Ferrovial - Q3 2022
October 27, 2022
Transcript
Silvia Ruiz (Director of Investor Relations)
Good afternoon, everybody. This is Silvia Ruiz speaking, and I would like to welcome you to Ferrovial's conference call to discuss the financial results for the third quarter of 2022. Just as a reminder, both the results, report, and presentation are available to you on our website. As in previous results, and although main restrictions to mobility have been lifted, we would like to highlight that the financial information included in our report is still impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak. Given the uncertainty regarding the speed and the extent of the full resumption in activity, it is not possible to predict how the health crisis will affect Ferrovial's group information and performance in 2022. In addition, the uncertainty caused by the Ukraine-Russia crisis is affecting global markets. Ferrovial will continue to closely monitor trading conditions and further evidence of wider economic impact.
I am joined here today by Ernesto López Mozo, our CFO, and the CFOs of the different business divisions. If you have any questions, you may ask them through the forum included in the webcast. During the Q&A session at the end of this call, we will be reading out your questions and who they are from. With this, I will hand over to Ernesto. Ernesto, the floor is yours.
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Thanks, Silvia, and hello, everybody. Okay, we are going to review the results down to the EBIT level. I mean, the full financial results for the year will be discussed in February. I mean, starting with the overview of the first nine months with toll roads, we have seen very strong revenue growth in all the assets. I mean, the traffic has performed very well during the quarter, with September showing good performance, AM peaks coming back, and in general, that flowing into the revenues and EBITDA growth. Of course, this has also been helped by the strong currency, the US dollar.
The 407 ETR also showed similar patterns with traffic improving along the quarter along the general trend of recovery since Toronto reopened. Also the results are helped by a stronger Canadian dollar. In airports, we also saw very strong performance during the summer, and also with the improvement of operational and quality service during the quarter. Construction managed the inflationary pressure, keeping stable margins. The important thing is that construction is delivering infrastructure that is going to create a lot of value. Therefore, the recent developments, like the I-66 reopening, is thanks to that excellent management and acceleration of production. The I-66 opened in advance a 9-mile segment. We're really encouraged by the initial data we are seeing.
Of course, we will be publishing data in 2023. We won't publish data until the full segments are opened. Cintra Ferrovial pre-qualified for the SR400 in Georgia. We're looking forward to this process. In terms of strategy, we can say we completed the services divestment with the agreement to sell Amey, and well, this should close in the coming weeks, months. In terms of new business opportunities, we achieved in June the financial close of the New Terminal One at JFK, an achievement that shows the quality of the asset and the project in an environment where financial close are rare. Also, we completed the acquisition of Dalaman International Airport. Our cash position is very solid with EUR 1.1 billion. We've been consuming cash for some very good reasons.
Investment into value-creating projects like the I-66 and the New Terminal One at JFK, Dalaman acquisition, and of course, this is causing the working capital and cash out consumption, some construction in the delivery of these projects. Last but not least, we continue with shareholder remuneration with dividends and buybacks. In terms of ESG, we are advancing, performing in our decarbonization KPIs. We will update on that in the year-end results. Okay, moving on to the next slide. We start with the toll roads overview. In like-for-like terms, the growth in revenues and EBITDA is 26.1% and close to 28% with good EBITDA margins.
When we take into account the American roads in the US, I mean, not on like-for-like terms, but the translation terms, you see that the assets revenue growth is close to 50% from 46.5%. EBITDA is growing at 48.2%. The distributed dividends in the US and LBJ. The main new toll roads that we're looking forward to the opening, we have the I-66, as I said, one segment was already open. We expect to close at year-end and the construction and open for full operations in 2023. We still have EUR 180 million pending to invest here. Another very exciting project is the I-35W segment 3C. It's close to 7 miles.
It's an addition to the 35 West, and we still have to invest EUR 70 million and expect opening in September 2023. Moving to the next slide, we go into the 407 ETR. Here we see traffic growing strongly vis-à-vis 2021, 38% growth in VKT terms. Revenue is also 35% and EBITDA 39.2%. Average revenue per trip is going up thanks to longer average trip length. This is mainly helped by trips from the eastern part of the concession of the 407. This is an area that has room for growth in Toronto going forward.
