EI
electroCore, Inc. (ECOR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 revenue grew 23% year over year to $6.7M but was a slight miss versus S&P Global consensus ($6.72M actual vs $6.93M estimate; GAAP EPS -$0.47 vs -$0.447 estimate), with softness in U.S. commercial Rx and TAC-STIM offset by strong VA channel and Truvaga growth . Revenue Consensus Mean and EPS estimates from S&P Global shown with asterisks below.*
- Mix and operating cost seasonality mattered: gross margin held at 85% (up 100 bps YoY), but SG&A rose on seasonality and one-time NeuroMetrix transaction/severance (~$665k total) .
- Management introduced 2025 revenue guidance of ~$30M and net cash use for the next three quarters of $3.8–$4.3M, and reiterated mid‑80s gross margin expectations, framing a path to cash neutrality at ~$9M quarterly revenue via 65% contribution margins on incremental sales .
- Near-term catalysts: (1) five-year VA Federal Supply Schedule (FSS) contract effective June 15, 2025; (2) NeuroMetrix/Quell integration and potential lift in H2 2025–2026; (3) Truvaga expansion (Amazon channel, Apple Health integration) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
- What Went Well
- VA and wellness momentum: Rx gammaCore VA revenue up 22% YoY to $4.7M; Truvaga up 187% YoY to $1.1M; gross margin held at 85% . “We maintained gross margins...” .
- Structural wins: new five-year VA FSS contract begins June 15, 2025, supporting durable VA access .
- Portfolio expansion: closed NeuroMetrix; Quell added ~$170k unaudited Q1 net sales and broadens addressable market; pilot distribution for Spark Biomedical’s Sparrow underway in limited VA sites .
- What Went Wrong
- Softer channels: U.S. commercial Rx down 33% YoY to $289k as cash-pay users migrate to Truvaga; TAC-STIM down 70% YoY to $90k and remains lumpy .
- Higher operating costs: SG&A rose on seasonality, severance, and NeuroMetrix transaction-related expenses (~$665k) .
- Cash burn: cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities fell to ~$8.0M at 3/31/25 (from ~$12.2M at 12/31/24), and net cash used in operating activities in Q1 was $4.4M (seasonal) .
Financial Results
Revenue, EPS, and Gross Margin vs prior year and consensus
- Q1 2025 revenue and EPS were slight misses vs S&P Global consensus; gross margin matched management’s mid‑80s expectation . Revenue Consensus Mean and EPS from S&P Global shown with asterisks.*
Quarterly revenue trend (for context)
Channel/segment detail (YoY)
Profitability and operating metrics
KPIs
Non-GAAP adjustments include D&A, stock comp, inventory reserve changes, severance/other related charges, and one-time transaction charges related to NeuroMetrix, among others; reconciliation provided in the release .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “electroCore delivered continued growth in the first quarter, increasing total revenue 23% and growing total revenue excluding TAC-STIM by 29%.”
- “We maintained gross margins but incurred increased G&A expenses… seasonality… severance… and… NeuroMetrix transaction, for a combined $665,000…”
- “March and April ’25 monthly revenues in our VA channel have accelerated to about $1.7 million.”
- “We model that the business could be cash neutral with quarterly revenue of about $9 million… toward the end of this year or early in 2026.”
- “We received a new FSS contract… effective on June 15, 2025, for at least 5 years until 2030.”
- On Quell margin: “I’m optimistic that we’ll be well above the 60% mark [gross margin], but… we’ll have better numbers… in 90 days.”
Q&A Highlights
- Quell integration and margin outlook: Management expects better overhead absorption than legacy NURO; supply-limited near term; targeting >60% GM but specifics pending manufacturing restart in Rockaway .
- Tariff exposure: Minimal; parts largely domestic/S.E. Asia; even doubling some component costs would be only a few GM points .
- TAC-STIM trajectory: Lumpy and hard to model; near-term ~$100k/quarter; larger RFPs outstanding but timing uncertain .
- VA growth and salesforce: New 5-year FSS; adding W‑2 managers and 1099 reps to reaccelerate VA and integration of Quell/Sparrow .
- Truvaga KPIs: ROAS ~2.26; scaling media 5% monthly; early Amazon traction with a few hundred units sold since mid‑Feb .
- Cash/capex cadence: Q1 operating cash outflow $4.4M due to seasonal/legal/audit; modeling ~$4.0M net cash required for rest of 2025 .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $6.72M vs $6.93M estimate (slight miss); GAAP EPS -$0.47 vs -$0.447 estimate (slight miss). Management cited seasonal one-time costs and mix (soft TAC-STIM, U.S. commercial Rx decline) offset by VA/Truvaga strength . Revenue and EPS consensus values marked with asterisks below.*
- Forward consensus (as of current period): revenue estimates rise into 2026; EPS loss narrows sequentially (see table). These imply modest upward trajectory consistent with management’s ~$30M FY25 revenue outlook and path to improved cash burn .
Forward consensus (S&P Global)*
Q1 2025 point-in-time consensus (S&P Global)*
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- VA resilience + contracting durability: The new five‑year FSS and sequential VA rebound (Mar/Apr run‑rate) underpin near-term growth and visibility in the core Rx channel .
- Portfolio catalysts layered onto established channels: Quell (closed) and Sparrow (pilots) create incremental growth vectors in H2’25/2026 through the VA and DTC ecosystems .
- DTC flywheel: Truvaga growth remains strong with improving channel breadth (Amazon, Apple Health), ROAS >2x, and a systematic 5% monthly media ramp—supporting continued mix diversity and contribution leverage .
- Margins steady; cost discipline matters: Mid‑80s gross margin intact; S&M variable at ~30% of sales with fixed G&A aligned to 2024, enabling operating leverage as revenue scales .
- Cash path: Management modeling ~$3.8–$4.3M net cash use across Q2–Q4 and a cash-neutral inflection around ~$9M quarterly revenue, framing potential upside if Quell ramps faster than expected .
- Modeling notes: Expect continued VA-led growth with U.S. commercial Rx flat near-term (cash-pay migration to Truvaga), TAC‑STIM lumpy; watch Quell manufacturing restart and VA add‑to‑contract timing for upside risk .
- Trading setup: Slight top- and bottom-line misses appear execution- and mix‑driven against steady GM and healthy VA/DTC trends; narrative likely pivots to contract durability (FSS), NeuroMetrix integration updates, and DTC channel KPIs as near-term stock catalysts .