Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- Management is optimistic about the company's trajectory and future growth, with strong interest from talent, indicating future potential. CEO Steve Gunby stated, "We're excited about the quarter. We're excited about the half year more fundamentally. We're excited about the trajectory of this business."
- The company has a growing cash position and expects cash to continue to rise. Management is committed to using the cash wisely to drive long-term shareholder value through organic growth investments, strategic acquisitions, or opportunistic capital returns to shareholders. CFO Ajay Sabherwal said, "We expect cash to continue to rise... we have more than enough capital to keep investing in the right organic growth... over any period of time, we have returned capital to shareholders but do so opportunistically."
- Strong demand for non-M&A-related antitrust services is continuing, indicating a robust pipeline in that area. Ajay Sabherwal mentioned, "It has legs. It is continuing... the matters are continuing and new matters emerge."
- The company expects margin contraction in the second half of the year, driven by increased hiring costs, bonuses, and higher direct costs, which could pressure earnings.
- Restructuring revenues are expected to remain flat, as default rates are not expected to rise, and liability management activities are favoring investment banks over FTI Consulting, limiting growth in this segment.
- The company is making significant investments in hiring senior professionals, which may not generate immediate returns and could negatively impact margins and earnings in the near term due to associated costs and uncertainties around their effectiveness.
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EPS Guidance and Margin Outlook
Q: Should we anticipate margin pressure in H2?
A: Management expects slight margin contraction in the second half due to increased hiring, particularly in the third quarter, which will impact direct costs. Bonuses typically pick up towards the end of the year, further affecting margins. They believe SG&A expenses likely hit their high watermark in Q2. Revenue remains the key factor, and although last year's Q4 was exceptional, they don't model that as a norm. -
Economic Consulting Margins
Q: Does strong Economic Consulting change margin outlook?
A: Despite strong revenue growth and higher margins in Q2, management doesn't change their margin outlook for Economic Consulting. They advise adding the first two quarters to assess margins, noting that deferred revenues and costs incurred earlier contributed to high-margin EBITDA in Q2. Competitive pressures persist across the business, and large matters can come and go, causing fluctuations. -
Restructuring Business Outlook
Q: Any change in bankruptcy market trends?
A: Management sees no indication from rating agencies that speculative debt default rates will rise, marking a change and consensus on that front. They observe more liability management instead of operational restructuring, which favors investment banks over their services. They assume Q2 levels of restructuring continue but note that landing one or two big matters could significantly alter projections. -
Hiring Plans and Impact on EBITDA
Q: Can headcount growth increase EBITDA?
A: Management maintains high growth aspirations and does not expect new hires to be less productive over time. While a surge in hiring may have short-term effects on margins, they anticipate revenue growth will compensate. Historically, they've maintained EBITDA percentages while growing headcount, leading to increased EBITDA. -
Cash Levels and Capital Allocation
Q: How will you deploy excess cash?
A: Management expects cash levels to continue rising and plans to pay down debt first. They have ample capital for organic growth and strict standards for acquisitions. They return capital to shareholders opportunistically but stress the importance of using cash wisely to drive long-term shareholder value. Sometimes cash accumulates until the right opportunity arises. -
Antitrust Business Demand
Q: Outlook for non-M&A antitrust demand?
A: Management states that non-M&A-related antitrust demand continues and has staying power. They are not linking this trend to elections but note that new matters are emerging consistently. The quarter stood out for increased M&A-related antitrust activities. -
Compensation Changes in FLC Segment
Q: Can you explain the compensation changes?
A: The company implemented a more variable compensation plan where meeting certain revenue thresholds leads to bonuses. Additionally, employees receive a percentage of revenue from specific types of work. This approach is similar to plans in other segments like Corporate Finance. While fixed compensation reductions accompany this change, the impact will be smaller in subsequent quarters. -
Potential Election Impact
Q: How might elections affect your business?
A: Management believes no one can accurately predict election outcomes or subsequent policy changes. They focus on building the business regardless of political shifts, noting that different administrations and global events historically have not hindered their growth when they've done the right things. -
Seasonal December Slowdown
Q: Which segments feel December slowdown most?
A: All segments typically experience a slowdown in December due to client and staff vacations, unless crises demand attention. Last year's exceptional Q4 is not considered the norm for modeling purposes. -
Group Hires vs. Individual Hires
Q: Prospects for group hires vs. individuals?
A: Due to non-compete and non-solicit agreements, senior people often cannot bring their entire teams when they join. Occasionally, if restrictions are lifted, group hires happen. Typically, they hire senior individuals, and over time, junior staff may join separately or after restrictions expire. Large group hires of, say, 80 people at once are rare.