In terms of financial position, the company has a strong liquidity, no significant maturities ahead in 2022 and 2023, and it distributed for the full equity CAD 200 million in the third quarter. At the October board meeting, an additional dividend of CAD 350 million was approved. It doesn't show in our accounts yet, of course. In terms of the Schedule 22 and the force majeure event, there have been questions regarding the agreement with MTO, in particular, if the agreement imposed restrictions on the ability of 407 ETR to raise tariffs. The answer is very simple, no. There is none in the agreement. Therefore, it comes down to an economic decision. 407 ETR will raise tariffs when it makes economic sense.
The agreement is available in 407 ETR's website if you need to check. The other question we were getting is when does the force majeure event end? There are two conditions. If either of them are met, the force majeure event will terminate. One is if the 407 raises tariffs. The other is if average peak hour traffic reaches the average peak hour traffic for the period of 2017 through 2019. 407 does not provide data on peak hour traffic. It has chosen to communicate average traffic as a good proxy to follow for assessing the duration of the force majeure event. Average traffic is likely to recover ahead of peak traffic. If we move to the next slide, we see the traffic patterns compared to 2019.
I mean, the four oh seven released results some days ahead, and therefore this is no news. It's good to see the trend. In particular, I would like also to look at the graph of the return to the office. I mean, it's low. It's very low compared to other areas where we operate, but the trend is clearly there. September was probably around 32%. October first days weeks is around 34%. Okay, there's still this is low compared to other areas where we operate. Toronto reopened much later than other cities and has had a slower start, but the trend is improving. In terms of the economy ahead, I mean, we have shown here some forecasts from the Conference Board of Canada and Statistics Canada.
Even in an uncertain macroeconomic scenario, they, I mean, these institutions expect to still grow in real GDP, CPI to moderate, household income to grow, and employment also should perform well. Okay, I mean, the area is looking more resilient than maybe others in other parts of the world. Okay, moving on to the next slide, we go into the Dallas-Fort Worth managed lanes. Here I would like to focus on different patterns. I mean, the first one is the, let's say, pattern inside the quarter. As we can see in all the roads, improvement in traffic was clear with September being stronger. NT clearly stands out and is having more mandatory modes due to congestion.
When we look into LBJ, you have to bear in mind that the comparison to 2019. 2019 had flattering numbers in this last part of the summer and also in the fall, as we will see. Because, I mean, one of the competing roads to LBJ started works, another one that was a feeder opened. This was a comparison that probably does not resemble properly what the traffic evolution is. But we can see the improvement in the quarter. That's clear. Also in the table below, we can see the growth vis-à-vis last year.
Of course, the LBJ still has works on the eastern connection, and the works there are at high levels, and people are avoiding the corridor. A similar story in terms of works regards the segment three, and regarding segment three C, it's affecting 35 west. We are checking that usual drivers are avoiding that corridor, and that is affecting traffic. Traffic that, in any case, keeps performing very well with a high proportion of heavies. We show there a picture of how three C is affected by works. Okay. When we look into willingness to pay in the region, we see the growth in revenue per transaction of the different roads. All of them clearly above inflation.
Inflation that at the beginning of the year was at 7%, and that was the upgrade or the uplift in the cap that was applied. Okay? Still performing really well. If we move to the next slide, we can see that the revenue outperformance compared to the pre-pandemic levels is huge, and it happens in all the roads. In particular, the last one, the I-77, I will cover later because it's also improving and showing excellent performance above our expectations. Moving into the next slide, we can see Dallas-Fort Worth news and the influx of new businesses remain. I mean, you see Wells Fargo is building a new corporate campus, probably with 4,000 workers.
Goldman Sachs is expanding to Dallas as well, office space for 5,000 workers. Oneworld Alliance headquarters will relocate from New York into Fort Worth. The area keeps attracting businesses from all across the country. When you look into the drivers for future growth, that's something we need to keep insisting, given that this reflects on much more value going forward, is the population growth and employment growth. Okay. Moving into the next slide to cover the I-77, it is clearly growing, maybe even faster in terms of revenues and EBITDA than the rest, right? It's catching up in terms of revenue per transaction or per mile with other roads.
The area is also growing well, and the high revenue per transaction that was mentioned is 43.9% growing compared to last year. In terms of regional update, again, this one continues to grow. Population expected to grow 1.6%, and Charlotte's population is set to surge by 47% from 2010 to 2030. Okay. Another area of growth where we are well-positioned. Moving into airports, I'll start with Heathrow.
I mean, Heathrow results were out yesterday, so probably you've seen the traffic performance, and well, Heathrow has lifted the expectation for passengers for the year, with a range of between 60-62 million passengers. I mean, of course, inbound leisure has been a main driver of the recovery, but I mean, inbound leisure and business travel is also showing signs of recovery. Business travel in the third quarter that reached 21.5% compared to 28% pre-pandemic. You see that demand to travel is still there.
I mean, the temporary cap on departing passengers that was introduced in July so that all parties around the airport could have the smoother operations will be lifted from October thirtieth. I mean, Heathrow was the busiest European hub this summer, and consumer services the quality improved along this quarter. Everyone in the sector is focusing on building back capacity and scaling up resources. In terms of financial performance, I would like to highlight that Heathrow keeps delevering, and the net debt to the regulated asset base at Heathrow Finance reached 83.7% at the end of the quarter. Okay. Now we are waiting for the CAA's final proposals and we'll comment when they are out. Okay.
Moving into other airports in the next slide, we also see that AGS performed well in the summer. It's Glasgow showing a 23% drop versus 2019 in the third quarter, but clearly improving from a year end and from last year. I'm happy to say that Dalaman that we closed in the summer is showing good performance, strong recovery of traffic, in particular, just close to 7% drop versus the third quarter of 2019. Now you see the UK representing 46% of all passengers, so it's becoming more and more a very attractive destination.
In terms of what I highlighted at the beginning, New Terminal One, very important mention that project is on schedule, and I mean some milestones like the demolition of the green garage and the AirTrain closure currently are underway. In terms of equity contribution, as of September thirtieth, we have injected EUR 34 million. Okay, if we move into construction. We remain with flat margins. Here, clearly, we have to differentiate between the, I mean, two big projects that are dragging margins down but are very important. I mean, the first one is the I-66 that, as I mentioned, is helping us to open a very exciting infrastructure.
The other one is the I-285 that is at the heart of the new projects coming up in Georgia, the SR400 and others. It is helping us really with relationship with contractors in the area. All that experience should be valuable. In terms of how are other parts doing, well, I mean, not on the slide, but you can see in the release that has been filed. Webber that operates in the U.S. is at 3% margins, and Budimex is, well, more than double that. Very good management in an intense environment, complicated projects with fixed price. Delivery is taking place, and that should bring value from infrastructure.
In terms of the backlog, it's also high, and it has some pending items to book, like the subway line in Toronto that should incorporate EUR 2.3 billion. I mean, we're looking forward to that project as well. In terms of cash consumption, yes, the US is still expected to consume cash in the remainder of 2022. In terms of services in the next slide, we completed pretty much the process with the sale of Amey. Some small pieces remain, like mining services in Chile and waste treatment and energy from waste in the UK. A long time to go. I mean, the focus now is not on these sale processes.
These operations will remain, and the idea is to improve their results, in particular, waste management, Chile's doing quite well. In terms of the sale of Amey, some details. You saw the enterprise value of GBP 400 million. In terms of net debt-like items, the main item that was incorporated was GBP 148 million. That is really for pensions. It's a proxy for our pension scheme buyout. I mean, the scheme has a surplus in IAS 19 in technical provisions. It's very well-funded, but clearly, the negotiation implied that we had either to keep that risk for us or take it as a kind of a buyout solution.
Okay, in terms of the final completion, it's subject to regulatory clearances that are expected in 2022. In terms of the capital gain, estimated is around EUR 50 million. This all was disclosed in our communication to the market at the time. If we move on to the cash evolution, we see the different components, I mean, the help from dividends from projects, and then we see the main cash drain that we have. The working capital evolution is related to construction, a little bit in services, but, I mean, construction, the delivery of these projects that I mentioned before is causing this drain. Taxes are mainly related to Poland.
Of course, we have investments and shareholder remuneration are the main causes here. In other financing cash flows, we have here the dividends to minorities in Budimex. We have the deconsolidation of net cash position of businesses that have been sold, have been divested, and then FX, the exchange rate impact. If we move into the closing remarks, we're really seeing very good traffic in this quarter with good trends, a good recovery. Our infra assets are really long-term and they're located in areas that keep growing in countries that are stronger than others. Well, we see that the infrastructure assets are benefiting from inflation. Construction is delivering, and this is very important in this environment.
We look forward to attractive investment opportunities. Our focus, of course, is on complex infra projects in the U.S. In terms of ESG, as I mentioned at the beginning, we're advancing on the roadmap to decarbonize the business, and we'll update in the KPIs at year-end. Also important to be looking to business opportunities from this effort. In terms of remuneration to shareholders, the board approved the second scrip dividend that will take place in November. Thanks a lot for bearing with us in the presentation, and we'll move into the Q&A session.
Operator (participant)
Okay. Thank you very much, Ernesto. Q&A session will begin shortly. Please stay tuned. Okay, let's start with the Q&A session. First set of questions comes from Luis Prieto from Kepler Cheuvreux. First question, how should we think about the cost inflation dynamic on the construction front in 2023? Is it fair to assume a full normalization of margins by 2024, recession allowing?
Iñaki García (CFO of Ferrovial Construction)
Thank you, Luis. This is Iñaki García, CFO of Ferrovial Construction. Yes. I mean, the big part of the huge increase in inflation is already in our backlog. A big part of that will recover in 2022. I mean, remember that is not only in the contracts that have profit, but also in loss-making contracts. This cost of inflation has been already accounted for. For 2023, of course, I mean, there is inflation in the final result of the contract. Because of the percentage of completion, a part of this, much less than in 2022, will be considered.
For 2024, we don't see impact unless, I mean, a very huge impact on inflation that has been covered also in some of the latest contracts I know. My answer will be 2023, small inflation impact. 2024, we don't see inflation impact in this moment. We can keep the guidance of 3.5% EBIT at the end of the year.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Luis Prieto. Could you shed light on how you will account for cost inflation and/or volatility in your bids for future managed lanes projects like the SR400 in Georgia? How does the approach change in a potential much more adverse economic and financial environment?
Iñaki García (CFO of Ferrovial Construction)
Thank you. This is Iñaki again. In every new contract that we are signing, we are being prudent. I mean, in terms of finding the ways to have this protection through index formulas or considering in our costs whatever escalation of prices that we could have.
Operator (participant)
Next set of questions coming from Sathish Sivakumar from Citi. First question, can you comment on traffic trends into October across ETR and other managed lanes?
José María Velao (CFO)
Hi, thank you for your question. This is Chema from Cintra. We are seeing similar user traffic patterns in October, with no relevant changes. The traffic trend is pointing in the right way, so further information will be provided in the next quarter. Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Citi also. What percentage of order book is inflation protected?
Iñaki García (CFO of Ferrovial Construction)
Iñaki García again. About 80-90% of inflation is protected in our order book. Remember that is not only in the section of formulas that you have in Spain or in Poland, but also kind of contracts. The type of contracts that you have. In some of them you have caps, in some others some materials are included, and in some others, I mean, there are clauses that in the moment they are bidding you know exactly, I mean, which prices can be closed. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Next question coming from Ana Greco from BBVA. Following Naturgy's recent decision to call and not replace its non-call 2022 hybrid, could you please provide any color as to what options you may be considering at the moment regarding your own EUR 500 million, 3.124% hybrid bond?
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Yeah, thanks, Ana. Well, I mean, the purpose of having a hybrid bond is that it sits nicely in the capital structure, right? I mean, it's a hybrid, it's a subordinated, deeply subordinated issue, right? I mean, we would be looking at the different alternatives. If calling of the bond is too expensive at the time, we would extend, and we would look forward to other opportunities. I mean, after 2023, you can be calling that recurrently, so we would be looking at other opportunities. As I said, it sits very nice in the capital structure. Okay.
We will be considering all the different opportunities that there are, issue a new one, calling it with cash, or the most likely probably would be in this current environment of uncertainty to keep it because it has value from its quasi-equity characteristics.
