Executive Summary

Q1 2025 beat Street: adjusted operating EPS $0.92 vs $0.86 consensus and revenue $6.71B vs $6.45B, driven by new distribution/transmission rates (+$0.14 EPS), favorable PECO weather (+$0.03) and tax repairs timing (+$0.02), partly offset by higher interest expense (-$0.03) and timing at ComEd (-$0.09, expected to reverse) .
Guidance unchanged: reaffirmed FY25 adjusted EPS $2.64–$2.74, 5–7% EPS CAGR through 2028, and a $38B four‑year capex plan producing 7.4% rate base growth; FY25 capex plan of $9.1B reiterated .
Financing de‑risked: completed all planned corporate debt for 2025 (including $1.0B hybrid) and ~50% of total 2025 debt; ~60% of ~$700M annual equity need priced via ATM/forwards .
Structural tailwinds: large-load pipeline intact (17 GW) with advanced studies on an additional 16 GW; regulatory progress at FERC/PJM and pro‑security/affordability legislation in Maryland support incremental T&D investment opportunity beyond plan ($10–$15B transmission) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- EPS/revenue beat with quality drivers: “Exelon earned $0.92 per share… higher results of $0.24 per share over the same period,” led by new rates (+$0.14), PECO weather (+$0.03), and tax timing (+$0.02) .
- Policy/regulatory momentum: “The 17 gigawatt pipeline… remains fully intact… [and] advanced studies on an additional 16 gigawatts of high‑density load,” with Maryland passing bills to procure dispatchable resources and battery storage—expanding utility investment avenues .
- Balance sheet execution: “Completed… all of our $2 billion of debt financing needs at corporate, including $1 billion of hybrid debt… [and] derisked nearly 60% of our annualized [2025] equity needs via our ATM” .
What Went Wrong
- Higher interest expense headwind (‑$0.03 EPS YoY) and elevated O&M timing at ComEd (‑$0.07 in 1Q, expected to reverse later in year) .
- Customer affordability pressures: BGE bills up ~50% in the cold winter, with 80% of the increase tied to weather, commodities and legislative changes—necessitating expanded customer relief actions .
- Tariff risk, albeit manageable: proposed tariff policy impact estimated at ~1.5% of the 4‑year capital and O&M plan (majority capital), with effects delayed by inventories/lead times .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Consensus (Q1 2025)
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$6.04	$5.47	$6.71	$6.45*
GAAP EPS ($)	$0.66	$0.64	$0.90	$0.86*
Adjusted (non‑GAAP) EPS ($)	$0.68	$0.64	$0.92	—
GAAP Net Income ($USD Billions)	$0.66	$0.65	$0.91	—
Net Income Margin (%)	10.9% (calc from )	11.8% (calc from )	13.5% (calc from )	—

Notes:

Consensus values marked with an asterisk (*) are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Net income margin is calculated from cited revenue and GAAP net income sources.

Segment detail and YoY earnings mix

Consolidated operating revenues by utility, Q1 2025: ComEd $2,065M; PECO $1,333M; BGE $1,554M; PHI $1,778M .
Adjusted operating earnings by utility:

Utility Adjusted Operating Earnings ($USD Millions)	Q1 2024	Q1 2025
ComEd	$219	$325
PECO	$149	$265
BGE	$264	$260
PHI	$168	$194

Key KPIs and financing progress

KPI	Q1 2025
Corporate debt issued (Q1)	$2.0B total; includes $1.0B hybrid; completed all planned corporate 2025 issuances
Total 2025 debt progress	~50% of planned financing completed (includes $650M for Pepco Holdings utilities)
2025 equity plan progress	~60% of ~$700M annual need priced (ATM $175M issued; $250M forward)
Dividend	$0.40 per share declared (payable Jun 13 to holders of record May 12)

Non‑GAAP notes: Q1 2025 adjusted EPS excludes regulatory matters (+$0.02) and minor FERC audit liability/tiny cost mgmt items; reconciliations provided in the 8‑K exhibits .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EPS ($)	FY 2025	$2.64–$2.74 (introduced Feb 12, 2025)	$2.64–$2.74 (reaffirmed)	Maintained
Adjusted EPS CAGR	2024–2028	5–7%	5–7% (expect midpoint or better)	Maintained
4‑Year Capex	2025–2028	$38B	$38B (reiterated)	Maintained
Rate Base Growth	2024–2028	7.4%	7.4% (reiterated)	Maintained
2025 Capex	FY 2025	$9.1B target	$9.1B reiterated	Maintained
Dividend	FY 2025	~$1.60 expected (subject to Board)	$0.40/qtr declared (June), consistent with ~$1.60 run‑rate	Maintained
Annual Equity Needs	2025–2028	~$700M per year	~$700M per year; ~60% of 2025 priced	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3’24, Q4’24)	Current Period (Q1’25)	Trend
Large‑load/data center pipeline	Pipeline up from 6 GW to 11+ GW in 2024; emphasis on transmission opportunity and clustering; PJM/MISO windows discussed	17 GW pipeline intact; advanced studies on another 16 GW; phasing detail and ramp timing shared (10% by 2028; ~1/3 by 2030; ~3/4 by 2034)	Accelerating
PJM reforms/resource adequacy	Advocating capacity/RA reforms; governors’ urgency; portfolio of solutions (incl. potential utility‑owned gen)	FERC 206 co‑location proceeding; seeking rapid clarity; portfolio approach reiterated	Constructive momentum
Maryland policy	Lessons‑Learned MYP process, stakeholder engagement	New laws on energy security, battery storage, large-load tariffs; recognition of MYPs; reconciliation phase‑out addressed	Positive policy tailwind
Affordability/customer relief	Ongoing focus; storm impacts in 2024	Significant winter bill pressure; expanded assistance, disconnection suspension, payment plans	Heightened focus
Financing/balance sheet	Pre‑issuance hedges; complete 2024 financings; S&P upgrade to BBB+ in Feb 2025	2025 corporate debt fully issued; ~60% of equity need priced; continued cushion vs. downgrade thresholds	De‑risking progressing

Management Commentary

CEO: “2025 is off to a good start. We are reporting operating earnings of $0.92 per share… ahead of expectations, which keeps us on track to deliver on our 2025 operating earnings guidance range” .
CEO: “The 17 gigawatt pipeline… remains fully intact. We are also conducting advanced studies on an additional 16 gigawatts of high-density load…” .
CFO: “Exelon earned $0.92 per share in the first quarter of 2025 compared to $0.68… primarily driven by $0.14 of new… rates… $0.03 of favorable weather at PECO and $0.02 of tax repairs timing… offset by $0.03 of higher interest expense” .
CEO: “With approximately 90% of our supply sourced domestically, we have estimated [proposed tariff policy] impact to be around 1.5% of our 4‑year capital and O&M… with the majority impacting capital” .
CFO: “We have completed nearly 50% of our planned long‑term debt financing transactions… and [priced] nearly 60% of our [2025] equity needs via our ATM” .

Q&A Highlights

Maryland reconciliations/MYPs: Management is confident reconciliations will conclude soon and future Maryland MYPs can be executed without reconciliations, supported by new legislation recognizing MYPs and large‑load cost allocation rules .
FERC 206/co‑location: Open to settlement but prefer quick FERC decision; principles unchanged—front‑of‑the‑meter treatment, equitable cost allocation, and reliability studies akin to other large loads .
Pennsylvania regulated generation: Exelon will support solutions that ensure affordability and resource adequacy, with an emphasis on clear recoverability in any legislative constructs .
Data center phasing and timing: ~70% Phase 1, 20% Phase 2, 10% Phase 3 for the 16 GW disclosed in Q4; additional 16 GW broadly similar; ~10% of load on by 2028, ~1/3 by 2030, ~3/4 by 2034 .
Affordability actions: Winter cost spikes led to suspension of disconnections, extended payment plans, increased outreach, and partnership with state relief funds (e.g., $200M in Maryland) .

Estimates Context

Metric	Q1 2025 Actual	Street Consensus	Surprise
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.92	$0.86*	+$0.06 (calc)
Revenue ($B)	$6.71	$6.45*	+$0.27 (calc)

Notes: Consensus values are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global. Surprise amounts are calculated vs S&P Global consensus.

Where estimates may adjust

Positive revisions likely to carry through near‑term given the beat and CFO’s shaping commentary (Q2 ~14% of FY midpoint; ~48% of FY earnings in 1H), with ComEd timing expected to reverse over balance of year .
Rate/affordability dynamics (Maryland reconciliation outcomes; PJM capacity reforms; FERC co‑location decision) could drive medium‑term capex pacing and earnings visibility .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Quality beat with reaffirmed full‑year guide; seasonal cadence/ComEd timing support trajectory to midpoint or better of FY range .
Structural load tailwind is strengthening (17 GW intact + 16 GW under study), with clear phasing and multi‑year ramp, underpinning T&D capex beyond the plan .
Balance sheet/cost of capital well managed: hybrid issuance, pre‑issuance hedging, and equity ATM/forwards de‑risk 2025 funding; credit metrics stay above downgrade thresholds .
Policy catalysts: Maryland’s energy security/battery storage framework and forthcoming FERC 206 clarity on co‑location can unlock incremental regulated investment and protect affordability .
Watch affordability optics: elevated bills and PJM capacity dynamics sustain political risk; Exelon’s customer programs and decoupling mitigate volume risk but headline sensitivity remains .
Near‑term trading implication: positive reaction bias on beat/guide reaffirmation and funding progress; medium‑term multiple support from data‑center‑driven T&D growth and potential transmission awards beyond plan .

Additional Materials Consulted

Q1 2025 8‑K press release and exhibits (including consolidating financials) .
Q1 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) .
Q4 2024 8‑K press release and presentation for prior quarter comps & guidance baseline .
Other Q2’25 timing notice and governance press releases (context) .

EXELON CORP (EXC)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary