Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating EPS | FY 2024 | $2.40 to $2.50 | $2.40 to $2.50 | no change |
Long-Term Annualized Operating EPS | FY 2024 | 5% to 7% | 5% to 7% | no change |
Capital Investment | FY 2024 | no prior guidance | $7.4 billion | no prior guidance |
Return on Equity | FY 2024 | 9% to 10% | 9% to 10% | no change |
Equity Issuance | FY 2024 | $1.6 billion from 2024 to 2027 | $1.6 billion from 2024 to 2027 | no change |
| Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Earnings Per Share (EPS) | Q3 2024 | Guided to ~0.66 (27% of the midpoint of the $2.40–$2.50 full-year range) | Achieved EPS of 0.70 (Basic) | Beat |
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Regulatory environment in Illinois | Q2 2024: Advanced ComEd’s revised grid plan with ~1.8% yearly rate increase, final order expected Dec 2024. Q1 2024: ComEd updated grid plan, $7.4B capex. Q4 2023: Disappointing ICC order led to ~$1.25B cut in distribution investments. | Optimistic about the final order for ComEd’s refiled plan, focusing on reliability, affordability, and energy transition. Capital plan includes significant grid investments. | Consistently addressed each quarter; cautious optimism with improving support in Illinois. |
Regulatory uncertainty in Maryland | Q2 2024: Received 1-year MYP framework for Pepco, disappointed with partial period. Q1 2024/Q4 2023: No mention. | Potential shift away from MYP; Exelon prepared for traditional rate-making if needed, with capital reallocation possible. | Recent focus in Q2/Q3 2024; ongoing monitoring of MYP changes. |
Growth from data center load | Q2 2024: ~5 GW in engineering, 13 GW in prospects. Q1 2024: Discussed Pennsylvania’s potential. Q4 2023: Transmission upgrades for data center-driven reliability. | Load growth escalated from 6 GW to 11 GW in ComEd territory; spotlight on cost allocation and co-location fairness. | Increasingly significant load; sharper focus on equitable cost-sharing. |
Investments in transmission | Q2 2024: Stressed reliability needs, changing generation mix, new load. Q4 2023: Added ~$1.5B in T capex for data center growth and retiring generation. Q1 2024: Not explicitly detailed. | Highlighted $9.7B in transmission through 2027, targeting reliability and decarbonization. | Consistent priority; expanded plans and higher visibility on T projects. |
Resource adequacy initiatives | Q2 2024: Concern about retiring baseload and adding renewables, need for infrastructure. Q1/Q4 2023: Not mentioned. | Focus on reliability during peak demand, linking grid upgrades to ensure adequate capacity. | Emerging since Q2 2024; growing emphasis on grid resilience. |
Focus on achieving or exceeding earnings guidance | Q2 2024: Same guidance with solid first-half performance. Q1 2024: Maintained guidance, targeting midpoint. Q4 2023: Exceeded 2023 guidance midpoint, strong track record. | Reaffirmed $2.40–$2.50 EPS range for 2024, aiming for midpoint or better; Q3 earnings beat expectations. | Consistent focus every quarter; repeatedly meeting or surpassing targets. |
Interest rate risk management | Q2 2024: Higher interest expense impacted earnings by $0.03; limited hedging references. Q1 2024: Pre-issuance hedging program to mitigate rate volatility. Q4 2023: General note on strong balance sheet and hedging instruments. | No mention in Q3 2024. | Previously highlighted but not discussed this quarter. |
PECO’s storm reserve & weather normalization | Q1 2024: Proposed storm reserve mechanism and WNA for PECO’s rate cases. Q2/Q4 2024: No new updates. | ALJs rejected weather normalization adjustment in gas rate case; no mention of storm reserve. | Limited follow-up; partial focus on WNA in Q3 2024. |
Significance of FERC rulings | Q2 2024: Engaged with FERC on co-location fairness and ensuring all grid users pay their share. Q1/Q4 2023: Not mentioned. | Exelon filed 205 requests for clarity on cost shifting and co-location tariffs, aiming for guidance by December. | Ongoing pursuit of clear cost recovery rules to prevent cost shifting. |
Shifts in regulatory sentiment & strategic growth | Q2 2024: Emphasis on grid plans in IL, MYP in MD, co-location costs. Q1 2024: Updated plans in IL, new PECO rate cases. Q4 2023: Unfavorable IL ruling, pivoted to more transmission. | Regulatory progress across jurisdictions, multiple rate cases, flexible capital allocation for evolving policy landscape. | Continuously adapting strategies to align with changing regulatory environments. |
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PJM Resource Adequacy Q: How will you address PJM's resource adequacy issues? A: We believe PJM's request to delay the capacity auction underscores the need for market reform. We're working with governors and regulators to ensure reliable, resilient, and affordable energy. While some discuss re-regulating generation, we're focused on solutions that maintain reliability without necessarily advocating for that approach.
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Transmission Investment Growth Q: Can transmission investment exceed your $9.7B plan? A: Yes, due to increasing needs for reliability, changing generation mix, and new load growth, we expect transmission investments to grow. New opportunities like PJM's recent Window 1 and MISO's Tranche 2 could add a couple hundred million dollars not yet in our plan.
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Maryland Investment Plans Q: How would losing Maryland’s multiyear plan affect investments? A: We'd continue investing in the grid for reliability and resilience. If Maryland shifts from multiyear plans, we'll adapt using traditional rate-making and may reallocate capital across jurisdictions, but our commitment to smart investments remains.
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205 Filings and FERC Clarity Q: Why did you file recent 205s on network load tariffs? A: We filed 205s to seek clarity from FERC on cost allocation for co-located loads, preventing cost shifts and ensuring reliability. We aim for guidance by early December to proceed confidently with large load customers.
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Illinois Capacity Market Q: Updates on Illinois capacity and CMC roll-off? A: We're starting discussions to secure reliable generation post-2027 when CMCs expire. We're focused on solutions for safe, reliable, and affordable generation in Illinois.
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Alignment on Resource Solutions Q: Are you aligned with peers on resource adequacy? A: We agree on the importance of reliability and affordability but recognize different jurisdictions may need different solutions. We're engaged in industry discussions and working with stakeholders to address these issues.
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Governors' Stance on Co-location Q: Your view on governors' positions on co-location? A: Governors prioritize reliability, affordability, and economic development. We support co-location when parties pay their fair share for grid use. We're collaborating with stakeholders to ensure cost allocation and reliability are addressed.
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PJM Transmission Partnerships Q: Consider partnering for PJM transmission filings? A: Yes, we're open to partnering with other utilities if it benefits our customers by enhancing reliability, resilience, and affordability.
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Legislative Efforts on PJM Capacity Q: Expect legislative actions on PJM capacity in 2025? A: Governors' letters highlight urgency, but it's too early to say. Discussions over the next 60 days will indicate potential legislative actions in 2025.
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ISA Filings and Reliability Q: How do cost allocation and reliability factor into ISA filings? A: We support co-location but insist on appropriate cost allocation and reliability studies. Co-located loads should pay their fair share, and reliability must be ensured through proper studies and rate design.