Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue of $61.5M fell 33% y/y on biofuels price/volume pressure but improved sequentially from Q3’s $51.1M; diluted EPS was $0.06 vs $0.53 y/y and $(0.03) in Q3, with adjusted EBITDA of $4.6M vs $16.8M y/y and $(1.0)M in Q3 .
Management cited chemical customer destocking, lower biodiesel yields, and a late-December turnaround that extended into Q1 as key headwinds; chemical deferred revenue recognition partially offset pressures .
No formal revenue/EPS guidance; 2025 quarterly dividend maintained at $0.06/share; policy uncertainty around IRA 45Z credit remains a pivotal variable for biofuels margins .
No S&P Global consensus EPS/Revenue available for Q4; beat/miss assessment not possible (Values retrieved from S&P Global).*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Chemical segment resiliency: Q4 chemical revenue +19% y/y to $24.8M on deferred revenue amortization; segment gross profit rose to $10.5M from $8.0M y/y .
- Sequential improvement: Revenue rose to $61.5M from $51.1M in Q3; operating income turned positive to $1.6M from $(2.9)M in Q3 .
- Strategic pipeline/capacity: “Our new customer and product pipeline remains robust within our chemical segment… we expect to bring new production capacity online in 2025,” CEO Roeland Polet .
What Went Wrong
- Biofuels compression: Q4 biofuel revenue fell to $36.7M vs $71.2M y/y; segment gross loss $(4.9)M vs profit $16.1M y/y, driven by price declines, lower yields, and downtime .
- Operational reliability: Turnaround and equipment delays hampered throughput; management: “lower-than-expected yields from our biodiesel production… temporarily shut down our plant… late December” .
- Macro/policy headwinds: IRA 45Z credit mechanics still undefined; management continues to seek clarity, limiting forward visibility and pricing power .

Financial Results

YoY comparison – Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023

Metric	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$92.0	$61.5
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$23.4	$2.8
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.53	$0.06
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$16.8	$4.6
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$24.1	$5.6
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)	$20.4	$1.6
Gross Margin (%)	26.2% (calc.)	9.1% (calc.)
EBIT Margin (%)	22.2% (calc.)	2.6% (calc.)

Sequential comparison – Q3 2024 vs Q4 2024

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$51.1	$61.5
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$(1.2)	$2.8
Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.03)	$0.06
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$(1.0)	$4.6
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$0.4	$5.6
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)	$(2.9)	$1.6
Gross Margin (%)	0.7% (calc.)	9.1% (calc.)
EBIT Margin (%)	-5.6% (calc.)	2.6% (calc.)

Segment breakdown (Revenue and Gross Profit)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Chemical Revenue ($M)	$19.2	$17.9	$24.8
Biofuel Revenue ($M)	$53.2	$33.2	$36.7
Chemical Gross Profit ($M)	$4.7	$3.4	$10.5
Biofuel Gross Profit (Loss) ($M)	$4.0	$(3.0)	$(4.9)

KPIs and Balance Sheet Snapshots

KPI	6/30/2024	9/30/2024	12/31/2024
RINs Held (mm)	2.1; FV $1.1M	5.0; FV $2.6M	3.1; FV $1.8M
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($M)	$115.1	$133.4	$109.5
Capex (period total) ($M)	$5.3 (YTD)	$10.6 (9M)	$14.7 (FY)

Notes: Margins are calculated from reported revenues and income/gross profit as cited above.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Regular Dividend per Share	2025 program	$0.06/qtr indicated for 2024 schedule	$0.06/qtr; 2025 dates set	Maintained
Biodiesel Production Restart Timing	Q1 2025 operations	Turnaround originally planned through Feb 2025	Likely restart end of March 2025 earliest (weather delay)	Pushed out
Revenue/Margins	FY25/Q1-2	None provided	None provided	n/a
IRA 45Z Credit	2025	n/a	Details “mostly undefined” as of Q4 print	Pending clarity

No explicit quantitative revenue/EPS/EBITDA/tax guidance provided in Q4 materials .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (Q-2)	Q3 2024 (Q-1)	Q4 2024 (Current)	Trend
Biofuels pricing and RINs	Low biodiesel/RIN prices; reduced RIN inventory a key EPS driver	Margin pressure; RIN prices contracted; excess market supply vs EPA mandate	Biofuel prices and yields weak; turnaround impacted production	Persistent pressure; awaiting policy support
Production reliability	Extreme winter weather impacted inventories/sales; production issues noted	Unplanned biodiesel infrastructure outage reduced production but resolved by quarter-end	Turnaround late Dec through most of Q1; equipment delays and reliability issues	Elevated downtime, improving post-turnaround
IRA 45Z policy clarity	Anticipated from Jan 1, 2025	Expect improvement with clarity on 45Z	Details “mostly undefined”; company advocating for clarity	Key external variable
Chemicals demand/pipeline	Mixed: lower ag/energy prices; some coatings strength; new product sold	Sluggish end-markets; margin pressure; robust BD activity	Robust pipeline; new capacity targeted in 2025	Constructive medium-term
Deferred revenue impact	n/a	n/a	$5.5M amortized helped chemical revenue	One-time tailwind in Q4

Management Commentary

“We experienced a notable volume decline, partly due to some destocking among our chemical customers and partly due to lower-than-expected yields from our biodiesel production… we temporarily shut down our plant for a turnaround in late December… extended through the majority of the first quarter” — CEO Roeland Polet .
“Our new customer and product pipeline remains robust within our chemical segment… bring new production capacity online in 2025” — CEO Polet .
On policy: the blender’s tax credit expired 12/31/24 and was replaced by IRA 45Z effective 1/1/25, but “details… remain mostly undefined”; management is advocating for near-term clarity .

Q&A Highlights

No earnings call transcript was available for Q4 2024; no Q&A content to summarize [ListDocuments returned 0 transcripts for period].

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q4 2024 were not available for FutureFuel; as a result, a beat/miss assessment versus consensus cannot be determined (Values retrieved from S&P Global).*

Where estimates may need to adjust:

Chemical segment outperformed on deferred revenue recognition; without this tailwind, underlying run-rate remains sensitive to end-market demand and pricing; models may adjust segment mix and margin assumptions .
Biofuels margins and volumes likely remain subdued into Q1 given turnaround timing and 45Z uncertainty; near-term revenue/margin estimates may be revised lower until policy clarity or production normalization emerges .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Mix shift: Chemicals provided relative stability and a Q4 gross profit cushion, while biofuels remained the swing factor; sequential improvement in consolidated profitability signals operational normalization post-Q3 disruptions .
Near-term overhang: IRA 45Z mechanics and credit values are still undefined, keeping biofuels pricing/margins uncertain and limiting forward visibility .
Operational execution is the lever: Turnaround work should enhance reliability and may reduce later scheduled outages, a prerequisite for margin stabilization in biofuels .
Capital deployment steady: Regular dividend maintained at $0.06/share for 2025; cash ended year at $109.5M even after a $2.50 special dividend in April 2024, supporting ongoing capex for new chemical capacity .
Watch catalysts: 45Z policy clarity, evidence of improved biodiesel yields/throughput, and activation of new chemical capacity in 2025 are the likely narrative drivers for estimates and stock sentiment .
Risk balance: Continued biofuel price/RIN weakness or further operational delays could restrain margins; chemical demand softness (ag/energy) remains a headwind despite pipeline strength .

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Appendix: Additional data tables

Full-year (FY) snapshot

Metric	FY 2023	FY 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$368.3	$243.3
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$37.4	$15.5
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.85	$0.35
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$35.0	$17.6
Cash & Equivalents (year-end, $M)	$219.4	$109.5
Capex ($M)	$6.0	$14.7

Non-GAAP notes: Adjusted EBITDA excludes non-cash items including stock-based comp, unrealized derivative gains/losses, and other non-operating income/expense as defined by the company; reconciliation to GAAP provided in the release .

Footnote: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

FutureFuel Corp. (FF)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary