Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Record quarterly revenue of $44.8M, up 143% year-over-year, driven by strong exchange activity and early XO Swap contribution; full-year revenue reached $116.3M, up 107% .
• Exchange provider processed volume surged to $2.33B (+172% YoY per press release; CFO cited +169%), and monthly active users rose to 2.3M (+64% YoY), highlighting broad engagement and market momentum .
• XO Swap contributed 12% of Q4 revenue, with 11 partners signed and 5 in integration; Passkeys Wallet ended 2024 with over 200k users, supporting a B2B2C strategy flywheel .
• Preliminary Q1 2025 indicators point to continued strength: $1.45B processed volume in Jan–Feb already exceeds Q1 2024’s full-quarter volume, and treasury BTC holdings surpassed 2,000 units by Feb 28 .
• No formal numerical guidance was issued; margin details (gross margin, G&A, EPS) were deferred to forthcoming filings, a near-term investor focus point .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record revenue and operating leverage: “In Q4, we delivered improved profitability,” with XO Swap contributing 12% of revenue as partnerships came online .
• Ecosystem traction: Exchange provider processed volume hit $2.33B (+172% YoY), MAUs reached 2.3M (+64% YoY), demonstrating broad platform engagement .
• Strategic product momentum: “Passkeys Wallet removes onboarding friction… eliminate the need for traditional passwords and recovery phrases,” underpinning developer adoption and user growth . CEO added: “With XO Swap contributing 12% of our Q4 revenue, we are enthusiastic about its long-term potential” .

What Went Wrong

• Limited disclosure on profitability metrics: Analysts asked about gross margin and G&A; management advised to “wait for the filing,” leaving margin and EPS clarity pending .
• Dependence on crypto cycles: CFO reiterated revenue is largely tied to exchange aggregation and market cycles, which are “volatile in the short term,” a structural risk investors must monitor .
• Uplisting and regulatory costs: There were onetime uplisting/Form 10-related legal and accounting costs in 2024; details to be quantified in the 10-K, potentially impacting reported margins .

Financial Results

Sequential comparison (Q3 → Q4)

Year-over-year comparison (Q4 2023 → Q4 2024)

Revenue composition

KPIs

Note: Year-over-year exchange volume growth cited as +172% in the press release and +169% by CFO on the call .

Guidance Changes

Management did not provide formal revenue/EPS/margin guidance ranges; margin details deferred to upcoming filings .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• CEO: “In the fourth quarter, in addition to record revenue we achieved milestones that significantly advanced our product innovation and strengthened our market position” .
• CEO on products: “XO Swap’s increasing industry adoption highlights demand for self-custody solutions… Passkeys Wallet removes onboarding friction… eliminate the need for traditional passwords and recovery phrases” .
• CFO: “In Q4, we delivered improved profitability… XO Swap contributed 12% of revenue in Q4… positions Exodus for continued momentum in 2025” .
• CFO on model and mix: Exchange aggregation accounted for 92% of FY24 revenue; 93% from users and 7% from XO Swap; non-exchange 8% .
• CFO on treasury and accounting: Ended Q4 with ~$265M digital/liquid assets; debt-free; early adopters of ASU 2023-08 (fair value for digital assets) .

Q&A Highlights

• Security events and demand: Analyst asked impact of $1.5B CEX hack; CEO expects continued tailwinds for self-custody and noted onboarding influx, not yet quantified .
• Profitability disclosure: Analyst asked about gross margins and G&A; CFO said to “wait for the filing,” implying margin/EPS clarity forthcoming .
• Pricing changes: Analyst asked about swap/pricing mechanism; CFO indicated changes did not materially alter margin structure and reflect continued optimization (e.g., Solana fees) .
• XO Swap branding: Branding visibility varies by partner; APIs power the experience across partner interfaces .
• XO Pay integration: CEO described goal of seamless fiat on/off ramps; MoonPay remains a strong partner; Exodus seeks unified experience regardless of provider .

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 revenue and EPS was unavailable at time of request due to access limits; no estimate comparison can be provided. This may constrain near-term “beat/miss” framing pending third-party data availability. Once consensus is accessible, compare actual revenue ($44.8M) and any reported EPS to consensus to assess recalibration needs .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• XO Swap is emerging as a material revenue driver (12% of Q4), validating the B2B2C aggregator strategy and potentially diversifying revenue beyond core user exchange activity .
• Operating leverage narrative is supported by record revenue and surging volumes; margin clarity awaits the 10-K, which will be an important catalyst for valuation frameworks .
• Macro tailwinds and security narratives (ETF inflows, CEX hacks) align with self-custody adoption, underpinning MAU growth to 2.3M and strong volume prints .
• Treasury strength (>$260M digital/liquid assets; >1,900 BTC at Q4 end; >2,000 BTC by Feb) offers flexibility for product investment and M&A, while fair-value accounting introduces earnings volatility tied to asset prices .
• Near-term trading lens: Watch for the 10-K disclosure on margins and any formal guidance; monitor partner announcements and XO Swap integration velocity, which can drive narrative and multiples .
• Medium-term thesis: A growing partner network and embedded wallet strategy (Passkeys) can expand TAM and smooth cyclicality; execution on XO Pay to unify fiat rails will be key to user experience and monetization .
• Preliminary Q1 datapoints suggest momentum continues (two-month volume $1.45B already above Q1 2024), supporting positive estimate revisions once consensus is available .

Appendix: Additional Context and Releases

• Venmo integration through MoonPay expands U.S. payment options within Exodus, improving fiat on-ramp accessibility .
• XO Swap integrated into Bifrost Wallet, extending cross-chain liquidity aggregation into Flare/Songbird ecosystems .
• New swap experience announced Jan 7, 2025 with lower fees (~0.5%), fixed rates and broader liquidity routing—supports competitive user economics .
• December 12, 2024 update: Over 1,900 BTC and 2,660 ETH held; $1.26B processed volume in Oct–Nov, foreshadowing Q4 strength .

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