EI
EVgo Inc. (EVGO)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 delivered record network throughput (84 GWh, +68% YoY) and charging network revenue ($46.5M, +73% YoY), with total revenue of $67.5M essentially flat sequentially vs Q3 ($67.5M) but up 35% YoY; GAAP gross margin expanded to 14.5% and Adj. Gross Margin to 33.7% .
- Management issued 2025 guidance calling for $340–$380M revenue and Adj. EBITDA of ($5)M to $10M, targeting EBITDA breakeven in 2025; charging network revenue expected to be ~two-thirds of total with sequential growth through the year .
- Utilization reached an “industry-leading” 24% (up ~5 pts YoY), average daily throughput per public stall rose to 269 kWh/day (from 197 a year ago), and Autocharge+ sessions hit 24% of total; dynamic pricing is now deployed across 100% of sites .
- Strategic catalysts include the closed $1.25B DOE loan (first $75M draw in Jan-2025), next-gen charger co-development with Delta targeting ~30% CapEx per-stall reduction (from 2H’26), and initial native NACS (J3400) rollout to attract Tesla drivers .
- We attempted to pull S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024, but data were unavailable at the time of analysis; thus, no vs-consensus comparisons are shown (S&P Global estimates unavailable).
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record operating momentum: Q4 throughput 84 GWh (+68% YoY), charging network revenue $46.5M (+73% YoY), and sequential ninth quarter of double‑digit charging revenue growth; CEO: “EVgo finished 2024 strong, achieving record throughput and stall deployments.”
- Efficiency and unit economics: GAAP gross margin expanded to 14.5% (from 7.1% a year ago), Adjusted Gross Margin to 33.7% (from 26.5%), driven by higher utilization (24%) and scale benefits; CFO highlighted leverage with top 15% of network generating ~$50k per stall per year .
- Strategic financing and technology roadmap: Closed $1.25B DOE loan to fund ~7,500 stalls (first $75M drawn Jan‑2025) and advanced a joint development agreement with Delta for next‑gen charging architecture targeting ~30% lower gross CapEx per stall .
What Went Wrong
- Revenue mix timing: eXtend revenue fell 2% YoY in Q4 to $17.9M due to ~$4M of revenue timing that shifted into Q1 2025, partially muting sequential growth despite strong core charging .
- Profitability still negative: Adj. EBITDA improved materially but remained at ($8.4)M in Q4 and ($32.5)M for FY24; GAAP net loss in Q4 was ($35.6)M .
- Higher near-term operating spend: Adjusted G&A increased sequentially by ~$4M in Q4 to support next‑gen architecture, with management guiding to modest further increases from the Q4 run rate in 2025 .
Financial Results
Summary P&L vs Prior Periods
Segment/Revenue Mix
KPIs and Operating Metrics
Notes: In 2024, EVgo reclassified dedicated fleet charging from “commercial charging” to “ancillary,” and associated costs moved from “charging network cost of sales” to “other.” Prior periods were conformed for comparability .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO framing: “We’ve secured financing and expect to more than triple our installed base in five years… we expect an estimated further 40% growth in revenues in 2025 and achieving Adjusted EBITDA breakeven” .
- Unit economics and performance: “Utilization… reached… 24%… 65% of our stalls had utilization >15%… top 15% of our network… ~599 kWh/day” (CFO) . “Annual cash flow per public stall increased 5x… top 15%… roughly $50,000 per stall per year” (CFO) .
- Pricing and product: “Last year, we began rolling out dynamic pricing… expanded… to 100%… expect the next major update… in the second half of this year” (CEO) .
- Technology roadmap: “Co‑develop the next generation of chargers… expected to lower our gross CapEx per stall by 30%… prototype in Q2 of this year [2025]” (CEO) .
- NACS rollout: “First pilot site with native NACS connectors was operational in February 2025… Additional locations anticipated throughout 2025” .
Q&A Highlights
- DOE loan durability and alternative financing: Management emphasized the loan is a “legally binding contract,” noted strong asset performance, and outlined complementary non‑dilutive financing options (project finance/straight debt/hybrids) with positive bank receptivity .
- 2025 guidance drivers: ~2/3 revenue from charging network; sequential quarterly growth; LCFS price variability and timing factors; Adj. G&A to rise modestly from Q4 run rate .
- AV dedicated hubs strategy: Fixed‑fee model with stable utilization; margins lower than public owned/operated but higher than eXtend; expected to grow faster than previously anticipated .
- Geographic prioritization and competition: Mix shifting to non‑CA markets; charging build‑outs by competitors (e.g., IONNA) seen as demand stimulants; EVgo confident in site selection for high utilization .
- Tariffs and demand charges: Minimal direct tariff exposure; broad demand charge reductions/holidays and rising throughput reduce demand charge impact over time .
Estimates Context
- We attempted to retrieve S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus estimates for Q4 2024 (revenue, EPS, EBITDA), but the data were unavailable at the time of analysis; therefore, vs‑consensus comparisons are not provided (S&P Global estimates unavailable).
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Core health improving: Q4 delivered record throughput and charging network revenue with gross margin and adjusted gross margin expanding materially, supported by utilization rising to 24% and dynamic pricing at scale .
- 2025 inflection targeted: Management guides to $340–$380M revenue and Adj. EBITDA breakeven range (‑$5M to +$10M), with sequential growth through 2025 and ~two‑thirds mix from charging network revenues .
- Funded growth runway: The $1.25B DOE loan (first $75M drawn) underpins a plan to add ~7,500 stalls over five years; additional non‑dilutive financing being pursued for projects outside the DOE scope .
- Technology and CapEx leverage: Delta JDA and prefab skids aim to structurally lower CapEx per stall (~30% target from 2H’26), supporting long‑term returns at scale .
- New demand unlocks: Native NACS connectors should increase Tesla driver usage; rideshare and AV dedicated hubs offer baseload demand and diversification of revenue streams .
- Watch near‑term optics: eXtend revenue timing shifted ~$4M from Q4 to Q1, and Adj. G&A rises near‑term to support next‑gen architecture; nonetheless, operating leverage is trending favorably .
- Policy backdrop: CARB LCFS amendments (Q4) and the DOE loan support the economics and funding of the buildout; management cites minimal direct impact from announced tariffs and continued demand growth outside CA .