Okeanis Eco Tankers - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello and welcome to OET's fourth quarter 2024 financial results presentation. We will begin shortly. Aristidis Alafouzos, CEO, and Iraklis Sbarounis, CFO of Okeanis Eco Tankers, will take you through the presentation. They will be pleased to address any questions raised at the end of the call. I would like to advise you that this session is being recorded. Iraklis will begin the presentation now.

Iraklis Sbarounis (CFO)

Welcome to the presentation of Okeanis Eco Tankers' results for the fourth quarter of 2024. We will discuss matters that are forward-looking in nature, and actual results may differ from the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements. Please read through the relevant disclaimer on slide two. Starting on slide four in the executive summary, I'm pleased to present the highlights of the fourth quarter of 2024. While Q4 fell short of the market's expectations a few months back, it closed with a year of very healthy commercial and financial results. We achieved fleet-wide time charter equivalent of about $39,000 per vessel per day. Our VLCCs were at 38,500, and our Suezmaxes at 39,500. We report adjusted EBITDA of $37 million, adjusted net profit of $13 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.41.

Continuing to deliver on our commitment to distribute value to our shareholders, our board declared an 11th consecutive distribution in the form of a dividend of $0.35 per share. Total distributions over the last four quarters totaled at $3 per share, or 89% of our earnings for the year. In November, we successfully completed the five-year dry dock for the Nissos Donoussa, concluding our six-vessel 2024 VLCCs dry dock project. We look to 2028 with only our two 2020 built Suezmaxes, which will undergo their five-year dry dock sometime in the second or third quarter. So, on slide five, we show the detail of our income statement for the quarter and full year. For the year in 2024, our TCE revenues totaled $262 million, with daily fleet-wide TCE of $53,000 per day, $56,000 on the VLCCs and $49,000 on the Suezmaxes.

EBITDA was approximately $204 million, and net income was just shy of $109 million, or $3.38 per share. Moving on to slide six and our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $54 million of cash. Our balance sheet debt continues to amortize by approximately $12 million every quarter, now standing at $646 million as of year-end. On slide seven, we recap our main driver behind our operational and commercial success and one of our key competitive advantages, our fleet. Our 14 vessels, all built at first-class yards in Korea and Japan, have an average age of 5.4 years. That is the youngest crude oil tanker fleet among existing fleets. We are also the only pure eco and fully scrubber-fitted fleet. These elements allow us to set a benchmark above the spot market established by conventional or mixed fleets. Slide eight, moving on to our capital structure.

After a busy 12 months, we're now in a position to reap the benefits of the improved pricing achieved by refinancing most of our vessels. Having improved our margins by 130 basis points across 12 vessels, our interest expense starts to show material improvement in Q4 and going forward. We have successfully set our robust balance sheet with added flexibility and extended maturity. Our book leverage stands at 59%, while our market-adjusted net LTV is approximately 40%. Our financings are a mix of traditional mortgage-backed banking loans, as well as sale and leasebacks, and our financiers are balanced with both traditional European shipping banks as well as Asian banks and leasing houses. We are particularly happy to have relationships in all these markets. This gives us flexibility in the future and allows us to develop and strengthen relationships.

We look forward to next year when we will have the opportunity to refinance the last outliers within our capital structure, the Nissos Aegina and Nissos Despotiko, a massive opportunity for further improvement of our breakeven costs. In the meantime, while we're not actively in pursuit of further deals, we're always on the lookout for creative opportunities. If one arises in this competitive financing market and it makes sense, we will not hesitate to take advantage of it. I will now pass the presentation to Aristidis for the commercial market.

Aristidis Alafouzos (CEO)

Thank you, Iraklis. Let me start by saying that Q4 was less interesting than we expected, but at least Q1 of 2025 began on a different note. In early Q1, the Biden administration significantly expanded the sanctions framework, which impacted more vessels, Russian banks, and charters.

