Ferrovial - Q1 2023
May 11, 2023
Transcript
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Good afternoon, everybody. This is Silvia Ruiz speaking, and I would like to welcome you to Ferrovial's conference call to discuss the financial results for the first quarter of 2023. As a reminder, both the results report and presentation are available to you on our website. I am joined here today by Ernesto López Mozo, our CFO, and by the CFOs of the different business divisions. If you have any questions, you may ask them through the forum included in the webcast. During the Q&A session at the end of this call, we will be reading out your questions and who they are from. With this, I will hand over to Ernesto. Ernesto, the floor is yours.
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Yeah. Thanks, Silvia, hello everyone for joining us for the first quarter results. Moving to the first slide, I mean, we have the overview of what we believe is a very strong quarter. In terms of performance of the main assets, you have in toll roads solid traffic increase versus the first quarter last year, managed lanes posted a strong revenue growth. Airports also showed a strong traffic recovery. You've seen Heathrow already the rest as well. Construction profitability is in line with the same quarter of 2022. In terms of cash position, I mean, we don't have any significant cash consumption in the quarter despite having the seasonality in construction. We invested and remunerated shareholders.
I mean, that was the main components of the EUR 142 million cash outflow that we saw in the quarter. We'll have more detail in coming slides. In terms of the reverse merger and dual listing, we had more than 93% of the quorum back in the corporate organization. In terms of the separation rights period, we are almost done. I mean, it will finish next week on May 18th. When the transaction is over, I mean, when the reverse merger is completed, we expect to repurchase the hybrid bond as we announced. It's worth mentioning that the scrip dividend payments will take place after the execution of this reverse merger. Moving into ESG, we presented the annual report on climate strategy to the AGM as well for advisory vote.
It was approved by more than 90% of the quorum. This report mentions the ongoing measures and initiatives that we are taking to reduce emissions related to our activity. At the same time, offering more sustainable mobility and infrastructure solutions helps drive profitable growth while we improve life of the communities where we invest. Regarding the social initiatives related to local community development, Ferrovial signed its annual social aid program that will improve the living conditions of more than 52,000 people by 2023. Also, during the first quarter of 2023, Ferrovial has been included once again in the S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook of 2023. It recognizes companies with the highest performance in sustainability.
Moving to the slide on toll roads, we see the strong growth from the U.S. assets. I mean, revenues growing by 37% and EBITDA 41.1% in like for like terms. Here, I mean, the U.S. assets revenue growth quarter-on-quarter, or this quarter versus the same quarter last year was more than 50%. The EBITDA growth of this asset was more than 47%. We will review the first quarter since opening of the I-66. We have to remind you also that we have important assets under development, the NTE 3C in particular. It has about 6.7 miles, that would be an increase of 66% to the existing 35W.
This concession goes all the way through 2061, the opening is scheduled for September 2023. You can imagine that we are doing our earnest to try to accelerate that. Please remember that we have a potential dividend distribution after opening. I mean, all these roads have been operating. I mean, the rest of certified roads has been operating for some years, and the cash accumulated could be distributable after opening of Segment 3C. We have invested EUR 53 million equities to date in euros in equity in this segment, and we have EUR 28 million pending. Also, as we mentioned the first quarter, we are looking at the ultimate configuration on the NT.
This is an expansion of additional general purposes and managed lanes linked to revenue performance. The construction period should go from 2023 to 2027. I mean, it's all fully debt financed. Okay, we move to the next slide. We look at the 407. You already saw the results of these assets. I mean, we will review them slightly, we'll also talk about the area and the long-term prospects that it has. In terms of traffic, very important growth vis-a-vis last year affected by Omicron. We have VKTs growing more than 28%, revenues and EBITDA growing all of them around 25%.
Of course, it keeps the high EBITDA margins that is usual in this type of business more than 82%. Okay. The average revenue per trip is similar. It's like decline vis-a-vis the first quarter of 2022. That was affected by the reversal on some loyalty schemes, and this an effect that gets diluted along the year. In terms of dividends, even though there was no dividend distribution the first quarter of 2023 or in the first quarter of 2022, the board announced a CAD 150 million Canadian dividend in the second quarter to be paid in the second quarter of 2023.
When we look into the ETR performance and, I mean, we go back to the... Yeah, to this slide. When we look into the traffic performance, we see gradual recovery along the quarter and it has to do, of course, also with the weather improvement, the seasonality and also more of return to the office enforcement or let's say the flexibility policies that were in place being more enforced and less relaxed than they were. We see, and we will review that in the next slide, more presence in the office. I mean, anticipating question, April, shows this improved trend.
I mean, the reason for the worst performance at the beginning of the year is due to the normal seasonality that is accentuated by the high workplace flexibility. I mean, people not only stay at home during the bad weather situation, but also maybe a couple of days or three after the storm has passed. In terms of the Highway 401, I mean, there was also an impact in terms of the widening of the 401 being completed in December 2022. We have an impact that, by the way, we anticipated when we released models some time ago now in 2017. It's in line with the expectations we had. Okay, we move to the next slide.
Please we see some interesting data about the performance in the region. I mean, the first thing on the top left-hand corner, we see that the performance of traffic between the 407 and the main alternatives is pretty similar, right? I mean, there's no major issue with capture rate. I mean, probably the people using now the 407 have the natural route or route, as you wish, in the 407. This bodes well for the potential tariff increases.
In terms of the work from home or presence in the office, I mean, we have the graph that we've been showing that keeps ticking up, and we see a 47% presence in the office. Again, well, the average hides performance of different sectors, right? I mean, we have small and medium enterprises well above this, probably, I don't know, they could be in levels north of 70%, 80%. We'd have an average that is probably more in line with public institutions, I mean, government employment. Much below this, we have sectors like the financial sector. It's worth keeping an eye on this sector.
We have on the, I mean, just above that graph, some news from RBC, for instance, the financial sector seems to be providing more, let's say strength to the message that people have to return to the office, right? I mean, gradual improvement messages are clearly along the same line. In terms of, also housing starts development of the region, we still see that housing starts tend to happen more along the regions where the 407 is rather than in downtown Toronto. That's obvious for capacity reasons. Okay, if we move to the next slide. We get now into the Dallas Fort Worth area, with a very strong performance that keeps exceeding our expectations.
Of course, you know that the soft cap, I mean, is lifted with inflation every year. I mean, you have, I mean, revenue per transaction going up above that. That shows the interesting dynamics and the freedom of pricing that the asset has. Of course, it also shows that there's traffic situations where you have to price above the soft cap. All growing pretty well. Let me remind you that 35W that seems to be lagging is affected by construction works. There's no reason to believe that when the asset reopens, people won't come back to the corridor.
And also worth mentioning the performance of LBJ, and not only growing against last year, but also we saw a good performance in March, just around the 2% drop versus March 2019. I mean, there's increased activity in the region and our network is in the middle of where the action happens. If we move to the next slide, please. We see more news about the long-term prospects of the area, right? Starting with the top right-hand corner, we see the movement of headquarters to Texas and in particular to Dallas, Fort Worth
I mean, you know that lots of companies are moving into Texas, but Dallas, Fort Worth is reaching more than 45% of that. That trend keeps going and it, of course, helps also population growth into. If we look into the bottom part of the map, even though the map could be a little bit old because it's 2018. We have the projection of growth estimates, and one of the areas of development is exactly above the NTE 35W. You see here all the segments, even 3C that is painted in yellow. It's not only this, the dense areas, also an important part of the growth is happening north of that.
Also in terms of, I mean, the general economy, you see that Texas is number one in the U.S. for job growth. It's growing at a faster rate versus the U.S. in every major industry. Well, more jobs added here than all other states over the last year. The area keeps growing and is expected to continue a trend of economic performance and population performance. Okay, if we move to the next slide, please. Okay, here we start with the with the I-66, and here we'll have a combination of data that are typical of a ramp up situation.
I mean, if I may say, how is this trading compared to our expectations? Well, January is expected below, quite below. February better than January. March is approaching our by the expectations. April is doing better than March, right? I guess that it's normal to see this kind of ramp up, and the main indicators that drive the business plan are as valid or more than the... We are really cautiously optimistic on this, on this asset. I mean, things that weren't into our business plan is the wealth in the region. You can see all these yellow bars that are surrounded by a dotted line. If you can match them in the map, you see that also some areas are circled with dotted lines.
You see that there's a lot of wealth in the northwest of the asset and also inside the gateway and all these kind of feeds the performance of the asset. Also here, we're seeing interesting headquarter moves to the area like Boeing, Raytheon Technologies and Amentum. There's good development in the area and the long-term prospects keep being very healthy. We'll keep you updating. As I said, this is typical ramp up performance. We are really looking forward to this asset. If we move to the next slide, please. Okay, here we have the I-77. The I-77 that is often overlooked by many investors keep beating even our best expectations by a lot, right?
Transactions grow up a lot, 24%. I mean, revenue per transaction is like 38% above last year's same quarter. Of course, that goes into an even higher EBITDA growth. The asset and the area keep growing and looking forward to more developments in this one. If we move to the next one, please. Okay, here we go to Heathrow conference call. Here clearly, Heathrow is outperforming other airports in terms of traffic growth. It's very close to pre-pandemic levels. Probably, I mean, the limitation then going forward is more about operational capacity of airlines more than underlying demand.
This is something that is important it gets addressed for the summer. In any case, Heathrow has raised the traffic expectations, and now the range is from 70 million-78 million passengers. Clearly the outlook is strong. Demand that clearly leisure was there, and it's even increasing. It's also being joined back by that good recovery in business travel. Also what I mentioned, leisure was more outbound leisure out of the U.K. into other destinations. Now we also have good performance of inbound traffic and some regions that had travel restrictions are going back to travel. The forecast has been increased and looking forward to the performance of the asset along the year.
This has also been reflected by the rating agencies. Last but not least, you know that Heathrow has asked for the right to appeal the CAA's decision. We should have the answer for the CMA if it's allowed to appeal next week. Several grounds where Heathrow is claiming to correct errors in the CAA settlement. Those are the COVID-related rapid adjustment, the weighted average cost of capital that, of course, has components in both equity and debt, and then the K factor incurred during the pandemic and also the CAPEX incentives model that has been proposed by the CAA.
Looking forward to this, and let's see if these factual errors are corrected. Some airlines have appealed as well, so we'll keep an eye on that. We are on the next slide already, and here we can review AGS, Dalaman, and New Terminal One. AGS also shows a strong growth, it's still not at the 2019 level, so it's lagging Heathrow on this regard, but clearly improving performance. Okay, looking forward to this market recovering and airlines renewing flights to this airport. In terms of Dalaman, I mean, quite encouraging that we saw performance better than 2019.
Of course, this is an asset that drives profitability between spring and mainly summer. The fact that you have a negative -1, it doesn't mean anything. The asset is outperforming and expected to continue to do better than our acquisition business plan. Looking forward also to see the development in the coming months of the asset. Regarding NTO, the project remains on schedule and also negotiation with the airlines for the slots for the opening in 2026. In terms of investment, EUR 83 million so far.
Okay, now we are in construction with this fast-moving presentation, profitability is in line with the first quarter of 2022. Revenues are growing in the different divisions. In terms of margin, Budimex clearly has a strong performance, keeps doing so, Webber has stable margins. We have the rest of Ferrovial Construction that right now is in a situation where we are still finalizing the works on I-25, I-66, all these big projects. They still keep overheads until those are finalized, that affects the profitability. Also, new works that have increased the backlog a lot. We don't recognize margin on early stages.
Also, of course, we have additional expenses preparing for bids like the SR 400, right? It's kind of on a situation of some mature contracts and some new ones that doesn't reflect what could be expected in the medium to long term of that division. In terms of the order book, still at very high levels, and we have EUR 1.5 billion of contracts that have not been included. In terms of performance, and we will review the cash performance later on, I mean, it has performed well on the back of some advanced payments of the Ontario Line.
I mean, this big project that was won at the end of last year, that also got some advanced payments, but you shouldn't expect any big signings with big advanced payments the remainder of the year. We still expect to consume cash here. Well, we confirmed the 3.5% EBIT margin for next year cumulative, right? It's in line with our expectations, still working on the conclusion of some important projects in the U.S. Okay, yes, going to cash, we close the net cash position at EUR 1.3 billion compared to EUR 1.4 billion roughly at the end of last year.
