FHN Q2 2024: Deposit Costs Rise, NII Outlook Flat
- Defensive Deposit Management: FHN is actively defending its customer relationships by adjusting deposit pricing—such as matching competitive offers and migrating over $1 billion in balances—ensuring a stable funding base despite a competitive environment.
- Operational Efficiency & Margin Resilience: The bank’s focus on controlling expenses and targeting positive operating leverage by 2025 positions it to improve profitability as economic conditions stabilize and potential rate cuts enable stronger loan pricing.
- Disciplined Capital Allocation: FHN’s opportunistic share repurchase strategy underlines its commitment to returning excess capital to shareholders while maintaining a robust balance sheet, bolstering investor confidence.
- Rising deposit pricing pressures: Executives noted an increasingly competitive environment for deposits, with significant promotional offers driving up deposit costs as they match higher rates to defend customer relationships.
- Credit quality concerns in CRE: There was an increase in nonperforming loans driven predominantly by the office segment of the CRE portfolio. Management acknowledged that while within expectations, this trend could pressure future credit performance and necessitate higher reserve levels.
- Flat net interest income expectations and slowed loan growth: Guidance for the back half of the year remains flat to down 2% amid seasonality and tepid loan demand, suggesting margin pressures if the economic environment does not improve.
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Deposit Pricing
Q: Explain deposit pricing competition drivers?
A: Management described how an increase in special deposit offers forced rate adjustments on existing customers, leading to higher deposit costs—with over $1 billion shifting into higher-rate positions—highlighting a competitive environment. -
Operating Leverage
Q: Will operating leverage turn positive next year?
A: Management expects a shift to positive operating leverage in 2025, driven by improved fee and fixed income revenues amid a potential rate cut scenario, though some uncertainty remains. -
Loan Growth
Q: What drives the slowdown in loan growth?
A: The slowdown is largely due to seasonal trends in mortgage warehouse lending and a reduction in CRE fund-ups; refinancing activity might pick up if rates decline further. -
Capital Ratio
Q: Could capital ratio drop to 10–10.5% soon?
A: Management reiterated that the current 11% CET1 ratio will be maintained until clearer economic and regulatory signals emerge, meaning any reduction is likely deferred until 2025. -
Share Buybacks
Q: Will share repurchase activity continue?
A: The bank plans to continue opportunistic buybacks within its current authorization, making decisions based on favorable stock valuations and overall capital management. -
NII Outlook
Q: Does flat balance sheet imply no mix shift?
A: Updated guidance factors in a flat to down 2% net interest income, acknowledging mix shifts and deposit cost pressures that are inherent in a stable balance sheet approach. -
Expense Efficiency
Q: Are expense cuts deferring costs to next year?
A: Management indicated that through operational efficiencies, expenses should remain flat or decline in the second half, without significant costs being pushed into the next period. -
Mortgage Rates
Q: What rate drop is needed for refinancing?
A: Significant rate cuts are deemed necessary to trigger a strong pickup in refinancing activity, as current mortgage rates around 7% do not sufficiently incentivize borrowers, although purchase lending remains solid. -
Fixed Income Outlook
Q: How will fixed income revenue perform?
A: While a more aggressive rate cut could improve fixed income revenues, management remains cautious, expecting only modest enhancements under the current outlook. -
LDR Strategy
Q: How does LDR affect deposit pricing?
A: Rather than strictly managing the loan-to-deposit ratio, the focus is on defending customer relationships by adjusting deposit rates as needed, reflecting a flexible funding strategy. -
NPL Office
Q: What caused the increase in office NPLs?
A: The rise in nonperforming office loans is attributed to higher rates reducing cushions, though strong underwriting and conservative risk management keep overall credit performance within expectations. -
CRE Reserves
Q: Is there flexibility in CRE reserve build?
A: Management believes that current CRE reserves are conservatively set and could be released if improvements occur, especially given limited lease renewals in the office segment. -
Tech Investment
Q: Will tech spending focus on treasury upgrades?
A: Upcoming technology investments are targeting core system improvements, particularly in treasury management and GL, which are key to enhancing client services and operational efficiency. -
Bond Restructure
Q: Will capital be used for bond restructuring?
A: Management dismissed the idea of significant bond book restructuring, explaining that such moves would only shift earnings timing without adding long-term economic value. -
Spot Margin
Q: What was the June spot margin?
A: The spot margin stood at 3.35% as of June, reflecting the current environment in deposit pricing and cost management.
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