Almost immediately, the market rebounded quickly and significantly, a topic we will discuss in more detail later on. However, Q4 ended relatively weakly, with crude markets lacking their usual seasonality. During Q4, and specifically in November, as Iraklis mentioned earlier, we successfully completed the five-year dry dock for Nissos Donoussa, marking the conclusion of our six-vessel VLCC dry dock project. Given the crude market weakness, we took the opportunity to clean up one more VLCC and repositioned her in the west. Again, this captured a higher earnings spot voyage for a backhaul that we'd like doing to bring our ships to the west. We also continued to strategically position our vessels in the west with selective Suezmax voyages to the east to maximize earnings potential. As a result, our Suezmaxes outperformed our VLCCs in the fourth quarter.

Despite the continued seasonal weakness from Q3, we achieved a fleet-wide TCE rate of 39,000 per operating day for the fourth quarter and 52,900 per operating day for the full year of 2024, while utilization stood at 98% in Q4 and 97% for the full year, demonstrating efficient vessel deployment. If we compare our earnings with peers that have already reported Q4 results, our outperformance for the year stood at 19% for the VLCCs and 29% for the Suezmaxes. Now, going into Q1, and as mentioned earlier, the expanded sanctions framework has significantly improved the market. The Chinese, Indians, and Turkish buyers became wary of using sanctioned ships and more specifically of buying Russian and Iranian crude oil in general. As a result, they started sourcing alternative crudes, leading with India and China actively importing from West Africa, the Middle East, and the U.S. Gulf and Brazil.

This shift has notably improved market rates and sentiment. In addition to the above, continued growth in Brazilian crude production is boosting demand for long-haul voyages. As far as our fleet is concerned, fleet triangulation remains a priority, ensuring we maximize laden legs and optimize vessel deployment. We have also repositioned one of our Suezmaxes to the clean product trade, allowing us to capture premium earnings while repositioning her to the west after her fronthaul voyage to the east we fixed in Q4. Given these developments so far in Q1 of 2025, we have fixed 81% of VLCC spot days at $39,100 per day and 77% of Suezmax spot days at $33,400 per day. With the ongoing OPEC+ production policies and the new U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran, we see further upside potential for ton-mile demand in the near term.

Today, we are earning around $50,000 per day on the VLCCs and $45,000-$50,000 on the Suezmaxes. Many of the stronger fixtures we concluded after mid-January when the market firms will reflect in the last part of our Q1 earnings as well as in our Q2. Similarly to the full year 2024 results and based on peers that have reported earnings, our Q1 performance on fixed days stands at 7% outperformance for the VLCCs and 39% for the Suezmaxes. As we now move to slide 12, OET remains the only publicly listed pure play eco scrubber fitted tanker platform, enabling us to consistently outperform the market. Our VLCC and Suezmax fleets have delivered higher TCEs than our peer group for multiple years, reinforcing our competitive advantage.

In 2024, OET's VLCCs significantly outperformed peers, demonstrating the earnings power of our modern fleet and the strong performance of our commercial fleet. It is important to note that for Q4 2024, we have used guidance figures for peers that have not reported yet. We believe the gap will widen even further once actual rates are published. All in all, our chartering team, fuel-efficient vessels, scrubber advantage, and strategic trading patterns continue to differentiate OET in a volatile market. Now, let's discuss the market outlook and the latest market dynamics. On slide 13, we see the crude tanker market is experiencing a structural supply imbalance driven by an aging fleet and low newbuilding orders. By 2028, over 700 VLCCs and Suezmaxes will be more than 20 years old, while only around 200 vessels are scheduled for delivery in the same period, indicating a further tightening of supply.

Notably, this calculation does not even account for vessels over the age of 15 years old, which will be less efficient and by 2028 will represent 40%-50% of both segments. Additionally, the expanded sanction list now includes almost 10% of both VLCC and Suezmax fleets, while 20% of the total VLCC and Suezmax fleets operate in the dark fleet and with limited yard availability and rising shipbuilding costs, fleet expansion remains significantly constrained. Also, if sanction enforcement continues, the sanction fleet can double as we calculate 10% of the fleet is engaged in OPEC sanctionable activities, especially involved in Iranian and Venezuelan business, which is almost exclusively reliant on VLCCs. Against this backdrop, OET's modern fleet and eco position positions us well to capitalize on this supply constraint that's coming.

