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    FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ (FCNCA)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 18, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$2082.60Last close (Oct 23, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$1950.00Open (Oct 24, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-132.60(-6.37%)
    • First Citizens BancShares is executing a substantial share repurchase program of $3.5 billion, indicating confidence in their capital position and commitment to returning value to shareholders, with potential for additional buybacks in the second half of 2025.
    • Despite industry headwinds, the SVB segment's deposits remained stable, and the company continues to add new clients and see clients return, demonstrating strong execution and positioning for future growth when investment activity recovers.
    • The company has substantial excess liquidity of approximately $7-10 billion that can be redeployed to enhance earnings through debt repayment or investment in earning assets, providing flexibility for future growth.
    • Ongoing Net Interest Income and Margin Compression Expected Until Second Half of 2025: The company anticipates that net interest income and net interest margin will continue to face pressure due to their asset-sensitive position in a declining interest rate environment, with troughs expected in the second half of 2025.
    • Continued Elevated Credit Losses and Stress in Certain Portfolios: Management expects net charge-offs to remain elevated, particularly in the general office, investor-dependent, and small ticket leasing portfolios, with losses anticipated to stay high for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.
    • Muted Growth in SVB Segment Due to Diminished Venture Investment Activity: The SVB segment is experiencing flat deposits and lower loan growth due to decreased venture capital investment and ongoing cash burn by clients. Until investment activity picks up, the segment may continue to face growth challenges.
    1. Net Interest Income Outlook
      Q: Can you discuss NII guidance and accretion outlook?
      A: Accretion income will continue to decrease as shorter-term loans pay off. In Q3, net interest margin benefited from accretion by 20 basis points , down 8 basis points from the prior quarter. Accretion income dropped from $140 million to $101 million , expected to be around $90 million in Q4. We anticipate net interest income ex accretion to decline mid- to high single digits in the low scenario and mid- to low single digits in the high scenario by the end of Q4 '24. Net interest margin is expected to drop from 3.33% to the low 3.20%s in the high scenario and to the low 3.10%s in the low scenario.

    2. Share Buyback Plans
      Q: Will the elevated pace of buybacks continue?
      A: We plan to utilize the entire $3.5 billion buyback authorization. Through the end of the year, you can assume a similar pace to what you've seen so far, then slowing down next year to reach that amount by Q3. If earnings continue to outstrip risk-weighted asset growth, we would consider an additional repurchase plan in the back half of 2025.

    3. Timing of NII and NIM Bottoming
      Q: When will NII and NIM bottom and begin growing?
      A: We expect net interest income and margin to trough in the second half of 2025, regardless of the rate scenario. This depends heavily on both the magnitude and timing of rate cuts and balance sheet growth.

    4. SVB Loan Growth Prospects
      Q: What is the outlook for SVB loan growth?
      A: As the market recovers, we anticipate loans and deposits will grow at SVB. Lower rates and the expectation of lower rates could be a catalyst for growth. There's nothing structural causing the decline; it was related to payoffs towards the end of the quarter. Average loan balances were higher than last quarter.

    5. Competitiveness in Capital Call Lending
      Q: Are higher repayments due to competition?
      A: Swings in capital call lending balances are due to borrowers keeping advances out for shorter durations in a higher rate environment and muted investment activity. Average balance growth continues to trend positive. While there are new entrants, we remain confident due to our long-standing fund banking practice and experienced team.

    6. SVB Deposit Trends and Outlook
      Q: Do you expect SVB deposit flows to pick up?
      A: Deposit balances were flat due to diminished venture investment activity, roughly $38 billion in the quarter , and increased cash burn. With the first 50 basis point rate cut and potential for more, we hope this will unstick the market, unlocking the substantial $328 billion in "dry powder" waiting to be invested. We remain well-positioned for when investment activity picks up.

    7. Floating Rate Loan Exposure
      Q: What is the exact percentage of floating-rate loans?
      A: In the total loan portfolio, 64% is variable and 36% is fixed. The majority of variable loans are tied to SOFR with a spot rate around 6.90%.

    8. Excess Liquidity Redeployment
      Q: Is there excess liquidity that could be redeployed?
      A: We have approximately $7 billion to $10 billion in excess liquidity that we could potentially redeploy to pay down debt or invest in earning assets. We manage liquidity conservatively and will look to take advantage in the future.

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