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    Expedia Group (EXPE)

    EXPE Q1 2025: Sees 75–100bps Margin Expansion on Cost Cuts, Strong B2B

    Reported on May 9, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$168.99Last close (May 8, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$152.59Open (May 9, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-16.40(-9.70%)
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +3.4% (USD 2,988M in Q1 2025 vs. USD 2,889M in Q1 2024)

    Total revenue increased modestly due to balanced contributions from domestic (USD 1,831M) and international segments, with steady performance from key business lines such as Lodging and B2C supporting the revenue base compared to the prior period.

    Gross Bookings (Merchant & Agency)

    Extraordinary jump with Merchant reaching USD 18,212 and Agency USD 13,239

    The booking segments saw an extraordinary increase from prior quarter figures, driven by a surge in customer demand and robust booking activity in the travel segments, indicating improvements in market conditions and consumer confidence relative to previous periods.

    Net Income

    Worsened by 45% (from USD (136)M in Q1 2024 to USD (197)M in Q1 2025)

    Net income deteriorated significantly, turning more negative despite revenue growth; this suggests increased operating expenses or cost pressures that eroded profitability compared to the prior period.

    Operating Cash Flow

    Remained robust at USD 2,952M

    Operating cash flow maintained its strong performance, indicating efficient working capital management and solid operational cash generation even though net income declined, evidencing resilient underlying business operations relative to Q1 2024.

    Total Assets

    +5.5% (increased from prior period levels to USD 26,114M)

    The increase in total assets was driven by significant growth in liquidity and short-term investments, with rises in cash, restricted cash, and accounts receivable contributing to an overall asset expansion compared to Q1 2024.

    Total Current Assets

    +10% (from USD 12,348M in Q1 2024 to USD 13,587M in Q1 2025)

    Total current assets saw a notable rise due to boosted cash and restricted cash positions, higher short-term investments, and increased accounts receivable, reflecting the company's enhanced liquidity from the previous period.

    Total Current Liabilities

    +19% (from USD 15,565M in Q1 2024 to USD 18,573M in Q1 2025)

    The significant increase in total current liabilities likely reflects a higher level of short-term obligations taken on to support operational expansion and business growth compared to the previous period.

    Stockholders’ Equity

    +9% (rose to USD 2,321M in Q1 2025)

    Stockholders’ equity improved modestly, bolstered by increases in additional paid-in capital and contributions from non-controlling interests that helped offset declines in retained earnings and the impact of treasury stock from share repurchases relative to Q1 2024.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Gross Bookings Growth

    Q1 2025

    4% to 6%

    None

    no current guidance

    Revenue Growth

    Q1 2025

    3% to 5%

    None

    no current guidance

    EBITDA Margins

    Q1 2025

    Flat to slightly better year-over-year

    None

    no current guidance

    Gross Bookings and Revenue Growth

    FY 2025

    4% to 6%

    None

    no current guidance

    EBITDA Margin Expansion

    FY 2025

    Expand by 50 basis points year-over-year

    None

    no current guidance

    Dividend

    FY 2025

    $0.40 per share (1% annual yield)

    None

    no current guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Revenue Growth
    Q1 2025
    3% to 5% YOY
    Increased from 2,889In Q1 2024 to 2,988In Q1 2025 (~3.4% YOY)
    Met
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    B2B Segment Growth Dynamics

    Q2 2024 showed strong 20% growth with a 200-basis point deceleration ; Q3 2024 featured 19% growth with only a slight deceleration ; Q4 2024 highlighted robust APAC performance and set high benchmarks for 2025.

    Q1 2025 reported 14% gross bookings growth with sequential deceleration attributed to Q4 strength, FX headwinds, and macro factors.

    Consistent growth remains a theme, though the narrative has shifted to managing deceleration amid external headwinds.

    Vrbo Brand Performance and Integration

    Q2 2024 noted marked recovery with acceleration from new marketing spends and product releases ; Q3 2024 highlighted a return to growth with supply improvements and migration challenges ; Q4 2024 emphasized growth acceleration and integration issues due to replatforming.

    Q1 2025 reported modest growth for the third consecutive quarter, with product improvements for shorter stays and adjustments in loyalty, while integration challenges persist.

    The focus remains on recovery and integration. While progress is evident, challenges from past migrations continue, prompting targeted product and loyalty adjustments.

    Hotels.com Brand Recovery

    Q2 2024 discussed recovery efforts driven by international focus and legacy loyalty in key markets ; Q3 2024 described a stable performance and leadership refresh ; Q4 2024 noted a modest return to growth despite migration and loyalty program challenges.

    Q1 2025 acknowledged softness tied to U.S. demand and FX headwinds but emphasized a relaunch with a new visual identity, pricing tools, and a tailored growth strategy.

    Recovery remains a priority with ongoing challenges in key markets; renewed branding and targeted initiatives signal optimism despite current softness.

    Margin Expansion and Profitability

    Q2 2024 reports highlighted cost reductions in sales and overhead driving EBITDA margin improvements ; Q3 2024 noted slightly lower margins influenced by one‐time charges yet raised full-year outlook ; Q4 2024 demonstrated strong expansion with efficient cost management and overhead leverage.

    Q1 2025 achieved over 1 percentage point EBITDA margin expansion, largely driven by improved B2B margins and disciplined cost control, with continued investments where justified.

    A continuous focus on cost efficiencies and strategic investments is evident; margins are expanding overall despite periodic pressure, reflecting disciplined profitability management.

    Loyalty Program Effectiveness and Cross-Brand Synergies

    Q2 2024 introduced initiatives such as a co-branded credit card and leveraged legacy programs to boost member benefits ; Q3 2024 marked the launch of member-only discounts on Vrbo and expanded benefits on Brand Expedia, driving active membership and repeat rates ; Q4 2024 saw strong membership growth and insights on cross-sell opportunities, albeit with mixed impacts across brands.

    Q1 2025 emphasized fine-tuning the loyalty program with tier adjustments, discontinuation of underperforming features (e.g. the 1% One Key Cash for Vrbo Blue), and halting further international rollout to preserve brand value, thereby reinforcing common currency benefits across brands.

    The program has consistently grown and driven cross-brand synergies, but recent adjustments show a shift toward optimizing effectiveness by tailoring offerings and reallocating investments to maximize value.

    Advertising Business Growth

    Q2 2024 discussed high double-digit growth in advertising, driven by market share capture and new product innovations ; Q3 2024 reported 32% revenue growth with product evolutions like video ads and improved engagement ; Q4 2024 recorded strong 25% growth with new ad types and better campaign tools.

    Q1 2025 posted 20% revenue growth in advertising, with record-sized deals, a surge in sponsored listings, and even higher click-through rates for new video ads optimized via AI.

    Advertising continues to be a high-growth, innovative segment though growth rates have moderated slightly, reflecting market maturation and ongoing product optimization.

    Expedia Brand Growth in Booked Room Nights

    Q2 2024: Room nights grew by nearly 20%, driven by strong consumer demand and product enhancements ; Q3 2024: Mid-teens year-on-year growth with new product features boosting performance ; Q4 2024: Booked room nights grew in the mid-teens, supported by higher ticket prices and improved merchandising.

    Q1 2025 saw a reduction to 7% growth in booked room nights, indicating a softer performance compared to previous periods.

    While Brand Expedia consistently delivers growth, Q1 2025 shows a slowdown in room nights growth, suggesting shifting market dynamics or seasonality that may require strategic adjustments.

    Macro Environment Impact and Travel Demand Softness

    Q2 2024: Noted a broad slowdown in travel demand driven by macro headwinds, FX pressure, and regulatory impacts ; Q3 2024: Mixed signals with softer U.S. demand contrasted by stronger international performance, with FX reducing revenue growth ; Q4 2024: Despite a healthy overall travel environment, some softness was noted due to FX factors and pull-forward effects.

    Q1 2025 highlighted significant U.S. softness with declining consumer sentiment and inbound travel challenges, compounded by FX headwinds—all amid a robust performance in the international B2B segment.

    Macro headwinds and travel demand softness continue to affect performance, with a notable intensity in the U.S. market during Q1 2025, even as international demand and diversified business segments help mitigate risks.

    Pricing Pressure in Air and Car Segments

    Q2 2024 and Q3 2024 both mentioned ongoing pricing pressure in air and car segments, with Q3 reporting a slight improvement for air toward the end of the quarter ; Q4 2024 did not address this topic.

    Q1 2025 specifically noted renewed pricing pressure in the air segment, with air ticket prices declining and ADRs down 1% (though FX-neutral values improved); no mention of changes in the car segment.

    Pricing pressures have been a recurring issue in air and car segments, with the air segment again facing challenges in Q1 2025; the narrative remains consistent though focus has shifted slightly to highlight FX impacts and adjustments in air pricing.

    1. Margin Expansion
      Q: How do macro trends affect margin expansion?
      A: Management explained that a diversified B2B mix and recent employment cuts support 75–100 bps margin expansion, even amid softer U.S. demand, showing confidence in disciplined cost control.

    2. B2C Outlook
      Q: Why is B2C guidance weaker than B2B?
      A: They attributed the lower B2C performance to soft U.S. demand and pricing pressures, while stressing continued investment in brand strengths like Vrbo and Hotels.com to drive long‐term value.

    3. B2B & Advertising
      Q: Does U.S. softness hurt B2B and ads?
      A: Management noted that B2B remains resilient thanks to its global diversification, and advertising yielded robust 20% growth through new solutions and AI-driven optimization, offsetting U.S. market pressures.

    4. Marketing Spend
      Q: Are current marketing levels optimal?
      A: They reported spending roughly $1.8B in Q1, with the mix shift toward B2B and efficiency gains suggesting they’re near the ROI frontier without necessarily needing additional spend.

    5. Hotels.com Turnaround
      Q: Do you foresee a Hotels.com revival?
      A: Management is optimistic after a recent brand refresh and product improvements, anticipating positive momentum and recovery later in the year.

    6. Booking & International
      Q: How healthy is the international rollout and booking curve?
      A: They observed steady growth internationally with robust room night gains from B2B, though the booking curve remains mixed due to softer inbound U.S. travel.

    7. Social ROI
      Q: What is the potential of social channels?
      A: The team emphasized Instagram’s growing role in trip planning, where social marketing has historically driven strong returns and now further integrates with booking tools.

    8. AI Strategy
      Q: How will AI investments transform the business?
      A: Management described AI as a transformative tool enhancing product functionality, traffic generation, partner experiences, and internal efficiencies, marking just the beginning of its impact.

    9. Experiences & Employment
      Q: Any moves on experiences and workforce cuts?
      A: They are leveraging Brand Expedia to boost trip attachments while executing a 4% employee and 7% contractor reduction to drive savings and reinvest in strategic initiatives.

    10. Vrbo Performance
      Q: What trends are seen in Vrbo bookings?
      A: Despite a softer U.S. backdrop, Vrbo continues consistent growth, with a focus on product enhancements for shorter stays to maintain momentum.

    11. Loyalty Program
      Q: How is the loyalty program evolving?
      A: Management is refining loyalty incentives—such as ending always-on earn for Vrbo Blue—to better drive member room nights and improve margin outcomes across key markets.

    Research analysts covering Expedia Group.