Now moving on to slide 14, crude demand is expected to outpace supply in 2025, driving increased ton-miles and higher fleet utilization. Key agencies forecast a continued recovery in oil demand, particularly from Asia. China had positive data with strong traveling around the Lunar New Year and a new record corporate borrowing in January. Refinery realignments and new sourcing routes are leading to longer voyages and greater tanker utilization. Geopolitical factors, sanctions, and shifting trade routes are further strengthening demand for modern compliant fleets like OET. We expect these factors to support higher fleet utilization and firmer rates in the coming quarters. From slides 15 to 18, we aim to illustrate the significance of sanctions-exposed trades and its potential impact on the conventional fleet in light of the latest wave of sanctions. The shadow fleet has expanded due to sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.

Approximately 20% of the global tanker fleet is now engaged in sanctioned trade, with 10% already being on the OPEC list, effectively reducing the supply of vessels available in the conventional market. As compliant measures tighten, compliant fleets will be more positioned to capture premium rates driven by higher utilization. We believe the market divide between compliant and non-compliant fleets will continue to widen, favoring modern, efficient, and transparent operators. As mentioned earlier, India, China, and Turkey are increasingly moving away from sanctions-exposed trade, seeking compliant crude from alternative routes. This shifts both ton-mile demand and the utilization of the conventional fleet. Slide 16 focuses on Iran, and given the new administration in the U.S., a potential decrease in Iranian exports to levels seen during the previous Trump administration could push conventional VLCC fleet utilization above 90%, which has historically led to very strong tanker market rates.

To conclude the presentation, a reduction in Russian and Iranian exports could generate a significant increase in demand for modern compliant VLCCs. If all Russian and Iranian barrels are lost and replaced by long-haul VLCC voyages, we estimate a need for an additional 20-60 VLCCs. The current fleet size, order book, and utilization of close to 88% do not support such an increase, reinforcing the bullish outlook for compliant modern fleets. OET is optimally positioned to capitalize on these shifts and generate strong cash flows for shareholders. During the Q4 softness, OET delivered a strong full-year performance and remains well-positioned for 2025. Market fundamentals remain supportive with tight supply, increasing ton-miles, and geopolitical shifts working in our favor. We will continue to optimize our fleet, maximize utilization, and capitalize on strategic advantages. With that, we thank you for your time and are happy to take any questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star two. Our first question comes from Liam Burke at B. Riley. Please go ahead.

Liam Burke (Managing Director)

Yes, thank you very much. In your prepared remarks, you laid out a number of strong reasons why there'll be tight capacity for the VLCC class going forward. What would you say are some of the positive pressures on Suezmax capacity going forward?

Aristidis Alafouzos (CEO)

Hi, Liam. Thank you for your question. A large part of the Russian trading fleet right now, moving the Russian barrels, uses Suezmax vessels. So over time, if we see further sanctioning of that fleet, it will further tighten the supply of Suezmax vessels.

And the age profile on that fleet is very old as well. In addition to that, and I think more importantly, we've seen that with the reduction of interest from Indians and Chinese for buying whether it's Russian and for the Chinese Iranian and Venezuelan barrels, it opens the door for longer-haul voyages on asset classes that are less efficient than the VLCCs. So you have to look at Suezmaxes. For example, a trend we've seen recently is that there's a big port in the Black Sea controlled predominantly by Western oil majors, including Chevron, called CPC. Historically, this port has lifted Aframax and Suezmax laden cargos because nothing larger than a Suezmax can fit laden through the Turkish Straits.

Because of the tightness due to the lack of purchasing of Iranian and Russian barrels, we've seen that there's been CPC cargoes that are moving again towards Asia, while since the Red Sea closed, this trade had completely stopped. In January, for example, prior to the sanctions in February, there were no cargoes that were sold in the east, while after the sanctions were put on in February, we already have 11 cargoes potentially going east just from this one port. So I think we'll see more barrels from whether West Africa, Libya, Algeria, the Black Sea moving east on the Suezmaxes, and we're quite constructive on the Suezmax segment.

Liam Burke (Managing Director)

Great. Thank you. You talked about a slow start to the first quarter 2025, and you announced the fixtures for both the Suezmax and VLCCs for most of the first quarter.

Then you followed by saying that there's strength into the end of the first quarter and into second quarter, which generally you think a second quarter would you see moderation in rates. What do you see into the second quarter as driving the rate momentum here?

Aristidis Alafouzos (CEO)

All right. Well, I think one thing to understand is that, especially on the VLCCs and if you're fixing longer voyages from the U.S. Gulf, you're going to be working very far ahead. So you're going to be working maybe even a month or a bit longer ahead. So in mid-December, we were negotiating a cargo that would load in mid or end January, and that voyage would last through Q1.

A weak fixture in Q4 might have little impact on actual Q4 and have a big impact on Q1 and maybe even I mean, if it's a round voyage from the U.S. Gulf East, which we don't do, but it could even bleed into Q2. I think what we were saying is that the fixtures that we fixed after January 15th, which was when Biden sanctioned the additional ships and the charters and squeezed the system, have improved a lot. But because those fixtures you're fixing maybe a month in advance from the U.S. Gulf on a VLCC or slightly less on a Suezmax, you'll only start feeling them towards the end of Q1 when the vessel actually loads and discharges, especially with the IFRS accounting principles, and they will roll into Q2 as well.

So, I think that our earnings for Q1 were also impacted by the IFRS TCE principles, which we have a bigger impact from. We're impacted at times more because of the slightly smaller fleets than some of our peers who have 50 or 60 ships, and three or four ships having a very bad effect by the principles. How you allocate the income makes a much bigger effect to us.

Liam Burke (Managing Director)

Great. Thank you very much.

Aristidis Alafouzos (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Bendik Nyttingnes from Clarksons Securities. Please go ahead.

Bendik Nyttingnes (VP of Equity and Credit Research)

Yes, thank you. So, to my understanding, you now have one Suezmax that is cleaned up, and that's the only one clean in your fleet as of now. Is that correct?

Aristidis Alafouzos (CEO)

Yeah, that's correct.

Bendik Nyttingnes (VP of Equity and Credit Research)

And I just wanted to ask a bit about the dynamic there because you have been cleaning up several of your VLCCs previously.

How easy is it going to be to switch those back into the clean trade? Is it easier now that you have cleaned them relatively recent, or is it going to take the same couple of weeks to get that done?

Aristidis Alafouzos (CEO)

No, once you go dirty, the cleaning process is more or less similar. Maybe it's slightly, but marginally easier, but we would allocate the same cost and time when we're budgeting for a voyage.

Bendik Nyttingnes (VP of Equity and Credit Research)

For the Suezmax now, do you expect to keep that trading clean, or is it as the other one sort of opportunistically positioned in the clean market for a single voyage?

Aristidis Alafouzos (CEO)

No. We basically sailed the discharge port in Asia. We had this clean opportunity. We compared it with a crude opportunity to come west and reposition the ship in the west.

The clean voyage made a little bit more money, and we knew the cargo was firm because with the counterparty we worked with before. So we took the opportunity to book it. I think once we come west, with almost certainty, I can say we'll go back into the crude market.

Bendik Nyttingnes (VP of Equity and Credit Research)

Okay. Thank you.

Aristidis Alafouzos (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Petter Haugen at ABG. Please go ahead.

Petter Haugen (Partner and Equity Research)

Good afternoon, guys. First, a question on the market. In terms of what can happen here, there are obviously lots of alternatives, but in terms of only the Red Sea transit, if we were to assume that, well, the only thing changing from now to the future is normal transits through the Red Sea again, how do you think that will impact your markets, the VLCC and the Suezmax markets?

Aristidis Alafouzos (CEO)

Hi, Petter. Thanks for your question.

Thanks for only asking one part of all these different elements like Russia and Iran because you can go on and speak for hours. But about the Red Sea, I think initially, most of these changes and disruptions that occurred to the oil markets are positive for tankers. I definitely think it would allow it would be positive for Suezmaxes because it'll bring back part of the trade which had been priced out just because of the cost to go around the Cape. This is principally either the Basrah West on Suezmaxes, which was a huge trade before, and that today has just been cannibalized by the VLCCs because they load two Basrah stems to go around the Cape, and also to see Mediterranean and Black Sea barrels going east again, which had completely stopped.

So I would say that overall for the Suezmaxes, it may be positive for the Red Sea to reopen.

Petter Haugen (Partner and Equity Research)

Okay. And for the VLCCs, do you think? Does it matter?

Aristidis Alafouzos (CEO)

I don't think it'll have a major impact for the VLCCs. There's been a lot of some of the people who have equity barrels and they discharge in the Red Sea and loading from the AG, they're using their own ships for this. So you might see a bit more business for the normal fleet to do this business. But I think for the VLCCs, they won't have the same impact as it will for the Suezmaxes.

Petter Haugen (Partner and Equity Research)

Okay. Thank you. If I could follow up with a few questions on what to use in valuation, really. So currently, we see brokers are quoting for the five-year Eco VLCC $112, similar for Suezmaxes at $74.

These numbers are obviously lower than they were last summer, but I would say it looks as if they're holding up quite well, although we haven't seen that, or at least I haven't seen that many relevant transactions here. In terms of 112 for a five-year-old VLCC and 74 for a five-year-old Suezmax, how do you think those numbers compare to if you were to see a transaction today in the market?

Aristidis Alafouzos (CEO)

Look, I think, as you correctly mentioned, there haven't been many transactions recently, so it's hard to benchmark where prices are today. At times, since last summer or the period you mentioned, the markets felt weaker a little bit. But as these potential developments happen around Iranian reduction in Iranian exports and Chinese imports of Iranian crude, I don't think that the VLCCs will fluctuate down very much at all.

I think that there is such a limited pool of sellers of five-year-old VLCCs that their values are quite firm. I think as well on the Suezmaxes, it's just the Suezmaxes have a much bigger order book and delivering sooner. So there may be some downside and potential market weakness on Suezmax values. But on the VLCCs, I'm pretty confident.

Petter Haugen (Partner and Equity Research)

I understand. Okay. Thank you. And a final one from me. In terms of, well, outlook here, I guess it's fair to say, my interpretation is that you're still pretty optimistic. But if given the opportunity to take coverage now, what would you deem to be interesting in terms of, say, one and three years for VLCCs and Suezmaxes?

Aristidis Alafouzos (CEO)

I mean, I think we have the classic Greek approach, which is 5,000 higher than the charter's ideas.

But, I mean, generally speaking, the market for TCEs, it gets a lot more liquid when the market is firming a lot. And so if there's an opportunity to time charter out some vessels, you have to take advantage of that when there's a big movement in spot rates and also in paper rates. Unfortunately, most of the charters today, they do tend to hedge a part or most of their TCE exposure using FFAs. So a liquid time charter market often needs to coincide with a liquid FFA market. And I think there's a lot of, if you're aware of when these opportunities present themselves, you can find some attractive deals to do. So it's something we've looked at in the past. We didn't really find it that attractive, but we will keep looking at it in the next spike as well.

Petter Haugen (Partner and Equity Research)

Okay. Thank you.

Thank you for that, color. That's all for me.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Climent Molins, Value Investor's Edge. Please go ahead.

Climent Molins (Head of Shipping Research)

Good afternoon. Thank you for this thorough presentation. Most has already been covered, but I wanted to delve a bit into the dark fleet and the sanctions currently in place on Russian trade. Could you give us some color on whether there are big differences on utilization of targeted vessels by European or United States sanctions? Do standalone European sanctions also have a large impact on efficiency?

Aristidis Alafouzos (CEO)

Hey, Climent, thanks for your question. I think by far the biggest impact on utilization is by U.S. sanctions. I don't think that the impact of E.U. sanctions or U.K. sanctions is very large to Chinese buyers, although it may be more pertinent to Indian and to Turkish buyers.

But for sure, utilization falls drastically once you enter the gray fleet, and then even more so if you're sanctioned by the E.U. or the U.K. And I think drastically so if you're sanctioned by the U.S. I mean, some of the research outlets like Kpler or even some of the shipping brokers, they do some really nice research on this, which I'm sure you can find some articles where they describe, and they go through each ship by ship and compute some nice data.

Climent Molins (Head of Shipping Research)

Makes sense. Thanks for the color. I'll turn it over. Thank you for taking my questions.

Operator (participant)

As a final call for any last questions, please press star one on your telephone keypad. We have no further questions on the call, so I'll hand the floor back to Iraklis for any closing remarks.

Iraklis Sbarounis (CFO)

Thank you. Thanks, everyone, for listening in.

I will look forward to catching up again in mid-May for Q1. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.