FC
FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ (FCNCA)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Adjusted diluted EPS was $37.79, modestly above Wall Street consensus*, while GAAP diluted EPS was $34.47; headline net interest income fell sequentially to $1.66B and NIM compressed 6 bps to 3.26% as lower earning-asset yields more than offset declining deposit costs .
- Deposits rose $4.10B (10.7% annualized) and exceeded guidance, driven by $3.10B growth in the Direct Bank and $1.35B in the General Bank; loans increased $1.14B (3.3% annualized), led by Commercial Bank and SVB Commercial .
- Management lowered full-year 2025 headline net interest income guidance to $6.55–$6.95B from $6.6–$7.0B and raised deposit guidance to $163–$168B; they reiterated plans to manage CET1 (ex-SLA) to 10.5–11% by end of Q1’26 and signaled another buyback in H2’25 .
- Operating backdrop: asset-sensitive balance sheet in a rate-cutting environment; stable credit (NCO ratio 0.41% at lower end of guidance), with ongoing stress in office CRE and SVB investor-dependent portfolios; narrative catalysts include deposit growth upside, buybacks, and SVB momentum as VC activity gradually improves .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Deposit growth beat guidance: total deposits +$4.10B q/q, with strong elasticity in the Direct Bank despite lower rates; noninterest-bearing mix rose to 25.6% and cost of deposits fell 14 bps q/q to 2.32% .
- Solid loan growth: balances +$1.14B q/q, driven by Commercial Bank industry verticals (Tech, Media & Telecom; Healthcare) and Global Fund Banking in SVB Commercial .
- Capital return and liquidity: $613M buybacks (302,683 Class A shares) and liquid assets +$3.45B to $62.79B; proactive $1.25B senior/sub debt issuance to optimize capital stack .
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What Went Wrong
- NII and NIM pressure: headline NII down $46M q/q; NIM down 6 bps to 3.26% as lower loan and overnight yields outweighed falling deposit costs; loan accretion declined, pressuring NIM .
- Adjusted noninterest income fell $37M q/q, driven by negative fair value changes in client derivatives and an HFS asset write-down; adjusted rental income softened on higher maintenance costs .
- Ongoing portfolio stress: elevated losses concentrated in general office CRE and investor-dependent; equipment finance improved but remains a watch area; allowance ratio eased to 1.19% as mix shifts to lower-loss GFB .
Financial Results
Segment and Balance Sheet Highlights
Key Credit and Capital KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “Our first quarter financial results were solid... deposit growth... Credit remained stable... We maintained strong capital and liquidity positions... While we acknowledge uncertainty in the current environment, we enter it from a position of strength” .
- CFO: “First quarter financial metrics were aligned with our guidance… adjusted EPS $37.79… headline NIM 3.26%… adjusted efficiency ratio 59.6%. As anticipated, headline NII was down… paced by lower yields and accretion” .
- On FDIC SLA termination: “Given the low likelihood of reaching the $5B loss threshold… and operational complexity… we determined the shared-loss agreement was no longer warranted” .
- Capital targets and buybacks: “CET1 (ex-SLA) 12.19%… manage toward 10.5–11% by end of Q1’26… contemplates an additional share repurchase plan in the second half of 2025” .
Q&A Highlights
- Buybacks and CET1 trajectory: Management expects completion of the current repurchase and to implement another plan in H2’25 to move CET1 (ex-SLA) toward 10.5–11% by end-Q1’26 .
- FDIC purchase money note: No payoff expected in 2025; potential paydown in 2026 if forward curve allows; continue asset-sensitive posture .
- SVB total client funds: Growth persisted despite volatility; average balances rising; pipeline remains robust; deposit flows sensitive to VC investment activity .
- Tariff exposure: Monitoring sectors like textiles/footwear/retail/autos; too early to quantify impacts; no behavior changes observed yet .
- NII/NIM under rate-cut scenarios: With three cuts, headline and ex-accretion NII up low-single digits by 4Q’25 exit; trough for NIM/NII expected H2’25; more cuts could push trough later .
- M&A appetite: Buybacks prioritized near term; M&A remains important long-term but no specific 2025 projections .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 EPS (Adjusted) vs Consensus: Actual $37.79 vs $37.69* → slight beat.
- Q1 2025 Revenue (Adjusted Net Revenue) vs Consensus: Actual $2.144B vs $2.217B* → miss.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Implications: EPS modestly beat despite NII/NIM pressure; revenue miss tied to lower adjusted noninterest income (client derivative FV, HFS write-down) and lower accretion . Near-term estimate revisions likely reflect lowered full-year NII guidance and maintained opex/NCO ranges .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Deposit growth upside and improving cost of funds support NIM stabilization as rate cuts pull through; Direct Bank elasticity and branch network strength are catalysts .
- Capital return continues: buybacks ($613M in Q1), with another plan contemplated in H2’25; CET1 (ex-SLA) targeted to 10.5–11% by end-Q1’26 .
- Asset sensitivity remains the core narrative; guided trough for NIM/NII in H2’25 under 3–4 cuts, with accretion declining as expected; trading setups hinge on rate path .
- Credit stable at low end of guidance (NCO 0.41%); stress concentrated (office CRE, investor-dependent) but reserves and diversification provide resilience .
- SVB Commercial momentum improves with rising client funds and GFB growth; sustained recovery depends on VC investment revival and macro clarity (tariffs) .
- Guidance: FY deposits raised; FY headline NII lowered; opex/tax/NCO ranges maintained—expect minor consensus recalibration toward lower NII, steady expense/tax .
- Near-term: focus on deposit mix shift, NIM trajectory, buyback cadence; medium-term: operational efficiency and Category 3 readiness drive ROTCE/efficiency normalization post trough .