Sign in
ET

Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. (ESPR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $65.0M, down 53% YoY due to a one-time DSE milestone in Q1’24; excluding that, revenue grew 63% YoY. Revenue beat S&P Global consensus ($54.2M*) while EPS of -$0.21 missed consensus (-$0.15*) .
  • U.S. net product revenue rose 41% YoY to $34.9M; collaboration revenue was $30.1M, down 73% YoY due to the prior-year milestone but up 97% YoY ex-milestone .
  • Access improved materially (30+ plans eased utilization criteria), ACC/AHA multi-society guidelines granted Level 1a recommendations for bempedoic acid in ACS, and early Q2 Rx volume was tracking ~8% above Q1, supporting momentum into Q2 .
  • Management reiterated FY25 OpEx guidance ($215–$235M) and highlighted non-recurring COGS adjustments in Q1 that are not expected to recur in Q2; catalysts include pediatric FH Phase 3 initiation (2025), Otsuka Japan approval/pricing expected H2 2025, and triple combo product targeting commercialization in 2027 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • U.S. net product revenue grew 41% YoY to $34.9M; total revenue grew 63% YoY excluding last year’s settlement milestone, reflecting stronger U.S. demand and partner royalties .
  • Access tailwinds: more than 30 plans improved formulary positions (PA removals, electronic step edits, new additions); bempedoic acid earned Level 1a recommendations in 2025 ACC/AHA guideline for ACS .
  • Management sees rising Rx momentum: “Early Q2 trends are encouraging with prescription volume currently tracking approximately 8% higher than Q1,” and reinforced field support by expanding reimbursement specialists to 15 aligned with 15 sales regions .

What Went Wrong

  • Headline revenue fell 53% YoY to $65.0M due to the Q1’24 DSE settlement milestone; collaboration revenue declined 73% YoY, masking underlying growth ex-milestone (+97%) .
  • Net loss widened to -$40.5M with EPS -$0.21; COGS included cost adjustments that inflated Q1 costs (not expected to recur in Q2), pressuring gross margin .
  • Seasonal headwinds and IRA-related Medicare Part D changes weighed on Q1 Rx trends; management and payers cited consumer confusion around out-of-pocket costs and coverage gap dynamics .

Financial Results

Quarterly Results vs Prior Periods

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$51.6 $69.113 $64.995
U.S. Net Product Revenue ($USD Millions)$31.1 $31.561 $34.913
Collaboration Revenue ($USD Millions)$20.5 $37.552 $30.082
Net (Loss) Income ($USD Millions)$(29.5) $(21.318) $(40.455)
Basic/Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.15) $(0.11) $(0.21)
Cost of Goods Sold ($USD Millions)—$25.631 $31.538
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)—$(4.420) $(22.096)
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions, period-end)$144.7 (Sep 30, 2024) $144.761 $114.633
Net Income Margin % (calc.)-57.1% -30.8% -62.2%

Notes: Net income margin calculated as net (loss) income ÷ total revenue using reported figures.

Segment Breakdown

SegmentQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
U.S. Net Product Revenue ($USD Millions)$31.1 $31.561 $34.913
Collaboration Revenue ($USD Millions)$20.5 $37.552 $30.082

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
TRPE Growth (Q/Q)+12% +12% +2%
New-to-Brand Rx Growth (Q/Q)+18% +8% —
Active Prescribers (#)~24,000 >25,000 —
Medicare Coverage (% lives)~65% ——
DSE Royalty Revenue ($USD Millions)$8.9 $9.7 $10.5
Early Q2 Rx Trend vs Q1——~+8%

Actual vs S&P Global Consensus (Q1 2025)

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$65.0 $54.188*+$10.8M / +19.9%*
Primary EPS ($USD)$(0.21) $(0.15)*—$0.06 miss*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(22.07) $(15.90)*—$6.17*

Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ). Coverage: Revenue estimates (6), EPS estimate (1), EBITDA estimate (S&P*).

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Operating Expenses (OpEx)FY 2025$215–$235M; includes ~$15M stock comp $215–$235M; includes ~$15M stock comp Maintained
Gross Margin / COGS CommentaryQ2 2025—Q1 COGS had cost adjustments; not expected to recur in Q2 Qualitative improvement expected
Triple Combo (BA+EZE+Statin)U.S. Launch TargetOn track 2027 Reiterated 2027 Maintained
Pediatric FH (HeFH/HoFH)2025—FDA alignment; Phase 3 initiation planned in 2025 New
Japan (Otsuka)H2 2025Approval/NHI pricing expected H2 2025 Reiterated H2 2025 Maintained
Canada (NDS)Q4 2025Expected approval Q4 2025 Reiterated Q4 2025 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Trend
Access & ReimbursementUM updates covering 165M lives; improved Medicare/commercial access DoD formulary preferred; 173M covered lives; prescriber base >25K 30+ plans eased PA/step edits; expanded reimbursement team to 15 Improving
Medicare Part D/IRA Dynamics—Coverage gap pressure noted Seasonal headwinds and IRA confusion; co-pays declining by March Headwind easing
International Growth (DSE/Otsuka)DSE royalties $8.9M; Taiwan approval; Otsuka JNDA planned DSE royalties $9.7M; Otsuka JNDA submitted; Australia/NZ CSL deal DSE royalties $10.5M; Japan on track H2 2025; Canada/Israel filings Improving
Triple Combination StrategyDiscussed; polypill rationale Announced U.S. development; 2027 target Reiterated 2027; 60–70% LDL-C lowering; convenience of 1 pill Advancing
Gross Margin / COGS—COGS stable; DSE tablet mix weighs Q1 COGS inflated by cost adjustments; not expected in Q2 Normalizing
BD/In-licensing—Active landscape review; leverage commercial infra Progressing; not predicated on Otsuka milestones Ongoing
ACC/AHA Guideline Inclusion——Level 1a recommendations for ACS; supports detail and uptake Positive
Pediatric FH Path——FDA alignment; Phase 3 initiation 2025; patent extension potential New tailwind

Management Commentary

  • “Total revenue for the first quarter 2025 grew 63% year-over-year to $65 million after adjusting for a one-time milestone… U.S. net product revenue grew 41% year-over-year to $34.9 million.”
  • “Early Q2 trends are encouraging with prescription volume currently tracking approximately 8% higher than Q1.”
  • “More than 30 plans… removed prior authorizations, implemented electronic step edits and included new formulary additions.”
  • On triple combo: “We’ve seen LDL lowering in excess of 60%, actually, in some cases, up to 70%… it’s just 1 pill that a patient has to take.”
  • On gross margin trajectory: “We did have some cost adjustments in COGS… we do not expect those to recur again in Q2… margins improve as tech transfer progresses.”

Q&A Highlights

  • BD/in-licensing: Management is pursuing deals not dependent on Otsuka milestones; focus is on assets synergistic with commercial infrastructure .
  • Triple combination positioning: Emphasis on convenience (one pill) and high LDL-C efficacy (60–70%); no clinical outcomes trial required for approval; bioequivalence/stability pathway anticipated .
  • Sales force and reimbursement support: ~155 reps deemed “right-sized”; reimbursement specialists expanded to 15 to reduce PA barriers and improve pull-through .
  • Medicare/IRA impacts: Q1 worse than prior years due to IRA changes and consumer confusion; improving trends by March as co-pays decline .
  • Gross margin: Q1 COGS inflated by adjustments; non-recurring; tech transfer to DSE expected to improve margins over time .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $65.0M vs $54.2M* (beat); EPS -$0.21 vs -$0.15* (miss); EBITDA -$22.1M vs -$15.9M* (miss). EPS coverage was limited (1 estimate), revenue estimates had broader coverage (6), implying modest analyst participation in the quarter .
  • Forward quarterly consensus (snapshot): Q3 2025 revenue $77.2M* and EPS -$0.079*, Q4 2025 revenue $161.2M* and EPS $0.262*, indicating expectations for stronger H2 driven by milestones and partner dynamics*.

Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ).

Q1 2025 Actual vs Consensus Table

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$65.0 $54.188*+$10.8M / +19.9%*
Primary EPS ($USD)$(0.21) $(0.15)*—$0.06 miss*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(22.07) $(15.90)*—$6.17*

Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ). Coverage: Revenue estimates (6), EPS estimate (1), EBITDA estimate (S&P*).

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Underlying growth strong: ex-milestone, total revenue +63% YoY; U.S. net product revenue +41% YoY, supported by broadened access and ACC/AHA guideline inclusion .
  • Near-term setup: Q1 COGS included non-recurring adjustments; management expects margin normalization in Q2 and continued Rx momentum (early Q2 ~+8% vs Q1) .
  • H2 inflection drivers: Otsuka Japan approval/pricing targeted H2 2025, Canada approvals expected Q4 2025; consensus implies outsized Q4, likely milestone-related* .
  • Strategic portfolio expansion: Pediatric FH Phase 3 initiation (2025) potentially extends patent life; triple combo on 2027 track offers high LDL-C efficacy and adherence advantages .
  • International royalty growth: DSE royalties rose to $10.5M in Q1 (+8% Q/Q), demonstrating durable ex-U.S. adoption .
  • Access tailwinds: 30+ plans eased PA/step edits; expanded reimbursement support should improve pull-through and reduce friction for prescribers .
  • Trading implications: Favorable revenue beat vs consensus and improving access/guideline posture are positives; EPS miss reflects Q1 seasonality/COGS adjustments. Watch for Q2 margin normalization, BD updates, and regulatory milestones as catalysts .
Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ).