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EI

Erasca, Inc. (ERAS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 net loss per share improved to $(0.11) from $(0.20) in Q4 2023, with quarterly net loss of $32.2M; cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $440.5M at year-end, and runway guidance was extended to H2 2027 .
  • Pipeline momentum: Phase 3 SEACRAFT-2 in NRASm melanoma is progressing well with FDA Fast Track; Stage 1 randomized data now expected in H2 2025; INDs for ERAS-0015 and ERAS-4001 planned for mid-Q2 and Q2 2025, respectively .
  • Guidance shifts vs prior quarter: cash runway raised (H1 → H2 2027); SEACRAFT-2 timing refined (2025 → H2 2025); ERAS-4001 IND timing pushed (Q1 → Q2 2025) .
  • Stock-reaction catalysts ahead: SEACRAFT-2 Stage 1 results (H2 2025) and first IND submissions for pan-RAS/pan-KRAS programs in Q2 2025, with early Phase 1 monotherapy data targeted for 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Extended cash runway into H2 2027, supported by $251M equity financings in 2024; year-end cash and marketable securities of $440.5M provide funding into late 2027 .
  • SEACRAFT-2 registrational trial advancing with Fast Track in NRASm melanoma; management highlighted “potential to be first-to-market in this area of high unmet need” .
  • RAS-targeting franchise execution: INDs for ERAS-0015 (pan-RAS molecular glue) and ERAS-4001 (pan-KRAS inhibitor) expected in Q2 2025; management emphasized best-in-class potential and broad patient need across KRAS-altered tumors .

Quoted management remarks:

  • “We have an exciting year ahead focused on shutting down RAS… We continue to be well capitalized and capital efficient and have revised our cash runway guidance from the first half of 2027 to the second half of 2027.” .
  • “The SEACRAFT-2 trial is progressing well… this combination has the potential to be first-to-market in this area of high unmet need with no approved targeted therapies.” .

What Went Wrong

  • Sequential cash decline in Q4 (from $463.3M at Q3 to $440.5M at Q4) and reduced working capital (from $300.1M at Q3 to $277.4M at Q4) reflecting ongoing operating spend and IPR&D charges earlier in the year .
  • Guidance timing refined later: SEACRAFT-2 Stage 1 now explicitly H2 2025 (vs “2025”), ERAS-4001 IND shifted from Q1 2025 to Q2 2025—minor timing push that investors should monitor .
  • Continued absence of revenue with net loss increasing for the full year 2024 ($161.7M vs $125.0M in 2023), driven by higher R&D including $22.5M in-process R&D for licensing the RAS franchise .

Financial Results

P&L and EPS (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(29.7) $(63.2) $(31.2) $(32.2)
Net Loss per Share (Basic & Diluted) ($)$(0.20) $(0.29) $(0.11) $(0.11)
Weighted Avg. Shares (Millions)150.7 217.8 282.4 282.8
Interest Income ($USD Millions)$4.24 $5.04 $5.87 $5.28

Operating Expenses (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
R&D ($USD Millions)$24.8 $33.0 $27.6 $26.1
In-Process R&D ($USD Millions)— $22.5 — —
G&A ($USD Millions)$9.1 $12.3 $9.6 $9.6
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$33.9 $67.8 $37.2 $35.7

Balance Sheet (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Cash & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)$322.0 $460.2 $463.3 $440.5
Working Capital ($USD Millions)$294.5 $393.1 $300.1 $277.4
Total Assets ($USD Millions)$395.3 $525.7 $528.9 $502.5
Stockholders’ Equity ($USD Millions)$316.7 $451.1 $450.0 $423.5
Accumulated Deficit ($USD Millions)$(606.0) $(704.2) $(735.4) $(767.7)

Notes:

  • ERAS is a clinical-stage company and did not report product revenue in these periods .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash RunwayCorporateFund operations into H1 2027 Fund operations into H2 2027 Raised runway (extended)
SEACRAFT-2 Stage 1 DataClinicalRandomized dose optimization data expected in 2025 Randomized dose optimization data expected in H2 2025 Timing refined (later half)
ERAS-4001 IND (pan-KRAS)R&DIND filing expected in Q1 2025 IND filing expected in Q2 2025 Pushed
ERAS-0015 IND (pan-RAS molecular glue)R&DIND filing expected in H1 2025 IND filing expected in mid-Q2 2025 Narrowed timing window

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was not available in our document catalog and public sources; analysis below reflects themes tracked across ERAS Q2/Q3 updates and the Q4 press release [ListDocuments for transcripts returned none; Q4 press release and 8-K: 9, 10; prior quarters: 18, 13, 14, 19].

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024 and Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
SEACRAFT-2 progress & regulatory alignmentInitiated Phase 3; alignment with US/EU; Stage 1 data “2025” Progressing well; Stage 1 data H2 2025; Fast Track in NRASm melanoma reiterated Consistent progress; timeline specificity increased
SEACRAFT-1 signal in melanomaInitial Phase 1b combo data expected Q4 2024 Positive preliminary data presented; strengthens conviction in SEACRAFT-2 Positive readthrough to Phase 3
RAS-targeting franchise (ERAS-0015/ERAS-4001)In-licensed; planned INDs Q1/QH1 2025; best-in-class potential asserted INDs mid-Q2 and Q2 2025; continued best-in-class narrative; GLP tox progression Execution steady; minor timing push for ERAS-4001
Capital & runway$460–463M cash; runway into H1 2027 $440.5M cash; runway extended to H2 2027 Runway extended; cash modestly lower sequentially
Leadership & organizationNo major changes disclosed in Q2 New VP Medical Affairs, VP Clinical Development, Senior Chemistry Advisor Team strengthening

Management Commentary

  • “The high prevalence of KRAS alterations and the significant unmet need among these patients offer substantial opportunities for both candidates… namely colorectal, lung, pancreatic, and other solid tumor cancers.” — Jonathan E. Lim, M.D., Chairman & CEO .
  • “We expect Stage 1 randomized data from SEACRAFT-2 in patients with NRASm melanoma [in H2 2025]… we have revised our cash runway guidance… to the second half of 2027.” — Jonathan E. Lim, M.D. .
  • “Promising initial Phase 1b data for naporafenib plus trametinib… support the rationale for pursuing an NRASm melanoma tissue-specific indication.” — Company statement .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was found; ERAS’ March 20, 2025 communication consisted of an 8-K and press release detailing business updates and financial results .
  • As a result, Q&A themes and guidance clarifications are not available for this quarter from primary sources.

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus data was unavailable at time of request due to provider limitations; consequently, this recap anchors estimate comparisons to company-reported actuals and notes the unavailability of SPGI consensus for Q4 2024 and prior quarters.
  • Third-party aggregation indicates Q4 2024 EPS consensus of $(0.12) vs actual $(0.11), a beat of $0.01; revenue consensus not applicable given no reported product revenue .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Cash runway extended to H2 2027 despite sequential cash decline; financing and capital efficiency provide multi-year visibility through key catalysts .
  • SEACRAFT-2 Stage 1 randomized data in NRASm melanoma is the pivotal 2025 event; Fast Track could aid review but does not guarantee approval—trial outcomes will likely drive stock direction .
  • RAS franchise INDs in Q2 2025 add optionality; initial monotherapy data targeted for 2026 offers pipeline breadth beyond naporafenib .
  • Watch timing shifts: ERAS-4001 IND moved to Q2 2025; SEACRAFT-2 readout window now H2—manage expectations around interim data flow .
  • Operating discipline matters: quarterly R&D/G&A moderated from Q2’s peak (with IPR&D), aiding per-share loss improvement; interest income remains a non-trivial offset .
  • Without revenue, valuation hinges on clinical execution and regulatory outcomes; consider scenario-weighted probabilities for SEACRAFT-2 and early ERAS-0015/ERAS-4001 safety/PK signals .