Employers Holdings - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 delivered a mixed print: total revenues rose to $246.3M (+13.5% YoY), but adjusted diluted EPS fell to $0.48 and the GAAP combined ratio deteriorated to 105.6% amid a higher current accident-year loss ratio tied to California cumulative trauma claims.
• Against S&P Global consensus, revenue beat ($246.3M vs $217.2M*) while Primary EPS missed materially ($0.48 vs $0.97*); management cited raising the accident-year loss ratio to 69% and the absence of favorable prior-year reserve development as key drivers.
• Cost discipline continued: commission ratio improved to 13.2% and underwriting expense ratio to 21.7%, supported by automation and AI; policies in-force hit a record 134,421 (+5% YoY).
• Capital returns remained a tailwind (Q2 buybacks: 482K shares at $48.08; early Q3: 229,363 shares at $46.44; dividend $0.32), with remaining repurchase authorization of $99.4M and management emphasizing excess capital flexibility.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Revenue outperformed consensus, driven by higher net investment income and equity gains: NII $27.1M (+1% YoY) and net realized/unrealized gains $20.9M versus $2.2M last year.
• Expense ratios improved: commission ratio to 13.2% (from 13.9%) and underwriting expense ratio to 21.7% (from 22.4%) on higher renewals and ongoing operational efficiencies using automation and artificial intelligence.
• Book value accretion and policy growth: BVPS incl. deferred gain rose to $49.44 (+12.8% YoY), adjusted BVPS to $51.68 (+8.2% YoY), and policies in-force reached a record 134,421 (+5% YoY).

What Went Wrong

• Profitability pressure from California cumulative trauma claims: accident-year loss ratio raised to 69% (from 66% in Q1), no net favorable prior-year development, plus a $5.5M Q1 catch-up adjustment, elevating the GAAP combined ratio to 105.6%.
• Adjusted EPS fell 56% YoY to $0.48 and missed consensus by roughly half, reflecting higher losses and lack of reserve releases.
• Transcript vs. filing discrepancy: CFO remarks referenced losses and LAE of $104.1M vs. $140.1M in the press release; filings should be treated as definitive (management later discussed the 70.7% loss ratio and drivers in filings).

Transcript

Speaker 1

Okay, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the second quarter 2025 Employers Holdings, Inc. earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press *11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press *11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I will now hand the conference over to our first speaker today, Lori Brown, Chief Legal Officer. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Marvin. Good morning and welcome, everyone, to the second quarter 2025 earnings call for Employers Holdings, Inc. Today's call is being recorded and webcast from the investor section of our website, where a replay will be available following the call. Statements made during this conference call that are not based on historical facts are considered forward-looking statements. These statements are made in reliance on the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although we believe the expectations expressed in our forward-looking statements are reasonable, risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to be materially different from our expectations, including the risks set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All remarks made during the call are current only at the time of the call and will not be updated to reflect subsequent developments.

The company also uses its website as a means of disclosing material non-public information and for complying with the disclosure obligations under the SEC's Regulation FD. Such disclosures will be included in the investor section of our website. Accordingly, investors should monitor that portion of our website in addition to following our press releases, SEC filings, public conference calls, and webcasts. In our earnings press release and in our remarks or responses to questions, we may use non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results are included in our financial supplement as an attachment to our earnings press release, our investor presentation, and any other materials available in the investor section on our website. Now I'll turn the call over to Kathy Antonello, our Chief Executive Officer.

Speaker 0

Thank you, Lori. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our second quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining me today is Michael Pedraja, our Chief Financial Officer. During today's call, I'll begin by providing highlights of our second quarter 2025 financial results and then hand it over to Michael for more details on our financials. Prior to Q&A, I'll come back to you with some additional thoughts. Our second quarter gross written premium decreased by 2.2% compared to 2024 due to a decrease in new business written premium within the middle market. Our focus on profitability over growth led to targeted underwriting actions and improved risk selection, which impacted our ability and desire to grow at the same pace in certain classes and jurisdictions. We are pleased that we continue to grow with our small commercial clients that value our investments in automation and ease of use.

Net premiums earned for the quarter increased 5.6%, primarily due to strong increases in net written premium in 2024. We ended the period with a record number of policies in force, with a year-over-year growth rate of 4.6%. We earned $27.1 million of net investment income during the quarter, which was slightly higher than the second quarter of 2024. Our current accident year loss and LAE ratio on voluntary business was 69% versus the 66% we recorded in the first quarter of 2025. This increase was a prudent response to the rapid rise in cumulative trauma claims in California in the most recent accident years and the level of uncertainty around this new trend.

In addition, while we did not recognize any prior year loss reserve development for voluntary business this quarter, we did reallocate significant favorable loss development from accident years 2020 and prior to accident years 2022 through 2024 to reflect the increased frequency of cumulative trauma claims in California. We intend to perform a full actuarial study in the third quarter. I am pleased with the reductions we achieved in our commission expense ratio, which was 13.2% this quarter, down from 13.9% a year ago. We also achieved reductions in our underwriting expense ratio, which was 21.7% this quarter compared to 22.4% a year ago. We continue to find ways to reduce expenses by automating processes, delivering customer self-service capabilities, and utilizing artificial intelligence. With that, Michael will now provide a deeper dive into our financial results, and then I'll return to provide my closing remarks. Michael?

Speaker 1

Yes, Kathy. Gross premiums written were $203.3 million compared to $207.9 million for the prior quarter, a decrease of 2.2%. As Kathy previously mentioned, declines in our middle market new business offset new business premium growth within our smaller customer segment. Net premiums earned were $198.3 million compared to $187.8 million for the prior quarter, an increase of 5.6%. During the period, our loss and loss adjustment expenses were $104.1 million versus $108.8 million a year ago. As Kathy discussed, we increased our current accident year loss and loss adjustment expense estimates in response to the rapid rise in cumulative trauma claims in California we are experiencing. As a reminder, in our first quarter, 2025 reported loss and loss adjustment expenses were based on a loss and LAE ratio of 66%.

Accordingly, the current quarter loss and loss adjustment expenses include a first quarter catch-up adjustment of $5.5 million, resulting in a 70.7% loss and LAE ratio. Commission expense of $26.1 million was essentially flat compared to a year ago, and our commission expense ratio was 13.2% versus 13.9% for the prior period. The reduction in the commission expense ratio was primarily due to the proportional increase in renewable premiums, which carry lower commission rates, as well as lower agency incentive commissions. Underwriting expenses were $43.1 million for the quarter versus $42.2 million for the prior year. Our underwriting expense ratios for the corresponding quarters were 21.7% and 22.4% respectively. The underwriting expense increase was primarily related to a reduced internal allocation of underwriting expenses to loss adjustment expenses resulting from a refinement in our internal assumptions.

Excluding this allocation, underwriting expenses decreased by $3 million, primarily driven by lower compensation-related expenses and depreciation amortization costs offset by higher bad debt expense. Increased net premiums earned contributed to the lower underwriting expense ratio. Net investment income was $27.1 million for the quarter compared to $26.9 million for the prior year. The slight increase was primarily due to higher yields on our fixed maturity investments. The total investment return for the second quarter was $57.5 million compared to $26.5 million for the prior year. The current quarter net income results included after-tax, realized, and unrealized gains from our investments in equity securities and other invested assets of $14.8 million and $1.8 million, respectively. Our stockholders' equity at June 30, 2025, reflects $7.4 million of net after-tax unrealized gains generated from our fixed maturity investments during the current quarter.

Our fixed maturity investments currently have a modified duration of 4.3 and an average credit quality of A+. Our weighted average book yield was 4.5% at quarter end, which is consistent with a year ago. Our adjusted net income, which excludes net realized and unrealized investment gains and losses and the benefit of our LPT deferred gain amortization, totaled $11.5 million, a 58.8% decrease compared to prior year's adjusted net income of $27.9 million. During the second quarter, we repurchased $23 million of our common stock at an average price of $48.08 per share and thus far have repurchased an additional 229,365 shares of our common stock in the third quarter at an average price of $46.44 per share. With that, I'll turn it back to Kathy.

Speaker 0

Thank you, Mike. Yesterday, our Board of Directors declared a third quarter 2025 quarterly dividend of $0.32 per share. The dividend is payable on August 27 to stockholders of record on August 13. We are confident in Employers' financial strength and financial prospects and will continue to manage our capital strategically. Consistent with my first quarter message, we also continue to identify and implement refinements to our underwriting and pricing approach that we believe will result in profitable growth in new and renewable business. We are pleased that the California Insurance Commissioner, Commissioner Lara, recognized the increased frequency of California cumulative trauma claims through his approval of increased rates and is also encouraged by his call for legislative changes to combat this growing negative trend.

We have not experienced direct impacts from the ongoing tariff uncertainties, but we'll continue to closely monitor the cost of prescription drugs and medical services for potential changes. If any necessary headwinds emerge, we are cautiously optimistic that our deep relationships with our customers and agents, our product and service value proposition, and our geographic and industry segment diversification will allow us to maintain our strong customer base and weather the storm. I am also pleased with the team's continued focus on expense management and our prudent capital management. We continue to improve our key operating metrics, which is a clear indication of our success. After considering dividends declared, our book value per share, including the deferred gain, increased 12.8% to $49.44 and our adjusted book value per share increased by 8.2% to $51.68 over the last 12 months.

Finally, we returned $31.4 million to our stockholders this quarter through a combination of regular quarterly dividends and share repurchases at an average price that was highly accretive to our adjusted book value per share. With that, Marvin, we will now take questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you. At this time, we'll conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you'll need to press *11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press *11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Mark Hughes of Truist Securities. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Yeah, thank you. Good morning.

Speaker 0

Good morning, Mark.

Speaker 5

Good morning. You clearly talked about this issue last quarter, and it impacted your current accident year loss fix. I wonder if you could kind of just reflect on how this has emerged the last few quarters, a couple of years, and what you saw this quarter that triggered more significant action.

Speaker 0

Sure. Let me just back up and kind of give you the backdrop. As you are aware, though, California continues to be about 45% of our book. Our results in California across the last few decades have consistently been more favorable than the industry. We believe that that will continue to be true. Overall, industry results are worsening in California. We talked about the increase that Commissioner Lara approved. It was 8.7%. That was effective 9/1. The drivers of that increase included things like medical loss development, increase in medical costs in 2024, and an increase in frequency, particularly in CT claims. For our book of business, we did not see overall frequency in California begin to increase in total until late 2024. When I say that, I mean across all accident years. For example, for accident year 2023, the increase in frequency didn't occur until late 2024.

That's when we started taking action on the current accident year. As we discussed in the first quarter and then again this quarter, we've had significant favorable development in older accident years that we've pushed forward to the more recent accident years to reflect that.

Speaker 5

The 2023 frequency, am I right in thinking that this is, it really is just a function of California's ability to report claims post-employment?

Speaker 0

That's absolutely. I'm sorry.

Speaker 5

I was going to say, why is it because the attorneys are just going that far back and advertising, letting people know that, hey, even if you separated in 2023, there's still opportunity? Is this, can you correlate that with something that's going on in the broader environment? It seems unusual that the frequency would have been increasing across the state. You wouldn't have seen it. Now you're starting to see it, and it's on older accident years as well. Clearly, these are events that are seemingly well in the past.

Speaker 0

Yeah, it's a very good question. California is an outlier in terms of the way that they treat cumulative trauma (CT) claims. They allow claims to be filed, as you mentioned, post-termination. They're the only state that allows cumulative stress in workers' compensation. They have a much broader and much more liberal legislative, you know, the way it's written into law is much, much broader than any other state. They're an extreme outlier there. This post-termination filing of claim does have high attorney involvement. When the claim comes in the door, there's typically an attorney involved. The other trend that has been cited is the ability for attorneys to bring these cases remote. This was previously a Southern California, primarily in the Los Angeles area, phenomenon. We are now seeing it spread into the Bay Area and into Sacramento, and that's because they can handle these hearings remotely.

Speaker 5

When did they make that change?

Speaker 0

It was sometime during and after. COVID was sort of the starting point for it, right? Because they wanted to enable hearings to keep things moving along, to be remote. COVID was the start of it, and now it's continued.

Speaker 5

Okay. The frequency and severity, I think the I understand that severity is not that substantial on these, generally speaking. Can you talk about that and what you've seen over time with severity for these types of claims when they have emerged in your book?

Speaker 0

Yeah, I would say that's generally true. This is a frequency issue that we're seeing. It is not necessarily a severity issue. You can see severe CT claims, particularly legitimate CT claims, are oftentimes severe. There are a lot of nuisance claims that come in too. Yeah, it's really a frequency phenomenon. When we look at our book of business across countrywide, our lost time claim frequencies have continued to trend downward over the last several years. California, again, is the outlier. It's increased in the latest accident year. That's all driven by the CT claims. We take the CT claims out, California, and look at non-CT, we continue to see a nice decrease in frequency. In some ways, that can mask what's going on when you put the two together.

When we adjust for wage changes, our overall claim severity values have really held steady in the more recent years. They're still below pre-pandemic levels. That's mostly driven by medical severity coming down still.

Speaker 5

How confident are you that you've fully reflected the trend in your reserves? I know you alluded to the fact that you don't have quite as much visibility because it's a new phenomenon. That being said, I think that contributed to your reserve actions and the current accident year increase. How confident are you that you've got this under control?

Speaker 0

Over the last six months, we've implemented a multi-pronged approach to manage through this period, and we're confident that this approach is going to be impactful. We've implemented a combination of pricing actions, risk selection actions, and claim management strategies. Getting to reserves, the claim management strategies are looking at these CT claims after they come in the door and actively managing those. From a reserving standpoint, it's a changing and it's a rapidly changing environment. That's why we felt it was important to do another full study in the third quarter. We're very confident that accident year 2025 is in a good spot, and we continue to see really significant redundancies in those older accident years. I am very confident that our book as a whole is in a good spot.

Speaker 5

How do you see your book comparing to California as a whole? If you look at the state data, are you now seeing claims that are more consistent with the industry as a whole? You're still better than the industry? I’ll ask this question, and kind of a separate question is, do you think it's emerging more aggressively across the industry and across the state, or is there something about your book that it was somewhat delayed and now you're having it happen to you, you know, but the state maybe is more, you know, it's already at a point where, you know, this has hit its kind of runway? Do you think the state more broadly is going to see an acceleration and you're kind of the early indicator, or are you the laggard and you're finally kind of catching up with the state?

Speaker 0

I don't think we're a laggard. Going to your first question, our book has consistently been better than the industry-wide average in California, and it continues to be significantly better than the industry-wide average. I don't think we're a laggard. I think these claims are typically very late reported. I think when I look at how they're emerging in some of these older accident years, it's pretty consistent across the accident years how they're coming in. The ultimate way to solve this problem is for legislative reform. Commissioner Lara did write a letter to Governor Newsom asking him to work towards reform. We are actively involved in working towards that also. I'm fairly confident that that is going to occur. It's been a while since I've seen something kind of come to light and the state jump on it this quickly.

In his letter to the governor, he highlighted the impact on business in California when he was urging them to take action. I think that's fairly unprecedented. I'm very, very hopeful that they're going to move on this quickly. Having said that, we're not waiting on any legislative reform to occur. We've got a well-thought-through plan internally to combat this.

Speaker 5

Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to be super rude and ask just two more if that's all right. The magnitude of the reserve shift, I think you used the word significant. Are you able to size that or give through any other adjectives at it? You know what that might have been between the older redundant accident years and then this, the more recent years where you're seeing this phenomenon?

Speaker 0

We were the older accident years this quarter, we had over $50 million of favorable development. To be prudent and cautious, instead of taking any action, we moved those reserves to the more recent accident years. It was a significant number, and I have no reason to believe that that will not continue because it has emerged like that for a long time now.

Speaker 5

Very good. From a capital management perspective, could you talk about what you see as the kind of excess capital on the balance sheet? How much more conservative might you be in light of this trend that's emerging? Assuming you'd get the opportunity, I'm just looking at the market. It's not that volatile in your experience. It doesn't seem that volatile under the circumstances. Would you push the capital management in order to take advantage of the situation here?

Speaker 2

Hey, thanks, Mark. It's Mike. As we discussed and as has been well-publicized by AM Best, we are ranked at the highest level of excess capital. We're very proud of that dynamic, and we think it gives us a lot of flexibility. Our prioritization for excess capital is to support our organic and inorganic growth investments in technology. Assuming that we have those covered, thinking about capital management will be something to consider, especially when the return on investment significantly exceeds our cost of capital. We will be driven by an investment return on investment criteria and be very disciplined by it. We see the opportunity that's out there and are considering all options.

Speaker 5

Yeah, very good. Okay, thank you. I could get back in the queue, and I probably will, but I'll defer for now. Sorry again to be so rude.

Speaker 2

No, that's good.

Speaker 1

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Matthew John Carletti of Citizens JMP Securities LLC. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

Hey, thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 0

Hi, Matt.

Speaker 3

Mark made it easy for me. He covered a few that I was going to ask. I'll make it really short. It's just kind of the last follow-up I had on the cumulative trauma (CT) claims. As you look across your book, is there anything you note in terms of where you're seeing it more, whether that be by account size or industry exposure, class code, whatever it might be? Is it more kind of just geography? I know you mentioned it had been a Los Angeles thing and it's moving up north, but just any observations you might have in terms of any nuances like that?

Speaker 0

Yeah, it's a good question. The answer is, other than the spread from a geographic standpoint, we don't see any other trend occurring. It's not within a specific class code or policy size. It's a broad-based trend, other than the fact that it used to be highly concentrated in Los Angeles, and it has now moved into the Bay Area and Sacramento.

Speaker 3

Okay. I guess one other, just you talked a little bit about, you know, deciding to do an additional reserve study in Q3 that you wouldn't normally do. It sounds like that's just it's moving quickly and you want to stay on top of it. Will that reserve study be any kind of different or just be focused on the CT, you know, angle of things? Would it differ from kind of the more typical Q2 or Q4 studies? Is it just kind of the same approach, but let's do it every 90 days to make sure that we're not missing anything as this develops?

Speaker 0

It'll be a very similar approach to what we did in Q2. In Q2, we did start to look at things differently from a cumulative trauma standpoint. It'll be another point for us to reflect on. Generally speaking, yeah, our approach to reserving has not changed.

Speaker 3

Okay. Great. Wonderful. Appreciate the answers. Thank you.

Speaker 0

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. One moment for our next question. As a reminder, to ask a question, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Edward Farnam of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC. Your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Hey there. Good morning. Unfortunately, I'm going to ask a couple more questions on the cumulative trauma claims, even though Mark and Matt have covered it pretty well. I just wanted to verify a couple of things. You say that there are cumulative trauma claims in other states. It's just that they're more narrowly defined and you don't see a change in frequency. Is that accurate?

Speaker 0

That's accurate.

Speaker 3

Okay.

Speaker 0

The reason the frequency is controlled in other states is because they are defined very, very narrowly in other states, whereas the opposite is true in California.

Speaker 3

Right. Okay. You're not seeing any change in your legacy classes versus your expansion classes. There's still, it's kind of broadly based on both aspects?

Speaker 0

Not at all. This has, we have not seen anything different in our appetite expansion. If you're speaking narrowly to CT claims, we don't see any difference there. I will also add that our expansion class codes are behaving favorably. They're either very similar to or better than our original target class codes from, say, four years ago.

Speaker 3

Great. Last question for me, just quickly, the reserve study, that's internal only, right? You're not getting external actuarial opinions on what's going on?

Speaker 0

We do have an external actuarial study that we do from time to time, but that will not be occurring at the end of the third quarter.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's more of a fourth quarter thing?

Speaker 0

Yeah.

Speaker 3

Okay. Great. Thanks for the answers.

Speaker 0

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'll now turn it back to Kathy Antonello for closing remarks.

Speaker 0

Thank you, Marvin. Thank you all for joining us this morning. I look forward to meeting with you again in October.

Speaker 1

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.