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EXELON CORP (EXC)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 delivered solid operational/financial performance: Adjusted EPS $0.86 (+21% y/y), GAAP EPS $0.86 (+23% y/y), revenue $6.705B (+9% y/y), and operating income $1.500B (+25% y/y), aided by higher rates and lower storm costs at PECO/BGE .
  • Results beat Wall Street on EPS by ~10% and revenue by ~3% while EBITDA was modestly below consensus; 2025 EPS guidance ($2.64–$2.74) and 5–7% LT CAGR were reaffirmed; 2025 debt financings completed and ~half of equity needs through 2028 are priced .
  • Reliability remains a differentiator (utilities ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th, 7th nationally), and the large-load (data center/AI) pipeline expanded to 19+ GW with first TSA executed (PECO) and ComEd filing a large-load tariff to protect customers .
  • Regulatory catalysts: Pepco MD rate case filed ($133.2M, 10.50% ROE), ACE and DPL DE gas rate cases on track, ComEd reconciliation proposed order imminent; policy momentum in IL (SB 25) and MD energy security RFP supports medium-term investment/earnings visibility .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Rate-driven earnings uplift across utilities; management: “Exelon delivered another quarter of strong financial performance... third quarter adjusted operating earnings of $0.86 per share” .
  • Reliability and storm management: lower storm costs at PECO/BGE; CEO: “our four utility operating companies are ranked one, two, four, and seven...” underscoring operational excellence .
  • Balance sheet/financing execution: 100% of 2025 debt financing completed; nearly half of equity through 2028 priced via ATM/forwards, reducing rate/share price risk .

What Went Wrong

  • Corporate-level headwinds: higher interest expense at holding company; PHI interest expense partially offset rate gains .
  • ComEd timing: distribution earnings timing affected period shaping; management noted “timing of distribution earnings” as a partial offset .
  • Depreciation rising with capex cadence (PECO/BGE/PHI); elevated purchased power/fuel at BGE/PHI with robust load, though decoupling mitigates distribution earnings volatility .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$6.154 $5.427 $6.705
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.71 $0.39 $0.86
GAAP EPS ($USD)$0.70 $0.39 $0.86
Operating Income ($USD Billions)$1.196 $0.927 $1.500
MarginQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
EBIT Margin % (Operating Income / Revenue)19.5% 17.1% 22.4%

Segment breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024):

SegmentOperating Revenues ($USD Millions) Q3 2024Operating Revenues ($USD Millions) Q3 2025GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions) Q3 2024GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions) Q3 2025
ComEd$2,229 $2,275 $360 $373
PECO$1,030 $1,180 $117 $250
BGE$1,044 $1,209 $45 $82
PHI$1,862 $2,051 $278 $291
Other$(11) $(10) $(93) $(121)
Total Exelon$6,154 $6,705 $707 $875

KPIs and operational indicators:

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
Large-load pipeline (GW)>17 GW >19 GW; first TSA executed (PECO)
Reliability rankingTop decile/top quartile across LDCs 1st, 2nd, 4th, 7th nationally
Debt financing progress~80% completed 100% completed for 2025
Equity financing progress100% of 2025; ~22% of 2026 priced 100% of 2025; ~95% of 2026; ~half through 2028 priced
Dividend per share$0.40 declared (payable Sep 15) $0.40 declared (payable Dec 15)
2025 capex target$9.1B $9.1B (unchanged)

Estimate comparison (Wall Street consensus vs actual – Q3 2025):

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
EPS ($)$0.778*$0.86 +$0.082 (+10.5%)*
Revenue ($B)$6.482*$6.705 +$0.223 (+3.4%)*
EBITDA ($B)$2.321*$2.252*−$0.069 (−3.0%)*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted Operating EPS ($/share)FY 2025$2.64–$2.74 $2.64–$2.74 Maintained
LT Operating EPS CAGR2024–20285–7% 5–7% (midpoint or better) Maintained
Capex Plan2025–2028$38B $38B Maintained
Operating ROE target20259–10% 9–10% Maintained
Equity issuance2025–2028~$700M per year (total ~$2.8B) ~$700M per year; ~half priced through 2028 Execution progress
DividendQuarterly$0.40 (Q2 2025 declaration) $0.40 (Q3 2025 declaration) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Resource adequacy & policyAdvocating portfolio solutions; MD legislation (storage, RFP); PJM CIFP reforms; regulated gen under discussion (PA/NJ/DE) CEO/CFO emphasize supply shortfall; IL SB 25 passed; MD RFP submissions fall short; call for state-led solutions (incl. utility-owned generation) Intensifying focus; rising urgency
Large-load (AI/data centers)Pipeline >17 GW; cluster studies; customer protection via tariffs; timing ramp 10% by 2028/⅓ by 2030 Pipeline >19 GW; first TSA executed; ComEd large-load tariff filing; more studies/TSAs imminent Growing pipeline with formalization
Transmission opportunities$10–15B identified beyond plan; PJM/MISO prospects; Tri-County success Continued positioning; bids in PJM 2025 RTEP Window #1; potential MISO Tranche 2.1 >$1B Building backlog/visibility
Financing/credit metricsPre-issuance hedging; 100–200bps cushion over Moody’s threshold; ATM forward equity 2025 debt done; ~half equity needs through 2028 priced; path to ~14% credit metric by period-end; CAMT/repairs clarity targeted Plan de-risking; added cushion
Customer affordabilityBill effects from PJM capacity; relief funds; deferrals Continued emphasis; TSA/tariff designs protect existing customers; state programs to mitigate costs Sustained priority

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “I am pleased to report that Exelon has achieved another quarter of strong operational and financial performance… we reaffirm our full-year earnings guidance and long-term growth outlook” .
  • CFO: “We remain on track to meet our full year earnings guidance of $2.64 to $2.74 per share… enabling us to invest $38 billion in critical infrastructure over the next four years” .
  • CEO on policy: “There is a significant anticipated shortfall in supply… All states need to leverage all available options… including utility-owned generation” .
  • CFO on large-load protections: “We… filed in the ComEd service territory a large load tariff… agreements… help protect other customers should the demand not rise” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Maryland resource adequacy RFP: Management commended the effort but said responses “fall short”; open to regulated solutions complementing markets; clarity expected in coming months .
  • CAMT repairs guidance: CFO hopeful for IRS clarity by year-end; potential 50bps improvement to credit metrics, to be reflected in Q4 financing update .
  • ACE rate case: Ongoing settlement discussions; interim rates subject to refund sustain momentum; management expects resolution by year-end .
  • TSA/large-load tariff: First TSA at PECO executed; ComEd filed tariff requiring TSAs for >50MW loads to firm commitments and protect customers .
  • Transmission pipeline/probability: PJM window decisions by year-end; once certain, projects will enter plan; not baked into current 5–7% growth trajectory .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 beat: EPS $0.86 vs $0.778 consensus (+10.5%); revenue $6.705B vs $6.482B (+3.4%); EBITDA $2.252B vs $2.321B (−3.0%). Expect modest positive EPS/Revenue estimate revisions near-term; EBITDA softness reflects mix/timing and higher O&M/interest, not structural deterioration . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Sustained execution: Multi-utility rate-driven growth and reliability are translating into y/y EPS/revenue gains and an EBIT margin step-up; near-term shaping/timing manageable .
  • Beat-and-raise dynamic muted but supportive: EPS/revenue beats alongside guidance reaffirmation; the de-risked financing plan (debt complete, equity priced) lowers capital-market sensitivity .
  • Policy tailwinds: IL SB 25 and MD RFPs signal increasing state engagement on energy security; Exelon positioned to participate (storage, transmission, potential regulated generation) .
  • AI/data center growth: 19+ GW pipeline with TSA/tariff structure reduces execution risk and protects core customers; provides multi-year capex/revenue visibility .
  • Watch regulatory milestones: Pepco MD rate case (Aug 2026 decision timeline), ACE/DPL DE cases, ComEd reconciliation (ALJ order/proposed today) as incremental earnings catalysts .
  • Valuation implications: Reliability/regulated growth, estimate beats, and balance-sheet strength support multiple stability; incremental upside tied to transmission awards and state-led resource adequacy solutions .
  • Near-term trading: Favorable narrative (beat, reliability, financing execution) with policy momentum may drive constructive sentiment into Q4 guide update; monitor IRS CAMT guidance outcome and PJM window results for potential catalysts .

Notes:

  • All document-based facts/figures cited to company filings and transcripts as shown.
  • *Values retrieved from S&P Global.