EM
ENTERGY MISSISSIPPI, LLC (EMP)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Adjusted EPS was $1.53, up 2% year over year; management narrowed FY25 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.85–$3.95, raising the bottom by $0.10 .
- Utility earnings were $810M while Parent & Other posted a $(117)M loss; operating cash flow surged on higher customer receipts and monetized nuclear/solar tax credits .
- Management highlighted accelerating large-load demand, expanding hyperscale data center pipeline to 7–12 GW, and securing 4.5 GW of “power island” equipment to meet future needs — a key growth catalyst for the stock narrative .
- Regulatory wins across Texas and Louisiana, and Entergy Mississippi’s Superpower Mississippi initiative ($300M grid hardening, no customer rate impact given new industrial revenues) support the medium-term thesis .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- “We had another successful quarter” with adjusted EPS $1.53 and narrowed FY25 guidance, indicating execution confidence .
- Operating cash flow increased sharply QoQ and YoY, driven by customer receipts and monetized nuclear/solar production tax credits sales .
- Data center pipeline expansion (7–12 GW) and 4.5 GW of secured long-lead equipment position the fleet for multi-year load growth; equity forwards settled (~$800M through Q3, ~$330M post-quarter) strengthen funding .
What Went Wrong
- Higher other O&M, taxes other than income taxes, interest expense, and depreciation/amortization partially offset earnings drivers .
- Share dilution from forward equity settlements and higher stock price reduced per-share results versus underlying earnings lift .
- Parent & Other remained a drag at $(117)M with loss primarily due to prior-year legal provision changes, though improved YoY .
Financial Results
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment breakdown:
KPIs:
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We had another successful quarter executing on initiatives for all our customers,” with adjusted EPS $1.53 and narrowed FY25 guidance .
- On load growth: “Our pipeline of potential data center customers continues to expand,” underscored by 4.5 GW of additional equipment agreements to meet future needs .
- Mississippi reliability: Superpower Mississippi will invest $300M to harden the grid, targeting a 50% outage reduction within five years with no added customer cost due to new industrial revenues .
Q&A Highlights
- Capex plan and equipment: ~$41B 2026–2029 capex plan; added 4.5 GW of power island equipment to align with visible pipeline and commissioning timelines; regulatory approval processes are embedded in plan .
- Equity forward progress: ~45% of equity need through 2027 covered via forward mechanisms, reducing financing risk amid elevated capital deployment .
- Customer cost allocation: Hyperscale customer agreements are structured to ensure they “pay their fair share” and protect affordability for existing customers (e.g., Google West Memphis commitment) .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue for Q3 2025 were unavailable in our feed; result: no beat/miss determination can be made from S&P data. Actual adjusted EPS: $1.53 .
- Where available, estimates will be used; here, lack of S&P consensus implies limited near-term model recalibration signal, though guidance narrowing (raising low end) suggests upward bias to FY25 bottom bound.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Guidance tightening and strong OCF are supportive; the raised FY25 bottom bound is a positive signal of confidence and execution.
- Data center pipeline expansion (7–12 GW) and secured 4.5 GW of equipment are structural load growth catalysts; regulatory progress in TX/LA reduces execution risk .
- Watch cost inflation and elevated O&M/taxes/interest as partial offsets; share count dilution remains a per-share headwind .
- Mississippi program (Superpower Mississippi) strengthens reliability with no customer rate impact, enhancing stakeholder value and regulatory goodwill .
- Near-term trading: narrative lever is large-load signings (ESAs) and additional regulatory milestones; catalysts include commissioning progress (e.g., Orange County Advanced Power Station) and further monetization of tax credits .
- Medium-term thesis: constructive regulation, industrial growth, and disciplined funding plan (equity forwards) underpin >8% EPS CAGR aspirations (management long-term outlook commentary on call) .
Notes:
- Non-GAAP adjusted EPS excludes unusual/regulatory items; see release for reconciliation and definitions .
- Earnings drivers by line item and per-share variance details are summarized in Appendices A–B of the release .