Enbridge - Q4 2025
February 13, 2026
Transcript
Marlon Samuel (VP of Investor Relations and Insurance)
Good morning, and welcome to the Enbridge Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is Marlon Samuel, and I am the Vice President of Investor Relations and Insurance. Joining me this morning are Greg Ebel, President and CEO, Pat Murray, EVP and Chief Financial Officer, and the heads of each of our business units: Colin Gruending, Liquids Pipelines, Matthew Akman, Gas Transmission, Michele Harradence, Gas Distribution and Storage, and Allen Capps, Renewable Power. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for the investor community. Please note, this conference call is being recorded. As per usual, this call is being webcast, and I encourage those listening to follow along with the supporting slides.
We will try to keep the call to roughly one hour, and in order to answer as many questions as possible, we will be limiting questions to one, plus a single follow-up if necessary. We will be prioritizing questions from the investment community, so if you are a member of the media, please direct your inquiries to our communications team, who'll be happy to respond. As always, our investor relations team will be available following the call for any follow-up questions. On to slide two, where I will remind you that we will be referring to forward-looking information on today's presentation and Q&A. By its nature, this information contains forecast assumptions and expectations about future outcomes, which are subject to the risks and uncertainties outlined here and discussed more fully in our public disclosure filings. We will also be referring to non-GAAP measures summarized below.
With that, I will turn it over to Greg Ebel.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Thank you, Marlon, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining for our Q4 call. First off, let me welcome Matthew Akman in his new role as EVP and President of Gas Transmission, and Allen Capps to his new role as Head of Corporate Strategy and President of Power, and introduce Marlon Samuel as the new VP of Investor Relations. Their backgrounds and experience have positioned them exceptionally well for success in these roles, and I know they look forward to working with you. Today, we'll recap another successful year, followed by an update on our opportunity set through the end of the decade, before providing updates on our four businesses since our last quarterly earnings call. Pat will then walk through our record financial results, capital allocation priorities, and give a refreshed view of our annual investment capacity.
Lastly, I'll end the presentation with a few reminders on Enbridge's first-choice value proposition before we open the line for any questions from the investment community. We had another great year of record financial results, exceeding the midpoint of our 2025 guidance for both EBITDA and DCF per share, marking the 20th year of achieving or exceeding our annual financial guidance. As we announced in December, we have now increased our dividend for 31 consecutive years, extending our status as one of the few dividend aristocrats in our sector. Our debt to EBITDA remains within our leverage range of 4.5-5 times, maintaining our strong investment-grade credit profile while growing our investment capacity. From a growth and execution standpoint, we sanctioned CAD 14 billion of capital across all businesses and placed CAD 5 billion of assets into service during the past year.
Our growth backlog has grown 35% since our Investor Day last March, underlying the ongoing and extended business and earnings growth opportunity we have before us. We continued to develop our relationship with our Whistler JV partners, acquiring a 10% interest in the operating Matterhorn Express pipeline. We also announced a historic investment in our West Coast pipeline system by 38 First Nations groups, allowing Enbridge to create alignment with indigenous communities and helping to advance economic reconciliation while actively recycling capital. Operationally, our assets remain highly utilized during the quarter, with the mainline transporting approximately 3.1 million barrels per day on average. Our gas systems were also highly utilized in the quarter, and in recent weeks, we saw a number of all-time peak demand days for both our gas transmission and gas distribution and storage assets.
To provide a couple of impressive stats, Texas Eastern recently hit new peak records, transporting over 15 BCF per day in January, and in our utilities, Enbridge Gas Ohio hit its third-highest throughput day in the company's 128-year history. In the severely energy infrastructure-short New England, our Algonquin pipeline saw nine of its top 25 all-time volume days this winter, underlying the need for energy affordability, creating expansions of natural gas infrastructure in that region. At the utilities, we reached constructive settlements at both Enbridge Gas North Carolina and Enbridge Gas of Utah, and filed a new rate case at Enbridge Gas Ohio. Lastly, we successfully extended contracts on a number of LP assets, and once again, our gas transmission assets had another 100% contract renewal rate with customers on our major pipelines.
So now let's dive into exactly where we allocated our growth capital in 2025. Taking a look at the map, you can see we won more than our fair share of opportunities this past year. Sanctioning over $14 billion of capital in 2025, putting us ahead of where we forecasted during last year's Investor Day. In liquids, we FID over $4 billion of project, locking in the majority of opportunities we laid out for the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin growth within the year. In gas transmission, we sanctioned projects supported by natural gas fundamentals, including industrial and data center demand, the LNG build-out, our customer storage needs, and deepwater offshore opportunities.
Total capital secured in gas transmission during the year was approximately CAD 4 billion, making significant progress on the CAD 3 billion-CAD 5 billion of opportunities we expected to sanction within 6-18 months of our Investor Day. In the utilities, we continued to invest approximately CAD 3 billion of foundational capital per year to expand our systems and keep them safe and reliable. And finally, in renewable power, we've added CAD 3 billion of capital to support technology and data center operations for companies like Meta. This places us well ahead of the timing we outlined at the Investor Day, where we showed CAD 3 billion of late-stage opportunities with potential FIDs between 2026 and 2027. In total, our power and natural gas projects currently under construction are now completed, support over 7 GW of power generation across multiple businesses.
I think it's safe to say that just under a year since Enbridge Day, we have made tremendous progress on the commitments we laid out and continue to work hard to advance additional accretive projects. Continuing the momentum from 2025, our teams are busy advancing opportunities from our unsanctioned backlog. With fundamental supporting expansion in each of our four businesses, we expect to reach FID on another $10-$20 billion of growth projects over the next 24 months, that will enhance energy security and affordability in North America and beyond. Gas transmission has the largest opportunity set of our core franchises, driven by industrial and power demand, along with growing LNG exports and storage. Potential projects include expansions on Vector, Valley Crossing, Texas Eastern, Algonquin, opportunities in the U.S. Southeast, and the Homer City redevelopment, as well as additional storage expansions at Tres Palacios.
In liquids, supported by the WCSB production growth and overall global demand, we continue to advance opportunities, including MLO 2 and 3, and expansions to our regional oil sands assets. We'll continue to invest about CAD 3 billion a year in our gas utilities to support new customer connections, as well as opportunities driven by new power demand, including data centers. In renewable power, we will remain opportunistic, advancing projects to support demand driven by hyperscalers and other large tech companies and/or those seeking power from lower carbon sources. Now, let's jump into the BU update, starting with the liquids segment. In light of recent geopolitical events, let's take a step back and remind everyone of our irreplaceable liquids footprint.
Our Mainline is a vital connection between the growing production in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the refiners in PADD II and PADD III, which are consistently drawing higher volumes of Canadian heavy crude. We saw a strong demand throughout the year on the Mainline, which was apportioned for all but three of the last 12 months, delivering on average 3.1 million barrels per day. In fact, the Mainline was also in double-digit apportionment in January and February of 2026. Given Enbridge's unique asset footprint and our expectation that the low-cost, established WCSB production and demand continues to grow, we do not expect any material impact from the recent geopolitical events involving Venezuela. In Q4, supported by growing production, we sanctioned the first phase of Mainline optimization, which will add 150,000 barrels per day of additional egress out of the basin.
The project also includes a 100,000 barrel per day expansion on Flanagan South and is expected to cost $1.4 billion and enter service by the end of 2027. As part of MLO 1, the majority of our customers elected to extend their Flanagan South take-or-pay contracts beyond 2040. We're also commercializing Mainline Optimization Phase 2, which could add another 250,000 barrels per day of incremental egress in the 2028 timeframe. Customers remain very interested in moving this project ahead, and it showcases the benefit of existing assets in the ground as this project leverages underutilized capacity on assets such as Line 26, Dakota Access, and Seaway.
MLO 3 is also making progress, and although we're not in a position to provide much detail right now, the project will create further significant egress opportunities to support our customers well into the future. A quick update on Line Five. The U.S. District Court recently ruled in our favor, preventing the state of Michigan from taking further action to shut down Line Five, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers issued their final EIS, another step in the right direction for the Line Five Tunnel Project. In our Gulf Coast and Permian franchise, the 80,000 barrel per day expansion of Gray Oak Pipeline entered service in 2025, and the remaining 40,000 barrel per day expansion is on track to enter service in the first half of 2026....
Lastly, we continue to expand our storage footprint at the Enbridge Ingleside facility, as well as explore additional service offerings off the docks at Corpus Christi. Now, let's turn to our gas transmission business. Our gas transmission franchise is well-positioned to serve growing energy demand across the continent, and the team is currently working on a number of exciting projects. These opportunities will address a range of demand drivers, including electric and gas utilities, LNG exports, and emerging data center power needs. Currently, we're advancing over 50 potential data center opportunities that could require up to 10 BCF per day of natural gas, and we expect to begin sanctioning these additional projects throughout 2026 and more in 2027.
In the Permian, our JV investments in natural gas infrastructure are set to offer over 11 BCF/day of long-haul capacity and are supported by over 2 BCF of storage capacity at Waha. We're announcing today that along with our partners, the sanctioning of Bay Runner, an extension of the Whistler pipeline, which will supply gas to Rio Grande LNG facility, in combination with previously announced Rio Bravo pipeline for total capacity of up to 5.3 BCF/day. We have also upsized the Eiger Express pipeline from 2.5 BCF/day to 3.7 BCF/day, driven by growing demand for natural gas transportation out of the Permian and supported by long-term customer contracts. Lastly, we're extending our U.S. Gas Transmission Modernization Program another year into 2029, and to highlight that the Appalachia to Market Two project is now in service.
2025 represented a milestone year for Gas Distribution and Storage, as it was the first full year of operations for the U.S. gas utilities as Enbridge Gas. In Ontario, we continued to efficiently run Canada's largest natural gas distribution company, with new rates in effect at the beginning of 2025. In Ohio, we received a somewhat disappointing rate case decision in the middle of the year, but maintained Enbridge Gas Ohio's allowed ROE at 9.8% on a slightly higher equity component. Since some time had passed since the original filing, we filed a new rate case at the end of 2025, updated with refreshed operating and financing costs.
In Utah, we reached a supportive rate case settlement, with rates in effect on January 1, 2026, and in North Carolina, we received a supportive outcome as well, with rates in effect in November 2025, and welcomed the addition of new major capital project riders to allow us to meet our customers' growing needs and to realize a quicker return of capital for our investors. Finally, with growing power demand in all jurisdictions, we are finding increased need for access to low-cost gas feedstock for up to 5 BCF/day of power generation and associated demand growth. This will further grow our utilities well into the next decade. Now I'll move on to the renewables segment.
Building on the Clear Fork Solar Project, which reached FID in mid-2025, we are excited to extend our partnership with leading technology companies like Meta Inc, sanctioning Cowboy Phase One and Easter Wind, supplying over 500 MW of renewable power to support data center operations. Cowboy Phase One is a 365 MW solar and 135 MW battery energy storage project in Wyoming, with the output secured by a fixed offtake agreement and the battery component of the project secured by a fixed toll agreement. The full output has been secured by a Mag Seven technology company. The battery system will be supplied and operated by Tesla, the leading supplier in North America, and can be expanded up to 200 MW after the approval from the utility, which is expected in the first half of 2026.
This project's CapEx is $1.2 billion, and is expected to enter service in 2027. Easter is an onshore wind project being built near Amarillo, Texas, with a capacity of 152 MW. This $400 million US project is secured by a renewable power purchase agreement with Meta. In total, our power partnership with Mag Seven Companies is set to provide over 1 GW of renewable generation to support operations and add new generation to the local grids. Looking ahead, we still have over 1 GW of projects in the queue that we're advancing, remaining opportunistic while continuing to ensure these projects will realize mid-teen returns.
Providing an update on two of our projects under construction, I'm happy to announce that the first phase of Sequoia Solar entered service in December, and our Courseulles Wind Project in Europe remains on track to enter service in 2027. With that, I'll now pass it over to Pat to go over our financial performance.
Pat Murray (EVP and CFO)
Good morning, everyone, and thank you, Greg. I'm pleased to report again, record fourth quarter and full-year EBITDA, DCF, and earnings per share. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, adjusted EBITDA is up CAD 83 million, DCF is up CAD 0.06, and EPS increased CAD 0.13. In liquids, strong mainline volumes, annual escalators, and lower power costs led to year-over-year increase in the segment, net of earnings share. We experienced a strong fourth quarter in our gas transmission business, with incremental contributions from the acquisition of an interest in Matterhorn and placed the Venice Extension into service. As well, we saw favorable spreads at Aitken Creek and had exciting recontracting on our U.S. gas transmission assets. The gas distribution segment is up relative to last year, driven by rate escalation, customer growth, in addition to colder weather and strong storage results in Ontario.
Higher rates in North Carolina and recovery of capital investments in Ohio also increased the EBITDA. In renewables, results were lower compared to last year due to the absence of investment tax credits relating to the Fox Squirrel Solar project, which we put in service in Q4 of 2024. Lower maintenance costs due to increased buying power at our gas utilities and lower current income tax, driven by investment tax credits and benefits from U.S. tax legislation changes, further increased DCF per share year-over-year. I'm also pleased to reaffirm the 2026 guidance that we put out in early December. We continue to be confident that we'll achieve our full-year EBITDA expectations between CAD 20.2 billion and CAD 20.8 billion, and DCF of between 570 and 610 per share.
Our growth is driven by CAD 8 billion of new assets expected to enter service throughout the year and our cross-enterprise cost savings initiatives. So far, in 2026, the Mainline has been apportioned in January and February, as Greg noted, and we've experienced colder than normal weather in most of the eastern parts of North America, providing a strong start going into the year. As a reminder, Q1 and Q4 are typically our strongest quarters, primarily driven by the higher earnings attributable to our gas utility franchises during winter periods, the absence of heat restrictions on our liquids assets, as well as more peak days in gas transmission. Now, let's discuss our capital allocation priorities, which also remain unchanged in 2026. We're committed to continued equity self-funding and benefit from the natural stability of our regulated assets and predictable cash flow streams. On the leverage front, our balance sheet remains strong.
Our debt to adjusted EBITDA sits at 4.8, and our 4.5-5 times range remains unchanged. Core to our value proposition, we will continue to sustainably return capital to shareholders through dividends, with CAD 40 billion-CAD 45 billion of distributions expected to be paid out over the next 5 years, all underpinned by growing, regulated, and contracted cash flows. Our 60%-70% DCF payout target range remains unchanged as well, with us sitting right around the middle of the range today. To fuel long-term growth, we'll continue to target accretive brownfield projects supported by strong energy fundamentals. With the project additions this quarter, our current backlog now sits at CAD 39 billion and extends through 2033, highlighting our ability to execute on the opportunity set we laid out in front of investors back in last March.
With that, let's look at our annual investment capacity and how that also continues to grow. As our cash flows grow, so does our annual investment capacity, which now sits between CAD 10 billion-CAD 11 billion annually, supporting investments in growth projects across all four of our core business units. Our balance sheet strength gives us the ability to pursue CAD 6 billion-CAD 7 billion of organic growth projects annually, in addition to the CAD 4 billion of foundational capital that will support our utility growth programs, gas transmission, modernization, and liquids mainline capital investment. We continue to realize improving returns, showcasing our efficient use and deployment of capital. That's evident in our improving return on capital employed, which has consistently tracked upward these past number of years via optimizations of our business, annual cost savings from scale and technology advances, and accretive M&A.
These returns are further compounded by the project slate we sanctioned in 2025. On average, the growth projects have strong return on capital employed, with an average of approximately 11% across all organic projects. Securing strong return projects, combined with cost and revenue optimizations on existing assets, creates a compounding effect, which will continue to grow our investment capacity into the future. With that, I'll turn it back over to Greg to close out the presentation.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Well, thanks very much, Pat. As you've just heard, it was a busy quarter, capping off an incredible year, and I'm proud of the rapid progress our teams have made since our last Enbridge Investor Day. In an ever-evolving North American energy landscape, Enbridge continues to be very well-positioned to realize ongoing growth. Our disciplined capital allocation approach and our low-risk business profile continues to drive consistent long-term shareholder value and a first-choice investor proposition. Supported by long-term agreements and regulatory frameworks, Enbridge generates predictable cash flows, which have enabled 31 consecutive years of dividend increases. Going forward, we expect to achieve 5% growth through the end of the decade, supported by our now CAD 39 billion of secured growth capital. Our scale and diversity provides us with capital optionality that few in our industry possess, and we will continue to evaluate accretive investments across our entire footprint.
With that, I'll open the call to questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. Your first question comes from the line of Sam Burwell from Jefferies. Your line is open.
Sam Burwell (Managing Director)
Hey, good morning, guys. Noticed that the investment capacity increased by CAD 1 billion, which makes sense, but the longer-term post-2026 growth trajectory still looks around 5%. So just curious how those two reconcile, and I'm also curious if there might be maybe some underappreciated upside in 2027, 2028 EBITDA growth, given that 2026 was a little bit of a softer year, but you've got a lot more capital entering service in 2027.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
... Yeah, I think it's fair. I think the Street consensus still is probably like 3%. So as we've said, we're very confident in getting to the 5% number. Obviously, that capacity grows with EBITDA growth, and as we bring in more projects, I think it reconciles with that, right? So as we spend more capital, you need more capacity. We've got the more capacity with the EBITDA growth, so I'm not sure. Pat, I don't know if there's anything to add on that front.
Pat Murray (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, I mean, I think, excuse me. I think that we've always assumed that if we put projects in on time, on budget with good returns, that that capacity would continue to grow. And, and so that was, you know, baked in or, or, or acknowledged as we thought about our growth rate through the end of the decade, and we just get more and more confident, as Greg said, with the backlog of strong-returning, low-risk projects that we'll be able to meet that. So, I don't think... It just helps the Street to understand that we've got a fair amount of capacity here as we move forward.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
As I said, you know, we're comfortable with the 5% growth. I guess if, you know, what other dynamics out there are we looking at? Obviously, from where we were, a year ago, the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin situation looks positive. More production there, better attitude from, from governments about the competitiveness of, Canada and seeing production grow there. So I guess that could create some opportunities, and you're already seeing that in MLO 1 and MLO 2, and as we said, the possibility of an MLO 3. Gas transmission, I think you just heard us talk today, but you'll see, more, FIDs here in the next year and into 2027 as well. Gas, distribution, you make a good point there. I think we bought those gas distribution assets in the U.S.
We were looking at 8% type rate base growth through the end of the decade, and now it's closer to 10%, rate base growth. And then, I wouldn't be surprised if we exceed our power, CapEx, estimate that we laid out at the last, Investor Day. And you see that already as we... As customers are looking for electrons. They don't really care what color the electron is, they're looking for electrons, and you've seen us cut deals here announced today with, with Meta and, and Mag Seven players. So, you know, all that plays into it. We're moving a big ship here, of course, at CAD 20 billion and a couple hundred billion dollars enterprise value.
But I think you're on the right track, and actually pleased to see the Street looking for more on top of the 5% as to wondering how we're gonna get to the 5%.
Sam Burwell (Managing Director)
Okay. Yeah, that's a big ship indeed. And appreciate your comments earlier on Venezuela, but I just wanted to drill down a little bit more on that. I mean, is it fair to characterize the framework being: all right, there's growth in the WCSB. That growth will, in all likelihood, fill up TMX, and then after that, any growth that materializes, and there should be growth that's already baked into the cake 'cause projects have been sanctioned, that needs to clear via your full path to the Gulf Coast, and that's what gives you confidence in advancing MLO 2 and then, and in mentioning MLO 3 today?
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Well, I think I'll let Colin chime in, but I think there are several aspects to it. A, you know, there continues to be a need on the Gulf Coast for heavy crude even, and we don't underestimate it. Even if you see Venezuela barrels come in, and I think the smart consensus call that, you know, maybe 400,000 or 500,000 barrels, there continues to see Canadian crude exported. But we're continuing to see an increase of the utilization of the Mainline. As you heard us say, you know, all but three of the last 12 months, we saw apportionment and big start of apportionment, I think going back to even before TMX started up in January and February. So, I think producers want to go south first, Colin.
Colin Gruending (EVP and President, Liquids Pipelines)
Yep, I think so. Sam, I think your framework's roughly right. And, you know, maybe there's a West Coast solution in there in a bigger way someday, but in the meanwhile, and in this uncertain environment, you know, I think our historic playbook of iteratively expanding the Mainline is a winning formula and kind of fits the profile of customers on both the supply push and demand pull end of things to try to find certainty. And MLO 2 solves that 2028 egress bottleneck that's gonna emerge. So, its advantage is it's in service in 2028. But I think you've got your framework roughly right, and just watch that Canadian supply growth and disposition Gantt chart that we're filling in.
Sam Burwell (Managing Director)
Okay, understood. Thank you, guys.
Colin Gruending (EVP and President, Liquids Pipelines)
Thanks.
Pat Murray (EVP and CFO)
Your next question comes from the line of Rob Hope from Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Rob Hope (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Morning, everyone. Given the project backlog, which could include $10-$20 billion of projects sanctioned here over the next two years, how do you think about the potential to exceed the $10-$11 billion of annual investment capacity and relying on other sources of funding to capture, you know, what is an increasingly growth-rich environment?
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Yeah, I mean, Pat can add in here, but I think we feel very good about it. Matter of fact, Rob, even out of those projects, they don't all happen, you know, instantly, right? Even our $39 billion current backlog runs through 20-33 kind of timeframe. So fits very much in that. And remember, that capacity will also grow as EBITDA grows, right? So to put it in rough terms, you know, every dollar we raise in EBITDA is gonna create capacity of 4-5 dollars in debt capacity. So I think we feel very good about that. Now, that being said, we're always looking at recycling capital.
You saw us do that last year, you know, in a very smart way, and one that I think helps our overall business, such as Dawn Project, where we sold 12.5% of the West Coast pipeline to some 35-40 indigenous nations. So there's opportunities like that that we look at. So feel very good with where we are from a balance sheet perspective. But yeah, I always look at recycling capital to help create that buffer and allow us to continue to add more to the backlog.
Rob Hope (Managing Director of Equity Research)
That's great. I wanna go back to Venezuela. So it doesn't appear that Venezuela slowed down MLO 2 at all. However, when we think about MLO 3 and the timing for that project, you know, could we need to see increased clarity on, you know, either increased exports off the Gulf Coast, what the Venezuela situation looks like? Or, you know, do you think in any case, Canadian crude will find a home in the Gulf Coast and that the MLO 3 has a good chance of moving forward?
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Well, I think it's a bit of the all above. The only other addition I'll I would add there with MLO 3, what we really need to see is actually the change in policy in Canada that meets the the desires that you know the Prime Minister has articulated by increasing oil and gas production. So those changes you know are spoken about pretty openly and that's what has to come first, right? Production growth first, pipeline second. So I think that's a big element of it. But and Colin, I know we haven't got a lot of details out there on Line 3 yet or MLO 3, but do you wanna speak to that?
Colin Gruending (EVP and President, Liquids Pipelines)
Yeah. So we're—let's call it MLO 3, but you could probably call it MLO 126, 'cause we've expanded the Mainline a lot of times, and we just simplified the numbering to keep it simple for current vintage of participants. But, and there's—we're developing multiple options for MLO 3: small, medium, large, you know, depending what industry needs. I think on Venezuela... Listen, it's early days, and certainly the longer term outcome there is uncertain. But, you know, we'll see how quickly Venezuela grows its production, then we'll also need to, you know, evaluate what portion of that increased supply growth comes to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
You know, it's on VLCCs for the most part, and some of it may well stay on the water and feed the global refineries it has historically, but perhaps at a higher price for that country. I think that's one of the objectives. Also remember, Rob, that there is probably another 400,000 barrels a day of U.S. Gulf Coast heavy refining capability on top of what's being utilized today. And also, don't forget about the inevitability of re-exports of Canadian crude off the U.S. Gulf Coast, you know, in meaningful scale over time. So, listen, the U.S. Gulf Coast is the world's best heavy refining market, and Canadian crude is, you know, a beaten potato, part of the diet there.
So I think it's still gonna work pretty well all around.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Yeah, you know, Rob, I'd say there's multiple ways for us to win, so it's a good question. I think Colin's laid out some great ones here. And, you know, the Venezuela piece is a supplement to Canadian heavies, not a replacement. The other thing I think you should think about is if there is more of that kit on the Gulf Coast used with Canadian heavies, maybe that means less light Permian needed on the Gulf Coast, which would mean more of those light barrels would actually probably get exported. Guess where those get exported? From Ingleside. So I think it really underlines the Swiss Army knife, as Colin likes to call it, of the super system we've created down there, really to find ways for Enbridge liquid system to win in all scenarios.
Rob Hope (Managing Director of Equity Research)
I appreciate that. Thank you.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Thanks, Rob.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen from Barclays. Your line is open.
Theresa Chen (Senior Analyst of Midstream and Refining Equity Research)
Hi, team. Thank you for taking my questions. Greg, on your last point about potential expansion capability or pushing further WTI volumes out of Ingleside, should the Gulf Coast refining slate heavy up their crude feedstocks, I'm curious to hear: What kind of expansion capability do you have there beyond what you've sanctioned thus far? And to what extent would that necessitate expansion of your own pipeline feeding that facility versus barrels potentially going on competitor pipelines in that area?
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Yeah, remember, we have pieces of Cactus and Gray Oak, so those lines and are seeing some expansion. In fact, some Gray Oak expansion continues to come on next year. Remember, we've added some storage capacity at Ingleside, and then, of course, last year, picked up some more dock space. So I think we're in good shape, and in fact, optimizing the utilization of VLCCs, Aframax, Suezmax on the right dock, if you will, so that you fully utilize the bigger dock, the VLCC docks, as well as the smaller docks. So Colin, any other pieces to add there?
Colin Gruending (EVP and President, Liquids Pipelines)
Yeah, no, astute question, Theresa. We have lots of headroom at Ingleside, right? We acquired neighboring docks from Flint Hills. We've got lots of permitted headroom on the docks, got lots of land. We're still constructing right now, tanks. We could do more of that and we're three quarters the way through the Gray Oak expansion, and can do more there too. So, that that's a big long-term opportunity that we'll continue to realize for many years as the Permian you know grows again. Thanks.
Theresa Chen (Senior Analyst of Midstream and Refining Equity Research)
Understood. And, on the heels of so many questions about the geopolitical backdrop, understanding that the situation is still evolving, and with your commercialization efforts on MLO 2 and 3, how should we think about have this discussion of the marginal all-in rates are coming to terms as the projects come to fruition this late decade and beyond? And how do those economics compare versus the current committed and spot rates on Mainline as we think about the upcoming renegotiation for the system, the hourly caller, over the next couple of years?
Colin Gruending (EVP and President, Liquids Pipelines)
Yeah, are you asking about the competitiveness of our tariffs on the expansions, basically?
Theresa Chen (Senior Analyst of Midstream and Refining Equity Research)
I'm asking about, like, have the tariffs, the discussion of where those tariffs are on the, the expansions under development changed since we've had incremental rerouting, or expected rerouting of Venezuelan barrels to the Gulf Coast? I imagine no from MLO Two, because that is into the PADD II market. I mean, those refineries are not going to see a drop of Venezuelan crude. But from MLO Three, if that is a Gulf Coast, oriented pathway, how does that change your economic thinking on terms?
Colin Gruending (EVP and President, Liquids Pipelines)
Yeah, I got you now. So, yeah, no, that's just I don't think there's much to talk about here. You know, our tolls are competitive. They need to be competitive. They're often cost-informed, right? Especially as, you know, we socialize some of those tariffs to all Mainline shippers. And remember that our expansions are optimizations, and so therefore, they're inherently efficient. So, those tariffs should be in the money and very competitive.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Colin-
Theresa Chen (Senior Analyst of Midstream and Refining Equity Research)
Thank you.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Lisa, just for clarity, like, MLO 2 is a full path. You know, you're getting all the way to the Gulf too. So yes, you're getting demand pull, and supply push into PADD 2, but also all the way down to the Gulf too. And I think that's some of the great thing about the MLOs. They're modest incremental builds, that allow producers to kinda witness the market as it develops, and have that insurance egress, but also keep a keen eye on the geopolitical side of things. And that's one of the great things about it, as opposed to, say, committing to a big greenfield that's probably post-2028. Thanks, Theresa.
Theresa Chen (Senior Analyst of Midstream and Refining Equity Research)
Thank-
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from a line of Aaron McNeil from TD Cowen. Your line is open.
Aaron MacNeil (Director of Equity Research Analyst)
Good morning, all. Thanks for taking my questions. I don't wanna understate the Venezuela risks, but maybe for fun, I'll just take the other side of it. You know, not only have we seen apportionment on the Mainline, but the level of apportionment has increased pretty meaningfully over the last few months. Has Mainline demand surprised you to the upside? And have you observed sort of an increased sense of urgency from your customers, given the high apportionment in February? And to the extent that you have a view, how are you thinking about Alberta storage levels going forward?
Colin Gruending (EVP and President, Liquids Pipelines)
Yeah. Hey, Aaron. I mean, this has been going on for 30 or 40 years, right? My whole career, I think we've seen strong demand for the Mainline for a whole bunch of reasons. I'm not gonna list them out here. But I think in the last couple of years, I think Canadian supply has probably surprised the consensus view to the upside a little bit. There's been you know, a number of optimizations like we're doing upstream by our customers, really high return, quick cycle, you know, attractive economics to just to get more out of their existing... They're basically rerating their kit.
And so I think that has probably surprised the consensus view, maybe us a little bit, but I think we've had a lot of conviction in the thesis the whole time, and it's in part why we designed, you know, the Mainline tolling deal the way we did, so that we could hustle for customers and participate in some of that upside. But as this continues, and as Greg said, hopefully, the Canadian, you know, political deal continues and accelerates in light of the potential Venezuelan competitive threat, and we can see more of this.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
You know, I think the other thing, Aaron, too—there's a good lesson in here, and you, you make a strong point about Western Canada. We've always had strong conviction, as, as Colin says. But I think the other aspect out there on the macro side that the market seems to underestimate is the power of consolidation and those major producers coming together and their ability, therefore, to, to wring out better economics and actually production at an economic rate. And that lesson needs to be considered as we think about the Permian, where, as you know, we've seen big consolidation there by really the best players on the planet in terms of oil production. And I fully expect they're gonna find ways to grow that production at economic rates, which again, I think is positive for, for Enbridge systems, both north and south. So, yeah, good point.
Aaron MacNeil (Director of Equity Research Analyst)
... maybe switching gears to gas transmission. You mentioned, you know, the CAD 10 billion of projects in the near-term opportunity bucket. You know, can you just speak to the growth rate of the segment currently? Obviously, it significantly exceeds the corporate average. And how sustainable do you see that sort of outsized growth rate for the segment specifically?
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Well, well, Matthew's here, and he's licking his chops, so I'll let him go at it.
Matthew Akman (EVP and President, Gas Transmission)
Yeah, thanks for the question. I think the big picture is everyone's starting to come onto the same page that the most important issues in energy these days for average people, which are affordability and reliability, are gonna be solved by natural gas. And so we see a long runway. There's, I think, a huge pent-up under supply of pipeline capacity across the country, and that's the starting point. And then you layer on top of that, the power demand and data centers that everyone's talking about, and of course, the export trends and looking to double exports out of the Gulf Coast. So we're extremely well-positioned, on all of those fronts. We talked, this morning about some of the expansions out of the Permian and the Eiger upsize and the Bay Runner extension.
But, you know, I think you can expect us also, as Greg alluded to, to be adding to our growth table in GTM on a few fronts in the near term. I don't know if you saw, but we just finished an open season on Vector into Wisconsin. A lot more demand there for power and natural gas for utility distribution. Texas LNG one, which we're very close to, has made great progress lately on both offtake and financing. You know, you might have read about that. And storage demand appetite is voracious in the Gulf Coast. We have some more expansion opportunities there in the near term. So those are just some of the things I think you could expect us to be talking about pretty soon and adding to that near-term growth table.
Longer term, when you look at all of our regions up and down the entire nation, from the Northeast to the Southeast, and pretty much all points in between, we see tons of opportunity. In the Northeast, we have a relatively small expansion going on in Algonquin, but there's appetite for large expansion there, and you're starting to see things thaw in terms of permitting and the realization that it just doesn't make sense to have, you know, 40% of power generation come from oil-burning oil in a cold snap or $150 gas, and we're the solution to that. In the Southeast, just population growth and obviously economic growth, and we have a couple of pipelines into there. We've been expanding SESH. We have Sabal Trail.
So yeah, we're just seeing fantastic opportunities all the way up and down the country, and I think you can expect to see growth out of us there in the near term and for many years going forward.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
I think from a capital allocation perspective, it also allows, Pat and I to make sure we get to, to pick the projects that actually provide the best returns, and be very picky about the regions. And if they don't meet the returns that are gonna get our growth rate or, or accelerate our growth rate, we don't have to allocate capital there. So it's a, it's a pretty nice setup from an investor perspective, but also from a capital allocation perspective.
Aaron MacNeil (Director of Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, thanks, everyone. I'll turn it back.
Matthew Akman (EVP and President, Gas Transmission)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from a line of Maurice Choy from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Maurice Choy (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I just want to pick up on that last question about returns. Slide 14, you've discussed the enhancing of asset returns with 2025 organic projects, about 11%, and 2026, just under 10%. When you think about your $10 billion-$20 billion of projects over the next 24 months, are we expecting these projects to have similar 10%-11% levels, or are the project mix so vastly different that might be outside of this range on a portfolio basis?
Matthew Akman (EVP and President, Gas Transmission)
Yeah, I think... Thanks for the question, Maurice. I think, our view would be that given the amount of opportunities we have in front of us, that they're probably gonna average up that as we go through time here, whether it's our renewable projects that we've talked about being in those mid-teens, high quality projects, strong returning in GTM. You know, we haven't had as many liquids projects entering service, as we will over the next three or four years, and those are some of our strongest projects as we go through things, and then balanced out, of course, by the utility.
So I think we're very confident that we can continue to improve returns, and not only from the projects we're sanctioning, but from optimizing the base assets that we have as an organization, whether that's through things we've done on the Mainline of volumes, whether that's through cost, technology. So I think it's kind of a two-prong approach, not just returns on new projects, but also on the base, base assets.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
I think the other thing we think about is risk-adjusted returns as well, because obviously, the utility doesn't earn those similar returns. But even there, we've seen in some recent rate cases to get slightly thicker equity and equity ROEs on that equity. So, you know, I think we try to balance the both of those, which a lot is one of the reasons why you can increase the dividend 30 years solid, without being concerned about being whipsawed back and forth by whether geopolitical or economic cycles or politics.
Maurice Choy (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
That makes sense. If I could take one step further on all our discussions about Canadian politics, given the Davos speech, geopolitical events, even the upcoming USMCA negotiations, have there been any signs in your regular engagements with the Canadian or Alberta governments on how-
Allen Capps (Head of Corporate Strategy and President, Renewable Power)
... they may support major energy infra projects, including perhaps backstopping cost overruns or financing?
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Well, I have not heard that on the latter. But, you know, obviously there's been lots of signs and signals. I think what we're looking for is actually concrete action. So, you know, the MOU out between the government of Alberta and the government of Canada was very encouraging. That's several months ago, now, and the world keeps changing, right? So I think it's not so much about the signals and the speeches, it's more about the actions and the results that I think is what our customers are looking for, what our investors are looking for, and what we're looking for. So, yeah, very positive on the signals. Very positive on the Prime Minister's comments about growing oil and natural gas. In terms of backstopping, you know, that's an interesting one.
You know, I guess you could say there's things like loan guarantees that happen for certain stakeholders. I don't see that happening for the, for private sector players, but, you know, some of these projects that are really big, you're gonna need some type of commitment of stable policy and maybe backstopping until it's built, if you will. But we do that in the Northeast, too. Our Northeast utility customers, Northeast United States, given some of the starts and stops we've seen there on the policy-wise, you know, we're not gonna take the financial risk on development of projects. We're quite happy once we get the go-ahead to take the risk on building them, but we're not gonna take the risk of them being stopped before they go into service or frankly, even FID.
'Cause some of these projects, you're spending $hundreds of millions before you even get regulatory approval.
Allen Capps (Head of Corporate Strategy and President, Renewable Power)
Understood. Just so I can clarify there, you're comfortable with the project development and your ability to deliver, but the policy protection and durability there, that's the biggest crux of this?
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Yeah, that's exactly right. So, you know, our many projects, and the larger the project you wanna go, you're talking many years, right? Which you can get changes in policy and politics. I don't think investors or the infrastructure companies should be taking on all that risk of the development in jurisdictions that have historically created challenge. Like, again, I look at the Northeast United States, we've had projects where we would have spent $several hundred million, and with the stroke of a pen, the project doesn't move forward. You saw that in Northern Gateway. We spent CAD 600 million, combo of shareholder money and customer money, and the rug was pulled out from underneath. So that's not the type of risk that we're looking to take on at this time.
We don't need to, with all the other opportunities.
Allen Capps (Head of Corporate Strategy and President, Renewable Power)
Well, that makes sense. Thank you very much for your color.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from a line of Jeremy Tonet from JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Speaker 16
Hey, this is Eli on for Jeremy. Just wanted to dive a bit deeper on the power demand opportunity set. You know, obviously, you've talked about the focus is on best returns, but we've seen some of your peers go for chunkier power solutions, including some behind-the-meter opportunities. Just in the context of this growing investment capacity, you know, how should we think about whether you'd consider these larger power-focused projects, and what those returns might look like? Thanks.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Yeah, I think we're quite comfortable with finding the opportunities associated with power at GTM and GDS. You know, I think as you look at GTM, sometimes I think it gets overlooked, but whether it's Line 31 in Louisiana or this AGT build or SESH or the TVA project, those are all chunky ways to play the power game. GDS, as you saw this morning, we're talking about 5 BCF of gas infrastructure potential for power demand growth. And that's on top of the things like over 1 gigawatt of power infrastructure we put in place for Duke. You've seen us do things like that in Ohio, Novva Data Center in Utah. So I think there's ways to play there. And then importantly, of course, the renewable side.
I'll go back to, I don't think most of our customers are that focused on the color of the electron these days. I think they're focused on the electron and some 3 gigawatts in the last couple of years that we've signed up for. We've been thinking about this a long time. In 2022, we bought Tri Global with a great background of large renewable projects that you can see us bringing into service. You know, you can't ask for better customers than Meta than Amazon, than Google, all of which we're playing. So don't see us going into the IPP, the gas IPP business.
I mean, maybe there's some bespoke opportunities here and there, but we like, you know, the long-term contracts that we're able to get with renewables, 15-, 20-year contracts, which are different than, you know, contracts often that you see in the IPP world of, say, a decade or so. So these, the risk profile fits us better in the way in which we're going at this. And Allen's here, he may wanna add to it as well.
Allen Capps (Head of Corporate Strategy and President, Renewable Power)
Yeah. Good morning, Eli. Thanks. I'll just mention one thing, too, that, you know, with the tax credit situation in the U.S., we've got over two gigs of safe harbored opportunities in our renewable space that should keep us busy for the next three years. So we have a really strong opportunity set on the, the solar, the wind, and, and also the battery side as well. So we're excited about that, and I think we'll focus on that from a power perspective.
... Awesome. Appreciate the color. And then, you know, maybe pivoting to the kind of BC storage opportunity landscape, can you just talk a little bit about some of the storage economics out there and what you're hearing from customers? I think sometimes, you know, the storage opportunity gets overlooked, but I, I imagine it could be pretty sizable for you guys. So, you know, just, you know, any messaging there? Thanks.
Matthew Akman (EVP and President, Gas Transmission)
Sure. Hi, it's Matthew. So, I think storage, not just in BC, but across our entire footprint, is a major theme, and the demand growth continues from, obviously LNG and, and then the power side. So we have in storage a significant expansion going on up in BC right now, at Aitken, 40 BCF. The market there is very attractive. And, you know, in Canada, a lot of that is gonna be based on the factors that have driven storage in BC, which is, the appetite for LNG. That's picked up the market there, and we're looking for obviously strong stakeholder and government support for further LNG exports out of Canada. You know, there's been talk of expansion of LNG Canada, maybe a second phase and other projects.
So, you know, we see strong organic growth on the rates we're getting, and then obviously just the expansion. And when you combine those, we're expanding by, you know, 20%-30% across our storage footprint. And then when you combine that with just steadily increasing storage rates from these fundamental trends that you asked about, we're seeing great organic growth out of our storage business for the next few years.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
You know, the other, the other thing, Eli, and, and Matthew, I think you'd agree, is that we're seeing really interesting contracting, where we still... Look, contracts for storage tend to be in that kinda two- to five-year range, typically. But we're seeing big chunks of our storage being contracted for the long term as well, in some cases, up to a decade. So it's fitting the risk profile, it's sort of fitting the return profile, and as you point out, I, I think Aitken Creek does get overlooked. I mean, it's the only major gas storage play that you've got in British Columbia at a time when, as you've seen on the Gulf Coast, as LNG projects come in, it's pretty exciting opportunity for us. So appreciate the question.
Great. I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Catellier from CIBC. Your line is open.
Robert Catellier (Energy Infrastructure Analyst)
Yes, good morning. I just wanted to see if you could follow up on your answers to Maurice's question, and provide some updated views on the progress that you're seeing in the Alberta, Canada MoU on setting the right investment conditions for a pipeline to the West Coast?
Matthew Akman (EVP and President, Gas Transmission)
Yeah, Rob, thanks for your question. I think what we're looking for, there's two important milestones that have been out there for a while that are coming up close. The April timeframe, where the government of Alberta and Canada, I think, are trying to come to a solution on industrial carbon charge, and stringency, et cetera, on those matters. That's gonna be super important for our customers, producers, to get a feel for whether or not Canada is competitive enough for them to continue to see the kind of growth that we've been seeing. So that's the key one. We continue to provide them advice, along with others in the industry, SOBO, TMX, et cetera, on pipeline opportunity in the to the West Coast.
But again, that's just on an advisory perspective. So I think there's a fair number of things still to come, but April is what I would look at to see if there's actually a solution, a competitive solution to the carbon issue for Canadian producers.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Hey, Robert, I'm just-
Robert Catellier (Energy Infrastructure Analyst)
Yeah, I agree with that.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Sorry, I'm just gonna weigh in. I think there's a lot of kind of media headlines around the West Coast pipe being kind of one of the Ps, and then pathways being a second P. But grossly undercovered is the third P, which is, I think, getting production up to fill a West Coast pipe. And I think those are the signals that are dear to the equation that we should all be watching for.
And again, Rob, the nice thing is, you know, I think in the meantime, while we wait, I think we've got great solutions for our customers in MLO 1 and 2. And if they get this right, obviously 3, and who knows, somewhere down the road, perhaps additional pipelines in other directions. But again, I think the insurance egress we're offering there is an important one for our customers until the skies are a little clearer, if you will, on that P for production that Colin mentioned.
Robert Catellier (Energy Infrastructure Analyst)
Okay, that's helpful. I guess we'll have to wait and see how it evolves. My second question was, I wondered if we could have a progress update on Woodfibre and how costs are tracking there versus expectations?
Matthew Akman (EVP and President, Gas Transmission)
Sure. Hey, Rob, it's Matthew. No major updates there. We remain on track for late 2027 in service. We made good progress on construction recently. We're about 60% complete on the project. 12 of the 14 modules are now on site, so we just have a couple left there. Put in a new flotel, so in December. So everything tracking to plan, and no updates on cost or in service.
Robert Catellier (Energy Infrastructure Analyst)
Okay. Thanks, everyone.
Matthew Akman (EVP and President, Gas Transmission)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Manav Gupta from UBS. Your line is open.
Manav Gupta (Managing Director)
Good morning, guys, and congrats on the dividend hike. Investors always appreciate it. My question here is, there's a lot of focus on Canadian heavy sour volume growth, but what is also growing out of Canada is light sweet crude, particularly if you look at some of the projections that CNQ is making. And one project which I find very interesting, which you kind of have been working on, is trying to get, like, 250,000 barrels more to DAPL. I think you probably have to reverse a line that is going over there, and then you probably work with ET to get more crude to DAPL. Can you talk a little bit about this particular project that gets more, probably, sweet crude from Canada into the U.S. refining system?
Colin Gruending (EVP and President, Liquids Pipelines)
Sure, Manav, good observation. Right, we've had a lot of talk on having less light. So MLO 2 is kind of a twofer that way. It deals with the light, right? As you've talked about the path, and then heavy on the Mainline. And, you're exactly right. That is the path we would move lights down the Mainline and then reverse a cross-border pipeline that currently flows south to north to be north to south, and connect it with Dakota Access Pipeline, which has some headroom, and then this Canadian crude would not displace Bakken producer headroom.
So it fits nicely into that DAPL underutilized asset of which we own a portion of, and then moves that light crude down into Patoka and then back up to Chicago and to feed those PADD II refining markets, and probably more markets than it does today. So there's a few embedded win-wins here, Manav. Thanks.
Manav Gupta (Managing Director)
Perfect. My quick follow-up is then, just to... I mean, you talked a little bit about it, but generally, what we're seeing is, you know, a lot of these behind-the-meter solutions come up and laterals are being built. But we do believe not enough storage, in terms of gas storage, is being built, particularly around, you know, data centers where the data centers are coming up. So can you talk a little bit about, you know, gas storage opportunities in key target markets around the data centers? So if you could talk a little bit about that and how Enbridge could benefit from it. Thank you.
Matthew Akman (EVP and President, Gas Transmission)
Hi, it's Matthew. I think you're on point there. You know, if you look at how peaky some of the power prices have been in certain other regions, pretty much across the country, that's just gonna continue to get worse unless we have more storage, obviously, and pipeline capacity. So those are some of the big opportunities. I think the storage itself is gonna kind of be where the geology is. And, you know, we're really bullish on that, and that's why we're expanding. We're gonna be up to 120 BCF of storage in both the Gulf Coast and in BC over the next two years. Those are great positions and further expansion potential, as I alluded to. We're seeing storage rates that are very supportive of strong economics and returns.
I think the contract duration is also extending, which is nice, and also the customer base is further diversifying. And so that is coming right, further and further into our wheelhouse and the way we like to do things at Enbridge: longer contracts, strong double-digit returns, and, low or no commodity exposure. So we got a good position, where we are, and you'll look forward to more expansions on those. Hey, Michele, you might wanna add, sometimes it's forgotten we have a nice unregulated storage position in our gas distribution business in the Great Lakes, as well. And obviously, that's an area where you see both industrial growth, data center growth as well, too.
Michele Harradence (President, Gas Distribution and Storage)
Yeah, that's right. I mean, we have about 300 BCF of storage in the Great Lakes region just in Ontario, and we have another 50 or so. So I think it's 290, of which we have about 110 unregulated at Dawn and 180 that's regulated. Then we have another 60 BCF in Ontario, and of course, we have Wexpro, which is an important asset in Utah, all of which is really helping on the affordability front. To Matthew's point about volatility, I mean, Dawn saw very stable prices the last few weeks when we saw things escalating elsewhere. But in terms of expansion capability, we're looking across all of the GDS systems for more storage. We think it's incredibly important for our customers. And then on the unregulated side, we just keep chipping away.
We added 1 BCF last year. We've got 4 BCF we're adding to Dawn this year. We've got a number of projects in the pipeline. We see a lot of, of potential to keep adding to that, and the same sort of dynamics that Matthew discussed about longer-term contracts, good contracts, exactly what we like.
Matthew Akman (EVP and President, Gas Transmission)
Yeah. Thanks, Manav.
Manav Gupta (Managing Director)
Thank you so much. Thank you.
Michele Harradence (President, Gas Distribution and Storage)
Your next question comes from the line of Ben Pham from BMO. Your line is open.
Ben Pham (Managing Director)
Hi, good morning. I had a couple of follow-up questions on the renewable power sleeve, your business. You mentioned the 1 gig you're working on, the 2 gig, Safe Harbor. Can you add context on the total development portfolio you have in gigawatts, and what are your plans in terms of, do you wanna replenish it or not, going forward?
Colin Gruending (EVP and President, Liquids Pipelines)
Yeah, thanks, Ben. So right now, I mean, the total gross generation that we have when you include the growth is about 7.4 gigawatts. That's on a gross basis. Say that just because, you know, we do have some JVs that would dilute that a bit. But I think on a net basis, we're, like, 4.3 gigs, if you include all of the growth that we have in the portfolio right now and the existing and what we have actually in service and up and running. But the point I was trying to make is that, you know, in a time where tax credits are a bit challenged with some of the
Allen Capps (Head of Corporate Strategy and President, Renewable Power)
... So with, with what's facing us probably in, in July 4th, we've got a portfolio of diversified projects that meet, well over 2 gigs, of opportunity, that we think, all of which have a lot of veracity and we think, have a good shot at, at going into FID and, and ultimately into service, and that, that'll keep us, full for the next 3 years.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Ben, if your question's around would we pick up additional assets? I mean, I guess we could look, but that's not something we're looking at right now. We've got a nice backlog of stuff, as Allen said. And then, you know, post-2028, we'll see where we are on whether power prices move up and/or there's change in policy and stuff. But a good setup right now for the coming years and through the decade.
Ben Pham (Managing Director)
Yeah, I just want to clarify some of those numbers. That 4.3 gigawatts, that's in service.
Allen Capps (Head of Corporate Strategy and President, Renewable Power)
You-
Ben Pham (Managing Director)
Assets operation?
Allen Capps (Head of Corporate Strategy and President, Renewable Power)
Yeah, if you take what's in service, that's our net basis. So basically, you know, some of our stuff's in JV, so on a net basis, our interest, if you take what's in service today plus what we've FID-ed and we have under construction, you get to 4.3 gigs.
Ben Pham (Managing Director)
Okay. And then, so then beyond that, though, you don't have lease agreements and land that, you know, some of these renewable companies have, you know, 10, 20, 30 gigawatts of sites that they're developing. I was more curious about that number.
Allen Capps (Head of Corporate Strategy and President, Renewable Power)
Yeah. Ours is more like about, you know, a little over 2. And if you think about it, when you think about the CAD 1 billion-CAD 1.5 billion of capital that we're targeting to spend on an annual basis, that's right in the sweet spot for us, like I said, over the next 3 or 4 years.
Ben Pham (Managing Director)
I gotcha. Maybe there's a last few questions on this, on Ontario. In the past, you've involved electric transmission. You got out. Looks like the province may be looking at competitive bidding projects. Is that something Enbridge will be potentially interested in coming back in?
Allen Capps (Head of Corporate Strategy and President, Renewable Power)
Well, well, you know, we have the Gichigami project that we're looking at right now, and, which is a wind project. And, you know, we've bid into the ISO. They're waiting to hear back whether or not our bid was successful. That's, something we're focused on in, on Ontario. You know, again, I'll just say this, one of the things, on the Canadian side is it's a very competitive market, and, that sometimes people are willing to take, returns that are lower than what we would. So, you know, we always have to focus on capital allocation. You know, our business unit competes against the other business units here, on a healthy basis. So we have to make sure that we have, good return projects.
Sometimes that can be a bit challenged, but we think the Gichigami project could be a real good one if it does land.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Specific to electric transmission, I don't see us getting back into. We were only there for a brief period of time. It worked out okay on the sale, but transmission, electric transmission is a very different risk profile, and I would not hunt currently in Enbridge's opportunities.
Ben Pham (Managing Director)
Okay, gotcha, 'cause I was specifically referring to that sub C transmission project that the government's looking at. Okay, thanks a lot.
Greg Ebel (President and CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Marlon Samuel for closing remarks.
Marlon Samuel (VP of Investor Relations and Insurance)
Great. Thank you, and we appreciate your ongoing interest in Enbridge. As always, our investor relations team is available following the call for any additional questions that you may have. Once again, thank you and have a great day.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.