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FM

FORD MOTOR CO (F)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue was $40.7B, adjusted EBIT $1.0B, GAAP diluted EPS $0.12 and adjusted EPS $0.14; Ford suspended FY25 guidance due to tariff uncertainty despite underlying progress on cost and quality .
  • Results broadly beat Wall Street on revenue, EPS and EBITDA versus S&P Global consensus; strength came from cost improvements and pricing, while planned launch-related downtime and tariff impacts weighed on margins; guidance was withdrawn with explicit tariff headwinds of gross ~$2.5B and net ~$1.5B for 2025 discussed on the call .
  • Segment mix: Ford Pro delivered $1.309B EBIT (8.6% margin) on $15.2B revenue; Model e losses narrowed to $(849)M on $1.2B revenue; Ford Blue EBIT was $96M on $21.0B revenue, pressured by lower volumes and FX .
  • Ford entered Q2 with $27B cash and $45B liquidity; renewed $18B corporate credit facilities, supporting flexibility to invest and manage macro/tariff dynamics .
  • Key stock narrative catalysts: suspension of guidance tied to tariffs; demonstrated cost discipline and quality progress; Pro software/services scaling; clearer EV capital reallocation and Level 3 ADAS roadmap .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We delivered $1 billion in EBIT exceeding our expectation of roughly breakeven for the quarter, driven by continued progress on cost and strong net pricing in North America” (CFO) .
  • Ford Pro remained resilient: $1.309B EBIT (8.6% margin); paid subscriptions reached 675,000 (+4% q/q), with strong demand in Super Duty chassis cabs and Transit wagons .
  • Quality and cost execution: third straight quarter of YoY cost improvement excluding tariffs; warranty and parts purchase pricing were positives vs plan (CEO, CFO) .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue down 5% YoY and wholesales down 7% due to planned plant shutdowns for launches and inventory rebalancing; adjusted EBIT margin compressed to 2.5% (from 6.5% prior year) .
  • Tariffs prompted suspension of FY25 guidance; management cited potential industry-wide supply chain disruption and policy uncertainty (tariffs, offsets, retaliatory actions, tax/emissions policy) .
  • Ford Blue EBIT fell to $96M from $901M YoY on volume declines and adverse FX; Ford Pro margins halved to 8.6% from 16.7% YoY (pricing normalization, downtime) .

Financial Results

Consolidated performance vs prior year and prior quarter

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$42.8 $48.2 $40.7
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)$0.33 $0.45 $0.12
Adjusted EPS (Diluted) ($)$0.49 $0.39 $0.14
Adjusted EBIT ($USD Billions)$2.8 $2.1 $1.0
Adjusted EBIT Margin (%)6.5% 4.4% 2.5%
Net Income Margin (%)3.1% 3.8% 1.2%
Cash from Operations ($USD Billions)$1.4 $3.0 $3.7
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($USD Billions)$(0.5) $0.7 $(1.5)

Consensus vs actual

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)0.4369*0.3240*0.0213*
Primary EPS Actual (Adjusted EPS, $)0.49 0.39 0.14
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)$41.47*$42.83*$35.79*
Revenue Actual ($USD Billions)$42.78 $48.21 $40.66
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)$4.05*$2.84*$1.53*
EBITDA Actual ($USD Billions)$2.714 $2.90 [functions.GetEstimates]$1.778

Consensus values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment performance

SegmentQ1 2024Q1 2025
Ford Blue Revenue ($B)$21.8 $21.0
Ford Blue EBIT ($M)$901 $96
Ford Blue EBIT Margin (%)4.1% 0.5%
Model e Revenue ($B)$0.1 $1.2
Model e EBIT ($M)$(1,327) $(849)
Model e EBIT Margin (%)N/M (68.4%)
Ford Pro Revenue ($B)$18.0 $15.2
Ford Pro EBIT ($M)$3,006 $1,309
Ford Pro EBIT Margin (%)16.7% 8.6%
Ford Credit EBT ($M)$326 $580

KPIs and balance sheet

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
Wholesale Units (000)1,045 971
Ford Pro Paid Subscriptions (000)650† 675
Cash ($B)$28.0+ $27.0
Liquidity ($B)~$47.0 $45.0
Cash from Operations ($B)$1.4 $3.7
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($B)$(0.5) $(1.5)

† Year-end 2024 paid subscriptions “nearly 650k”; used for directional context . + “Over $28B in cash” at year-end; Q1 specific cash $27B cited .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITFY 2025 (as of Feb 5, 2025)$7.0–$8.5B ——
Adjusted EBITFY 2025 (as of May 5, 2025)—Guidance suspended Withdrawn
Adjusted EBITFY 2025 (as of Jul 30, 2025)—$6.5–$7.5B; net tariff headwind ≈$2B Reinstated lower range vs prior
Adjusted Free Cash FlowFY 2025 (Feb 5)$3.5–$4.5B ——
Adjusted Free Cash FlowFY 2025 (May 5)—Guidance suspended Withdrawn
Adjusted Free Cash FlowFY 2025 (Jul 30)—$3.5–$4.5B Reinstated (maintained)
Capital SpendingFY 2025 (Feb 5)$8–$9B ——
Capital SpendingFY 2025 (May 5)—Guidance suspended Withdrawn
Capital SpendingFY 2025 (Jul 30)—About $9B Reinstated (upper end)
Tariff Impact (net)FY 2025 (May 5)—Net adverse adjusted EBIT ≈$1.5B (gross ≈$2.5B) New headwind disclosed
Tariff Impact (net)FY 2025 (Jul 30)—Net ≈$2.0B (gross ≈$3.0B; offsets ≈$1.0B) Headwind increased

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q2 2025)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Tariffs & policyQ4: warned tariffs could be “devastating” if protracted; underlying FY25 guide excluded policy changes . Q2: reinstated FY25 guide with net tariff ≈$2B, gross ≈$3B .Suspended guidance; estimated gross ≈$2.5B, net ≈$1.5B; offsets include bonded carrier logistics, market optimization .Higher clarity of headwinds, active mitigations; headwind raised in Q2.
Cost & qualityQ4: committed to ≥$1B net cost reduction; pipeline 90% filled; back-half loaded . Q2: fourth straight YoY cost improvement; material/warranty progress .Beat breakeven expectation on cost/pricing; warranty and material costs better vs plan .Positive momentum; benefits accruing through 2H25.
Ford Pro software/servicesQ4: services EBIT mix 13%; target 20% . Q2: 17% TTM; subs 757k (+24% YoY); ARPU +24% .Subscriptions 675k (+4% q/q); strong demand in core products .Scaling steadily toward 20% EBIT mix.
EV strategy & capital allocationQ4: pivot to affordable EVs; hybrids/EREVs; cancel/postpone some programs; BOSK battery investments . Q2: reallocated capital toward Pro; next-gen EV “Model T moment”; LFP in Marshall with PTC .Model e loss narrowed; U.S. retail EV sales +15% supported by “Power Promise” home charging program .Focus on mix/profitability; next-gen EVs targeted; European EV launches scaling.
ADAS/Level 3Q4: BlueCruise >300M hands-free miles; L3 “around the corner”; evaluating partnerships . Q2: BlueCruise miles up; L3 high-speed highway in development .BlueCruise usage rising; Level 3 on track; architecture consolidation (FNV3) to improve cost .Execution progressing; cost-effective architectures.
Supply chain risksQ2: highlighted recall FSA costs and mitigation, OTA cost advantages .Rare earth import complexity; potential disruptions; FX headwinds .Elevated vigilance; process improvements offset.

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We beat our original expectation for the quarter…before tariff-related impacts, we are on track within our original full year guidance” .
  • CFO: “We delivered $1 billion in EBIT…third consecutive quarter of year-over-year cost improvement, excluding tariffs” .
  • COO: “We remain on track to deliver $1B net cost reductions this year excluding tariffs…warranty spikes during launch are now at industry-leading levels” .
  • CFO on tariffs: “Gross cost ≈$2.5B…roughly half parts and half imported vehicles…net adverse EBIT ≈$1.5B including ≈$1B offsets” .
  • CEO on ADAS: “We are on track in Level 3…we want a fully functioning Level 3 high speed highway application” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tariff breakdown and offsets: management detailed composition (parts vs vehicles), included steel/aluminum pricing, and outlined $1B market-factor offsets; MSRP credit assumptions included in gross tariff headwind .
  • Inventory and pricing: industry SAAR expected ~15.5M in 2H; net pricing ~flat for full year; Ford’s footprint offers flexibility to pursue share if profitable .
  • Supply chain risk: potential disruption linked to rare earth imports and policy volatility; monitoring competitive response .
  • Model e trajectory: best quarter of the year expected for Model e; margin improvements from European launches and material cost pull-aheads .
  • ADAS roadmap: BlueCruise miles and usage rising; Level 3 targeted for high-speed highway; considering L4 service opportunities via Ford Pro .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $40.66B vs $35.79B* (beat), adjusted EPS $0.14 vs $0.021* (beat), EBITDA $1.78B vs $1.53B* (beat). Q4 2024 and Q1 2024 also modest beats on EPS and revenue . Consensus values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Tariffs are the swing factor: guidance withdrawal underscores policy risk; management quantified gross/net headwinds and outlined actionable offsets (pricing, logistics, sourcing) .
  • Cost/quality momentum is real: warranty and material costs trending better; adjusted EBIT achieved despite planned downtime—sets up 2H improvement as cost programs ramp .
  • Ford Pro remains the profit engine: services/software scaling toward 20% of EBIT, supporting durability through cycles; near-term pricing normalization in vans is monitored .
  • EV strategy more capital-disciplined: Model e losses narrowing with European launches; reallocation toward Pro and next-gen EVs with LFP batteries and PTC support .
  • Liquidity and dividends provide downside protection: $27B cash and $45B liquidity; Q2 regular dividend maintained at $0.15/share .
  • Tactical posture: expect mix optimization, disciplined inventory/pricing, and selective share gains where Ford’s U.S. footprint provides advantages .
  • Watch Q2 update: Ford plans guidance update in Q2 (already reinstated on Jul 30 with lower EBIT range and explicit tariff headwind) and progress on next-gen EV platform/ADAS .

Additional referenced press releases for Q1 2025

  • Dividend declaration: $0.15/share regular dividend payable June 2; record date May 12 .
  • Earnings schedule communications (context only): Ford to report Q1 results on May 5 and call details .