Operator (participant)
Next set of questions coming from Robert Johnson from BNP. First question, regarding the 407 force majeure agreement, Slide 5 of the presentation stated that average traffic is as good an indicator for the expiry of the Schedule 22 waiver as peak hours traffic. Ernesto subsequently said that average traffic is likely to recover ahead of peak traffic. The two statements seem inconsistent. Could you please clarify which is correct?
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Hi, Robert. Thanks for the question. Well, basically the 407 ETR does not disclose peak hour traffic. I mean, this is very sensitive for commercial reasons, right? If you are not going to release that for commercial reasons, probably for the public, the worst thing is to provide the most readily available traffic that is the average one. The reason I'm saying it's as good a proxy is because weekend traffic has recovered more than the other one. Of course, it's true that all the growth now is coming from the acceleration of the weekday traffic, right? I mean, it's, I would say, prudent to say because it would lead to maybe an earlier date.
That's the reason why we think it's a good proxy, and it's prudent. Okay, that's maybe a little bit inconsistent, as you say, but it's probably the right way to proceed if you don't want to provide the peak hour traffic.
Operator (participant)
Next question from BNP. By how much was average peak hour traffic below the 2017-2019 average level during September?
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Thanks, Robert. We don't provide this information. As I mentioned, it's commercially sensitive.
Operator (participant)
Last question from BNP. Concerning the duration of the force majeure agreement, is there any time limit? Is it feasible that the force majeure event will still be deemed valid if peak traffic has not recovered to the 2017-2019 average level by, let's say, 2030?
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Yeah. Thanks, Robert. I mean, you can check the agreement, as I mentioned. It's in the website. I mean, there's two conditions, and they are not time related, so there's no time limit. Of course, I mean, probably things will move much faster than the days you are suggesting.
Robert Joynson (Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Next set of questions coming from José Manuel Arroyas from Santander. First question, 407 ETR. When you look at the traffic patterns during the day in 407 ETR, how far is traffic from the 2019 level at different times of the day? In particular, with the increase in e-commerce, is there upside to increased tariffs during the midday hours of the day?
José María Velao (CFO)
Thank you for your question, José Manuel. This is Chema from Cintra. As Ernesto said, we cannot provide any information about peak hours for commercial because it's commercially sensitive information. In the end, but what we can see, as you see in the presentation, the performance in this quarter is quite good, mainly driven by the workdays and the AM peak. We are in the right direction. In the case of the e-commerce, what is important here is how is the evolution of the light traffic. The e-commerce is important, but the light traffic is key for the workdays and the peak hours. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Next question from José Manuel Arroyas. NT and LBJ, can you update us on the liquidity situation of these two entities? How much cash is available for dividend distribution in the second half 2022?
José María Velao (CFO)
Okay. The performance of these two entities is quite good. The cash at the end of the year will depend on the traffic performance in the last quarter. We can say that the liquidity is in line with the performance of the asset. We are expecting, if everything goes well, more than $100 million of dividends in the two entities for the end of the year. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Next set of questions coming from Marcin Wojtal from Bank of America. First question: When is the soft cap for U.S. managed lanes going to be updated for 2023, and what revision do you anticipate?
José María Velao (CFO)
Thanks for your question, Marcin. The soft cap will be escalated by CPI in January 2023, with the CPI at the end of the year, the December, compared with the December of the previous year. It will depend on the CPI evolution. We, according to the consensus, will be higher than 6%.
Operator (participant)
Next question, from Marcin. What gives you the confidence Ferrovial is well-positioned to win the SR400 project in Atlanta, considering two other consortia are also competing?
José María Velao (CFO)
Hi, it's him again. We have two competitors. It's gonna be a really good competition in this project. As you know, Ferrovial has an integrated business model with a construction company who is working with us, and we will be able to allocate the risks appropriately and be as competitive as possible in this project. If the competition and the competitors are so aggressive, so it's something that we need to see. We have all the skills and all the things that we need to be competitive in this bid. We are confident.
Operator (participant)
Next set of questions coming from Filipe Leite from CaixaBank BPI. First question: why LBJ traffic recovery is still lagging significantly when compared with the other managed lanes?
José María Velao (CFO)
Thanks for your question, Filipe. It's true that LBJ traffic is lagging compared to 2019 significantly. Compared with NT, well, you can have this perception, but the main reason of this is because we have, as Ernesto mentioned before, construction works in the 635 East. This is taking out volume of traffic, mainly in light traffic, from this area. You know, the 635 East is a good feeder of the LBJ. There's something related to the working from home because the area where LBJ has more exposure to people who can work from home. Mainly, we think that the impact is the construction work that is temporary and will finish in 2024.
We are expecting to see, after this construction is done, how the performance of traffic in this asset evolve.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Filipe. Selling your stake at Heathrow is a possibility or the investment in the airport is core for you?
David Kenny (Director)
David Kenny here from Ferrovial Airports. Look, airports are a core area of Ferrovial's business, and we're committed to growing our airports portfolio. In respect of Heathrow, our strong focus at the moment is on supporting the Heathrow team in delivering a best-in-class major airport in terms of quality and service. Also, we're currently supporting the airport in the process of finalizing a fair and sensible outcome on H7 user charges. We're not considering any change in the approach to our investment in Heathrow in the short term, and that's all totally the case for our other airport investments.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Filipe. Can you give us any visibility regarding pipeline for 6-12 months?
José María Velao (CFO)
Here is Chema again from Cintra. I'm gonna answer this question on the side of Cintra. We are very optimistic with the pipeline in the following 12 months regarding the high complexity projects that are ahead of us in the US. One of these is the SR400. It's part of the yield the Georgia DOT program. The other one is the I-10 in Louisiana. As you know, we are pre-qualified for these two projects. We also have or we expect to bid to present a bid outside the US in a couple of contracts in Chile and Colombia. We have India. As you know, we have an investment in. We have about.
A stake in a company in India. It's called IRB. India is booming in terms of pipeline and we have a lot of projects ahead in the following 12 months. As I said, we are optimistic with this pipeline, and thank you.
Operator (participant)
Last question from Filipe. What is the total cash consumption expected for 2022 from U.S. construction projects? Should we expect also cash consumption in 2023?
Iñaki García (CFO of Ferrovial Construction)
Thank you, Philippe. Iñaki García. Well, cash consumption by the end of 2022 is going to be around EUR 300-350 million. I mean, more or less, this is the numbers. For 2023, our main contracts, I-66 probably will be almost close. 285 will have some consumption. Remember how is our business, no? I mean, on the other hand, we have contracts, new contracts. These contracts usually have advanced payments, so this is part of our life. In 2023, probably there will be further compensation. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Stéphanie D'Ath from RBC. Well done on completing the services division sale. Any other parts of the business you could consider divesting, in particular in construction?
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Yeah, thanks, Stéphanie. No, we're not considering at the moment or having any process to sell any other business. Construction is really being key in delivering the fantastic infrastructure that we can get as a greenfield or brownfield, if I may. No, we're not considering anything. Of course, it's true that we rotate assets and we will receive from time to time interest from buyers that we'll have to consider each at a time. I mean, we are not in the process of divesting anything at the moment.
Operator (participant)
Next set of questions coming from Graham Hunt from Jefferies. First question, can you provide some details on the actions you're taking to mitigate cost pressures in construction projects in the U.S.? Are you seeing material and labor headwinds ease at all?
Iñaki García (CFO of Ferrovial Construction)
Thank you, Graham. Iñaki García again. Well, I think we have explained the main actions that we are taking that they go from hedging some of the materials, more self-performance, also closing long-term contracts, I mean, with subcontractors. These are the things that we can do. I mean, as an example in San Antonio, I mean, we are still in the design phase, but we have closed most of the concrete beams that they will put in place, no? Regarding materials and labor, yes, of course, I mean, we see that cost of labor is increasing, and materials in certain states, I mean, like Texas. I mean, for example, shortage of cement. We are leading this.
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Jefferies. When are the works mentioned around the LBJ expected to be completed?
José María Velao (CFO)
Hi, this is Chema from Cintra. TxDOT assumes a substantial completion in late 2024, so it's expected to be open in 2025.
Operator (participant)
Last question from Jefferies. Can you remind us of the phasing of equity contributions for the JFK for 2022, 2023 and 2024?
David Kenny (Director)
Sure. David Kenny here from Airports again. Can refer you to page 46 of our June investor presentation. Also, just to give you those numbers which appear in that previous disclosure. In 2023, it's around $230 million. In 2024, around $500 million. 2025, $260 million. In 2026, around $70 million. The total commitment for Ferrovial is at around $1.14 billion.
Operator (participant)
Next set of questions coming from Antonio Rodriguez from Oddo BHF. First question, in the first half results presentation, you provided a positive message regarding working capital expectations for full year 2022. Are you still positive in this respect? What should we expect?
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Yeah. Thanks, Antonio. Rather than a positive message, we talked about seasonality, right? Usually the fourth quarter tends to have more inflows in terms of working capital. We'll have to see. As we mentioned in the presentation, we have contracts pending to be incorporated into the backlog at quite a substantial amount compared to what is customary. If that materializes, we will have some inflows from there. At the same time, we also mentioned that in the U.S. we will keep consuming cash from the delivery of these projects, right? We'll have to see how that's balanced, but definitely some seasonal inflows will happen as in what happens normally.
I mean, I won't basically provide any specific guidance on the final figures of the quarter.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Antonio Rodriguez. LBJ traffic, in your estimates, has the impact of the works in feeder motorways been higher in the third quarter than in previous quarters?
José María Velao (CFO)
Thanks for your question, Antonio. We are not seeing more impact. We had to take into account what Ernesto mentioned in his presentation, that we are comparing with 2019 and there are some construction works that were ending in that year, so that there is some distortion, you know, in the comparison. You have to take into account this impact, not only the construction works when we are talking about the comparison of this third quarter with the previous ones. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Next question coming from Caroline Bruwer from Allianz. What is the purpose of keeping the hybrid bond outstanding as you are not getting any equity content from S&P? Given the cost of reset, wouldn't be senior debt cheaper?
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Yeah. Thanks, thanks, Caroline. Well, I mean, S&P is not providing equity content now because we are in a very solid position with a lot of cash, right? I mean, if there were to happen investment opportunities, we could use that cash, then it would make sense. I mean, the purpose of the hybrid, it fits in as a layer in the capital structure that optimizes the capital structure, right? We'll keep an eye on that to see the best outcome. Maybe the best outcome is senior debt, but it's not the fact that it's cheaper implies that it's the best solution, because as I said, it fits well in the capital structure.
Operator (participant)
Next question coming from Nicolas Mora from Morgan Stanley. Traffic dip at NT 35 West in June, July, slowly recovering in August, more strongly in September. Is this due to the phasing of construction work on segment three C? Until when do you expect such works to weigh on traffic?
José María Velao (CFO)
Thanks for your question, Nicolas Mora. This is Chema from Cintra. I think that the traffic that you see is strong, stronger in September is part of the trend that we are seeing in the area. There's better mobility, thanks to the back to the school and back to the work, in September. We are doing our best, working with our contractor.
Iñaki García (CFO of Ferrovial Construction)
In order to mitigate the impact on traffic during this construction at the segment 3C, but you have to understand that our priority is to develop and finish this project on time, which is very relevant for us. Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Next set of questions coming from Elodie Rall from JP Morgan. First question, in contracting, what kind of inflation protection do you have in your contracts? What proportion is fixed cost, and are you using cost-plus fee mechanisms?
Iñaki García (CFO of Ferrovial Construction)
Thank you, Elodie. Yes, I think I mentioned that 80%-90% of our backlog is inflation protected. This protection comes from different kind of potentials, no? I mean, countries like Poland or Spain have indexation formulas, also type of contracts that you have, where, as I mentioned, part of the materials can be covered, including formulas, indexation formulas with your clients. This is the protection you have. Of course, I mean, we have cost-plus contracts, I mean, as you include in your question. This basically, for example, target cost in the UK, but there are other countries that this is not the case, no.
For new contracting of what I mentioned, I mean, the escalation is considered and, in the main big contracts that we are signing, some of them, all of them, or some of them, sorry, are including any protection, no.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Elodie. On the 407, do you think traffic recovery is getting close to a level where you feel comfortable increasing tariffs?
José María Velao (CFO)
Thanks for your question, Elodie. Well, we are seeing that in September, we saw an improvement in overall traffic and ramp, which is positive. But we need to still monitor the traffic because we need to see some. We have to have more visibility of the usage patterns related with working from home. There are some construction works and alternatives that we need to take into account as well. For the moment, we are on the right track, but we need. It's early to say. We need time.
Operator (participant)
Last question from Elodie. On the I-66, could you give a rough idea of the expectations for 2023 revenue and EBITDA?
José María Velao (CFO)
As you know, we cannot provide information for 2023. As Ernesto said, we are receiving information from the first segment that we opened a few months ago. The information that we are receiving is encouraging. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Next set of questions coming from Augustine Cendre from Stifel. First question, will the losses at Ferrovial Construction Agroman continue in early 2023 as the I-285 project is being finished?
Iñaki García (CFO of Ferrovial Construction)
Thank you, Augustine. Well, the I-285 is not finished by the end of this year. We'll finish mid-next year. As you know, it's a contract with losses, so losses are provided in previous years. The only thing that you can have is internal fees that you cannot provide for, and there will be a small amount of losses coming from this contract.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Stifel also. Why is Budimex Q3 2022 EBIT margin so strong, 7.4% versus 5.8% year-on-year? What drove the division's drop in revenues during the quarter?
Iñaki García (CFO of Ferrovial Construction)
Yes. Well, the Budimex basically some contracts are finishing. Some of the contingencies due to the Ukraine war that were in the contracts have been released at the end of these contracts. Basically this is the main reason. The other one is that the climate in the third quarter has been better than expected. That gives you a better margin, no? Regarding the drop in revenues this quarter compared with the previous is quite similar.
I mean, I don't know if you are referring to the previous year when you know, I mean that there were other businesses like FCC or the real estate business that gave us also some sales. There is no real drop in revenues. With the backlog we have, there is not going to be a drop in the future, no.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Stifel. The airport's top line performance looks strong. How much of that can be attributed to Dalaman?
David Kenny (Director)
Excellent question. Dalaman's the only airport within our portfolio that we consolidate. For that reason, it does account for around 80% of that top line revenue number that you can see.
Operator (participant)
Last question from Stifel. When Schedule 22 resumes, do you intend to recover the tariff growth lost during the COVID-19 crisis, or should we expect a lower rate of increase in line with inflation?
José María Velao (CFO)
Yeah. Once it makes economic sense to raise at all, and we made the decision, the most likely scenario is a fast catch up with inflation. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Sathish Sivakumar from Citi. Can you quantify the impact of currency on earnings given a strong U.S. dollar?
Ernesto López Mozo (CFO)
Yeah, thanks, Sathish. Okay. I mean, since we report down to the EBIT level, I will report to the EBIT level, right? You have two impacts: a positive one on concessions of EUR 32 million in euros equivalent of improvements thanks to the strength of the US dollar, and you have a negative of EUR 10 million in construction. The reason I separate that is because we see construction as temporary, and finalizing these important assets is not something that should be recurrent. I would suggest you to stick to the concessions positive impact of EUR 32 million. As I said, to the EBIT, that is the up to the level we are reporting today.
Operator (participant)
Next set of questions coming from Marcin from Bank of America. First question: Do you anticipate the 407 ETR to distribute any further dividends in calendar 2022?
José María Velao (CFO)
Thanks for your question, Marcin. It's likely to see further dividends, but it's subject to the performance of the asset. The trend is positive. We will see what happen at the end of the year and what is the decision of the board, but we are positive on that. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Marcin also. Can you remind us how 407 ETR, our peak hour was defined for Schedule 22 penalties calculation?
José María Velao (CFO)
Summarizing how it's working, the Schedule 22 is taking into account the 60% of the business days of the year. Inside of this, taking into account this is 60% of business days, the 2 business hours. This, you are setting a threshold with this traffic during these days that I just defined. If you are below this threshold in terms of traffic, is when you have to pay this penalty. I think that is better if you want more detail and understand better the Schedule 22, you have the provision in the 407 ETR web, and you can check it out. Thank you.