Eos Energy Enterprises - Q4 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, and welcome to Eos Energy Enterprises fourth quarter and full-year 2023 conference call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded, and your participation implies consent to such recording. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Liz Higley, Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Liz Higley (Director of Investor Relations)

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Eos's financial results and conference call for the fourth quarter and full-year 2023. On the call today, we have Eos CEO, Joe Mastrangelo, and CFO, Nathan Kroeker. Before we begin, allow me to provide a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements. This call, including the Q&A portion of the call, may include forward-looking statements, including but not limited to current expectations with respect to future results and outlook for our company, and statements regarding our ability to secure final approval of a loan from the Department of Energy, LPO, or our anticipated use of proceeds from any loan facility provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions.

Should any of these risks materialize or should our assumptions prove to be incorrect, our actual results may differ materially from our expectation or those implied by these forward-looking statements. The risks and uncertainties that forward-looking statements are subject to are described in our SEC filings. Forward-looking statements represent our beliefs and assumptions only as of the date such statements are made. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call to reflect events or circumstances after today, or to reflect new information or the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as required by law. This conference call will be available for replay via webcast through Eos's Investor Relations website at investors.eosc.com. Joe and Nathan will walk you through the company highlights, financial results, and business priorities before we proceed to Q&A. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Eos CEO, Joe Mastrangelo.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Thanks, Liz, and welcome, everybody. Great to have everyone on the call here this morning. Let's jump right to page three and go through some highlights from last year. You know, first, I think the first place to start off is just the improvement that we've seen on gross margins as we've launched the Z3 product. You know, year-over-year, we see a 41% improvement. In the fourth quarter alone, when we really saw production of the Z3 ramp, we had a 66% gross margin improvement versus the prior year period. It just goes to show all the things that we've been saying about the Z3 are starting to show themselves in the financials as we move forward and start putting product out into the field.

And when you look at the year in and of itself, it was kind of a bookend year, where in Q1 was our last full quarter of Gen 2.3 production, and in Q4 was our first quarter of Z3 production. Those were our two highest quarters in revenue for the company. I think when you look at how Nathan will talk about the year, I think you're gonna see some similar dynamics when you look at 2024, just because, you know, as we do the transition to some cost out and also the new state-of-the-art manufacturing line, I think you're gonna see a similar quarterly profile as you move forward throughout the year.

I think with the Z3 is showing is the ability to generate revenue off of the semi-automated line, drive down cost and improve gross margins, just show why we've been so positive about getting the Z3 out to customers. Also, I think one of the major accomplishments for the team was being the first non-lithium-ion battery company to qualify for a Title 17 loan with the Department of Energy. Nathan will talk about where we are in that process, but we continue to feel like we're on track to closing that loan as we work through and get the first automated line up and running here in the second quarter of 2024. Also, you know, we've designed and are developing that state-of-the-art line up in up in Wisconsin with our automation partner, ACRO Automation.

We feel really good about what, How the line looks when you go actually see it. You know, I've been up there a couple of times to, to watch the work being done. It is a, it is a well-done, line with great craftsmanship, and it's actually pretty emotional when you start seeing the robots actually moving and you start to see the vision of how we wanted to build the Z3 take shape. So a lot in 2023 to be proud of, continue to have to work and close that gap on profitability, and that's, as we talked about back in December, that's the main focus here as we look at, at 2024. If we go to page four, just some quick operating highlights. Continue to see growth in our, in our opportunity pipeline, you know, up 77%, at $13 billion.

You know, I think one of the biggest things in 2023, when you look at where we came in at, you know, we came in lower than our order target. And I'll talk a little bit about the dynamics that we see within the pipeline and why we feel like we're building a stronger pipeline that's gonna lead to orders growth as the Z3 gets out in the field. Notwithstanding that, our backlog was still up 15% year-over-year, which in a normal operating circumstances, with that type of order growth, you'd be pretty proud of it. But looking at the opportunity, the secular shift in the industry, we know that line has to grow faster when the team is focused on bringing in the opportunities and finding, as long-duration energy storage becomes more critical, finding those opportunities with key customers.

I'll also talk a little bit in the commercial section about planting those seeds for future growth. You know, our discharge energy, you know, is up at 1.8 GWh, 1.4 of those GWh out in the field. You know, every cycle that we run is a learning for us. It helps us make the the software better. It helps us understand how the customer derives revenue off of our product. It's the best laboratory is actually out in the field, not actually in a laboratory.

Revenue for 2023, Nathan will walk through the comparisons of this, you know, $16.4 million, you know, down slightly versus prior year. But again, executing the transition to the Z3 while working through the DOE loan, while timing all that with capital raises to effectively get the company through the year, is something that I think we feel proud of and feel like it's a foundation we can build off of here in 2024.

Cash on hand, you know, we landed with $69.5 million, not including $15 million in restricted cash, which we have for the loan that we have with Atlas. Again, the team is laser-focused on making every dollar count. You know, I've always said every employee has stock in the company, so every employee thinks and acts like owners. We are committed to work through and really navigate through this part of going from truly a R&D company into a full-fledged, profitable operating company as we approach year-end 2024. Let's move to page five.

Just quick update on the Z3. I talked a little bit about it. If we start off on the left-hand side of the page, on the commercial dynamics, we have 1.9 GWh, almost the same size of our backlog, and what I would call late-stage opportunities. These are opportunities where customers are either getting approval, they're waiting for permits, they're waiting for grants from the Department of Energy that really make us feel good about the selection of the technology and the customers that we're working with. The focus here going forward is really converting this great pipeline number into, into a great, orders backlog and orders number. Semi-automated, manufacturing line, you know, we went from 10 minutes of cycle time at launch to 3 minutes. We hit about 3% scrap when you normalize for run rate.

You know, when you look at where we are as we get into Q1 and to Q2, there's gonna be a little bit lower utilization on the line versus what we saw in Q4, and that's basically about the transition to lower-cost raw materials and starting to implement the line here in Turtle Creek. We achieved power-on status in all motion systems in the line, this was back mid-February, with the state-of-the-art line one. You know, we're gearing up now for the SAT in Milwaukee at ACRO, and the SAT coming up in Q2 in Turtle Creek. We feel really good about the plan that we laid out.

Having the line in Milwaukee at ACRO allows us to leverage their technical expertise real time and bring people on the floor to troubleshoot and work through the critical elements of debugging and finalizing mechanical completion. It's been a good partnership, and we feel really good about where we are right now. On our cost roadmap, I'll talk a little bit about this on the other side of the page, but you know, we achieved 30% of the plan that we laid out on December twelfth, as far as taking out costs. We see additional cost out benefits coming in in Q1, and then continuing as we go through 2024, to culminate in being contribution margin positive at the end of the year. We've shipped Z3 Cubes to four customers.

Many of those are gonna be starting installation here as we're, we're talking now, and then the biggest thing from that is taking those installations, generating the field data, to show what we're seeing in every factory acceptance test that we do and every test cycle that we run in Edison, that the product performs and meets the specifications that are out in the field. Our container performance, you know, right now, you know, we've always talked about, you know, depending on duration, you get different output on a container, and that's for every technology, not just our technology. You know, if you do short duration right now, which shipping is a 600 kWh container, if you do longer duration, it's 695 kWh.

That will improve throughout the year to where we'll culminate in Q4 with an 800 kWh container, with a lot of the work that the R&D and engineering teams are doing right now. Finally, on product certifications, you know, we are UL 1973 approved, and at the same time, we're NDAA compliant, which is very important when you look at the energy storage and the energy industry in general, in the United States. I think it's important to note that our product is already compliant and puts aside, not only do you get the non-flammability, the flexibility and performance, the recyclability, the safety factor, you also get security around our product. You know, we are sourcing key components from here in the United States.

Although on a part basis it may cost more, at the same time, it gives you the security of knowing that this product can be on the grid and de-risks it, the energy security that we're all worried about. If we go over to the right-hand side of the page, I wanna start with the upper right. You know, this is an update of the cost out walk that we laid out in our strategic outlook back in December. And when you look at, in the beginning, you see, like, we started off at 100. We're now down at 71%, so 30%, 29%, 30% cost out of the product. A lot of that has to do with ramping up the line. It also has to do with the material cost out. You know, the Z3 product is a simple product.

It's a simple product that really has a good bill of material cost position. We now need to continue to ramp that product. So when you look at, like, the biggest things, so like, when you tell people we wanna get down to Z3 at scale, at 20% of what it was at launch, you have to consider, like, how our factory works and where this comes in as far as what we need to do. And I wanna go down to the bottom of the page and talk about the Q4 2023 cost makeup. So when you look at COGS, you know, you start to take out that... You know, 11% of that COGS number was building spares for the Gen 2.3. Another 4% was Z3 launch costs.

So these were the costs of tuning the line, running material through the line as we start to figure out how to balance, not normal run rate. Now, the good news around that 4%, it's lower than what we initially had planned for, and one of the reasons why, when we talk about the Z3 launch and the state-of-the-art line, we think the overall program costs will come in below budget because we were able to, to ramp up the semi-automated line, learn from that, and apply it to the state-of-the-art line. Then you have, you know, a 25% of this is labor and overhead under absorption.... So why do we say that? Well, think about our factory, right? The factory that we're in, or the footprint that we have for manufacturing, is essentially three locations of approximately 50,000 sq ft.

One of those locations does containerization, another of those locations houses the semi-automated line, and the third one was where the Gen 2.3 line was located, and is where the state-of-the-art line will go into when we ship it from ACRO into Eos. That one-third of that line was basically idle as we went through. So when you think about how we're gonna take cost out of the product going forward, it's truly getting better labor and overhead utilization on a per unit basis as you ramp manufacturing. This is not invention, this is not complex material science, this is executing on a plan to deliver volume. Now, what I feel really good about is, as we're going through and looking at the cost out roadmap, this is gonna continue. It's not going to stop at this 20% of the launch costs.

We are already starting to refresh the cost out pipeline and start looking to what that will look like beyond 2024. So in an early-stage product like the Z3, there's significant work that we can still do to continue to take costs out, but the initial progress and performance in the first quarter of really producing the product shows that the thesis that we had around what the product can do will hold. Now it's a matter of scaling and getting the and utilizing our cost, our cost profile to better take down unit costs and drive profitability into the organization. Transitioning over to the commercial opportunity pipeline orders backlog. Let's just go to the classic slide on page seven to talk about some of the dynamics that we're seeing. You know, we saw a drop year-over-year in lead generation.

What I'd like everyone to know about is, like, not, I'm not concerned about that, just in the sense that we saw an increase in what I would call solid projects. So we have less people coming to us with ideas and more people coming to us with solid opportunities. So seeing that number go down is not concerning to me, and we always talked about there being breakage of each one of these buckets as you transition. You're hoping to transition probably 30% of it to the next, to the next bucket to come up with the numbers that you wanna, that you wanna have when you're operating, when you're operating at scale. We saw a significant increase in both the active proposals and the LOI firm commitments.

We've got to really work on that LOI firm commitment to transition those opportunities over into active backlog with down payments. The team is working on this. What I would say is, no one is satisfied with the performance that we've had on delivering orders here as we went through the last year. What I do feel good about are the conversations that we're having with customers, where we're positioning the company to grow for the future, and how customers are really saying, "We like the Z3 product. We have a project. Work through me, work with me to get through closure of these projects to get the technology out in the field." And that's that 1.9 GWh that I talked about earlier. So this is an area where we're focused on it. We need to improve our performance.

We will improve our performance over time, but feel really good about the initial interest and how customers are approaching the Z3. Where they are doing that lays out on page eight. You know, I wanna talk about what I would say are the four main areas of growth. I talked earlier in the U.S. around this national security concerns, you know, shift to, to more domestic content. We're seeing longer duration energy storage opportunities coming through, and also starting to see an interest from high energy consumption applications like data centers, and how our product can match up with either wind or solar, or on a standalone basis, to help meet those energy needs. You know, when you look at the opportunity, look, the U.S. government banned the Defense Department from procuring batteries produced by four specific Chinese companies.

You know, we sit here, and as I said earlier, that's where NDAA compliance comes in. And we also sit here and say to the market, "Here is an alternative that is invented in the U.S., manufactured in the U.S., with U.S. materials on U.S. manufacturing equipment." It meets that need and allays the concern around national security as you think about our grid. Next one, you know, when you look at Italy, Italy, you know, recently got an incentive program approved to fund 9 GW, 71 GWh of energy storage that'll be implemented over the out until 2030. You know, we're very excited. I mean, we recently shipped one Eos Z3 Cube to Sicily to start use case testing with a key customer.

You know, that's gonna lay the foundation for when the auction happens, and we're starting to see this auction also call for 10% of that auction being non-lithium ion technology. It doesn't stop at 10%, but it gives it a floor, and that's why we're excited and focused to get that project up and running in Sicily, and then from there, look at how we expand going forward. Australia, another core market. As you see growth, you know, when you look at their market size, it's very big. We, given the size of the company, need to do this in partnership with someone. You know, we're working with a couple of different companies down there.

We're working to find an initial commercial pilot, and commercial pilot meaning multiple megawatt, multiple megawatt hours, like you've seen and seen us talk about with companies like Dominion and Duke here in the United States. But to really be able to do that with a core, large natural resource company, to be able to figure out how we're gonna grow in Australia and grow the right way in Australia, because of the distances here, we have to do this right and be thoughtful about it, but a great opportunity as we look forward. The fourth one being India. You know, India is targeting a 500 GWh renewable energy target by 2030. You know, the interesting thing around India is they're coming up and bidding projects where they're talking about 24-hour renewables, so that becomes a mix of solar, wind, and energy storage.

What we're working with, with two large Indian corporations, is understanding how having it an asset like the Z3 Cube in that 24-hour energy mix allows you to better balance when wind isn't there, and better balance the solar demand, and come up with a more profitable project. It's initial work that we're going through, but we feel really good about where we're headed, and we'll keep everyone updated on this. So when you really think about this, the U.S. is where we're shipping the majority of our product. We have a pilot going to Italy to position ourselves for long-term out there. We're working with partners for Australia and India to access those markets, and as we move forward, we'll keep everybody posted on the progress here.

But we're seeing more and more opportunities where people are starting to see having a flexible, safe, secure... And another real thing that we've never really talked about, we've been too quiet about, is the fact that the Z3 is also silent. You know, it doesn't make any noise because it doesn't have any HVAC systems. And that's also important when you think about siting these things in urban areas. No one wants to have a lot of noise around it, and our product actually doesn't make any noise. You know, in fact, we had a customer once tell us, "We don't know when we're using your product because you don't consume any power, and you don't make any noise." Those are strengths as you start thinking about how the market is gonna evolve in the future.

Now, let's look at operational scale and building capacity for the company. Let's go to page 10 for an update on the state-of-the-art manufacturing line. You know, we have a highly efficient capital model for building out capacity, and you're starting to see that more and more as we are building out our line compared to what you hear around lithium-ion manufacturing. You know, we believe it's $30 million CapEx for 1 GWh compared to $85 million for 1 GWh of lithium-ion, knowing that we can become profitable at that 1 GWh, whereas much larger factories are required to get the economy of scale to hit profitability with lithium-ion. Currently, we're on budget for the plan. As I said, you know, there are some recent pictures from ACRO as the line is being tuned.

You know, it is one of those moments where you stand and you watch this, and you think about where the company has come from in the past five years, and how this positions us for future growth. You know, having a full line assembled on the ACRO floor, seeing the power on, seeing the robots moving, seeing our raw materials move across the line, you know, it just goes to show the opportunity that we have. And working with ACRO, it's actually, you know, helps me sleep well at night because they look at what we're trying to do, and they kinda give you a shrug of the shoulders and say, "We've been here before. This is what our expertise is. We're gonna build you a great product." And so far, that's what's been happening.

You know, as you look at where we're headed, you know, we are doing the system integration and the final debugging of the line. At the same time, we've also come up with this concept of A and B teams rotating in and out of ACRO on a biweekly basis. You know, that - what that means is that we have people going up to ACRO, helping to assemble a line, so the maintenance teams are there helping assemble a line. And then we're also gonna start sending operators up to start get trained on the line, so that when it hits the floor in Turtle Creek, we're all familiar with it, and we know how this works. We're currently on schedule for the installation and commissioning in Q2, and we'll keep everyone updated on the progress.

But, you know, it really is something to see when you see it live. Going to page 11, you know, you know, look, the picture on the left really shows the simplicity of the product. We're now positioning that, this product to take out the volatility around raw materials. You know, we signed a long-term agreement with both TETRA and SABIC: TETRA for our electrolyte, SABIC for our conductive polymers. The same time, we're doing work to get graphitized felt. You know, what we've done on our supply chain, is we moved from China to Asia, and now looking at balancing out Asia with a move into the U.S. We're starting to build this out. This is a, you know, a somewhat complex supply chain when you look at it wing to wing.

So it's where do you get your PAN Fiber from? How do you needle that PAN Fiber, or actually turn PAN Fiber into felt? And then how you graphitize that. The good news is that we're finding U.S.-based suppliers that are interested in working with us. We'll keep everyone updated on that, but we really feel good about the work that we're doing there and the cost position that it's driving for us as we move forward. And then just on the core plastic, you know, the tub and the lid for the battery, you know, we buy 100% in the U.S. from multiple suppliers, and we're expanding capacity and introducing redundancy to get protection around the market. But the goal here is to just drive that battery cost down.

You know, for us, you know, where comparison points get difficult is when people talk about lithium-ion cells being at a certain cost point. We don't actually manufacture cells; we build modules. What you look at there is 20 cells that make up a module. And what we see as we look forward, going back to that cost walk I talked about earlier, is a product that will be very competitive on a per unit basis as we move forward, just as we continue to drive simplicity and focus and partner with large strategic companies to build our product. If we go to page 12, just a quick update, I really think on two programs that were critical and part of the cutover that we're gonna be doing here in the first quarter.

On the left-hand side, you know, if you look at the details there, what you see on the left-hand side is our old three bipolar and the new one. Basically, what you see is you see less white plastic, more black area. Having more black area means you have more surface area to generate energy out of. That both takes cost out of the product and improves performance, and that's where we start talking about getting to fourth quarter and having an 800 kWh cube performance. That's where a lot of that performance comes from. And at the same time, when you look in the middle here, we've replaced titanium with a, with conductive plastic. You know, that new piece there is significantly less expensive to produce.

than the old one, you know, when you think about it, 65% lower, and it simplifies our manufacturing process, and that's what drives up our, our performance to the 695, and then eventually to the 800 as we get to year-end. As I talked about before, you know, we've hit 30% of our plan that we've laid out in 12/12. We've got additional cost out, improvements coming for late Q1, 2024. We schedule and get the state-of-the-art line up and running in Q2, and then hit the energy density in Q4, and the company and the, and the product is operating at scale. It's pretty exciting, and, you know, when I look back on this, I know, you know, some people would say: Why didn't you just go to the Z3 in the beginning?

If we hadn't done the Gen 2.3, we would have never learned the valuable lessons on how to manufacture that led to the Z3. I think when we were looking at the Gen 2.3 and the Z3, there were a lot of unknowns around this concept of doing a tub insertion assembly design, and actually manufacturing the Gen 2.3, we learned a lot that led to where the Z3 now is, and the fact that we were able to launch it the way that we did in Q4. So more to come as we move forward. I wanna thank everybody for listening. I'll turn it over to Nathan. Thank you.

Nathan Kroeker (CFO)

Thanks, Joe, and thanks everyone for joining us this morning. Let me start with an update on cash. We ended 2023 with $69.5 million in cash on the balance sheet, and since year-end, we have collected some customer deposits and milestone payments, and we have current line of sight to collecting on three or four significant customer payments in the next couple of months as we continue to work towards getting the first advance on the DOE loan. We are also in the process of finalizing negotiations with the expectation to monetize our 2023 production tax credits in the coming weeks, and we also expect to monetize our 2024 credits on a monthly or quarterly basis going forward.

Consistent with previously announced transactions in the market, we anticipate there to be a 5%-10% discount on these credits upon monetization, with the economics improving as the size of the credits increases over time. With that, let's get to our financial results. Turning to the next few slides, I will walk through the fourth quarter and full-year financial performance, along with an outlook for 2024. Now, for the fourth quarter, revenue in the quarter was $6.6 million, up 148% compared to revenue of $2.7 million in Q4 of 2022, and up 866% compared to revenue of $0.7 million in Q3 of 2023.

The year-over-year growth in revenue was a result of our transition from Gen 2.3 to the Eos Z3 Cube, while the sequential quarterly growth was driven by higher production volumes off the semi-automated manufacturing line as we ramped up production. We shipped our first Eos Z3 Cubes at the end of September to two different customers, and we are in the process of delivering a much larger project in Orchard, Texas, to a key customer owned by a large North American infrastructure fund, which is scheduled to be completed in the next few weeks. Cost of goods sold for the quarter was $30.4 million, a 1% decrease versus prior year, despite higher production volumes, resulting in a 66% gross margin improvement year-over-year, primarily attributable to better unit economics of Z3.

During the quarter, we saw a decrease of approximately 30% in costs as a result of improved labor and overhead absorption, in addition to bill of material cost reductions. These reductions were partially offset by increased scrap costs from process control changes. Fourth quarter operating expenses were $18.5 million, a 10% decrease from the prior year period, primarily attributable to there being no write-off of assets this quarter, and partially offset by an increase in payroll-related expenses, such as stock-based compensation in the quarter. Total operating expenses of $18.5 million included $4.1 million of non-cash items, including stock-based compensation, depreciation, and amortization.

The resulting operating loss for the quarter was $42.2 million, or $35.8 million when you exclude non-cash items such as stock-based compensation, depreciation, and amortization, and a net loss of $41.2 million. This compares to an operating loss of $48.6 million and a net loss of $56.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, despite 2022 having lower production volumes. So as Joe highlighted earlier, you can see all of our hard work beginning to pay off. Now, turning to slide 15 to review 2023 full-year performance.

Revenue for the full-year 2023 was $16.4 million, a slight decrease compared to revenue of $17.9 million for full-year 2022, as we concluded our Gen 2.3 production in the first half of 2023 and stood up the Z3 manufacturing processes in an effort to launch production at the end of the third quarter. Cost of goods sold was $89.8 million, a $63.5 million decrease compared to the prior year, delivering an improvement of 41% in gross margins year-over-year, driven by lower input costs, combined with improved Z3 manufacturability. During the year, we recognized $3.3 million in production tax credits, net of the anticipated monetization discount. We are now recognizing both the 45X and the 10% electrode active material credits.

We are working towards monetizing both the 2023 and 2024 tax credits at a small discount, as we discussed earlier. We invested $18.7 million in research and development in 2023, of which $2.3 million was related to non-cash items such as stock-based compensation, depreciation, and amortization. This was in line with what we discussed on December 12th, and we believe this is a good run rate for R&D on a go-forward basis. We continue to invest in our Z3 battery technology, optimize our BMS system, and identify various initiatives to reduce battery and system costs. SG&A for the year was $53.7 million, a 12% decrease compared to $60.6 million in 2022, as we worked on tighter cost control and reducing outside services.

Full year SG&A included $12.3 million, or approximately 23% of non-cash items, including stock compensation, depreciation, and amortization. Total operating expense for the year was $79.5 million, a 7% decrease versus prior year, of which $14.7 million, or approximately 20%, was non-cash related and $7.2 million was related to asset write-offs as we transitioned manufacturing to Z3. Full year operating loss was $152.9 million, with a net loss of $229.5 million or $145.3 million, excluding non-cash items, including the fair value treatment of our derivative liabilities, non-cash interest expense, stock-based compensation, depreciation, and amortization, a 30% year-over-year improvement.

Now, moving to slide 16, I want to spend some time looking at our past production and what we should expect going forward as we get into the expected financial performance for 2024. As you can see on the left-hand side of the page, Q4 revenues increased 866% over Q4 of this year, and 148% over Q4 of last year, as we significantly increased production volumes off the semi-automated line. As discussed earlier, we shipped our first Z3 Cubes at the end of September and then ramped up production in Q4, while still producing well below capacity on the semi-automated manufacturing line. While this resulted in us coming in below our initial 2023 revenue guidance, we made the decision to balance factory output with critical customer commitments.

We expect to continue making these trade-offs as we prioritize working capital conservation ahead of securing our long-term financing. We continue to work alongside our customers to understand delivery timelines based on their site readiness and aligning these obligations with our cost-out roadmap. As a result, we currently expect production rates for the first half of the year to be similar or slightly above what we saw in Q4 of 2023. Before we conclude, we want to initiate guidance for 2024 on both revenue and profitability. Regarding our revenue estimates for 2024, we expect to be between $60 million-$90 million, based on our current production schedule and anticipated customer delivery schedules, which includes us running the semi-automated line for the first part of the year and then transitioning to initial production of batteries on the new state-of-the-art line before the end of the second quarter.

As we have discussed in the past, we have a list of customer projects scheduled that supports this revenue plan, and we are continuously working with customers to finalize the delivery dates based on their site readiness. From a profitability perspective, we expect to achieve positive contribution margin in the fourth quarter. Positive contribution margin is defined as revenue, less direct labor and direct materials, also taking into account the benefit of the production tax credits. As discussed on December the twelfth, and as Joe detailed earlier, we have a roadmap to reduce material and labor costs while increasing energy density that is expected to result in an 80% reduction in overall product costs on a $/kWh basis, from initial launch to scale, currently anticipated in early 2025.

In calendar 2024, we expect to reduce costs by approximately 76% from initial commercial launch, with further cost out to be achieved when we increase our capacity in the beginning of 2025. Once we achieve positive contribution margin, we intend to increase our production significantly now that every incremental unit that we produce helps to cover our fixed costs. Since the Z3 launch in mid 2023, we have achieved approximately 30% of the total expected cost reductions, with additional initiatives to begin cutting in by the end of the first quarter. So as we move into 2024, we expect to continue balancing key customer schedules with necessary workforce development, product design enhancements, and cost out, up until the critical point at which each individual battery module we build contributes to our bottom line.

We believe this disciplined manufacturing approach will allow us to conserve capital as we work on closing the DOE loan and lead to positive contribution margins in Q4 of this year. With that, I want to thank everybody for their time and for listening today. I would now like to turn it over to the operator for questions. Operator?

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one, one. If your question hasn't answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, please press star one, one again. Our first question comes from Christopher Souther with B. Riley. Your line is open.

Christopher Souther (Analyst)

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions and congrats on the continued progress here. Maybe just the first one on the guidance of $60 million-$90 million versus the... I think you'd called out like $75 million-$100 million that you had visibility on between backlog and LOI back in September. Is there, you know, a slight delta, or, you know, is the slight delta there just you're only including stuff that's only in the backlog for the guidance? Is there, you know, any timing shift on production or customer timing? Or, you know, is it conservatism on either production or customer timing? Just wanted to get a sense of like what's baked into the $60 million-$90 million. Thanks.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Yeah. Hey, Chris. Morning. So look, it's all the above. So there's a piece of this here where, you know, we're looking at the pipeline of opportunities when customers need to execute on projects at the same time, the ramp of the line, and coming up with a range of revenue that makes sense for us to be able to as we execute on ramping the line up in the second half of this year. Along with timing the customers, and we'll keep everybody updated on how that evolves throughout the year.

Christopher Souther (Analyst)

Got it. Okay. And then, yeah, maybe just. Yeah, I appreciate all the details around the cost out progress. Can you square the, you know, the two different, you know, slide five, charts there between the 4Q 2023 COGS and the breakdown with the cost out reduction? Should, should we just back out the Gen 2.3 from COGS to get, like, a clean sense of what we'd include in, you know, the cost reduction to date and for kind of go-forward purposes? Is that kind of the best way to, to look at that, or should we take out any of the other, you know, either launch costs or, you know, labor, et cetera?

Nathan Kroeker (CFO)

So, Chris, I would look at it as, as a couple different things going on here. If you look at the top chart on slide five, we're walking you through, you know, 29% cost out reduction that has been achieved to date. That's what we achieved in the fourth quarter. And it comes from both, you know, operations as well as supply chain components to get there. Then we give you the line of sight of where we think we're gonna end the year based on continued efforts from both R&D, supply chain operations, you know, really all aspects of our cost out program. I think we'll get down 76% of the total 80% that we highlighted back in December.

More work to do in the first part of 2025, but as you can see on the chart, the lion's share of the cost out that we have line of sight into today, we expect to occur in 2024. On the bottom of the page, we were trying to give you a sense of how far we have left to go in order to get to cost-positive contribution margin. If you take our $30.4 million in COGS for the quarter, and you back out the stuff that really doesn't have to do with the cost out program at hand, right? So Gen 2.3, you know, that's legacy stuff, so take that out. Z3 launch costs, that's, you know, again, that occurs once when you launch, but that's not really indicative of the future run rate.

Labor and overhead under absorption, as Joe talked about, we have a big factory, big cost associated with that, that are being absorbed by a few units. So if you normalize that for the actual units of production in the quarter, that's about 25% that you can take out. So you're left with 60% of that number, call it $18 million. That's the focus when we shift to cost out going forward in both materials and labor, labor being tied to the automation. That's the $18 million number that we're starting on in order to drive costs out in 2024. And with the cost out program that you see on the chart above, we think we get to positive contribution margin in the fourth quarter.

Christopher Souther (Analyst)

Okay, so-

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

I think, Chris, Chris, Chris, the only thing I would add to Nathan's commentary is, this page also not only shows the progress and the underlying positives around the Z3 as a product, it also shows the strategy of how we wanna scale and the capital efficiency of the way we've designed the manufacturing process. So, you know, we have the—you know, we've been doing this shift of where Gen 2.3 is being built is where the Z3 line will come in. So on 150,000 sq ft, you had 50,000 sq ft that wasn't producing. So therefore, as you put more volume through that, you get better absorption.

What you don't wanna do, right, there's people who have asked us, like, "Why don't you do all four lines at once?" Well, I think you got to watch, like, a lot of the lithium companies that are trying to scale up production and the amount of capital it's gonna take to do their factory because they are not cost-efficient at the lower volumes that like we are. So this, when you look at this, we're saying, "Let's get line one in place. Let's normalize, absorb, drive to profitability, then expand, so that you don't wind up with a lot of under-absorbed costs that you have to deal with, that causes you to drain down your capital as you're trying to grow your company.

Christopher Souther (Analyst)

Got it. Okay. Yeah, so that, you know, $18 million or so is what you're using for that kind of top of the chart as well. It's the other stuff is not included up there, it sounds like, right?

Nathan Kroeker (CFO)

I'm saying that's the area that we're focused on, which is driving down the labor and the materials costs.

Christopher Souther (Analyst)

Yeah. Okay, cool.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Everything except for Gen 2.3 is in the chart above.

Christopher Souther (Analyst)

Yeah. Okay. Got it.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Everything in there, including the launch costs and the under absorption. And that's why when you look at, when you go from 75 down to the end of the year, what we're saying is that 25 eventually goes away on the under absorption, because you're putting enough volume in to get your per unit cost down, because you're utilizing more of your factory.

Nathan Kroeker (CFO)

Yeah. It is-

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Yeah.

Nathan Kroeker (CFO)

We don't have to do anything other than increase production to achieve those savings.

Christopher Souther (Analyst)

Yeah, that's great. Thanks for, thanks for all the time there. I'll hop in the queue.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Thanks. Thanks, Chris.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chip Moore with Roth MKM. Your line is open. Chip, if your telephone's muted, please unmute.

Chip Moore (Analyst)

Can you hear me?

Operator (participant)

Yes, we can hear you.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

There we go.

Chip Moore (Analyst)

Hey, thanks for taking the question. Hey, Joe. Hey, Nathan. Wondering if you can expand a bit on the energy density improvements you've got coming along for Q4. Any changes on the automation side you need to take into account? And maybe you can help us put a bit of a finer point on that ramp in that quarter.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Yeah. So, Chip, great question around the automation. So we're not the way we've developed an envelope that we don't wanna change, so that you don't need to go back and change the line. So everything that we're talking about fits into the existing line. What you may need to do, depending on how this develops, is we may need to change on a couple of workstations, some end of arm tooling, but not long cycle time and not expensive to do, given the benefit that we're gonna get. And we've got a list of projects that get us to that higher performance.

We talked about, you know, when, when we did the 12/12 Strategy Call, you know, Francis Richey and, and Pranesh Rao walked through some of the work that we're doing to get there, and it's a mix of things as far as changing materials inside of the battery, which are already in progress, if you look at the picture I showed, and on test, while at the same time looking at how we containerize the batteries to get more output out of the out of the container itself or the cube itself. So we've got a list of projects that we have risk weighted, and we've come up with a number and feel good about where we stand today as far as the work that the teams have been doing, that we talked about on 12/12.

Chip Moore (Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful. Appreciate it. And for a follow-up, maybe on the cash side, right? I think you maybe you could talk about current cash positions. I think it sounds like you've, you've collected some money since year-end, and you've got line of sight on some more. Just, just help us there, and then I think you've got another $15 million or so to deploy in the new line. Just, just give us an update on the financing side.

Nathan Kroeker (CFO)

Yeah, I mean, I don't know that there's a whole lot more to add than what I talked about. We ended the year with $69.5 million. We've had some customer deposits come in. We've got customer milestone payments that are scheduled over the next couple of weeks and months, and we also anticipate additional customer deposits on some large orders that we're working on. Our focus really, you know, in addition to those customer payments and customer deposits, is really focusing on meeting the CPs and closing on the DOE loan. So that's where our focus is from a capital raise standpoint at this time.

Chip Moore (Analyst)

Perfect. And maybe one more related on the international side. You talked about, you know, developing some of those markets. Have you explored any strategic potential there, you know, licensing models or anything like that? Thanks, guys.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Yeah, Chip, we're not, we're not gonna comment specifically on that. Obviously, beyond what we said, you know, I think, you know, when we look at this, the product was designed, and this goes back a little bit to what we were explaining, on the conversation with Chris. You know, the way we designed this manufacturing model is you can put a line in, you don't need a complex factory, there's no clean rooms. You know, with the way we've designed the new product now, you don't even need a crane. So you can localize capacity as markets grow, and that's what we're talking about. And I think we're early innings here to say what that's gonna look like, but, you know, we'll keep everyone updated as it evolves.

Chip Moore (Analyst)

Understood. Appreciate it. Thanks.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Thanks, Chip.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Martin Malloy with Johnson Rice. Your line is open.

Martin Malloy (Analyst)

Good morning. Congratulations on all the progress and the cost reductions already achieved to date. I did wanna follow up on the financing and funding, and I appreciate what you said about the customer deposits. So will you need additional funding now, given the customer deposit outlook here this year, or until you get the DOE loans proceeds coming in?

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

So, Martin, I wouldn't go beyond what Nathan said on the call today. You know, we're working through a bunch of different things. You know, we're finalizing the agreement to monetize the tax credits. We're starting to see operations where receivables are coming in from customers, and we continue to drive to drive the orders book to bring deposits in. To bridge us to the line, I wouldn't say yes, and I wouldn't say no from where we are today. As it evolves, we'll give more details as we see them.

Martin Malloy (Analyst)

Okay. And then, just for a follow-up question, you mentioned that you've had two Z3 installations online, I think, since September. Any... Is there time enough that you've gotten any feedback from customers on how those are operating?

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

So Marty, what we said was they're under installation and commissioning right now. We never said they were up and running. There's a little confusion in that.

Martin Malloy (Analyst)

Oh, okay.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

That's why when you look at page, when we look at page five, you know, when you go halfway down, you know, they're, they're all... And again, there's a lot of things that we control, there are some things that we don't control on the customer side. The most important thing now is to get the units that have been shipped out in the field, up and running, so we get that field data.

Martin Malloy (Analyst)

Okay. Thank you very much.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Thanks, Marty.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Thomas Boyes with TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Thomas Boyes (Analyst)

I appreciate you taking the questions. Maybe just to follow on that point, you know, in your mind, for companies that are, you know, awaiting field data before they kind of move forward with booked orders, how much data do they require? I mean, obviously, it's different for every customer, but I'm just wondering, what do you think would be a sufficient amount of operating data for units in the field before it kind of moves more individuals off the sideline? Is it, is it months? Is it quarters? How should we think about that?

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

It depends. I mean, the answer is yes. It depends on who you're talking to, depends on the profile of the customer that you're talking to, Thomas. Like, if you think about what we said previously, you know, if you're dealing with an independent power producer or developer, they'll take risk sooner on new tech. If you're talking to a utility, it takes a little bit longer. We are in various stages with all different kinds of players that have laid out and done different things. We're not going to comment specifically on those conversations, but we have a roadmap of what we need to take people and convert them from opportunities into orders.

Thomas Boyes (Analyst)

Got it. Understood. And then maybe great to see the, you know, the first cube shipped to Italy. I know it's early innings, you know, with respect to kind of standing up the manufacturing base still, but you know, what are the kind of the international growth plans for Europe specifically? Are there other countries that you find interesting and that have market support mechanisms that make them attractive? And then, you know, of the 1.9 GWh late stage pipeline, is some of that international or is this more of a kind of ask for proposal bucket?

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

So I think we outlined in the presentation three areas that we're focused on. We can't, given the size of the company and evolution of the company, you can't go everywhere all at once because you'll stretch yourself too thin, and we don't want to do that. So I'd stick with what we said in the presentation as the three geographies that we're working with. What I would say is, we talked specifically about Italy because of the Terna auction and where we are. There are other countries in Italy, in Europe, excuse me, that we're talking to, but those are the three right now that we're focused on. You know, and on your second question, the majority of what we're talking about in the late stage is domestic, U.S.-based.

Thomas Boyes (Analyst)

Great. That's helpful. If I could sneak one more in, just on the monetization for the 2023 credits. You know, how are you seeing the kind of transferability market develop? I've, I've seen some reports where you're looking at, like, $0.90 on the dollar and your comp term was modest. I'm just kind of wondering if that's, you know, in shooting distance.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Yeah. Yeah, and that's what we said. There's a range that we're seeing, kind of, $0.90-$0.95. Obviously, you take a bigger discount if you're monetizing a smaller number of credits. You take a lesser discount if you have more credits. We've recorded these at $0.90. We believe that's where the market is for a company of our size, and we anticipate that discount tightening up over time as their volume of credits to sell increases.

Thomas Boyes (Analyst)

Great. I appreciate the call. I'll hop back in. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tom Curran with Seaport Research Partners. Your line is open.

Tom Curran (Analyst)

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I believe an earlier commercial version of your Z3 container featured the number I have is a total of 672 modules. Would you tell us how many modules are in the current long duration offering at Eos Energy of 695 kWh? And then, you know, what that module count should be, what the target or targeted range is when you get to 800k Wh?

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

672 kWh. So, so-

Tom Curran (Analyst)

672 kWh.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Well, yeah, the product, the product is the product. The cube has the same amount. When we talk about long duration, short duration, you know, you're talking about how you're utilizing that same product, and there's different levels of energy you can get in and out of a system, depending on how you discharge and at what power you discharge at. And that's true for any battery technology. So when you talk about any battery going from a 2-hour to a 4-hour to a 6-hour to an 8-hour, there's gonna be that impact on performance. It doesn't stay the same, and we're just being clear on how our technology performs at the different durations. As we move forward, the goal is to keep the module count in the cube the same.

Tom Curran (Analyst)

Got it. Makes sense.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

A lot of the energy density improvements we walked through, Francis and Pranesh walked through in December, are within the battery module itself.

Tom Curran (Analyst)

Right. And that was clear, and I assume that. I just wanted to make sure we weren't also missing another variable where the configuration or physical density of the actual modules was increasing as well within the container. But, very clear.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

That's the big [audio distortion].

Tom Curran (Analyst)

Uh.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

So to clarify, right, and that's a great point, right? The clarification is like, you know, you think about our battery module, it's in a box, right? And then you have the internals that then perform. What we're doing is the outer aspect ratio of that battery module box stays the same, the inner performs better. So like, if you go to that last page that we had on cost out, and you look at the left-hand side, that left-hand side, if you look closely, there's more active surface area inside the battery, and that's what's driving the improved performance.

Tom Curran (Analyst)

Crystal clear. Thank you. And then-

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Yes.

Tom Curran (Analyst)

When it comes to the scheduled deliveries that underpin your expected volume scale up over the second half of this year, are there any major external gating items that you're aware of and monitoring or, you know, for most of those scheduled deliveries, does it really just come down to staying on track for your own Z3 line ramp at this point?

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Yeah, I think it's a combination of staying on track with the line ramp and then coordinating with customers on customer deliveries. And so, yeah, I don't think there's any one single big gating item. I think it's just focusing on executing against that plan. And yeah, Tom, and that's why there's part of the reason why there's a range, Tom. So I think the 60-90 range is not all line risk that's in there, so that's why we gave the range that we gave.

Tom Curran (Analyst)

That, that's sort of what I was alluding to, is that when it comes to the swing factors within that range, they're not 100% internal. They're not all variables you would expect it to be out of control over.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Right. And when you look at the industry in general right now, and the risk you have around finalizing permits, getting the civil works done in a timely manner, we're being prudent in how we're forecasting that risk to make sure that we get within the range this year. I think that's very important.

Tom Curran (Analyst)

Yeah, yeah, as you should be. Perfectly fair. I appreciate all the transparency and thoughtful, detailed presentation.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Thanks. Thanks, Tom.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Joseph Osha with Guggenheim. Your line is open.

Joseph Osha (Analyst)

Hey, guys. Good morning. A couple of questions. First, wondering if you can give us a maybe a slightly more detailed walk through the sort of the milestones for the LPO draw, to the extent that you can, and then I've got one or two others.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Yeah, like we've said in the past, Joe, it's one of the ones that we're focused on is getting the first state-of-the-art line up and running and implemented. Beyond that, we really haven't commented on what some of the other ones are, but that's the one that we're focused on. That's the one that's likely to drive the timing.

Joseph Osha (Analyst)

But to be clear, you know, 'cause you've got the line, you know, it's coming up in Wisconsin, then you're gonna take it apart and, you know, move to Turtle Creek. You are implying that that line needs to be up and running at some level of scale? Is that what you're saying, or does it just need to be on the ground so they can look at it?

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

It needs to pass a performance test. So we constantly refer to SAT on that line. SAT is expected to occur in the second quarter. That's effectively what... There's, you know, the DOE has their own test, but it's effectively tied to SAT.

Joseph Osha (Analyst)

All right. So the, Remind me what that acronym stands for. I'm guessing the T is test, but what's the-

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

[audio distoriton]

Joseph Osha (Analyst)

Okay. Thanks. Second question, just, you know, looking at your chart on, on slide five there in the, in the upper right, and, and your scale at, at the end of, coming out of 2024. At that point, obviously, you'd hope that, that the, the margin, the cost continues to go down. But can we think about the levers as you get into 2025 and beyond being pretty much straightforward, just scale and, and cost absorption? 'Cause your, your design is, is gonna be nailed down by that point, and a lot of the kind of the R&D tweaks are, are done. So is it pretty much going from there, just straightforward fixed cost absorption?

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Look, Joe, my experience has always been, even if you have a 200-year-old product, you can continue to take cost out of it by improving the way you package it, by improving the way you manufacture it. So I think you'll continue to see an evolution of the product that we have. We think we have a product that we can continue to drive cost out beyond that. A large part of it is scale, but there's other things you can continue to do around software to improve performance, around packaging and how you containerize, and also continue to drive like we're doing right now. We'll learn more and continue to learn more about the battery and just improve performance by keeping it inside the same aspect ratio.

Joseph Osha (Analyst)

Yeah. Okay. And then that, that kind of leads me to my third question, following on some of the other earlier lines of, of questioning. You know, as, as your, I'll call it, functional density, improves, is there any kind of set of thermal limitations you run up against, like where you said, you know, "Hey, you don't have an HVAC," and that's, that's great. But, you know, I, I guess I'll just ask that simply: Are there any thermal limitations that, that you can run up against, or, or are those not relevant?

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

No. Look, I, Joe, what we've looked at, you know, the theoretical round-trip efficiency, when you back out thermodynamics and the inherent zinc plating, bromine absorption that happens with the chemical reaction in the battery, the theoretical round-trip efficiency that you can achieve is the high 80s-low 90s. There's a lot of things that you need to go in there to be able to do that, but when you look at how the battery performs in the temperature range that we have, we're not gonna exceed that temperature range that we have right now. I mean, you're talking about going down to -20, up to +65 degrees Celsius. That's a pretty wide range, and we don't see ourselves exceeding that as you continue to work on the product.

Joseph Osha (Analyst)

Okay, thank you.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Great. Thanks, Joe. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to CEO, Joe Mastrangelo, for any closing remarks.

Joe Mastrangelo (CEO)

Thanks. Thanks, everyone, for listening. We'll keep everyone updated here on as we progress through. I know there's a lot of important topics that everyone wants to hear about and, and learn about as we move forward. The most important thing here for us right now, you know, when, when you think about this, is getting the SAT successfully completed, then on to SAT, continuing to scale up production, and continuing to work that pipeline from opportunity into order closure. And we'll keep everyone updated as we make progress on that. But thanks, everyone, for the time today.

Operator (participant)

Thank you for your participation. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect.