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Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. (ESPR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 total revenue grew 69% year-over-year to $87.3M, driven by U.S. net product revenue of $40.7M (+31% y/y) and stronger collaboration revenue; revenue beat Wall Street consensus by ~$10.1M while EPS missed by ~$0.08. Reasons: higher collaboration royalties and supply sales lifted revenue, but elevated COGS, interest expense, and one-time reimbursement investments weighed on EPS . Revenue consensus $77.2M*, EPS consensus -$0.079* vs actual -$0.16; bold beat/miss noted below (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • Management reiterated FY25 operating expenses of $215–$235M and expects sustainable profitability beginning in Q1 2026; milestones from Japan are set to be triggered upon final pricing approval following a favorable preliminary pricing decision .
  • Strategic catalysts: ESC/EAS 2025 guidelines granted bempedoic acid Class I, Level A; U.S. guideline inclusion anticipated in Q1 2026. ANDA settlements—including Dr. Reddy’s—support no U.S. generics for Nexletol/Nexlizet prior to April 2040, extending the commercial runway .
  • Near-term stock narrative: Japan launch timing (final pricing approval expected imminently), continued EU royalty momentum (DSE royalties +21% q/q to $16.4M), and progress on manufacturing tech transfer expected to drive margin improvement through 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong top-line and mix: total revenue +69% y/y to $87.3M; collaboration revenue +128% y/y to $46.7M on higher royalties and partner product sales .
  • EU and Japan catalysts: ESC/EAS Class I, Level A guideline inclusion; DSE royalties +21% q/q to $16.4M; Otsuka received favorable preliminary pricing in Japan, triggering significant milestones upon final pricing . Quote: “We are over the moon…by the excitement…related to the guidelines” (DSE CEO feedback relayed by management) .
  • Access and demand KPIs: total retail prescription equivalents +9% q/q; prescriber base >30,000; Medicare approval rate ~87% (copay ~$29), commercial ~86% (copay ~$36), reflecting improved payer dynamics .

What Went Wrong

  • Profitability and EPS: net loss widened to -$31.3M; diluted EPS -$0.16, reflecting higher cost of goods sold ($41.3M) due to low-margin tablet sales to partners, increased SG&A (legal/media), and interest expense ($22.1M) .
  • Gross margin volatility: gross margin dipped to ~52.7% vs ~75.0% in Q2 due to mix and low-margin partner sales; margins expected to improve as tech transfer completes and ramps in 2026 .
  • U.S. net product revenue was roughly flat sequentially despite +9% scripts, as one-time reimbursement investments and accounting adjustments for enhanced Medicare access impacted realized revenue per script in Q3 (already paying off with ~30% gross sales increase early Q4) .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L (USD Millions unless noted)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenues$65.0 $82.4 $87.3
Net (Loss)($40.5) ($4.8) ($31.3)
Diluted EPS ($)($0.21) ($0.02) ($0.16)
Cost of Goods Sold$31.5 $20.6 $41.3
Loss/Income from Operations($22.1) $15.0 ($10.0)
Gross Profit (calc.)$33.5 $61.8 $46.0
Gross Margin % (calc.)51.5% 75.0% 52.7%

Notes: Gross Profit and Gross Margin % are calculated from reported revenue and COGS with cited sources above.

Revenue Composition

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
U.S. Net Product Revenue$34.9 $40.3 $40.7
Collaboration Revenue$30.1 $42.1 $46.7
DSE Royalty Revenuen/a$13.6 $16.4

KPIs and Market Access

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Retail Rx Equivalents (q/q)+2% (vs Q4’24) +10% +9%
Prescriber Base (HCPs)n/a>28,000 >30,000
Coverage – Commercial Livesn/an/a>90%
Coverage – Medicare Livesn/an/a>80%
Approval Rate – Medicaren/a>80% targeted prescribers ~87%
Approval Rate – Commercialn/a>80% targeted prescribers ~86%
Copay (30-day) – Medicare~$64 baseline (Q1) n/a~$29
Copay (30-day) – Commercial~$55 baseline (Q1) n/a~$36

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Operating Expenses (OpEx)FY 2025$215–$235M incl. ~$15M stock comp $215–$235M incl. ~$15M stock comp Maintained
Sustainable ProfitabilityQ1 2026Expect sustainable profitability beginning Q1 2026 Expect sustainable profitability beginning Q1 2026 Maintained
Otsuka Milestones (Japan)H2 2025Up to $120M upon regulatory approval and pricing Favorable preliminary pricing; “significant milestone payments” upon final pricing approval Clarified; positive
Manufacturing Tech Transfer (DSE)2025–2026Processes advanced; working capital benefits in 2025 Ramp early 2026; margins to improve through 2026 Timeline reaffirmed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Payer coverage & approvalsExpanded coverage; >80% targeted prescriber approvals >90% commercial, >80% Medicare coverage; 87% Medicare and 86% commercial approval; lower copays Improving
Direct-to-consumer (DTC) marketingLipid Lurkers campaign; planned connected TV Branded commercials on Hulu/Disney+; ~18M impressions targeted; >6M full-length views mid-Oct Scaling
ESC/EAS guideline inclusionExpected inclusion at ESC Class I, Level A achieved; strong EU physician reception Positive impact
Japan launch/pricingApproval/pricing expected H2’25; milestones up to $120M Favorable preliminary pricing; final pricing approval imminent; milestone triggers Imminent catalyst
Tech transfer & gross marginsWorking capital benefits in 2025; margin uplift post-transfer Margins to improve over 2026; low-margin partner sales currently depress GM Improvement ahead
Regulatory/legal (ANDA)Three ANDA settlements not to market prior to 2040 Dr. Reddy’s settlement; extended runway to April 2040 Strengthened IP
R&D (PSC ACLY inhibitor)Introduced PSC program; IND-enabling planned ESP-2001 nominated; IND-enabling underway; 2026 first-in-human target Advancing
340B dynamicsn/a“Minuscule” impact; not a factor Neutral

Management Commentary

  • CEO framing: “Our third quarter performance reflects consistently strong execution…We delivered robust year-over-year revenue growth…The recent settlement…supports our ability to build and maintain our market leadership for many years to come.” .
  • On guidelines: “The inclusion of bempedoic acid as a Class I, Level A recommendation in the 2025 ESC/EAS guidelines marks a pivotal moment…We believe this recognition will be reflected similarly in the upcoming U.S. guidelines expected in the first quarter of 2026.” .
  • CFO on margins and transfer: “We have low-margin tablet sales to our partners…moving that manufacturing off our books…Going forward, I would expect the gross margins to get better over the course of 2026” .
  • CEO on one-time reimbursement investments: “We made some investments with two of our larger Medicare plans to get more preferred access…we introduced a new e‑voucher…we are already seeing our gross sales increase by about 30% [early Q4].” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Gross margins: Current mix reflects low-margin partner tablet sales; margins expected to improve as tech transfer completes and ramps through 2026 .
  • Profitability: Sustainable profitability in Q1 2026 does not include milestones; Q3 expense increases were one-time/non-recurring .
  • U.S. reimbursements: Scripts +9% q/q but U.S. revenue flat due to one-time access investments and accounting adjustments; early Q4 gross sales +~30% on a like-for-like basis .
  • EU guideline impact: DSE seeing strong physician excitement and early positive inflections post-ESC/EAS inclusion; viewed as foundational therapy .
  • Japan timing: Final pricing expected within “two to three weeks,” launching promptly thereafter; milestone triggers upon final pricing approval .
  • 340B: “Minuscule” portion of business; non-impact on outlook .
  • Prescriber mix: ~60% primary care, ~40% cardiology; primary prevention and statin intolerance messaging resonates .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 revenue: $87.309M actual vs $77.202M consensus* — bold beat (by ~$10.1M). Revenue drivers included higher partner royalties and supply sales .
  • Q3 2025 EPS: -$0.16 actual vs -$0.079 consensus* — bold miss (by ~$0.081). EPS pressure driven by higher COGS tied to partner tablet sales, increased SG&A (legal/media), and interest expense .
  • Implications: Consensus may lift revenue trajectory given EU royalties and Japan milestones, while trimming near-term EPS on mix and investment timing until tech transfer margin benefits accrue in 2026.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Q3 2025 Actuals vs Consensus

MetricQ3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD)$87,309,000 $77,202,070*
Primary EPS ($)($0.16) ($0.0786)*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue beat but EPS miss reflects strategic investments and mix; watch for margin lift as manufacturing tech transfer completes and ramps through 2026 .
  • EU guideline inclusion and anticipated U.S. guideline update in Q1 2026 support durable demand expansion across statin-intolerant and primary prevention segments .
  • Japan launch is an imminent catalyst; favorable preliminary pricing suggests strong milestone economics and future royalty stream post-launch .
  • IP runway extended: settlements—incl. Dr. Reddy’s—indicate no U.S. generics before April 2040, materially de-risking long-term commercialization .
  • Access tailwinds: >90% commercial and >80% Medicare coverage; improved approval rates and lower copays are translating into sustained Rx growth .
  • Collaboration royalties are a meaningful lever (DSE royalties +21% q/q); continued geographic expansion and partner launches drive non-U.S. growth .
  • Near-term trading focus: monitor final Japan pricing approval/milestones, early Q4 gross sales trajectory post access investments, and any commentary on U.S. guideline timing and tech transfer milestones .
Sources cited inline.