Executive Summary

As of Nov 20, 2025, Q1 2026 results and filings are not yet available. The latest primary sources show strengthening comps, margin expansion, and an FY25 guidance raise into year-end, with Q4 pricing actions and brand/CRM upgrades setting the stage for Q1 2026. Management flagged strong managed care traffic, premium mix, and pricing architecture as ongoing drivers .
FY25 guidance was raised on Nov 5 (net revenue to $1.970–$1.988B, AOI to $92–$98M, adj. EPS to $0.63–$0.71; tax rate to 28%, capex lowered to $80–$85M), underscoring momentum heading into FY26 planning .
Consensus for Q1 2026 stands at $547.5M revenue and $0.42 EPS with 6 and 7 estimates, respectively, implying growth vs recent quarters; FY26 consensus is $2.075B revenue and $0.92 EPS* (S&P Global)
Key stock reaction catalyst into the Q1 2026 print: sustainability of comp growth and gross margin expansion vs consensus, and any early FY26 framework provided alongside Q1 results (pricing/surgical lens actions, CRM-driven conversion, and managed care penetration trajectory) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Sustained comps and premium mix: Q3 comps +6.8% (Adjusted +7.7%) with average ticket +7.1% YoY as premium frames (e.g., Ted Baker, Jimmy Choo, Hugo Boss) outperformed expectations and lifestyle selling tools gained traction .
- Pricing and CRM/brand activation: Multi-year pricing “playbook” progressed; America’s Best “Every Eye Deserves Better” campaign and new CRM increased unaided awareness (~+19%) and engagement metrics (open/click rates) .
- Guidance raised with margin leverage: FY25 revenue, AOI, and adj. EPS ranges lifted; gross margin expanded on lower cost-of-revenue mix and optometrist cost leverage (Q3 cost-of-revenue down ~40 bps as % sales) .
What Went Wrong
- Cash-pay softness: Overall traffic flat as strength in managed care offset a still-muted cash-pay cohort, which management is trying to re-engage via assortment and marketing .
- Healthcare cost headwinds: Elevated health care expenses pressured flow-through in Q3, expected to persist through Q4 under current guide .
- Unearned/deferred revenue timing effects: Net change in unearned revenue margin negatively impacted Q3 EPS by ~$0.03 and AOI by ~$2.8M; Q2 benefited by ~$0.02 EPS and ~$1.9M AOI .

Financial Results

(Note: Q1 2026 not yet reported; consensus shown for comparison)

Metric	Q1 2025 (Actual)	Q2 2025 (Actual)	Q3 2025 (Actual)	Q1 2026 (Consensus)
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$510.3	$486.4	$487.3	$547.5*
GAAP Diluted EPS	$0.18	$0.11	$0.04	—
Adjusted Diluted EPS	$0.34	$0.18	$0.13	—
Primary EPS (Consensus)	—	—	—	$0.42 (7 ests)*
Adjusted Operating Income ($M)	$41.3	$23.8	$19.8	—
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)	8.1%	4.9%	4.1%	—
Costs applicable to revenue (% of net revenue)	—	41.2%	41.7%	—
Comparable store sales growth (%)	4.1%	6.5%	6.8%	—
Adjusted comparable store sales growth (%)	5.5%	5.9%	7.7%	—

Consensus (S&P Global) shows Q1 2026 Revenue $547.5M (6 estimates) and Primary EPS $0.42 (7 estimates). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment/Brand comps (cash-basis brand KPIs)

Brand Comp Growth	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
America’s Best	6.3%	8.1%
Eyeglass World	2.8%	5.2%
Military	4.4%	4.4%
Fred Meyer	6.9%	4.1%
Total Comparable Store Sales (GAAP)	6.5%	6.8%
Adjusted Comparable Store Sales	5.9%	7.7%

KPIs

KPI	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Stores (end of period)	1,240	1,242
Store openings (America’s Best)	8 opened, 5 closed	4 opened (AB), 2 Fred Meyer closed
Avg ticket YoY	—	+7.1%
Cash balance ($M)	$48.5	$56.0
Total debt ($M)	$272.4	$253.4

Non-GAAP notes (per company definitions): Adjusted metrics exclude items including stock-based comp, impairments, ERP/CRM costs, etc.; unearned/deferred revenue timing affected EPS and AOI as disclosed each quarter .

Guidance Changes

(Latest available – FY 2025; company has not issued FY 2026/Q1 2026 guidance yet)

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Aug 6, 2025)	Current Guidance (Nov 5, 2025)	Change
New Stores	FY 2025	~32	~32	Maintained
Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth	FY 2025	3.0%–5.0%	5.0%–6.0%	Raised
Net Revenue	FY 2025	$1.934B–$1.970B	$1.970B–$1.988B	Raised
Adjusted Operating Income	FY 2025	$85M–$95M	$92M–$98M	Raised
Adjusted Diluted EPS	FY 2025	$0.62–$0.70	$0.63–$0.71	Raised
Depreciation & Amortization	FY 2025	$93M–$96M	$91M–$93M	Lowered
Interest	FY 2025	$17M–$19M	$17M–$19M	Maintained
Tax Rate	FY 2025	27%	28%	Raised
Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	$87M–$90M	$80M–$85M	Lowered

Company reiterated the 53rd week adds ~$35M revenue and ~$3M AOI to FY25 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2025)	Current Period (Q1 2026)	Trend
Pricing and assortment upgrades	Transformation program, assortment/pricing refinements driving comps and AOI; brand modernization in flight	Pricing “playbook” becoming more surgical (lenses, bundles to $95), premium frames turning faster, avg ticket +7.1%	Not yet reported; company framed FY26 planning scenario at Investor Day (HSD revenue growth, ~100 bps AOI expansion)	Improving
Managed care/customer mix	Managed care strength cited in comps	Managed care traffic comps approaching low-teens; targeting progressives/outside Rx	Not yet reported	Strengthening
CRM/marketing & brand	America’s Best brand relaunch “Every Eye Deserves Better” communicated; modernization outlined	Launched: unaided awareness up ~19%; CRM journeys show higher engagement	Not yet reported	Improving
Smart glasses (Meta)	—	Pilot in 50 stores exceeding expectations; expanding to +250 stores in Q4	Not yet reported	Early positive
Doctor supply/remote exams	—	Doctor coverage healthy; remote/hybrid scaling, >70% of locations enabled (state constraints apply)	Not yet reported	Stable/leveragable
Tariffs/macro	Risks acknowledged in outlook	Risks reiterated; included in guide	Not yet reported	Ongoing risk

Management Commentary

“Our merchandise strategy is working, our associates are embracing new selling techniques, and our new America’s Best branding is resonating with consumers.” (CEO) .
“We are now looking toward a more sophisticated era of pricing… In the fourth quarter, we’re taking our next set of pricing actions on lenses, lens add-ons, and our bundle offer… moving… to a clean and simple $95 price point.” (CEO) .
“Adjusted SG&A… leveraged 10 bps despite ongoing headwinds in healthcare costs… Adjusted operating margin increased 90 bps to 4.1%.” (CFO on Q3) .
“We now expect revenue of $1.97–$1.99B… adjusted operating income of $92–$98M, and adjusted EPS of $0.63–$0.71…” (CFO) .

Q&A Highlights

Pricing cadence and 2026 contribution: Q4 lens/bundle actions are more surgical; pricing contribution in 2026 expected to be broadly similar to 2025, with mix (progressives/managed care/outside Rx) also lifting ticket (CFO noted Q3 average ticket +7.1%) .
Managed care penetration: North Star is ~50% (entered year ~40%); managed care comps growing low double digits .
Brand/CRM traction: America’s Best unaided awareness up ~19%; CRM journeys improving engagement and appointment flows .
Remote exams and doctor capacity: >70% of locations remote-enabled; doctor recruiting/retention strong; state rules limit 100% penetration .
Health care costs/incentives: Elevated healthcare costs persisted in Q3 and are assumed in Q4; incentive comp investment to normalize leverage in 2026 as behaviors baseline .

Estimates Context

Q1 2026 consensus: Revenue $547.5M (6 ests); Primary EPS $0.42 (7 ests).*
FY 2026 consensus: Revenue $2.075B (10 ests); Primary EPS $0.92 (11 ests).*
Context vs actuals: Consensus Q1 2026 revenue is above Q3/Q2 actuals ($487.3M/$486.4M), and above Q1 2025 actual ($510.3M), suggesting expectations for continued top-line growth on pricing/mix and traffic in targeted cohorts .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Set-up into Q1 2026: Company enters 2026 with raised FY25 guidance, improving comps/margins, and multi-year pricing/assortment and CRM initiatives that management says are gaining traction .
Watch comp composition: Managed care/progressives/outside Rx segments are driving mix and pricing power; cash-pay remains softer but is showing trade-up behavior to premium frames/lenses .
Gross margin/COGS line: Cost-of-revenue mix and optometrist cost leverage supported Q3 gross margin gains; replication in Q1 2026 versus consensus will be a key stock reaction variable .
Healthcare cost headwind: Elevated health costs pressured flow-through and are assumed in near-term outlook—monitor for easing in 2026 planning .
SG&A leverage and cost program: Management continues to pursue multi-year cost optimization; capex was trimmed for FY25 (timing), implying disciplined investment through the transformation .
Emerging vectors: Smart glasses (Meta) rollout (pilot results ahead of expectations) and in-store digital selling tools could support premium mix and conversion over time .
Near-term catalyst: Q1 2026 print versus S&P Global consensus on revenue/EPS and any early FY26 framework (comp algorithm, margin expansion trajectory, and pricing roadmap) should drive shares.*

Documents for Q1 2026 (8-K 2.02, earnings call transcript, press releases) were not available as of Nov 20, 2025 despite exhaustive searches of the company IR site and document feeds; analysis references Q2/Q3 2025 filings/press releases/transcript and investor day materials for trajectory and set-up - - - .

National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary