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Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. (ESPR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 total revenue was $69.1M, up 114% year over year, with U.S. net product revenue of $31.6M (+52% YoY); retail prescription equivalents grew 12% sequentially and 45% YoY, reflecting durable demand and expanded prescriber base to >25,000 HCPs .
  • Collaboration revenue rose to $37.6M (+227% YoY), aided by stronger European sales and a one-time Otsuka milestone; DSE royalty revenue increased 9% sequentially to $9.7M, evidencing international momentum .
  • Non-GAAP and margin commentary: gross-to-net headwinds in Q4 tied to Medicare coverage gap are expected to smooth in 2025 with Part D redesign, improving the translation of TRPE growth to revenue growth; SG&A fell 19% YoY on lapping Q4 2023 legal costs .
  • 2025 operating expense guidance set at $215–$235M (incl. ~$15M stock comp); management emphasized path to operating profitability and announced U.S. development of triple combinations (bempedoic acid + ezetimibe + atorvastatin/rosuvastatin) targeting >60% LDL-C lowering, a potential competitive catalyst .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong top-line acceleration: Q4 revenue +114% YoY to $69.1M and U.S. net product revenue +52% YoY to $31.6M, driven by broader access and adoption; “double-digit sequential quarterly growth in TRPEs” sustained since expanded labels .
  • International expansion: DSE royalty revenue rose 9% sequentially to $9.7M; Otsuka filed the Japan NDA, with approval and NHI pricing expected in H2 2025, broadening global reach .
  • Strategic financing improved flexibility: OMERS royalty monetization ($304.7M) enabled early payoff of the Oberland facility; new $150M term loan and $100M 2030 converts refinanced ~80% of 2025 notes, extending maturities and supporting growth investments .

Management quotes:

  • CEO: “Three strategic pillars for building a blockbuster company: continued revenue growth, operating profitability, and portfolio expansion/pipeline advancement” .
  • CFO: “Two transformational financial transactions… reshaped our capital structure, providing enhanced operational and financial flexibility” .

What Went Wrong

  • Profitability still negative: Q4 net loss of $21.3M (EPS -$0.11) despite material YoY improvement; interest expense remains elevated, largely due to accounting for OMERS and debt structure .
  • Gross-to-net headwinds: Q4 revenue conversion lagged TRPE growth amid Medicare coverage gap dynamics; management expects normalization in 2025, but near-term translation uncertainty persists .
  • Heavy dependence on collaboration revenue and one-time items: Q4 collaboration revenue includes a milestone from Otsuka, adding variability; COGS increased vs 2023 Q4 (impacting gross profit) while margin benefits depend on tech transfer completion .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$73.834 $51.632 $69.113
U.S. Net Product Revenue ($USD Millions)$28.302 $31.106 $31.561
Collaboration Revenue ($USD Millions)$45.532 $20.526 $37.552
Cost of Goods Sold ($USD Millions)$15.609 $17.286 $25.631
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$58.225 $34.346 $43.482
Research & Development ($USD Millions)$11.461 $10.397 $10.977
SG&A ($USD Millions)$44.185 $39.975 $36.925
Operating Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$2.579 $(16.026) $(4.420)
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(61.925) $(29.524) $(21.318)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.33) $(0.15) $(0.11)
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$189.304 $144.717 $144.761

YoY comparison (Q4):

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$32.250 $69.113
U.S. Net Product Revenue ($USD Millions)$20.760 $31.561
Collaboration Revenue ($USD Millions)$11.490 $37.552
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(56.344) $(21.318)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.50) $(0.11)

Segment breakdown:

SegmentQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Product Sales, net ($USD Millions)$28.302 $31.106 $31.561
Collaboration Revenue ($USD Millions)$45.532 $20.526 $37.552

KPIs:

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
TRPE Growth (Q/Q)+14% +12% +12%
TRPE Growth (Y/Y)——+45%
New-to-brand Rx Growth (Q/Q)—+18% +8%
Prescriber Base (HCPs)>21,000 >23,500 >25,000
Payer Coverage Lives—>165M lives >173M lives
DSE Royalty Revenue ($USD Millions)—$8.9 $9.7

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)FY 2025Not previously provided$215–$235 (incl. ~$15 non-cash stock comp) New
Gross-to-Net Seasonality (qualitative)FY 2025N/AExpect removal of Medicare coverage gap to smooth conversion of TRPE → revenue Qualitative improvement

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Triple combination (BA+EZE+statin)Not disclosedNot disclosed publiclyInitiated U.S. development; CVOT not required; path details to come in fall; potential >60% LDL-C lowering Emerging positive catalyst
Payer access & Medicare Part DPreferred commercial 92%+; Medicare >50% >165M lives aligned to new labels >173M lives; DoD formulary addition; Part D redesign to smooth gross-to-net Improving access
International expansionOMERS royalty monetization; EC label expansion; Canada/Aus/Israel submissions DSE royalties +19% seq to $8.9M; Japan NDA imminent DSE royalties +9% seq to $9.7M; Japan NDA filed; Aus/NZ CSL Seqirus deal; Canada NDSs filed Momentum building
Prescriber awareness/adoption21k HCPs; digital reach expansion >23.5k HCPs; strong TRPE, NBR growth >25k HCPs; unaided awareness improving; consumer activation strategy Broadening
COGS/margin structureCOGS up with volume; tech transfer to improve COGS drivers include gross-to-net, DSE tablet mix Per-tablet price steady; margins to benefit as low-margin tablet sales removed post tech transfer Medium-term improvement
Financing/Interest expenseOMERS deal + 10-Q impact Debt extinguishment loss Term loan + 2030 converts; interest expense largely non-cash from OMERS accounting; run-rate similar to Q4 Balance sheet de-risked
Regulatory milestonesEC label expansion; Canada/Aus/Israel submissions Japan NDA expected 2024 Japan NDA filed; H2 2025 approval/pricing expected Clearer path
R&D pipeline (ACLYi)Next-gen inhibitors exploration AHA data presentations R&D Day April 24 to announce lead indication/candidate Advancing

Management Commentary

  • CEO (Sheldon Koenig): “Three strategic pillars for building a blockbuster company: continued revenue growth, operating profitability, and portfolio expansion and pipeline advancement” .
  • CFO (Ben Halladay): “Two transformational financial transactions… reshaped our capital structure, providing… enhanced operational and financial flexibility” .
  • Commercial lead (Eric Warren): “NEXLETOL and NEXLIZET… have outcome benefit from primary and secondary prevention… studied in partial and complete statin-intolerant patients—the drivers of ‘yes’ from prescribers” .
  • Triple combo positioning: “Published literature suggest triple combination products can lower LDL-cholesterol in excess of 60%… has potential to rival both existing and emerging injectable and oral therapies” .
  • Medicare Part D redesign: “You’ll see that smooth out of the gross-to-net… more of a 1:1 translation of RPE growth to revenue growth” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Triple combo regulatory path and IP: FDA path does not require CVOT or heavy clinical lift; details to be shared in fall; viewed as key lifecycle management to potentially extend patent coverage .
  • Gross-to-net normalization: Expect removal of coverage gap in 2025 to align TRPE growth with revenue growth; strongest Q4 headwind in 2024 should not repeat .
  • COGS/margin: Per-tablet pricing consistent; margin expansion expected post tech transfer as low-margin DSE tablet sales come off books; longer-term supplier validation underway .
  • Prescriber awareness: Unaided awareness improving; aided ~95%; consumer activation initiatives driving demand where patients request therapy .
  • In-licensing/M&A: Actively evaluating late-stage/approved cardiometabolic assets to leverage commercial infrastructure; progress ongoing .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 and prior quarters was unavailable at time of analysis due to S&P Global daily request limit; comparisons to estimates are therefore omitted. Values would ordinarily be retrieved from S&P Global; consensus was unavailable at time of request.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Sequential demand and access tailwinds: TRPE +12% Q/Q, prescribers >25k, >173M lives covered; Medicare Part D redesign should improve revenue conversion in 2025—supporting near-term trading strength on improved visibility .
  • International monetization with continued momentum: Despite royalty sale to OMERS, DSE sales remain strong (royalty revenue +9% seq); Japan approval in H2 2025 could be a new multi-year growth leg via partner royalties/milestones .
  • Pipeline/combo catalyst: U.S. triple combination program aims at >60% LDL-C lowering; potential differentiation vs injectables and adherence benefits may support medium-term thesis re-rating on clarity of regulatory path and timelines .
  • Path to operating profitability: SG&A down YoY; management reiterated 2025 OpEx guidance ($215–$235M) and expects improved gross-to-net; watch execution on tech transfer and in-licensing to accelerate profitability .
  • Financing de-risks near-term maturities: Refinancing extends duration to 2030; interest expense largely non-cash linked to OMERS accounting; reduces overhang from 2025 notes—constructive for equity sentiment .
  • Risk checks: Collaboration revenue variability (milestones), seasonality in Q1, margin trajectory tied to product mix and tech transfer; monitor consumer activation effectiveness and prescriber awareness to sustain growth .

Additional Q4 2024 and Prior Quarter Data Points

  • Q4 2024: Total revenue $69.1M; U.S. net product revenue $31.6M; collaboration revenue $37.6M; net loss $21.3M; EPS -$0.11 .
  • Q3 2024: Total revenue $51.6M; U.S. net product revenue $31.1M; collaboration revenue $20.5M; net loss $29.5M; EPS -$0.15 .
  • Q2 2024: Total revenue $73.8M; U.S. net product revenue $28.3M; collaboration revenue $45.5M; net loss $61.9M; EPS -$0.33 .

Press releases and strategic updates:

  • CSL Seqirus partnership for Australia/New Zealand commercialization .
  • Otsuka Japan NDA submission for bempedoic acid; H2 2025 approval/pricing expected .
  • AHA presentations: PAD limb event reduction (36%) and real-world BA+EZE LDL outcomes .