I mean, dividends from projects didn't play a role in this first quarter that.
Expected in terms of working capital, it performed well thanks to these advanced payments. We have some tax payments, mainly relating to Budimex, some cash we repatriated from Canada. Then of course, the main drivers of the cash consumption are investments and shareholder remuneration. I mean, in other financing costs, what you are starting to see is the high remuneration on the cash that we hold, helping to compensate the shareholder remuneration. If we move to the next slide, please. Well, looking ahead, you really need to bear in mind the growth in the toll road portfolio that will increase dividends. This is a very strong asset portfolio. The value creation that we've seen through pricing flexibility and look at the...
in particular at the long-term prospects of the of the area. In terms of the pipeline ahead, looking forward to a more visible merge lane pipeline. The corporate organization is on track after the support from shareholders in the general shareholder meeting. After that, we would be looking to apply for the U.S. listing that we mentioned. Of course, last but not least, we continue advancing on the decarbonization of our business. Okay. Thanks for bearing with us, and we open the Q&A session.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Ernesto. The Q&A session will begin shortly. Okay. First set of questions coming from Fernando Lafuente from Alantra. First question: What is the reason for the EUR 11 million negative EBITDA at the airports division?
Laura López (CFO)
Hello, this is Laura López, the CFO of Ferrovial Airports. Thanks Silvia, Fernando. The EBITDA negative at airports is driven by Dalaman and overheads. Dalaman is negative due to the seasonality. As far as Q1 is of peak season, summer starting in March. The OpEx is more linear through the year, through the quarter, while revenues are concentrated in peak season, March onwards. This negative trend of Dalaman EBITDA will revert in coming months.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question. 407 has not paid dividends in the first quarter, similar to 2022. Should we expect the 2022 payment pattern to be also applicable in 2023, for example, payments concentrated in Q3 and especially in Q4?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you, Fernando. This is Chema Velao, the CFO of Cintra. There's not a special pattern to pay dividends in 2023 or even 2022. The board decide to pay dividends when it's comfortable enough with the performance of the asset. We have the liquidity that we're considering that is necessary enough for the asset and for the rating agencies. Once, as you know, we can pay dividend every quarter. Once we comply with all the ratios and our contracts, we will pay dividends. We need to wait for the performance of the asset. It's important to see when we can issue debt this year and monitor the liquidity of the asset as well, and comply with our ratios and the different aspects of our contracts.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question. Also on the 407 ETR, EBITDA is up by 25% year-on-year in constant currency. Dividends were expected to evolve in line with operating performance. Why not approving a dividend with such a strong performance in the first quarter?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
It's EBITDA is up 25%. You're right. It's really good news for the asset. The performance of the asset is evolving well. We didn't approve a dividend in the first quarter. We preferred to wait till April for this CAD 150 million, basically because we wanted to see how the seasonality affect the first quarter because we didn't have any comparison, taking into account that 2022 was impacted by Omicron. You know, January was the first month with the impact of the 401 widening.
Considering that we have these two things to monitor during the first quarter, we thought that was more prudent to wait till April to pay CAD 150 million, which is very positive for the shareholders.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Last question from Fernando. What is the dividend outlook for the managed lanes for this year?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
For the moment we have the first quarter strong performance, as Ernesto mentioned. The trend is very positive. We expect that we continue in that way during the year. The dividend will evolve according to the traffic and the revenue performance for sure, and operating cash flows. One thing that is important to note here is, as Ernesto mentioned in his speech, that we are trying to accelerate the construction works in the 3C Segment. I'm talking about the 35 West. If we can meet our goal and accelerate this construction, it's likely that we will be able to pay a dividend, an important dividend in June.
I think this is the thing that we need to keep an eye on it. You know. This dividend is the accumulated money, accumulated cash flows since the end of the construction till now.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next set of questions coming from Elodie Rall from JP Morgan. First question: On the 407 ETR, you continue to expect trends to improve from here from return to the office. Ultimately, would you say there is likely a structural impact from COVID in this asset and that congestion will remain lower than pre-COVID? How does this impact your view on future tariff increase?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you, Elodie, for your question. Yeah, well, if we check the presentation on the graph with the % of office occupancy in downtown Toronto, the trend is positive. We are seeing how the employees are coming back to the office. We are seeing as different institutions are doing some kind of enforcement to their employees just to go to the office at least 3 days a week, you know, in this hybrid scheme that they implement a year ago. This has an impact for sure in the general mobility in the corridor, that increase the congestion and therefore, increase our traffic in our toll road. How can impact this in the tariff increase?
The tariff increase, as we always say, is a decision, an economic decision. We will raise the tariff when it makes economic sense. We are internally analyzing and monitoring all the patterns, and the traffic and the users patterns and how this return to the office evolve. According to this internal analysis, when we will see economic sense, we will raise it. The tariff is the only information that I can provide you.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Elodie. Is it fair to say that it would make more sense at this stage to wait until January 2024 now before increasing tariffs, given the computation of Schedule 22 would then be pushed to 2025?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you for your question again. You are right. You know, if we raise the toll rate in January 2024, we push the schedule, the Schedule 22 to 2025. As you know, we are, we can raise the toll whenever we want, you know, and could be in any time. It's only that we need to analyze internally if it makes economic sense. We are open to open any time. We are open to increase the toll rate any time.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next set of questions coming from Luis Prieto from Kepler Cheuvreux. Could you provide us with an idea of what would you expect the trend in monthly number of transactions to be for the I-66 in 2023? I guess what I'm trying to get is a feel for whether we should see continued and relevant increases from the 1.8, 1.8, and 2.2 registered in January, February, March, or if the 2.2 is sort of a stable monthly run rate for the time being.
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you, Luis. It's Chema again. What we are seeing in April is that we are continuing with the trend that we saw in the first quarter. It's the only information that I can provide you. That's, we are seeing a better than expected in April, a better than expected weather. It's good to note as well that just in April opened the construction work season in the rehab construction work season in the Highway 401. Thank you.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Luis. Although still down versus pre-pandemic levels, there seems to have been a significant improvement in LBJ traffic in March, minus 2.1%. Is this level sustainable, or is there any seasonal impact?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you, Luis, again, for your question. Yeah, this really good news, you know, in LBJ Express traffic with this -2.1% compared to 2019. The reason of this improvement is because we are seeing more employees return to the office. Thus, it's increasing the mobility in the area, the congestion, and for that reason, we are seeing this kind of improvement in this asset.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next set of questions coming from Nicolás Mora from Morgan Stanley. First question, how would you rate the I-66 performance versus the 2016 bond prospectus expectations for year one of operations, revenues of $129 million, 76% EBITDA margin, expected to do better on tariffs or worse on traffic?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you, Nicolás. In the case of the bond prospectus, you know, for comparison purpose, I don't know if it is the right one. First, because it's not an internal forecast, it's a forecast from an external source. Secondly, this based in a pre-pandemic forecast, you know. In order to compare with the current performance using this information, you need to normalize this forecast with a COVID impact at least.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Nicolás. Can you share color on the performance of LBJ in the first quarter? The asset had been struggling for three years and suddenly seems to be jumping off the charts on traffic.
José Maria Velao (CFO)
set has been struggling for 3 years. But as I said before, you know, we are seeing an improvement in the return to the office, and that's creating an increase in the mobility in the area and the congestion come back again in this asset and with a positive impact in the traffic
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Nicolás. Net working capital very strong. How big was the prepayment from the Ontario Line? Expecting more cash consumption on U.S. legacy projects during the second quarter, second half of 2023?
Iñaki Garcia (Management Team)
Hello, Nicolás. This is Iñaki García from Ferrovial Construction. Yes, I mean, the working capital was quite strong in construction, EUR 90 million, and out of that Ontario Line is about EUR 65. You know that this project is in the early stages, is still in the design phase and all of this is prepayments based on fulfilling the different milestones. Regarding the legacy projects and as mentioned in at the end of December and now by Ernesto, we expect cash consumption, but both projects are going to finish in this year.
Remember that the I-66, the managed lanes are open, but the purpose lanes are still finishing and of course, the lease of these projects will be paid off, no? On the other side, net-net, probably at the end of the year, if no big contracts with big advanced payments are probably, in total, I mean, there will be a cash consumption in construction. Thank you.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next set of questions coming from Marcin Wojtal from Bank of America. First question, what are the next steps you are taking to obtain a U.S. listing, and do you expect the process to be completed before the end of 2023?
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Thanks, Marcin. Well, you know, the first step is to get the reverse merger with the listing in the Netherlands and Spain. A prospectus would be filed for after that in for a listing in the U.S. with the SEC. I mean, we are on schedule, and therefore that should be completed before the end of the year. I mean, timing in terms of prospectuses is not only in our hand. Yeah, we should be done in the late fall.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Marcin. Can you confirm if the construction works on the JFK Terminal One project are on budget? Please remind us to what extent the risk of cost overruns has been transferred to third-party contractors?
Laura López (CFO)
Thanks, Marcin. This is Laura López. Progress of construction is being satisfactory. The project is on a schedule and on budget. Let me share with you some key construction milestones. The steel erection commenced on the first of May, and is planning to finalize for the entrance enclosure by the end of the year. The closure of T2 and demolition that started in January is planning to end by the third quarter of 2023. Comprehensive final designs conditionally been approved, and the team is working towards 100% design to be completed later in the year. We are confident. The majority of the cost is already compromised by the Guaranteed Maximum Price, the GMP, with AECOM Tishman. The contractor, AECOM Tishman, has an extensive experience working on projects for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and specifically in New York City.
Additionally, Ferrovial Construction is providing the PMO services, which is the oversight of the construction. We are confident that the construction is on budget. Hopeful answered your question.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Marcin. What in your views explain the lack of improvement in 407 ETR working day traffic in Q1 23 versus Q4 22, despite rising office occupancy in Toronto?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you for your question, Marcin. You have to take into account this, in this quarter we have two factors to consider, you know. The first one is the seasonality that, you know, that is has been deeper than we expected because of the flexibility in Upwork and the other one is the 401 widening. I think that the rising office occupancy in Toronto is having a positive impact. Probably we will see an improvement in the performance in the future because of that.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Last question from Marcin. Do you expect Heathrow to restart dividend distributions to its ultimate shareholders in the next 2 years?
Laura López (CFO)
Thanks, Marcin. Laura López again. No decision on when next dividend distribution will take place has been taken in current discussion. It will depend on PAC's evolution during summer and airlines resources and airport capacity to handle jointly with the CMA appeal outcome. There has been positive news regarding rating agencies that have confirmed their rating for Heathrow, and that improved their outlook to stable from negative. Also, there is positive impact of inflation on the regulatory asset base, resulting in a reduction of gearing ratios year-end, with covenant Heathrow remains comfortable. We will have to wait until we're more advanced in the year to address your question.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next set of question coming from Bosco Ojeda from UBS. First question: May traffic in Toronto City is now up versus 2019. Do you think that this is just the good weather? If traffic is only solid during spring summer, would that limit your long-term price expectations?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you for your question, Bosco. What we are seeing is that there is a correlation between weather and mobility in both ways, positive and negative. Better-than-expected weather could have a positive impact. As well, I mentioned before that in April we started the rehabilitation construction workings in the 401. That will have an impact as well. Thank you.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Bosco. Can you give us some color on the I-77 which had very strong revenue transaction in the first quarter?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you for your question again. The I-77 is doing a great performance this quarter with a new record in ADT. We have a great perspective, you know, in the with this asset, and even that we are raising tolls substantially. You know, this quarter, the traffic is performing quite good. Thank you.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Álvaro Navarro from Berenberg. Could you update on the main biddings for this year, the SR 400 in Georgia?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you. Thank you for your question, Chema. Again, we are optimistic in general about the pipeline in the US, focusing the managed lanes, and we are focusing on the managed lanes and traffic revenue risk in the US. As you know, we are pre-qualified for the SR 400 and the I-10, and we expect to submit our bid in the following months. We are active as well in other initiatives in other states, such as the I-77 South and the 495 in Virginia, that are expected to come to the market in the following months. Thank you.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next set of questions coming from Augustin Cendre from Stifel. First question: Budimex is showing strong performance at the revenue margin level despite weak Polish construction indicators. Could you please elaborate on the current market environment in the country?
Iñaki Garcia (Management Team)
Thank you. This is Iñak again. Well, Budimex has a very good backlog. I mean, remember that last year it reached a record and beat this record. Also as we mentioned several times, I mean, it's a very healthy, very healthy backlog. I mean, roads and rails particularly. Regarding... So, I mean, we believe that the profitability comes from these projects. Remember also that last year there was a rise in the cap for the indexation in the public contracts, in the roads. Also after several months of discussion, also in the rail sector, I mean, this gap from 5% limit to 10% has been raised.
This is also a good lever for profitability. Regarding the weak indicators, we believe that there are funds, I mean, for all the infrastructures that Poland needs. During this time, we are seeing that the national government is giving bridge financing, I mean, to this project. We are not seeing a big stop on the bidding. Also we are diversifying the business. I mean, we are doing more things in the energy business. We are doing more things on building. I mean, we see still the huge potential for the country in the construction business. Thank you.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Augustine. On energy and mobility, you previously mentioned that you want to explore new opportunities. Could you please give us a flavor of the opportunities you see in the market?
Alejandro Veramendi (Head of Financing Department)
Hello, everybody. This is Alejandro Veramendi, the CFO of the Energy Infrastructure and Mobility division. As you know, the division was created in 2021. Since then, we have a 50 megabytes photovoltaic project in Spain, and we have two transmission lines in Chile, one in construction and one in operations. We have recently signed an agreement for additionally 100 megawatts photovoltaic plant in the south of Spain. The strategy will be focused on generation, maybe PV plants, onshore wind and storage. In the main countries for Ferrovial, that mainly would be U.S., Spain and Poland, where we have signed a JV with Budimex. On transmission line, we would be focused mainly in Chile and the U.S.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next set of question coming from Filipe Leite from CaixaBank BPI. First question: Do you still see as possible a tariff increase at 407 ETR during this year, or more probably only during next year?
Iñaki Garcia (Management Team)
Thank you, Philip, for your question. As I mentioned before, the decision to raise tolls is only economical. We are monitoring the performance of the asset and running our internal analysis, and we will raise a toll when we see economic value. Thank you.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Philip. What major projects in your pipeline should be awarded during the upcoming six to nine months?
Iñaki Garcia (Management Team)
Yeah. Thank you for your question again. As I mentioned before, we are pre-qualified for the SR 400 in Georgia and the I-10 in Louisiana, and we are expecting to submit our bid in the following months. Thank you.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Last question from Philip. Why the EBITDA margin of energy, infrastructure and mobility was below last year, below 4% in the first quarter 2023 versus 5% in the first quarter 2022? Should we see it as a normalized margin going forward, or do you expect better margins in the upcoming quarters?
Alejandro Veramendi (Head of Financing Department)
Hello, everybody. Again, this is Alejandro Veramendi. Yes, well, the EBITDA in the division is very, very small, so it's very sensitive to anything. Basically it would be because as we are growing, or through bidding, this would be mainly due to higher bidding costs. What we expect in the future is obviously being successful and having a higher EBITDA.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next set of questions coming from Patrick Rousset from Goldman Sachs. First question. On I-66, you mentioned you see typical ramp-up performance thus far. In how far would you see the Dallas Forward maintenance history as good guides for the further I-66 traffic progression? Is the ATR per pax thus far in line with your expectations, or is this going to make a difference versus Dallas?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you for your question, Patrick. I think that when Ernesto mentioned that we are in a typical ramp up means that we are observing that the users are getting used to when we set up in the highway, and everything progress in a adequate way. Compared to Dallas, you know, I think that here in Washington there's one advantage compared to Dallas, that the users are, you know, They don't need to get used to pay tolls because they have several tolls, you know, in the area. This I think that is a quite advantage for D.C. compared to ACTC compared to managed lanes. It's the only information that I can provide you about this.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Patrick. 407. I believe you mentioned in your intro you saw a continuation of the sequentially improving traffic trends on the 407 ETR in April. How long would you want to monitor such improved performance before seeing a favorable trade-off between Schedule 22 payments and toll hikes?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you for your question. So I think that we will monitor, you know, the trends and the traffic performance and the patterns of the user at the time that is necessary to make the right decision. As I said before, we will make the right decision to raise the toll when it makes economic sense.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Elodie Rall from JP Morgan. Regarding the listing process, do you envision having three listings in place in mid-term, for example, Spain, Netherlands, and the US? Is that realistic?
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Yeah. Thanks, Elodie. Well, midterm, yes. I mean, the thing is that when you look into any proper model and you look into the results and cash generation that our U.S. assets and Canadian assets will provide, the expectation that in 10 years the U.S. will dominate absolutely, right? That will dictate what we, what we do, right? Midterm, yes, it's natural to have the 3, but I mean, in the long term, the U.S. should dominate.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Robert Price from Insight. Any risk the Spanish government could take legal action to stop moving the listing from Spain?
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Thanks, Robert. According to our external legal advisor, no, there's no risk.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next set of questions coming from José M. Arroyas from Santander. First question, I-66. Can you share how heavy vehicle traffic is performing and what pricing policy for heavy vehicles Ferrovial is applying?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you for your question, José Manuel. What is good in this asset, in the I-66, is that we have the freedom to set the multipliers of the heavy trucks. Even that we can free this multiplier, we can set different types of vehicles as well. That give us some flexibility to optimize the revenue through the toll rate.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from José Manuel. Can you update us on your thoughts on the extension project for I-77 managed lane that Ferrovial proposed to the grantor, and also share your thoughts on the possibility that Ferrovial secures the I-270 managed lane in Maryland that Transurban has abandoned?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you for your question again. Let's go for I-77 South. Now it is on the study and it will take at least 12 months just to see if it's going to be in the market or not. There's nothing I cannot add here. In terms of Maryland and the process with Transurban, we don't have any news from the DOT after this decision, so we need to wait till receive any information about that just to give our opinion.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next set of question coming from Graham Hunt from Jefferies. First question: How has customer feedback been for the early months of operation for the I-66? Have there been any technical challenges with tolling? How do you see commuters responding to the dynamic tariffs relative to expectations?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Yeah. As Nestor said, we are ramping up. Ramping up means that we everyone is learning. We are learning with, to operate the highway as well that the users are getting used to the new set in the highway. I didn't see any big problem here. You know, everything is going smoothly as we expected, the commuters are responding quite well to the dynamic tariffs because it's something that they experienced before in other toll roads in the area.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Graham. If the appeal process for Heathrow fails, are there any other options for Heathrow to address issues it sees with the regulatory framework? Does Ferrovial, as you say, remain as attractive long-term investment if the appeal fails?
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Thanks, Graham. Well, basically, if the CMA appeal does not work, it would be on the hand of the CAA to correct any of the errors what we have mentioned. No other avenue that we envision at the moment. Right. We'll have to wait until the CMA appeal is over for me to answer the other question. No comments until the CMA appeal is over.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Next question from Victor Acitores from Societe Generale. What was the first quarter traffic in 2023 versus the first quarter in 2019 in Texas Managed Lanes?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you, Victor, for your question. We provide this information in all the packets that we send to the market. Okay, I can read it for you. You know, the NTE compared with 2019, we are over 13.1%. The NTE 35W over 2019 levels on 12.9%, and LBJ Express is lagging compared with 2019 in minus 9.8%. Thank you.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Sorry, we were waiting for last questions here. Nicolás Mora again from Morgan Stanley. NTE 35W, you've talked of the possibility for an early opening of Segment 3C before end June. Considering we are already mid-May, how likely is this? How much works are needed to get here?
José Maria Velao (CFO)
Thank you for your question, Nicolás. Yeah, you're right, we're in mid-May, but one month in construction works is matters. We cannot give you any probability of success. What I can assure you that is we are doing a great effort with our construction company to accelerate and try to open earlier than we expected.
Silvia Ruiz (Head of Investor Relations)
Okay, there is no more questions. Thank you for being with us.
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Well, thanks a lot guys for being with us. I mean, we think this has been a great set of results with very positive traffic trends. We're looking forward to meeting you in a short time. Thank you. Bye.