expectations on the price behavior and total revenue. Approximately COP 35 trillion.

We proposed COP 7.8 trillion for the nation. In royalties and taxes, more than COP 19 trillion.

Operator (participant)

I'm sorry, the microphone has an echo and it's coming and going.

David Riaño Alarcón (EVP of Transition Energies)

David Riaño, Vice President of Energy Transition. About your third question about the green hydrogen plant that we are building at the Cartagena Refinery, we must say that that production that we expect at 800 tons per year of green hydrogen will be totally used by the refinery. So that amount of hydrogen is 1% of the total hydrogen needed by the refinement process. Right now, this is based on the natural gas. This is green hydrogen. So this green hydrogen will be part of meeting those requirements for the current refinement. Therefore, we don't have any surplus. We expect that the electrolyzer will have 15 L/kg of the hydrogen used.

It will be enough energy to meet the hydrogen plant.

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

One more question in Spanish and then Mr. Ricardo Andrés Sandoval Carrera from Bancolombia. Mr. Sandoval, you can ask your question.

Ricardo Andrés Sandoval Carrera (Research Analyst)

Thank you for the call. I have some questions that first have to do with the margins that you're going to obtain in 2025. You explained it before I had a bad connection. I'd like to know the main reason why we see the increase in those margins because of the long-term margin that we usually have been working with. And it was always at least 40%. The second question has to do with what is the probability of distribution of the occasional reserves? Can you give us an idea of what part of the occasional reserves can be distributed without the need to acquire any new debt? And the last question is about ISA and the Chile event.

Recently, there was a blackout in Chile, where ISA is part of that research process. I'd like to know whether you can tell us a little bit about the possible fines or economic consequences of that blackout and whether you see that as a need to make additional investments in Chile and even as an opportunity to improve transmission in this country. Thank you very much.

Camilo Barco Muñoz (Chief Value Officer)

This is Camilo. I'll start by EBITDA margin. We mentioned that it has to do with this question. It has to do with what we're working on basically. It has to do with the project on which we work our financial plan for 2025. The major difference here is due to the $73 per barrel, which are projected for this year. In addition to that, we see that there has been a significant increase in the prices of refining products.

For 2023, we're talking about $19 margin. For 2024, we had margins closer to $9 per barrel. So this difference and this increase, both in the investment energy and in the refined product differentials, leads us to project some lower prices for this 2025, which have a relative impact in terms of generating the EBITDA, which leads us to a margin of about $79 million worth of margin, EBITDA margin of 39% for this 2025. About the distribution of the occasional reserve, as we saw in the previous question, these are various factors that we evaluated to submit the subject to the Board of Directors. The liquidity and availability of cash and the investment plans that we've seen for 2025. It's a challenging plan, both because of the organic investments and due to the inorganic investments.

One that we've completed this part of the year, or we see that will be completed in the near future. I'd like to say that this occasional reserve is an accounting reserve. It doesn't have real cash support to make any sort of distribution of the said. We would have to use financing. We are not foreseeing any extraordinary dividends or the distribution of occasional reserves for the available cash and the investment plans that we have foreseen for 2025 that is already ambitious and which will require some sort of financing associated to the inorganic component. The financial plan for 2025 is organic component and without additional debt for the new purchases. We will be needing some additional more refinancing, and that limits the possibility of distributing more dividends. About the question about ISA, I'm in touch with ISA. I think he gives us details about that.

Can you hear me? Thank you for your question. To give you some context, the ISA business in Chile and our platform for power transmission through ISA Interchile, this is 1,900 km in Chile. This is 4% of the EBITDA, not only the EBITDA of the company, 2% of our profits. Let me double-check that transmission line came in. From the circuit, this is the ones that we have. This is a line which is over 20,000 volts. And that we were transporting 1,200 MW in total. When that light came out, it went out of the circuit. It was unavailable of the circuit. Now, from the time, immediately we mobilized all the capabilities for coordination, all the teams to include the availability of that line, which was done at 4:00 P.M.

That was about 44 minutes after the blackout, and it was also available to be restored to service. We're still investigating the reasons for that. The protections went off unscheduled, and that cut off several circuits. We've been investigating. We've been looking at the investigations, the authorities providing all the information they require to complete this investigation successfully. Only when we complete the investigation, we can define the level of responsibility and the consequences for. We had. With respect to the fines, right now, it doesn't risk the financial viability of the company. There was another comment about the opportunities. We have two projects under development. The one with the connection project in del Loa, which was very energy transmission in that country.

That situation is going to lead us to require more support and more governments so that those lines can start operating at Chile unlike Colombia and Peru, which are very highly connected countries. Chile is very long and very radial. It needs more and more lines to install more lines.

Hi, everyone. Good morning. So I just have one question here for myself. I just wanted to ask about the developments regarding the Gato do Mato Exploration Project with Shell. Do we expect any sort of final investment decision in the coming months? And if so, what can we expect in terms of sizing for the project and timing as well? Thank you.

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President)

We've been working with our partner, Shell, to complete this development. We expect to have a final decision of investment during the first quarter of this year. We'll give you some updates on the expectations in the future.

This is something that we see we're very hopeful.

Okay. Thank you.

About ISA Colombia, what are your growth expectations in organic for the company? And are you happy with the participations? Would we have more investment, more assets due to the profits?

Thank you for the question. We have at ISA an organic growth plan, which is significant for the 2025-2030 of approximately $7 billion in various countries where we have a presence in energy and roads, especially in energy. It is the most significant with 84% of these investments, which are 50% in Brazil, and the rest is in Colombia, Peru, and Chile. This enables us to keep our growth strategy for our business. In terms of operations growth in Brazil, we have not defined any operations in terms of merging these two businesses.

We have shared control with TAESA, of which they are excellent friends if we get an appropriate profit levels and keep the growth paths with growth projects in both.

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

For the time being, there are no more questions. We'll then read the questions from the chat. What metrics can you use to measure the Downstream advantages in 2025?

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President)

We have a very structured plan for improving our Downstream segment profitability to maintain a high operating availability. We do some maintenance plans. We intend to put the throughput of the refinery with Colombian crude, and that way we continue with our investments in the Downstream. Another one of our purposes is to have a larger amount of fuel. We have modifications in the sources in Barrancabermeja. For the future, we also have to improve the quantity and improve the margin in areas such as fuels and aromatics and petrochemicals.

Another factor we're monitoring is also cost reduction. This is part of our efficiency program. Also reducing the cost of the refining blocks would be another target. About the second question about the regasification project in the Pacific, as we said earlier, Ecopetrol purchases the regasification rights, and the third party makes the investments, the operation and maintenance of the infrastructure to provide the regasification service. That is why we don't have an investment or a CapEx to be implemented by Ecopetrol. As far as the regasification project in La Guajira in the Chuchupa platform, in that case, Ecopetrol leads the project because it's going to be in its facilities. The investments that we would have to make would be in the pumping system of the FSRU, which is not very high.

With the information we have available, it should be between $50 million-$100 million because the service provided by the FSRU, which is the floating unit for storage and regasification, would be enough to pay back to the third party, which will buy the third party. As usual in this type of activity, we pay that through OpEx rate. As far as times, the regasification in the Pacific would be expected to be operative in the second quarter of 2026. Regasification in the Caribbean in the Chuchupa platform depends on some clarifications that we're consulting with the environmental authorities. Optimistically, we'd start operation in 2027.

Operator (participant)

What are the financing needs? What do we need to enter the international capital markets to get some debt in 2025? This goes to Sandra.

Sandra Rodríguez (CVP of Territorial Transformation and HSE)

Basically, there are several points.

First of all, we mentioned in the previous question the fact that the financing plan for organic financing will not require any additional financing. We should also say that during the first part of the year, we are certain that for the rest of the year, we will accelerate our inorganic investment plan. About these inorganic investments, we should clarify that it will be necessary to get some financing operations. For this year, we have some needs and some authorizations that we have been gotten from the Board of Directors for financing during 2025, which allows us to have $1 billion in structural and temporary debt for another $1 billion. In addition to the financing operations to support our inorganic investment plan, you should keep in mind that we are constantly monitoring the market.

And as we see the volatility of this period, we'll find better funding or better financing conditions, and we'll be able to use them when we find them. So the local capital market and the international capital market will always be a very interesting financing alternative for the group. We might have long-term maturities and at certain times or windows get some advantages that are convenient for our financing costs. So both in the capital markets and the banks are alternatives that we're constantly evaluating and analyzing.

Operator (participant)

How big is the impact of the tax on crude exports? And how much is the impact of the deterioration in the differential to the sale of crude?

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President)

And mention that our estimate is that we can have a total impact of approximately $50 million per month, which would be a total of six. No, he's making a mistake.

COP 50 billion a year, our total impact for the year is approximately COP 6 billion. And we're also ahead with the stamp tax, which we're also pursuing that decree. About that tax, we have an estimate of about COP 500 billion, which is COP 1.2 billion total impact on the result for 2025. In 2024, we had a reference for Castilla of 48.48%. That is -8.24%. For 2025, we started very strong. We distributed and looked at the figures yesterday. And the compensation for April for our crudes, I can report that we have a strengthening or improvement of 35% in the differential for Castilla, 36% in Apiay, and that is 19% to our crudes for the time being, due to political issues and things in Venezuela and the U.S., we are seeing our best moment. We're seeing that in our crude.

They are going to be moving, apparently. I know that you might refer to the price of crude in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to 2024. You see that there is a partial weakness, but part of what we see is that in 2023-2024, where we improved by $2 on the average differential. This is what I can tell you about it. And the trend is totally the opposite. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

And then Martí is live with a question.

Hello. Thank you for taking my question. This is a follow-up on the explanation you gave with respect to impairment recovery on Downstream. So what is the range of price differentials from the EBITDA margin you're expecting for this segment? Thank you.

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President)

The price outlook we've seen with some differentials for 25 to 26 are very similar to what we've seen in 2024.

However, in the medium and long term, we have some changes, for example. We have stable demand or slightly lower. Maybe the combination with this lift and availability and consistent demand for the medium and long term will stabilize the prices of diesel, gasoline, and others.

It's a question that I got out of the reply from the previous in the Pacific is if Ecopetrol is not going to be hiring a third party for the development, that third party must guarantee an appropriate return of its investment. So I'd like to understand what sort of contract you are writing with Ecopetrol, especially because the outlook in terms of gas reserves for the country is not very positive for the short term, but we are supposed to have a development of all the fields. It's very positive.

So, understand a bit how can you make a contract that is going to be for a long term with the expectation that we're going to have a significant increase in the gas reserves after those fields are able to produce and make a contribution to the local reserves. Can you tell me about that? What is the rationale and the type of contract that we are carrying out with a third party?

David Riaño Alarcón (EVP of Transition Energies)

Thank you for the question. The Executive Vice President of Energies for Transition. The two initiatives for regasification that I've mentioned are part of a plan that we have alternative options, which is to make these sources of gas available to the government while we get the offshore at a commercial level. All these initiatives, Pacific and the Caribbean, plus others that the group is analyzing, are part of providing that gas while the offshore comes in.

Based on that, all the contracts, in this case with the Pacific, for example, for the regasification service are set up so that it meets the time for the offshore gas entry. It's a regasification gas services. It means that Ecopetrol should buy the molecule that is coming from the international market. We use a term contracts which ensure the quantity of your gas that you need to regasify. Regasifier only. But private service and we as a group have to put the molecule at the regasification plant, and then after that, it's regasified and placed in the transportation system. We commercialize it through the national customers.

Wouldn't that Ecopetrol be paying for availability only of the FSRU, or are you going to pay some fixed amount for the availability of the regasification plant?

The regasification service here and in any other market where energy is imported. It's a fixed fee for the regasification service, which obviously has the obligation by the provider to guarantee some reliabilities and some quality of the regasification service for the year, which is a lot more with the what is sufficient for this type of energy. Then you have to bring the gas for regasification. Those are the term contracts that the group has to make to buy the molecule, which is a different type of transaction. We should mention that the highest cost of the imported gas is not the regasification service. It's the molecule put at the regasification plant. That is a material component in a transaction of this type. The regasification services don't have so much weight as the total cost of the molecule when it is placed into the national market.

Operator (participant)

No further questions.

Now, the President for a final message.

Ricardo Roa Barragán (President)

Thank you all for your attendance. We hope that we have answered all your questions and concerns about the economic, financial, and technical performance for this year. We're committed to our country, our stakeholders, and shareholders to continue to be the major company of all Colombians in the guarantee of fuel security for the country. Thank you very much.