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    Excelerate Energy (EE)

    EE Q1 2025: Gas Sales Up $100M for Second Straight Quarter

    Reported on May 8, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$27.50Last close (May 8, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$27.54Open (May 9, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.04(+0.15%)
    • Consistent Strong Gas Sales Growth: The Q&A highlighted that gas sales have been up over $100 million in two consecutive quarters, indicating robust market demand and effective deal execution.
    • Diversified Revenue Sources: The increase was driven by the Atlantic Basin deal along with three additional cargoes (two into Asia and one into Europe), showcasing the company’s global reach and diversified customer base.
    • Stable, Fixed Contract Business Model: The deals were locked in on a fixed basis, which provides revenue stability and predictability, reinforcing a resilient earnings profile.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +57% (Q1 2025: $315.1M vs. Q1 2024: $200.1M)

    Strong revenue growth driven by an expanded market presence, particularly in Asia Pacific ($122.65M) and Europe ($72.06M), which now account for roughly 62% of the overall revenue. This expansion marks a significant improvement over the previous period’s geographic revenue mix, indicating successful market penetration and customer acquisition efforts.

    Operating Cash Flow

    +139% (Q1 2025: $154,809K vs. Q1 2024: $64,661K)

    The substantial increase in Operating Cash Flow reflects both the dramatic revenue growth and improved operational efficiency over the prior period. Enhanced working capital management and cost controls have contributed to a leap in cash generation, compared to the more modest performance in Q1 2024.

    Income Before Taxes

    +48% (Q1 2025: $52,000K vs. Q1 2024: $35,041K)

    The growth in Income Before Taxes is primarily a result of the increased revenue base and enhanced operational performance. The improvement from $35,041K to $52,000K indicates that higher revenues have been partly translated into better profitability margins compared to the previous period.

    Interest Expense

    +23% (Q1 2025: $14,900K vs. Q1 2024: $12,146K)

    Interest Expense rose as a likely consequence of increased debt levels or adjustments in financing terms, which were lower in the previous period. This increment, moving from $12,146K to $14,900K, suggests that financing costs have grown, likely due to strategic borrowing decisions aimed at supporting the expanded operations.

    Restructuring Expense

    Newly reported at $4,500K in Q1 2025

    The appearance of a Restructuring Expense line at $4,500K in Q1 2025 indicates the initiation of strategic cost optimization or organizational changes that were not present in Q1 2024. This new expense reflects the company’s forward-looking efforts to adjust its operational structure, possibly to better align with the rapid revenue and operational growth.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2025

    $340 million to $360 million

    None

    no current guidance

    Maintenance Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

    FY 2025

    $60 million to $70 million

    None

    no current guidance

    Committed Growth Capital

    FY 2025

    $65 million to $75 million

    None

    no current guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Consistent strong gas sales growth and effective deal execution

    Q4 2024 called out LNG optimization and the early part of the Atlantic Basin deal ; Q3 2024 noted margins improving due to gas sales ; Q2 2024 focused on other project details.

    Q1 2025 emphasized over $100 million incremental gas sales for two consecutive quarters driven by effective fixed‐price deals (including Atlantic Basin, Asia, and Europe).

    Consistent performance with improved execution clarity and a continued focus on locking in fixed-price, stable deals.

    Diversified revenue streams with global market penetration

    Not mentioned in Q2, Q3, or Q4 earnings calls [...].

    No mention in Q1 2025 earnings call.

    This topic is no longer discussed, suggesting a deprioritization or shift in focus away from global diversification narratives.

    Stable fixed-price contract business model for revenue predictability

    Q4 2024 discussed strong take‐or‐pay models and continuous cash collections ; Q3 2024 highlighted a contract portfolio underpinning future revenue ; Q2 2024 emphasized high predictability with take‑or‑pay obligations.

    Q1 2025 reiterated that all LNG deals are locked in on a fixed basis with back‑to‑back agreements for predictability.

    A consistent theme with reaffirmed commitment, indicating stability in revenue predictability over time.

    Expansion into high‑demand LNG markets (Vietnam, Alaska, Atlantic Basin)

    Q4 2024 focused on ongoing discussions in Vietnam and Alaska plus completed Atlantic Basin deals ; Q3 2024 detailed strategic partnerships in Vietnam, exploration in Alaska, and midterm Atlantic Basin agreements ; Q2 2024 provided detailed project plans for Vietnam and Alaska.

    Q1 2025 highlighted active pursuits in Vietnam and strong Atlantic Basin sales with additional cargo deals; notably, Alaska was not mentioned.

    Expansion remains key, though the de‑emphasis of Alaska in Q1 2025 may indicate a strategic re‑prioritization toward Vietnam and Atlantic Basin markets.

    Advanced re‑liquefaction technology investments for FSRU efficiency

    Q2 2024 provided comprehensive details on re‑liquefaction kit orders, deployment plans, and financial benefits ; Q3 2024 mentioned ordering the first reliquefaction kit and commercial discussions ; Q4 2024 talked about capital earmarked for a reliquefaction kit with Wartsila.

    Q1 2025 did not explicitly mention advanced re‑liquefaction technology but noted that the new FSRU incorporates best‑in‑class boil‑off technology learned over 23 years.

    The focus shifted from explicit investment details to highlighting enhanced boil‑off efficiency, suggesting maturation of the technology integration rather than new investment announcements.

    LNG carrier acquisition and FSRU conversion projects

    Q2 2024 discussed both new‑build FSRU progress (Hull 3407) and conversion trade‐offs ; Q3 2024 detailed versatile acquisition and conversion project plans with shorter timelines ; Q4 2024 provided extensive insights into inspection, cost, and shipyard access for acquisition and conversion.

    Q1 2025 confirmed active pursuit of an LNG carrier acquisition and conversion project with ongoing discussions and target acquisition in 2025, plus engineering milestones set for mid‑2025.

    This topic maintains strong momentum with clear progression in timelines and engineering, reflecting consistent strategic priority for fleet expansion.

    Inorganic growth strategies and acquisition opportunities

    Q2 2024 noted an agnostic stance on growth via organic or M&A ; Q3 2024 mentioned ongoing discussions on inorganic opportunities ; Q4 2024 alluded to growth opportunities but with less emphasis on acquisition specifics.

    Q1 2025 prominently featured the Jamaica acquisition—a $1 billion deal—to integrate an LNG and power platform, marking a clear emphasis on inorganic expansion.

    A notable shift towards a major acquisition strategy in Q1 2025, indicating increased appetite for inorganic growth and reallocation of capital.

    Locked‑in LNG contracts and pricing agreements

    Q2 2024 discussed take‑or‑pay obligations and secure pricing for projects like Cook Inlet and Vietnam ; Q3 2024 detailed midterm agreements, a 15‑year deal in Bangladesh, and a 20‑year arrangement with Venture Global ; Q4 2024 emphasized long‑term contracts supporting predictable cash flows.

    Q1 2025 reiterated that all LNG deals are structured on a fixed basis with back‑to‑back agreements to secure stable revenue.

    Consistent emphasis on locking in long‑term contracts to mitigate price volatility, reinforcing the stable revenue narrative across periods.

    Capital expenditure challenges and maintenance CapEx concerns

    Q2 2024 highlighted maintenance spending and new‑build milestone payments, noting challenges with dry‑dock cost timing ; Q3 2024 described 2024 maintenance CapEx and anticipated off‑hire impacts in 2025 due to dry docks ; Q4 2024 detailed maintenance CapEx ranges, capitalized dry dock costs, and committed growth capital allocations.

    Q1 2025 provided updated guidance on maintenance CapEx ($60–$70 million) and committed growth capital (with specified milestone payments for Hull 3407) while noting timing shifts in vessel maintenance activities.

    The discussion remains consistent, with periodic updates on scheduled expenditures and timing adjustments reflecting a stable though dynamic CapEx environment.

    Fleet reliability and operational efficiency uncertainties

    Q2 2024 confirmed investments to maintain high fleet reliability and introduced modular re‑liquefaction to boost efficiency ; Q3 2024 did not provide explicit details; Q4 2024 proudly announced a record fleet reliability of 99.9% while acknowledging the challenge of sustaining such high performance year‑after‑year.

    Q1 2025 did not mention fleet reliability or operational efficiency uncertainties.

    The omission in Q1 2025 suggests a reduced emphasis on this topic, possibly due to confidence in the established performance or shifting focus towards growth and strategic projects.

    Share repurchase initiatives and stock undervaluation reassessment

    Q2 2024 detailed opportunistic share repurchases (674,000 shares) with a portion of the $50 million program used ; Q3 2024 did not mention this topic; Q4 2024 emphasized a $50 million repurchase program and discussed management’s view on stock undervaluation.

    Q1 2025 did not mention any share repurchase initiatives or stock undervaluation reassessment.

    Not mentioned in Q1 2025, indicating either a temporary pause or lower prioritization of capital return activities relative to other strategic investments.

    Geopolitical factors and external market influences driving demand

    Q2 2024 linked global events (e.g. Ukraine) to renewed LNG demand in emerging markets ; Q3 2024 did not provide specific commentary; Q4 2024 discussed European energy security, Germany's gas‑fired power plans, and FSRUs as “cheap insurance” amid geopolitical risks.

    Q1 2025 highlighted that their business model is resilient against tariffs and noted increased demand from developing countries due to lower international gas prices.

    A consistent focus on external geopolitical influences remains, with Q1 2025 reinforcing the resilient and opportunistic aspects of the business despite continued global uncertainties.

    Project execution and timeline uncertainties

    Q2 2024 discussed timelines for Vietnam/Alaska projects and compared conversion vs. new‑build durations (3.5 years vs. shorter conversions) ; Q3 2024 provided details on conversion project timelines and highlighted uncertainties based on vessel specifications ; Q4 2024 did not mention execution uncertainties.

    Q1 2025 did not explicitly mention project execution or timeline uncertainties but reported steady progress on projects like the Jamaica acquisition and Hull 3407 milestones.

    The absence of explicit timeline concerns in Q1 2025 suggests improved clarity and confidence in execution, possibly due to progress achieved in earlier quarters.

    Financial strength with strong liquidity and free cash flow generation

    Q2 2024 reported $609 million in cash and strong revolving credit capacity, emphasizing robust free cash flow from core operations ; Q3 2024 noted $608 million in cash with nearly full revolver capacity and consistent free cash flow ; Q4 2024 highlighted $538 million in cash, low net debt, and active share repurchase programs reinforcing liquidity.

    Q1 2025 described a very strong liquidity position with $619 million in cash, an undrawn $350 million capacity, an extension of credit facility maturity, and strong credit ratings, underscoring robust free cash flow.

    A consistent and strong financial profile is evident, with Q1 2025 reinforcing liquidity improvements and strategic credit facility enhancements to support growth.

    1. Jamaica Acquisition
      Q: Steps to close acquisition and EBITDA potential?
      A: Management explained that closing relies on routine deliverables and consents, while post-close, the Jamaica platform is expected to drive incremental EBITDA through modest CapEx projects and enhanced LNG sales opportunities.

    2. Hull 3407 Update
      Q: What are prospects for Hull 3407?
      A: Management emphasized robust market interest and flexible deployment options for Hull 3407, noting its best‐in‐class technical features and ongoing serious discussions.

    3. Supply Alignment
      Q: What supply will match VG volumes?
      A: Management clarified that the expected Venture Global volumes complement Jamaica’s fixed long-term contracts, with non-FSRU interim supply bridging any shortfall.

    4. Renewables Support
      Q: Can flexible terminals support renewables backup?
      A: They highlighted Jamaica’s role as a strategic hub, enabling flexible LNG imports essential for countries with high renewable shares needing reliable baseload power.

    5. Gas Sales Drivers
      Q: What drove $100M gas sales trend?
      A: Management attributed the strong figure to a combination of consecutive Atlantic Basin deals and additional cargoes to Asia and Europe, all secured on fixed terms.

    6. Growth CapEx
      Q: Any capacity for additional growth CapEx?
      A: They confirmed ample dry powder from recent equity and debt financing, positioning the company well to fund further growth initiatives after the Jamaica acquisition.

    7. Tariff Impact
      Q: Do tariffs affect U.S. growth opportunities?
      A: Management stated that Excelerate is effectively tariff-proof, as its offshore projects and domestic components are not affected by material cost fluctuations due to tariffs.

    8. Global Trade Tailwinds
      Q: Are global deficits accelerating growth?
      A: They noted that trade deficits in key markets are driving LNG demand, creating favorable tailwinds that support secure, long-term contracts.

    9. Vessel Conversion Plans
      Q: What is status of LNG vessel conversion?
      A: Management reported that conversion plans are on track, with advanced engineering and identified candidates, aiming to complete asset acquisition and technical readiness this year.

    10. Vietnam MOUs
      Q: What is status on Vietnam MOUs?
      A: Management mentioned they have two MOUs with Petrovietnam subsidiaries and are methodically advancing discussions, aiming to move to binding agreements soon.

    11. EBITDA Cadence
      Q: What’s EBITDA cadence for remaining year?
      A: Management explained that quarterly EBITDA may be lumpy due to timing in vessel maintenance and SG&A, though the overall full-year guidance remains solid.

    12. LNG Price Impact
      Q: Are lower LNG prices boosting demand?
      A: They observed that falling LNG prices have increased interest in developing markets, leading to quicker project timelines and heightened demand for gas sales and newbuild opportunities.

    Research analysts covering Excelerate Energy.