EuroDry - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the EuroDry Limited conference call on the first quarter 2025 financial results. We have with us today Mr. Aristides Pittas, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Thasos Aslidis, Chief Financial Officer of the company. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session, at which time, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today. Please be reminded that the company announced its results with a press release that has been publicly distributed. Before passing the floor to Mr. Pittas, I would like to remind everyone that in today's presentation and conference call, EuroDry will be making forward-looking statements.

These statements are within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Matters discussed may be forward-looking statements which are based on current management expectations, but involve risks and uncertainties that may result in such expectations not being realized. I kindly draw your attention to slide number two of the webcast presentation, which has the full forward-looking statement, and the same statement was also included in the press release. Please take a moment to go through the whole statement and read it. I would like to pass the floor over to Mr. Pittas. Please go ahead, sir.

Aristides Pittas (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you all for joining us today for our scheduled conference call. Together with me is Mr. Thasos Aslidis, our Chief Financial Officer. The purpose of today's call is to discuss our financial results for the three-month period ended March 31, 2025. Please turn to slide three of the presentation for our quarterly financial highlights. In the first quarter of 2025, we reported total net revenues of $9.2 million and a net loss attributable to controlling shareholders of $3.7 million, or $1.35 lost per basic and diluted share. Adjusted net loss attributable to controlling shareholders for the quarter was $5.7 million, or $2.707 lost per basic and diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA for the period stood at a negative $1 million. Please refer to the press release for the reconciliation of adjusted net loss and adjusted EBITDA.

Our CFO, Tasos Aslidis, will anyway go over our financial highlights in more detail later in the presentation. Since initiating our $10 million share repurchase program in August 2022, which has been extended twice since then until August 2025, we have repurchased 334,000 shares of our common stock in the open market, totaling $5.3 million. We intend to continue executing repurchases opportunistically at current price levels, reflecting our confidence in the company's long-term value. Please turn to slide four to view our recent chartering and operational developments. Firstly, please note that we delivered the motor vessel Thasos to her buyers, as had been arranged during the previous quarter. The company recorded a net book profit of $2.1 million. On the chartering front, the majority of our fixtures are short-term or longer-term betting index-based.

We do not wish to commit our vessels to the current low rates offered and prefer to be able to maintain operational flexibility and fix longer-term when the market recovers. There were no scheduled dry dockings or repair activities during the quarter. However, motor vessel Blacklock was commercially off-hire for approximately 11.6 days during the quarter, and whilst arranging the sale and delivery of motor vessel Thasos, it also experienced a total of six and a half days of commercial off-hire. You can see the specifics of the various charters we fixed during the period in the accompanying presentation. Please turn to slide five. EuroDry's current fleet consists of 12 vessels with an average age of around 13.6 years and a total carrying capacity of approximately 843,000 deadweight tons.

In addition, we have two Ultramax vessels under construction with capacities of 63,500 deadweight tons each, scheduled for delivery in the second and third quarters of 2027. Upon delivery, our fleet will grow to 14 vessels with a total carrying capacity of approximately 970,000 deadweight tons. At this point, I'd like to remind you that EuroDry owns 61% of the entities that own motor vessels Christos K and Maria. The remaining 39% is owned by owners represented by NRP Project Finance, otherwise referred to as the NRP investors. Next, please turn to slide six for a further update on our fleet employment. As of March 31, our fixed rate coverage for the remainder of the year stands at approximately 22% based on existing time charter agreements. This figure excludes our five vessels operating under index-linked charters, which are subject to market fluctuations but have secured employment.

Turning to an overview of the market on slide eight, we will go over the dry bulk market highlights for the first quarter of 2025 up until recently. The market has been softer in Q1 2025, with average spot rates at less than $8,000 per day for Panamax vessels and average one-year time charter rates standing at a little less than $12,000 per day for the same type of vessels. On the last day of the quarter, March 30, both spot and one-year time charter rates appeared to be higher across all segments, as shown on the slide. However, by the end of last week, spot rates had dropped across the board. In the Panamax segment, rates have dropped as much as 28%, while one-year time charter rates in the same segment have dropped as much as 12%, from $13,125 per day to $11,500 per day.

Both the Baltic Panamax Index and the Baltic Dry Index experienced notable contractions during the first quarter, declining by approximately 27% and 16% year-on-year, respectively. These developments highlight the continued weakness in trade markets driven by weaker demand, muted cargo volumes, and uncertain macroeconomic conditions. Please now turn to slide nine. The IMF's April 2025 update presents a more cautious global economic outlook, revising its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 downward to 2.8% from 3.3% projected in January. Global growth in 2026 is expected to edge up modestly to 3%, but still lower than the 3.3% expected previously. The revision reflects mounting downside risks, intensified by the U.S. announcements of multiple tariffs on major trade departments and sectors. These global tensions and heightened policy uncertainty have shaped the outlook for 2025 and 2026.

The United States' projected growth rate has been reduced by nearly 1% to 1.8% GDP growth for 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, from the previously expected 2.8% and 2.1%, respectively. However, the other advanced economies have also taken a beating compared to previous expectations, with Europe's growth forecast at just 0.8% this year and 1.2% next year. Many European countries continue to face subdued domestic demand, manufacturing weakness, and the lingering effects of the energy shock. U.S. government policy remains largely in focus these days through the direct impacts of tariffs and possible counter-tariffs. Of course, these have the potential to have wider implications.

Global inflation continues to trend downwards, but at a pace that is slightly slower than what was expected in January, with headline inflation reaching 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with notable upward revisions for advanced economies and slight downward revisions for emerging markets and developing markets in 2025. However, the near-term path to price stability remains uneven. Persistent services and wage inflation in several economies, coupled with rising protectionism and demographic headwinds, may delay full convergence to target inflation levels. As a result, central banks are expected to maintain a more cautious approach to monetary easing than had previously been thought. Emerging markets remain the primary drivers of global growth. India is forecast to expand by 6.2% and 6.3% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, fueled by strong investment, robust agriculture, and the dynamic services sector. The ASEAN five countries are also projected to post healthy gains.

In China, growth has been revised downward to 4% in both 2025 and 2026. As in addition to the Trump-induced effects, structural challenges persist, particularly around weak domestic consumption, deflationary pressures, and instability in the property sector. Turning to the dry bulk sector specifically, Clarkson Research now projects a significant deceleration in trade growth, with ton-mile demand expected to contract by 0.2% in 2025, following strong growth of 4.3% in 2024. A modest recovery of 0.6% is anticipated in 2026. This reflects the increased macroeconomic headwinds and softening industrial activity across major demand centers, including, of course, these new tariffs that may reduce global trade and reallocate flows across countries. While supply constraints and environmental regulations may offer some relief, geopolitical risks in the Red Sea persist and will likely continue across 2025, but will probably end by 2026.

In light of these projections, we still remain cautious of the outlook for the dry bulk sector. Please turn to slide ten. Let's review now the current state of the order book in the dry bulk sector. As you can see, as of May 2025, the order book is currently at 10.5% of the fleet, still standing amongst the lowest historical levels, though higher than the 7% low seen just after the COVID pandemic started in 2021. Turning to slide eleven, let us look into the supply fundamentals in a bit more detail. As of May 2025, the total dry bulk vessel operating fleet was 14,300 vessels. According to Clarkson Research's latest report, new deliveries as a percentage of total fleet are expected to be 3.8% in 2025, 3.9% in 2026, and 3.6% in 2027 onwards.

The actual fleet growth is, of course, expected to be lower than the aforementioned figures due to higher scrubbing rates and slippage. On the fleet sales profile, it is noticeable that about 10% of the fleet is older than 20 years old, indicating these vessels will likely be scrapped if the dry bulk sector continues operating in this suppressed environment. Please turn to slide twelve, where we summarize our outlook for the dry bulk market. The bulk carrier sector has faced a relatively weak start to 2025. Time charter rates bottomed out in the first quarter, briefly recovering to profitable levels across all vessel classes by the end of the quarter. However, the turbulent momentum has since faded, largely in response to the U.S. administration's new tariff proposals and effects. Demand-side pressures continue to mount. Geopolitical instability and a slowdown in key markets have contributed to growing uncertainty.

Average trip charter rates for Ultramax and vessels are currently now down approximately 25% year-over-year. Looking ahead, the demand outlook for the remainder of 2025 suggests an overall softer market relative to 2024. In China, dry bulk import volumes are not expected to replicate the robust growth experienced over the 2023-2024 period. While recent government stimulus measures have improved sentiment, they are unlikely to translate into a structural increase in demand, particularly given high existing stockpiles. In the U.S., trade policy under the new Trump administration has become a major source of concern for dry bulk markets. Proposed tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada, and other key partners pose a threat to grain and minor bulk trade flows, especially if retaliatory actions escalate trade tensions.

Shipping activity through the Red Sea remains disrupted, and while any de-escalation could support operational stability, a reduction in rerouting may also temper ton-mile demand, thereby easing pressure on rates. On the supply side, new building activity remains constrained. Shipyard capacity remains tight, and many owners are hesitant to place orders amid continued uncertainties surrounding the industry's long-term fuel transition. Although methanol and LNG fueled orders have increased, the lack of clarity around the fuel of the future has contributed to a relatively low order book to fleet ratio. That said, the order book for Panamax and Ultramax vessels, which has increased to 13.5%, is trending towards historical median levels of 17.5%, still low, but not that low.

For 2026, we still do not expect a strong recovery unless demand growth and ton-mile growth surprise positively and exceed the historically low expected supply growth of below 2% after adjusting for scrapping. What could influence the market positively is the regulatory environment, as emissions-related measures—EEXI, CII, EU ETS, and Fuel EU Maritime—could lead to increased vessel scrapping and lower operating speeds, particularly among all the less efficient ships. These developments may tighten effective supply over time, setting the stage for rate support if demand stabilizes. Let's turn to slide thirteen. As of May 30, 2025, the one-year time charter rate for Panamax vessels with a capacity of 75,000 deadweight tons stands at approximately $11,500 per day, which remains below the historical median of $13,500 per day.

At the same time, however, the market for 10-year-old Panamax bulk carriers remains relatively firm, with current asset values estimated at approximately $24 million. This is significantly above both the historical 10-year median of $15 million and the 10-year average of $17.5 million, reflecting residual strength in second-hand values. This can be explained by the increased cost to build new vessels and the full order book of existing yards, plus the fact that vessel owners have accumulated significant profits over the years and are on standby mode to reinvest. Although current pricing marks a clear decline from the mid-2024 peak of $29.5 million, we believe values can drop further in the next few months unless we witness an unexpected market recovery. We are closely monitoring the developments.

We intend to use the market moves and financial tools available to us in such a way as to optimize the modernization of our fleet. For sure, good markets will reappear at some point, and we should be ready for them. Let me now pass the floor over to our CFO, Tasos Aslidis, to go over various financial highlights in more detail.

Tasos Aslidis (CFO)

Thank you very much, Aristides. Good morning from me as well, ladies and gentlemen. Over the next four slides, I will give you the usual overview of our financial highlights for the first quarter of 2025 and compare those results to the same period of last year. For that, let's turn to slide fifteen.

For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported total net revenues of $9.2 million, representing a 36.2% decrease over total net revenues of $14.4 million during the first quarter of 2024, which was the result of the decreased time charter rates our vessels earned during the first quarter of this year and also the decreased number of vessels owned and operated during this period compared to the same period of last year. The company reported a net loss for the period of $4 million and a net loss attributable to controlling shareholders of $3.7 million as compared to a net loss of $1.9 million and a net loss attributable to controlling shareholders of $1.8 million for the same period the first quarter of 2024.

The net loss attributable to non-controlling interest of $0.3 million in the first quarter of this year represents the loss associated with a 39% ownership of the entities owning our vessels, Christos K and Maria. Interest, another financing cost, net of a small amount of interest income for the first quarter of 2025, decreased to $1.8 million as compared to $2 million for the same period of 2024. Interest expense during the first quarter of 2025 was lower, mainly due to the decreased benchmark rates our loans were charged, partially offset by the increased average debt we carried during the quarter as compared to the same quarter of last year. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2025 was a negative $1 million compared to $2.1 million achieved during the first quarter of 2024.

Basic diluted loss per share attributable to controlling shareholders for the first quarter of 2025 was $1.35, calculated on about 2.7 million basic diluted weighted average number of shares outstanding, compared to basic diluted loss per share of $0.65 for the first quarter of last year, calculated again on about 2.7 million basic diluted weighted average number of shares outstanding. Excluding the effect on the net loss attributable to controlling shareholders for the quarter of the unrealized gain or loss on derivatives, and excluding the net gain on sale of vessels, the adjusted loss for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, would have been $2.07 per share basically diluted compared to an adjusted loss of $1.18 per share basically diluted for the quarter ended March 31, 2024. Let's now turn to slide sixteen to review our fleet's performance.

As usual, we will start our review by first examining the utilization rates for the first quarter of this year and comparing them to the same period of the previous year. Our fleet utilization rate, as usual, is broken down into commercial and operational. During the first quarter of 2025, our commercial utilization rate was 98.4%, while our operational utilization rate was 99% compared to 100% commercial and 98.1% operational for the same period of last year. Our overall utilization rate was in the first quarter of this year 97.4% compared to 98.1% in the respective quarter of 2024. Our total daily operating expenses, including management fees, general, and administrative expenses, but excluding direct costs, were $7,304 per vessel per day during the first quarter of this year compared to $6,867 per vessel per day for the first quarter of 2024.

If we move further down on this table, we can see the cash flow break-even levels, which takes into account, in addition to the above, the directing expenses, interest expenses, and loan repayments. Thus, for the first quarter of 2025, our daily cash flow break-even level was $11,528 per vessel per day compared to $12,962 per vessel per day for the same period of last year, primarily because of minimal directing expenses this period. Let's now turn our attention to slide seventeen to review our debt profile. As of March 31, 2025, EuroDry's outstanding debt stood at $105.2 million. Total loan repayments during 2025 are expected to amount to approximately $12.1 million, including the $3 million paid already during the first quarter. In 2026, we expect to have loan repayments of $13.3 million, including a payment of the $2 million balloon.

In 2027, repayments amount to about $10 million, but there is also a balloon of $10.2 million related to the loan for our vessel Ekaterini, which would mature at the time and will very likely refinance. An important point to highlight in this slide is the other margin of our debt, which as of March 31, 2025, stood at approximately 2.07% over SOFR. Assuming a three-month SOFR rate of 4.32%, the estimated cost of our senior debt was around 6.4%. In reality, our cost is slightly lower as we can swap a portion of our debt into a lower fixed rate. As a result of that, our effective cost of our senior debt would be approximately 6.3%. At the bottom of this slide, we can see our projected cash flow break-even level for the next 12 months, broken down again into its various components.

Our EBITDA break-even level is projected to be at around $7,733 per vessel per day over the next 12 months, while our overall cash flow break-even level we expect it to be approximately $11,935 per vessel per day. Taking into account commissions and possible off-hire days, we need to have a gross average time charter equivalent rate of around $13,000 to cash flow break-even. Let's now conclude our presentation by moving to slide eighteen, where we can see some highlights from our balances in a simplified way. This slide offers a quick snapshot of our assets and liabilities. As of March 31 of this year, trust and other assets stood at about $21.5 million in our balances, while we also had made advances for the new buildings of about $7.2 million.

The book value of our vessels was approximately $182 million, resulting in total book value of assets of about $211 million. On our liability side, our debt, again as of March 31, 2025, as I previously mentioned, stood at about $105.2 million, amounting to about 49.8% of the book value of our assets, while other liabilities amounted to about $4 million, or almost 2% of our total assets, resulting in turn into a book shareholders' equity of $93.3 million, which in turn translates to a net book value of $33 per share. However, according to market reports and our estimates, our vessels as of March 31, 2025, were worth $32 million more than their book value, approximately $214 million, thus resulting in net asset value per share of more than $43, almost $44 per share.

In comparison to that, our current share price, trading between $8 and $9, highlights a big discount to NAV, and the potential appreciation should market conditions and rates improve. As Warren Buffett once said, "A tide lifts all boats," and certainly in this case, it will lift our boat more than others since we'll start from a lower base. With that, I will turn our floor back to Aristides to proceed with the ball.

Aristides Pittas (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you very much, Tasos, and let me now open up the floor for any questions you may have.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, sir. If you'd like to ask a question at this time, you may press Star 1 from your telephone keypad, and the confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star 2 if you'd like to withdraw your question from the queue.

For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the Star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions, and once again, that's Star 1. Thank you. Thank you. Our first question today is from the line of Mark Reichman with Noble Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.

Mark Reichman (Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you for taking my questions. Vessel operating expenses compared to the prior year period rose, I guess, due to the spare parts and maintenance. I was wondering, should we expect this level of spending to continue in Q2 and Q3, or was this front-loaded?

Tasos Aslidis (CFO)

I think, judging from the first quarter numbers, it's a little bit premature. Our budget for OPEX this year was 2% higher than our last year's budget.

During the first quarter, we had a 2% overrun of our budget, but it's hard to say from just one quarter. I mean, the timing of certain expenses could distort the picture. I would wait at least until the first half is completed to make a statement about the OPEX levels. Certainly, we expect to meet our budget, which was 2% higher than last year's results.

Mark Reichman (Senior Research Analyst)

What's your forecast for scheduled commercial and operational off-hire days for the remainder of the year, particularly for the dry docking?

Tasos Aslidis (CFO)

I mean, I think we have one dry docking. We just had one dry docking during this year, which is going to happen soon. Otherwise, we don't have any other scheduled stoppages. We will have to see how the charter market plays out.

If the market is very poor, we might have some increased commercial off-hire, but we would not expect, and we are not budgeting really anything more than one day per month. One and a half days per quarter. Per quarter. One and a half days per quarter. It is our running assumption, generic assumption about off-hire.

Mark Reichman (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. And then just the last question is, you had sold the MV Tasos, and I was just wondering if you could provide some commentary on how you are managing your fleet via vessel acquisitions, sales, joint ventures, or even mergers or acquisitions with other operators.

Tasos Aslidis (CFO)

As you said, we sold our eldest vessel. Our strategy is to eventually sell the other four elder vessels and replace them with younger vessels. This is going to happen depending on how the markets move during the next few months.

Yes, the modernization of the fleet is what we're looking at. We'll take delivery of our two new buildings in 2027, and especially if the market remains low, as is possible, that would probably allow us to buy a couple more modern vessels.

Mark Reichman (Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you very much.

Tasos Aslidis (CFO)

Thank you, Mark.

Operator (participant)

Next question comes from the line of Tate Sullivan with Maxim Group. Please proceed with your questions.

Tate Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you. Good day. From your comments on the scrapping of the vessel in the first quarter, do you have active opportunities to scrap the other old vessels? Is there a quick negotiation time to decide to scrap and do so, please?

Aristides Pittas (Chairman and CEO)

We scrapped the Thasos, which was built 2000, right? The Belflag, which is known as Belflag, the Santa Cruz, which has a dry dock due as well in a few months, we've decided to pass that.

The other vessels that are built 2004, they've passed the special survey. Usually, that's when we consider if we're going to pass a vessel through special survey or scrap it. We do not have any scrap candidates at this point in time, even though there are ships we feel that they can continue trading in today's market. Have you seen a pickup in scrap activity besides your vessel in the first quarter in the dry dock? I would say very slight pickup. There has been a pickup, a very slight pickup. Let's see how the market develops within the next three to six months. If it does not recover strongly, I think we will see more scrapping coming in.

Tate Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

For your fleet, have you seen the average voyage length in terms of the distances increase or decrease from last year in general?

Aristides Pittas (Chairman and CEO)

No, that is steady.

It's pretty steady because the vessels are usually on time charter trips, i.e., one trip, one business per time charter. Recently, we've added a few ships on index-based charters, so we have employment guaranteed for longer-term periods for a year, most of them. There is for the charterer to decide how the vessel will trade, and we will get what the market is, what the index gives us. We are indeed dependent on where the index trades at.

Tate Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Yes. I was just wondering with all the news of trade negotiations and tariffs if there's any sign of changes in trade patterns too.

Aristides Pittas (Chairman and CEO)

Yes. The only trade pattern that we've seen is that we haven't passed Suez for quite some time, and we've gone around the Cape, which increases distances a bit. That's on the occasional business from the Far East to the Med.

Tate Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Any anecdotal evidence from your fleet of any port loading or unloading times taking longer due to any inspections or tariff levies or anything like that? I haven't heard any, but I would be interested in your comments.

Aristides Pittas (Chairman and CEO)

No, we haven't really seen that effect yet.

Tate Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. And last, thank you. Then you mentioned you saw high stockpiles in China. What specifically? Is it coal, iron ore, and grain, all the dry bulk goods, or something specific, please, that you've seen?

Aristides Pittas (Chairman and CEO)

I had in mind more the coal and the iron ore. I don't often have the numbers for grain.

Tate Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. Okay. Wonderful. Okay. Thank you very much. Have a great day.

Tasos Aslidis (CFO)

Thank you.

Aristides Pittas (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Tate.

Operator (participant)

It's Paul. You may go ahead. Your line is live for questions.

Oh, I apologize. I missed the call. Hello, Tasos. Hello, Aristides. Can you just talk about the new build program?

I'd like to lobby that you rename or you name one of the new builds Tasos so that you have a Tasos in the fleet. Can you just talk about the it didn't look like you spent much in new builds in the quarter. Will there be any new build payments in the rest of the year? Maybe if you could remind me how much you plan to spend on new builds in 2026.

Tasos Aslidis (CFO)

I think we have one more payment to make possibly towards the end of this year. In the fourth quarter, there might need to be 10% installment for each of the two vessels. It might not happen. The contract says not before that date, but we count on having to make a payment 3.66, 7.2 in total for the two ships.

Do you have a figure for 2026, Tasos?

I think we're making five payments of 10% and then 50% at delivery. There should be at least another two payments per vessel in 2026. A total of $14.4 million in 2026, and then a 10% payment and the final payment in 2027.

Great. That's helpful. It didn't look like you bought any stock back in the first quarter. Is there anything that prevented you from buying stock back? Can you just comment on buyback activity and why there wasn't any in the first quarter?

Aristides Pittas (Chairman and CEO)

Two reasons for this. One reason is the very, very limited liquidity that we see in the stock during the last few months. That is one thing. The second thing is the market was improving up till the end of March, and the truth is we felt that it would improve further.

But it did improve, but the last month in May, it dropped again. So probably we are at levels where if the liquidity allows us, we will be buying some more stock.

Great. Thank you, Aristides.

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, we've reached the end of our question-and-answer session, and I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Aristides Pittas for closing remarks.

Aristides Pittas (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, everybody, for standing by. We will be back to you at the end of the beginning, yeah, of next quarter. Of August. Exactly. Okay. Thank you.

Tasos Aslidis (CFO)

Bye-bye. Thanks for attending.

This will conclude today's conference. May I disconnect your lines at this time? Thank you for your participation. Have a wonderful day.